NFBC Content Panel: Top 25 Outfielders

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:48 am

Our 15 members of the NFBC Content Panel weighed in with their choices on outfielders and gave us a pretty strong Top 25 list. Here's the composite list from those owners:

1. Alfonso Soriano

2. Carl Crawford

3. Vladimir Guerrero

4. Carlos Beltran

5. Lance Berkman

6. Matt Holliday

7. Grady Sizemore

8. Carlos Lee

9. Ichiro Suzuki

10. Manny Ramirez

11. Jason Bay

12. Bobby Abreu

13. Vernon Wells

14. Jermaine Dye

15. Andruw Jones

16. Johnny Damon

17. Juan Pierre

18. Chone Figgins

19. Gary Sheffield

20. Hideki Matsui

21. Adam Dunn

22. Corey Patterson

23. Alexis Rios

24. Torii Hunter

25. Delmon Young

Here's some interesting facts:

1. Soriano was ranked first by all of the owners except one, who had him ranked THIRD. Carlos Beltran was ranked first by that owner.

2. Carl Crawford was ranked second by all of the owners except four and he ranked as low as fourth once.

3. Vlad ranked as high as second and as low as seventh. Beltran ranked as high as first and as low as seventh. Matt Holiday ranked as high as third and as low as 14th, while Grady Sizemore ranked as high as fourth and as low as 14th.

4. Other wide spreads of note: Bobby Abreu ranked as high as fourth and as low as 16th, finishing 11th from our group; Manny Ramirez ranked as high as fifth and as low as 16th; Ichiro ranked as high as fifth and as low as 14th.

There were plenty of nominees for the final five spots as nobody from picks 21-25 were on every owners' list. Interesting.

Thoughts?

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:55 am

The most interesting thing about the 2007 crop of outfielders is the fall-off after the Top 20 or so. Lots of risk after that.

The people who find diamonds in the rough for their 4th and 5th OFs are going to have a significant edge over the competition.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:56 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

1. Soriano was ranked first by all of the owners except one, who had him ranked THIRD. Carlos Beltran was ranked first by that owner.Gekko, stop messing with the rankings again

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:10 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

1. Soriano was ranked first by all of the owners except one, who had him ranked THIRD. Carlos Beltran was ranked first by that owner.Gekko, stop messing with the rankings again

[/QUOTE]that wasn't me. i has holliday 3rd and sizemore 4th

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:10 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

1. Soriano was ranked first by all of the owners except one, who had him ranked THIRD. Carlos Beltran was ranked first by that owner.Gekko, stop messing with the rankings again

[/QUOTE]naw that was Eddie G. Eddie G hates Sori !

Q

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:18 am

I am the curve buster on Sizemore. There is nothing not to like about him, but I had Beltran, Ramirez, Jones, Bay, Lee, Suzuki, and Abreu ahead of him.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:33 am

Delmon Young over Francoeur Baldelli and Ibanez. Style over substance.

Q

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:54 am

I had Sizemore higher than you Wayne, so I guess I bumped the trend higher too. I had Baldelli 20th and did not list D. Young, Ibanez, or Francouer in the top 25.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:02 pm

WASNT Eddie g on the Soranio pick.Eddie G wasnt on the panel.

MY TOP 3

1 CRAWFORD

2 VLAD

3 BELTRAN

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:42 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

WASNT Eddie g on the Soranio pick.Eddie G wasnt on the panel.

MY TOP 3

1 CRAWFORD

2 VLAD

3 BELTRAN Yep, you're a Soriano Hater!

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:00 pm

Baldelli, They must all like him not to put him into the top 25..... keep him off the list.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 5:46 pm

I had Holliday 4th also. I think 4th to 13th were so even that you could almost have them in any order, though I'd say 4th to 11th if you switched Wells and Ichiro. I had Wells 6th, Ichiro 12th. I just don't see how Ichiro ranks that high.

Baldelli isn't bad but he's just as fringy as some of the other guys 20-25. I think he has as much upside and downside as Rios or Young, for example.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 6:26 pm

I'd lay 5 to 1 odds up to $500.00 (pay $2500) that the flavor of the off-season Holliday doesn't crack the top 10 OF once the 2007 season is over.

We'd have to have a solid evaluation formula to base this on that we both agreed to...but I'm very willing to bet this.

~Lance...Prop bet King!

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:25 pm

I'd love to take that bet, but I have to believe you'll come to your senses in the morning! If not, how would the money be handled? We don't know each other. The Player Ratings listed here in the NFBC would be good enough to use. Holliday's OVR (Overall Rating) of 9.14 was 6th this past season.

[ January 24, 2007, 01:33 AM: Message edited by: Nevadaman ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:46 pm

I'm plenty buzzed...nothing new.

Please show me the formula that creates the ranking you found.

If it agrees with me...we will have a bet.

There are many formulas in baseball...too bad it's not clear-cut like football point scoring. Damn BBQ format.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:48 pm

If you are worried about the money...we can agree on a 3rd party with reputation.

No worries.

~Lance

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:44 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I had Holliday 4th also. I think 4th to 13th were so even that you could almost have them in any order, though I'd say 4th to 11th if you switched Wells and Ichiro. I had Wells 6th, Ichiro 12th. I just don't see how Ichiro ranks that high.

Baldelli isn't bad but he's just as fringy as some of the other guys 20-25. I think he has as much upside and downside as Rios or Young, for example. Agreed in that I see almost no differant what so ever between Baldelli and Rios. The differance may be where they end up in the batting order. Delmon could be the same guy. He may have even more upside. I would say, he does have more risk also. That's why I list Baldelli and Rios above him.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:44 am

Where are NFBC player ratings?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 5:06 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Where are NFBC player ratings? Brian, hit Stats on your team page, scroll to player ratings.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 6:40 am

sbm- love to read your posts, both here and wcoff. i do trust you and am thinking about taking your bet. how about 5-1 on $100 bucks? i am thinking of protection on injury- for both sides- because in my opinion that is all that stops me from winning. how about 150 games for holiday and 150 games for 2 of top of. i will have to trust you on that one. at end of year you say- ramirez played only 120 games- but look at what he was doing? might not be doable- so i may do it anyway. your thoughts? i am signed up in chicago under headhunters and wcoff as ptnr to bald is beautifull. you can private me. thanks, mike

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:37 am

Hi SportsBettingMan,

I will take that bet! Let's use ESPNs Rating system (much better than the NFBCs)

Or we can do it with any formula. I have one I rate players on and will share w/ you if you are serious

Chris

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 10:26 am

Lance, As Doughboys said, Go to your team page, hit Stats and scroll to Player Ratings. I don't know exactly how they are derived, but they seem close enough to me. (At least the hitters - not the pitchers!) Compare the results with your own list and see if it works for you. Just trying to simplify things with an objective source! If anything, this will hurt Holliday somewhat as I don't think BA is given enough weight. What third party do you suggest?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:20 pm

I think the NFBC rating is too heavy on SB. Eric Byrnes rated too high for my taste. Manny seems too low. (negative number for SB)

I'll look at ESPN's...did you have a link?

I'm not too hard to please...so we can find one that is more agreeable.

Min games or AB? I like the "void" if Holliday or a couple top OF go down with injury.

If possible...I'd rather not use a third party to hold the money...but can understand if you wanted it secured. (It will be tied up for 9 plus months). I trust Greg, Rob B. (Teds Cracked Head), but don't like to burden them with my side bets. I'm no welsh, and I'm not going anywhere, and have extreme honor in my word as a gambler...but that's just hayseed if you'd rather secure it in a 3rd party's account. I understand.

We could set aside a "tracking" thread for fun.

I'm interested in your formula, Chris, but Nevadaman was first to post interest, and my max loss is $2500.00, so there is only $500 in bets to be divided up, (nevadaman, headhunters, Spy)and none if he goes the whole 500.

We just need to hammer out a few details...

Min games/AB?

3rd party or not, and whom?

Voiding list of top OF...if two or more from list do not meet min games/AB...bet is void???

OR...higher risk...no min. games/AB. If a bunch of top OF go down...good for you...if Holliday goes down...good for me.

Ranking would be based on MLB 2007 season stats...not magazine rankings toward 2008.

Let me know what works...this will spice things up.

~Lance

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:37 pm

Lance/bettors - I am available to hold the wagers if you need a known third party

Lance - why do you say SB are ranked to heavy? It is one of five categories. In addition Holliday only had ten last year, so its not much of the reason he rates so high (not nearly as important as the fact he plays half his games in Colorado)

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:43 pm

I trust you too, Captain!

I found the link to the ESPN rankings...Holliday #1...I'll pass on that one. (Ha!)

I'm leaning toward no voiding of wager if possible. If injured...bad break. I'll send Perry the money and use the NFBC ratings if no-voiding.

~Lance