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Not trying to be a jinx, but here is what I am thinking with regards to some players (certainly not all). Those in the "won't" category may hit only 3-5 below the levels I mention. If I can find this thread in October, we will see how I did.

Won't hit 40 HR this year:

Chris Davis
Nelson Cruz
Bryce Harper
Josh Donaldson
Mike Trout
Albert Pujols
Carlos Gonzalez
Edwin Encarnacion (ok, didn't hit 40 in 2015, but close)

Best chance to hit 40 in 2016:

Jose Bautista
JD Martinez

Won't hit 35 HR this year:

Yoenix Cespedes
Manny Machado
Alex Rodriguez

Best chance to improve on the 35 he hit last year:

Todd Frazier

Won't hit 30 HR this year:

Alex Rodriguez
Paul Goldschmidt
Mark Teixeira
Jose Abreu
Joey Votto (again, didn't hit 30 last year, but close)

Best chance to hit 30 this year:

Matt Carpenter
Adrian Gonzalez
Brian Dozier
Lucas Duda
Jay Bruce
Curtis Granderson

Hitting 25 HR is about right:

Kris Bryant
Kyle Seager
Brian McCann
Justin Upton
Matt Kemp
Luis Valbuena (will need at least 450 AB)
Colby Rasmus (Same)

Not going to hit 25:

Joc Pederson
Kole Calhoun
Ryan Braun

Not going to hit 20:

Carlos Correa
Starling Marte
Hanley Ramirez
AJ Pollack

Going to crack 20:

Mookie Betts
Evan Longoria

[quote="Edwards Kings"]
Won't hit 40 HR this year:

Chris Davis
Nelson Cruz
Bryce Harper
Josh Donaldson
Mike Trout

Interesting proposition that none of these guys hit 40 dingers. I'd say 2-3 of these guys do. All have a legitimate shot at it. Trout and Harper have youth on their side and every year should be getting more powerful. Nellie hit 43 last year playing hurt the last month, Safeco doesn't suppress homers like it used to and he's sandwiched again in a lineup with good left handed hitters around him in a division with loads of LH starting pitchers that he likes to feast on. Davis is capable of hitting check-swing home runs in Camden Yard. Plus, it looks to me that Donaldson has learned a few tricks from his teammate Bats, and I don't know why that should disappear.

I admit my analysis is not original. Rather there was a page in the Forecaster that I thought was interesting written by Matt Cederholm. The proposition was, given players with similar profiles, and whose HR per FB rates were higher than the norm (i.e. the 50th percentile) are at risk of (wait for it Dan) regression. Davis for example had a HR/FB rate of nearly 30%. If, based on his power/hard contact profile, the norm is 19.4% (trusting BaseballHQ's numbers as I have none better) for hitters with similar profiles, then "odds" are there will be a little regression to the norm. Nellie is another example and probably even more at risk of not hitting 40. His HR/FB was 30.4%. Add his age and home ball park...

I am not saying they won't still be very valuable and hit 30-35 HR, but I do not think they will quite achieve 2015 levels.

I'll give it a try Wayne.....

Best chance to hit 40 in 2016:

Yoenis Cespedes
Lucas Duda


Best chance to hit 30 this year:

Curtis Granderson
David Wright
Travis d'Arnaud
Michael Conforto


Hitting 25 HR is about right:

Neil Walker


Going to crack 20:

Asdrubal Cabrera


Not going to hit 20:

The National League against the Mets Pitching Staff
The entire Braves team

Glenneration X wrote:I'll give it a try Wayne.....

Best chance to hit 40 in 2016:

Yoenis Cespedes
Lucas Duda


Best chance to hit 30 this year:

Curtis Granderson
David Wright
Travis d'Arnaud
Michael Conforto


Hitting 25 HR is about right:

Neil Walker


Going to crack 20:

Asdrubal Cabrera


Not going to hit 20:

The National League against the Mets Pitching Staff
The entire Braves team

Hmmmm....I think even I could discern a bit of bias in your calculations and I have not even seen the numbers.

How about this...Mets finish third in the NL East in 2016!

Touche!

Edwards Kings wrote:I admit my analysis is not original. Rather there was a page in the Forecaster that I thought was interesting written by Matt Cederholm. The proposition was, given players with similar profiles, and whose HR per FB rates were higher than the norm (i.e. the 50th percentile) are at risk of (wait for it Dan) regression. Davis for example had a HR/FB rate of nearly 30%. If, based on his power/hard contact profile, the norm is 19.4% (trusting BaseballHQ's numbers as I have none better) for hitters with similar profiles, then "odds" are there will be a little regression to the norm. Nellie is another example and probably even more at risk of not hitting 40. His HR/FB was 30.4%. Add his age and home ball park...

I am not saying they won't still be very valuable and hit 30-35 HR, but I do not think they will quite achieve 2015 levels.

Todd says 'regression' can go either way and I understand that.
Regression is an off season word. During the off-season, we use words like regression, value, anomaly.
During the season, we never hear somebody say, "Well Vin, that Joc Pederson surely is regressing".
Then, it's a slump. Or he needs to be sent back to the minors, or benched.
A pitcher never looks at the next batter coming up and think to himself, "I've got Chris Davis coming up, poor regressing sombitch will never hit this pitch."
As a whole, we evaluate the vast upcoming season for a hitter. We take up to 162 different parts and crystal ball it as a whole.
It's difficult.
A season of a Rockies batter facing Clayton Kershaw five times as opposed to zero times is never reckoned.
We have to assume the average. An unknown.
Sticking with Chris Davis, the use of Numerish may be benign.
He had a dismal 2014 without a Therapeutic Use Exemption and including a suspension of 25 games for using the drug anyway.
Obtaining that exemption in 2015, he had a big year while using Vyvanse legally.
Same sort of story for ARod.
With some players, the numbers crunching become secondary.