Ladies and Gentlemen, Start Your Engines

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:52 pm

With the blessing of the boss, I will be posting an essay each Monday (hey, it's still Monday somewhere). As always, I will do my best to address any question or comments throughout the week.

Recent archive:

1-15 Whither an Expert

1-22 Ch, Ch, Ch, Changes

______________________________________________________

Earlier this week, my cohorts and I over at www.FantasyBaseball.com began taking 2007 subscriptions. A potential new customer e-mailed me and asked “Do you guys have a Draft Dominator?” Although I had a feeling I knew what he wanted, I e-mailed back and asked him exactly what a Draft Dominator is? The reply was just as expected, “Software where you can enter your league rules and it tells you exactly who to draft when it is your turn. I used one for football and won my league. You’ll have a new customer if you have the same thing for baseball.”

I figured there were two different ways to respond. What I wrote was something like, “Sorry, but we don’t supply a Draft Dominator. The dynamics of a football draft and baseball draft are like apples and oranges. There is simply too much going on in a draft for even a computer programmed with the most complex algorithms to handle. There’s the question of best player available versus player at a scarce position. There is the power versus speed conundrum. There is the hitting versus pitching balance and finally, there is the starting pitching versus closing dilemma. And even if you could account for all these factors and have a program yield the best possible player at that time, a computer cannot predict or even guess the future, which is an integral part to drafting. However, we at www.FantasyBaseball.com can help you dominate your draft as we do provide a draft tracker equipped with our projections that are updated weekly through the second week in April. We have an archive of strategy pieces second to none in the industry and have a whole bunch more in store for 2007.”

What I should have responded was, “Dude, do you want us to wipe your butt too?” Maybe I am missing it, but there is something wrong about relying on visual basic to draft your fantasy baseball team. Where’s the satisfaction? Where’s the fulfillment? Where’s the challenge?

Suffice it to say I never heard back from the e-mailer. I did hear from someone else that he found his Draft Dominator at another site so good luck to him. Who knows, he may even win one of his 10 Yahoo leagues using it.

I’d like to think no one in the NFBC competes in such a vacuous manner, relying solely on a Draft Dominator, but you never know. I compare my fellow NFBC combatants to race car drivers. We’re out there in the spotlight, driving the car. But it takes much more than a great driver to win the race. Someone needed to design the car and someone else needed to build it. Just like with racing, while all the drivers may not actually design and build the entire car, the very best drivers know a whole lot about each. They’re just not out there making right turns for 200 laps.

This is where my fellow industry experts, uh, information disseminators serve their purpose. Not everyone has the time or clubhouse connections to monitor the comings and goings of all 30 teams, so it is quite useful that some sites provide a news gathering service and inside information. Very few have time or access to delve into the vast array of data that is now collected, so it is very helpful that some sites present original research with respect to player analysis.

But as I suggested a couple of weeks ago, not everyone in the information dissemination business graduated at the top of their class. So how should one separate the wheat from the chafe? With the realization that much of the following is going to come off as an advertisement for my own business interest, I’ll suggest some pointers when investigating if a pay site is worthy of your hard earned money or if a free site is even worthy of your time.

First off, and this may seem obvious but you would be surprised at how many sites are run basically anonymously, find out who the proprietors are and check their credentials. These people are supposed to be helping you be a better fantasy baseball player, it would sure help if they were players themselves. You know how I feel about the term but see if they play in any expert leagues, though the proliferation of the “so-called” expert league has watered down the landscape. The two best know industry leagues are LABR and Tout Wars. LABR was founded by John Hunt of then Baseball Weekly and is famous for the annual Leviathan issue in which the rosters and auction prices are revealed. Tout Wars was originally founded by Baseball HQ’s Ron Shandler and was recently the centerpiece of a wonderful book by Sam Walker of the Wall Street Journal, documenting his trials and tribulations as he competed in the American League competition in the summer of 2004. While it is not completely necessary that the proprietors have won or even fared well in these leagues, it does lend some measure of credibility. For the record, only two participants can claim victories in both LABR and Tout Wars. One is the aforementioned Ron Shandler. The other is Jason Grey, who just happens to be the founder of a little site he called Mastersball, which of course is now FantasyBaseball.com. Other than these industry leagues it also makes sense for the NFBC consumer to use a service that has NFBC experience, if not success. While the gang at CREATiVE SPORTS had a fine run a couple of years ago, only one site has a contributor that devised a strategy so out-of-the-box that the powers that be effected a rules change. The minimum innings pitched rule could be called the Van Hook rule, named after FantasyBaseball.com’s own Perry Van Hook, aka Captain.

The next discerning element has to do with the site’s philosophy when it comes towards player analysis, projection, ranking and valuation. I personally do not put much credence in a site unless it describes their methods in detail. This puts a perspective on the analysis and avails the user the opportunity to agree or disagree with the conclusion. A top 100 list is not worth the bandwidth it is posted on if it is just a list of 100 names in a vacuum. When a site projects a player differently than the norm, it is essential to understand why that site feels that way. Is it a whim or do they have some sort of evidence on which to base their outlying projection?

The final factor I would like to discuss is something at which I and my cohorts at www.FantasyBaseball.com are front and center, and that is accessibility. If you have a question about a specific piece of analysis, can you ask the author a question? Not all sites, very few, in fact, have a means to encourage this type of interaction. When I am not here, I am undoubtedly over at the private subscription forum you know where, making sure all the questions are answered within the promised 24 hour time frame. I’m out in public at Tout Wars, the FSTA, NFBC and the First Pitch Forum sponsored by Baseball HQ. Speaking of which, if you want to find out in person if I am as homely as rumored and live within driving distance of Washington DC, New York City, Boston, San Francisco or Los Angeles, I’ll be a guest speaker at the spring tour of the First Pitch Forums, drop me a line and I can direct you towards the information.

Well gang, that’s enough self-pimping for one week, if not month. I do apologize of this came off too much as an ad, that was not my original intention. My original intention was to comment on the lame aspect of not doing your own due diligence, at least in part, but that was not quite enough to carry an entire essay. Then I remembered that when I spoke with Greg about doing this series of pieces, he encouraged me to plug the site, so I segued and took advantage. Next week we will return to a more analytical topic, namely picking apart a player’s projection. And I won’t mention www.FantasyBaseball.com even once.

Well, maybe once. Twice at the most.

[ January 31, 2007, 12:04 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:03 am

Nice piece Todd... When will the "Draft Dominator" be ready?

Seriously, started to check out your masterball site the other day but didn't follow thru when I saw it was bought out. I think I'll go take another look...

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:35 am

I compare my fellow NFBC combatants to race car drivers. We’re out there in the spotlight, driving the car. But it takes much more than a great driver to win the race. Someone needed to design the car and someone else needed to build it. Just like with racing, while all the drivers may not actually design and build the entire car, the very best drivers know a whole lot about each. They’re just not out there making right turns for 200 laps.

loved the analogy!

Q

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:46 am

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and

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Just teasing, Todd! Your blogs have been and are great!

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:56 am

Todd, So how long does it take after you pay for yor web site to actually get in? From what I've seen so far the old customers of mastersball have been screwed. Can't get into the new web site.

So enough of your pimping your new employer!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 5:28 am

200 "RIGHT" turns? Isn't it LEFT turns?

I'd say a service like FantasyBaseball.com would serve more like a pit crew and spotter...we ultimately make all the moves steering the race car, but the spotter (what's one the horizon/what to watch out for/injuries) and advice from the pit crew (who to start/sit/waiver wire) are very important to us winning the race!

~Lance

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:11 am

I think the pit crew and spotter further the analogy nicely, as opposed to replacing the design and buidling of the car. While there are some who do their own projections, not everyone does. And those that do their own projections likely base their process on some information garnered elsewhere.

As for left turn/right turn I plead ignorant as I am not a fan. I injected a little poetic license and chose right turn because when I am faced with the choice of one or the other, I take a right turn because they are easier.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:24 am

I got my access code to fantasybaseball dot com.

I hope others get thiers as well. It's a shame that I didn't get mine until I made a mention here.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:45 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

I got my access code to fantasybaseball dot com.

I hope others get thiers as well. It's a shame that I didn't get mine until I made a mention here. You are the Rosa Parks of fantasy baseball.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 7:24 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

I got my access code to fantasybaseball dot com.

I hope others get thiers as well. It's a shame that I didn't get mine until I made a mention here. You are the Rosa Parks of fantasy baseball. [/QUOTE]More like the Dirty Brown Towel.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:07 am

I'm honored either way.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:14 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

I'm honored either way. You should be -- welcome back!

With that said, will you be taking Johnny Damon in the 2nd round again this season?

pancho11 · Post by **pancho11** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:27 am

Todd I went on your site to check it out, it seems a year behind, everything says 05-06?

Also I dont even see a subscription link to check out prices and such.

devilznj · Post by **devilznj** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:29 am

Just to save everyone a trip, Todd is as "homely as rumored."

Just kidding!

Appreciate the articles.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:43 am

Todd I went on your site to check it out, it seems a year behind, everything says 05-06?

Also I dont even see a subscription link to check out prices and such. Try the link in my signature now -- if you used the Mastersball URL, it would not have the correct info -- Sorry, I was slow in changing my sig

[ January 30, 2007, 02:45 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 4:53 pm

Killer!

Looks like I may be able to get some last minute tips...this location is like a medium bicycle ride away from my home!

WHEN:

Friday, March 9, 2007

7 - 10 PM

WHERE:

Hilton Garden Inn

San Mateo, CA

LEAD SPEAKER

Ron Shandler, Baseball HQ

OTHER PANELISTS

Todd Zola, FantasyBaseball.com

Lawr Michaels, CREATiVESPORTS

DIRECTIONS:

The Hilton Garden Inn is located at 2000 Bridgepointe Circle in San Mateo CA, just six miles south of San Francisco International Airport.

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 5:46 pm

Anybody hear Shandler speak before? I get the imression that he is quite the introvert so I wonder how he does.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:02 pm

I think I'm going to plan on going. My Dad's turning 70, and the family is going to throw a nice party the following day (Sat)...but Friday is open.

Lawr Michaels is a cool cat. He was mingling and assisting (in the facilitator role for a bit of fun) in the 2005 draft in Vegas. (Remember Stevieland and Chest?)

Between the 3 of them...it should be worth 29 bucks for sure. I paid 27 bucks for a pre-draft cocktail in Vegas...geez! (30 with tip...but that season didn't work out so good.)

Let's go Bjoak! Only like 35 minutes from Alameda.

I wonder how many NFBC players will be in the audience.

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:09 pm

I didn't even look to see it was local. Will there be drinks there? You are going so that may be an answer in and of itself. How do I sign up? Can we cell phone up if I go?

[ January 31, 2007, 12:10 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:15 pm

There's GOT to be a bar...but I'll investigate...and there WILL be beer or cocktails should there NOT be a bar.

Hell yes on the cell phone.

It should be a fun 3 hours...it's fantasy baseball!

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:25 pm

Sounds good. I want to try my math kung fu on Zola! Do you know how to sign up/ get a ticket? I don't have to be a member of HQ, I hope?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:01 am

1. Ron is an excellent public speaker

2. Lawr is indeed one cool cat

3. It's a hotel, they'll be a bar and these affairs, especially the evening ones, have been known to spill into the hotel watering hole on occasion.

4. Sign up available at www.firstpitchforums.com

5. Their is usually about 2 hours of a planned program, then an hour or so free-for-all where you can bombard the panel with questions. If you leave the room with an unanswered question, it is because you didn't ask it.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:26 am

Todd,

In each of your years in the NFBC, what draft positions have you had, and who did you take in the first round?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:34 am

If I recall, the first year I eliminated myself on draft day by taking Mark Prior 6th overall. I'm not sure of the exact draft position, I think it was around 6-8.

The next year I took Pujols at 2.

Last year in the 15 hole, I took Helton and Ichiro -- they were a package pair, I think I said Helton's name first so technically he went as a first rounder. I remember doing an analysis of every other league and in every one but the one I was in, there would have been someone other than Helton I would have taken as my first rounder and in more than half, he would not have been my 2.16 either. It's just the way the cards were dealt. My exact top 14 went before me, no one slipped through which was pretty amazing.

EDIT -- Upon further review, something isn't right here. One year I sat next to Nate Ravitz, and had the #2 pick and took Pujols. The next year I was next to Shawn Childs and recall being in the middle and would not have taken Prior that year - I honestly don't remember who I did take, though I do recall taking V-Mart and IRod 2 and 3 which was a big mistake. Last year I KNOW it was Helton/Ichiro. I probably took Prior in another draft that first year and am getting it confused.

EDIT of the EDIT -- You know, because I am having such difficulty remembering the pick my second year, I bet it was Helton around 7 or 8.

FINAL EDIT, I PROMISE -- I remembered that I always post my teams for my subscribers to see, so I can confirm Pujols in 2004 and Helton in 2005. Also, I followed Helton with Sheffield, then took VMart and IRod 3 and 4.

[ January 31, 2007, 08:13 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:03 am

Mental notes:

1) I like Todd Zola a lot

2) I do not like Todd Zola enough to solicit his advice on first round picks- because he said the word Helton last year.

Mental notes made!