Live Chat With Lord Zola: Wednesday 7 pm ET

[Greg Ambrosius]

We'd like to continue our weekly Live Chat this week with NFBC veteran and industry writer Todd Zola. Todd will join us on Wednesday at 7 pm ET for a Live Chat on our Message Boards, talking everything numbers and everything baseball. Thanks to Todd for taking the time to do this.

Todd is now writing full-time with Rotowire.com, a great move for Todd and the site. You can also hear him weekly on the Rotowire SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show talking auction values, something that Todd specializes in. Todd will also be one of the guest speakers on the First Pitch Forums that will be starting up in two weeks. If you're planning to attend those, make sure you get all the details from Todd.

Feel free to post your questions in advance so that Todd can engage early and often. This can be a Live Chat beforehand and afterwards as well. We just want to see some baseball dialogue and get you ready for the upcoming season.

Thanks again Todd and away we go.......

[DOUGHBOYS]

Todd,

First, thanks for being one of the most accessible guys in the business. I don't know how many times I have been asked a Numerish question and suggested that they either go to your site, Mastersball, or email you directly.
Either way, you never disappoint.

Each year, we fall in love with a player. Last year, I know you liked Cole Calhoun and others.
We fall in love for various reasons, whether it's a low price, higher self-player evaluation, or even knowing something personal about the player.
Is there a player for you that has sustained that love for you over a career?
Even a 'go-to player' over the course of many years?

[ToddZ]

You know Shark Week? Welcome to Zola week. I do my best to hit questions before (and after) the scheduled time to allow more questions to be answered during the official chat.

Thanks to Greg for the gracious intro. I'd like to correct one small thing -- it's more that I write regularly for Rotowire than full-time. I'm still heading up ESPN's projections as well as managing their in-season Daily Notes. Not to mention, preparing the content for Mastersball Platinum.

So without further ado...

Each year, we fall in love with a player. Last year, I know you liked Cole Calhoun and others.
We fall in love for various reasons, whether it's a low price, higher self-player evaluation, or even knowing something personal about the player.
Is there a player for you that has sustained that love for you over a career?
Even a 'go-to player' over the course of many years?

Dan - it's Kole, with a K. How would you feel if I called you Cenyon? Mess with my guy and pay the price.

Speaking of paying the price, it's not so much that I fell in love with Calhoun as a player but rather identified a guy I sensed I liked more than the market. The reason was I factored in a larger playing time bump and a ton of runs scored hitting on top of the Angels lineup. I was half right - the runs did not manifest as the team struggled offensively all season --- DESPITE Mike Trout and 40 homers from Pujols.

My man-crush lasts as long as I disagree with the market - which usually isn't more than a year. Either I'm wrong and alter my expectation or I'm right and the market corrects. Either way, it usually adjusts the following year though I did get Kole for a good price in an auction last weekend - but I think that was more a function of when he was nominated than anything else. If he came out earlier, he probably would have cost more.

Part of the downside of doing what I do for a living is sharing the following - but once I started putting Fantasy Baseball Analyst as occupation on my tax form, secrets went out the window. This year's Calhouns are A.J. Pollock, J.D. Martinez and Ketel Marte.

There really isn't a player I've latched onto for an extended period - though Brandon Phillips came close. He was a go-to in the 4th/5th round for me for several years.

As far as non-fantasy favorites, I gravitate towards watching the ace pitchers and Gold Glove defenders. I can watch Andrelton Simmons, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado pick it all night long. Injuries have masked it a bit but Brett Lawrie can flash the leather too.

There's some hitters I consider must-see TV when they're up. Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Seager, Christian Yelich and Phillips come to mind. Carlos Correa as well.

Greg probably remembers this - I've been a fan of Phillips since he had the gall to do the airplane move while rounding second after hitting a HR in the AFL. It's subjective, but for me there's a fine line between flair and poor sportsmanship. Phillips did/does things with flair - makes it more fun for me as a fan. Others think he's a show-off. Different strokes.

[Atlas]

Todd

Tyler Lyons and Alex Reyes are sporting back-to-back ADPs.

Are they really a coin toss?

[ToddZ]

Todd

Tyler Lyons and Alex Reyes are sporting back-to-back ADPs.

Are they really a coin toss?

It's not an apples to apples comparison - it comes down to agenda.

Reyes is obviously the more talented pitcher but he's serving a suspension and is looking at a second half debut -- if that.

Lyons is a Jaime Garcia injury away from being in the rotation.

It's a team construct and philosophy thing. Not a who's better thing.

[Doctor Who]

I'll give you some hard questions Zola.

1. Am I bringing the BBQ to first pitch hotel so you can try since you probably have a flight out that night to go taste that horrible ATL BBQ?

2. Give a guy in each round for the top 4 rounds you want nothing to do with come March.

3. If NFBC were a DFS site (Might even get in trouble just saying that even know its in theory..) what players would you say are nice "cash" game players to help build a team, and your favorite GPP plays (lottery ticket guys) that you like this year? (Of course we are pretending DFS was season-long. )

[ToddZ]

1. Am I bringing the BBQ to first pitch hotel so you can try since you probably have a flight out that night to go taste that horrible ATL BBQ?

Had my first physical in seven years last week so no BBQ (or pizza in Chicago and NYC) for me.

2. Give a guy in each round for the top 4 rounds you want nothing to do with come March.

It's cliche but everyone has a price. I can however, share the names I won' consider at their current ADP: Kris Bryant, Jose Fernandez, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

3. If NFBC were a DFS site (Might even get in trouble just saying that even know its in theory..) what players would you say are nice "cash" game players to help build a team, and your favorite GPP plays (lottery ticket guys) that you like this year? (Of course we are pretending DFS was season-long. )

SAFE - You're not looking for guys like Kershaw and Goldschmidt so let's say Altuve and Bumgarner up top and for a couple outside the top-50...Sonny Gray, Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Seager, Ian Kinsler

RISKY - Harper, Correa, Bryant, Corey Seager, Bogaerts, Sano

I prefer to take my chances mid to late so the ones I'm more likely to draft are Ketel Marte, Randal Grichuk, Jose Peraza, Dalton Pompey, Lance McCullers

[Greg Ambrosius]

Todd, I think people should know that the name Lord Zola was given to you by Matthew Berry during one of our XFL Drafts. This was before Matthew went to ESPN, but it was a cool name that any of us would be honored to have.

Now, I know you're going to be with a traveling band of HQ writers doing the First Pitch Forum tours this year. Atlanta and St. Louis are new cities on the stops, but where else are you guys hosting these at this year? Put in a plug for these baseball gatherings, which really are the grassroots of fantasy baseball. Thanks.

Talk about what you're seeing in the online auctions. We all love the auctions so much, so many thanks to you and Andy for hosting these. I'm getting more and more requests from people who want to try these out. Are we seeing more balanced bidding for players than in years past, are we seeing more for the top guys, more for starting pitching? What auction trends can you tell us about?

Anyone from the AFL who stood out to you this year? Two years ago it was Kris Bryant and Tyler Glasnow for me and I think we're going to see some of that 6'8" greatness this year. This past year it was Josh Hader, Nick Burdi and Ray Black. It should be fun to see some of these flame-throwers reach the majors in the next year. Who stood out for you?

Thanks man and stay well.

[ToddZ]

Todd, I think people should know that the name Lord Zola was given to you by Matthew Berry during one of our XFL Drafts. This was before Matthew went to ESPN, but it was a cool name that any of us would be honored to have.

He actually was with ESPN - early on, but he was with the WWL. Matthew started it but I'm not sure it would have caught on if Josh Paley didn't repeat it...and repeat it...and repeat it...at the evening poker games.

Now, I know you're going to be with a traveling band of HQ writers doing the First Pitch Forum tours this year. Atlanta and St. Louis are new cities on the stops, but where else are you guys hosting these at this year? Put in a plug for these baseball gatherings, which really are the grassroots of fantasy baseball. Thanks.

In full disclosure, I just found out Potts is speaking at the Atlanta forum so I may have to call in sick that day.

We kick off in a little less that two weeks.

Feb 27 Chicago
Feb 28 St. Louis
March 5 Houston
March 6 Atlanta
March 11 Balt/DC
March 12 NYC
March 12 LA
March 13 Boston

I'll be at all the sites except LA. It's three-hours (plus) of fantasy baseball talk. If you leave without having your question answered it's because you didn't ask it. Go to BaseballHQ.com for details.

Talk about what you're seeing in the online auctions. We all love the auctions so much, so many thanks to you and Andy for hosting these. I'm getting more and more requests from people who want to try these out. Are we seeing more balanced bidding for players than in years past, are we seeing more for the top guys, more for starting pitching? What auction trends can you tell us about?

The auctions are a blast. Obviously there's nothing like a live auction experience but the room is pretty slick and does as good a job as possible as emulating the experience. It would be better if RTS used Brady's voice for the countdown. Let's work on that.

The auctions have been a little less aggressive than the live events in terms of paying top dollar. I suppose it could be the player pool but more likely bravado takes over live.

We seem to have the same staples playing in all the auctions -- which is fine -- but we hope (and expect) more and more newcomers join the festivities. I've had a couple requests for a rookies only league so we'll see if that can fill.

Five hours can be a long time but when you consider it's a set up for an entire season of fun, it's not so bad.

The prices paid for all the auctions can be found HERE Pardon the gratuitous plug for a certain web site before you get to the link.

Anyone from the AFL who stood out to you this year? Two years ago it was Kris Bryant and Tyler Glasnow for me and I think we're going to see some of that 6'8" greatness this year. This past year it was Josh Hader, Nick Burdi and Ray Black. It should be fun to see some of these flame-throwers reach the majors in the next year. Who stood out for you?

This is going to seem wrong but I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the players - I just enjoy the game, the weather and most importantly, the company. When the time comes for me to learn about prospects, I'll check out Keith Law, the Baseball HQ Minor League Guide and Baseball America. Ever since the year I fell in love with Gookie Dawkins, I decided to leave the scouting to the professionals.

[southpaw23]

Couple of post 20th round DC questions...

Favorite 2nd catcher post 20th round? A few names you'd be looking at...

Some potential closers you would be looking to target? Hernandez, Hoover? Others? Where does the best opportunity lie?

[Bjs2025]

In an auction would you rather have Aroldis Chapman for $18 or Delin Betances for $4?

[ToddZ]

Couple of post 20th round DC questions...

Favorite 2nd catcher post 20th round? A few names you'd be looking at...

Using the latest ADP as a guide -- Navarro, Rupp and JR Murphy.

Some potential closers you would be looking to target? Hernandez, Hoover? Others? Where does the best opportunity lie?

Capps - no brainer, guessing he's no longer lasting into the twenties

Jepsen - Perkins has broken down late the last two seasons

Madson - don't trust Doolittle to stay healthy and Axford to pitch well

[ToddZ]

In an auction would you rather have Aroldis Chapman for $18 or Delin Betances for $4?

No brainer - Chapman.

[Bob Enzyte]

Todd, thanks for doing this. In an auction, would you bid $1 on Torii Hunter?

[ToddZ]

Todd, thanks for doing this. In an auction, would you bid $1 on Torii Hunter?

Can someone please screen these posts?!?!?

Hey, all Andy and I can do is set 'em up. How you guys choose to knock 'em down is up to you.

[EWeaver]

You know Shark Week? Welcome to Zola week. I do my best to hit questions before (and after) the scheduled time to allow more questions to be answered during the official chat.

Thanks to Greg for the gracious intro. I'd like to correct one small thing -- it's more that I write regularly for Rotowire than full-time. I'm still heading up ESPN's projections as well as managing their in-season Daily Notes. Not to mention, preparing the content for Mastersball Platinum.

So without further ado...

Each year, we fall in love with a player. Last year, I know you liked Cole Calhoun and others.
We fall in love for various reasons, whether it's a low price, higher self-player evaluation, or even knowing something personal about the player.
Is there a player for you that has sustained that love for you over a career?
Even a 'go-to player' over the course of many years?

Dan - it's Kole, with a K. How would you feel if I called you Cenyon? Mess with my guy and pay the price.

Speaking of paying the price, it's not so much that I fell in love with Calhoun as a player but rather identified a guy I sensed I liked more than the market. The reason was I factored in a larger playing time bump and a ton of runs scored hitting on top of the Angels lineup. I was half right - the runs did not manifest as the team struggled offensively all season --- DESPITE Mike Trout and 40 homers from Pujols.

My man-crush lasts as long as I disagree with the market - which usually isn't more than a year. Either I'm wrong and alter my expectation or I'm right and the market corrects. Either way, it usually adjusts the following year though I did get Kole for a good price in an auction last weekend - but I think that was more a function of when he was nominated than anything else. If he came out earlier, he probably would have cost more.

Part of the downside of doing what I do for a living is sharing the following - but once I started putting Fantasy Baseball Analyst as occupation on my tax form, secrets went out the window. This year's Calhouns are A.J. Pollock, J.D. Martinez and Ketel Marte.

There really isn't a player I've latched onto for an extended period - though Brandon Phillips came close. He was a go-to in the 4th/5th round for me for several years.

As far as non-fantasy favorites, I gravitate towards watching the ace pitchers and Gold Glove defenders. I can watch Andrelton Simmons, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado pick it all night long. Injuries have masked it a bit but Brett Lawrie can flash the leather too.

There's some hitters I consider must-see TV when they're up. Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Seager, Christian Yelich and Phillips come to mind. Carlos Correa as well.

Greg probably remembers this - I've been a fan of Phillips since he had the gall to do the airplane move while rounding second after hitting a HR in the AFL. It's subjective, but for me there's a fine line between flair and poor sportsmanship. Phillips did/does things with flair - makes it more fun for me as a fan. Others think he's a show-off. Different strokes.

how were you so wrong on kole?

also, curious about the "i could watch him pick" lines since if i recall, last year when i gave you $30 for bad advice, you wrote that you didn't watch baseball, just looked at numbers.

if everything is contextual, what is your advice?

[ToddZ]

how were you so wrong on kole?

Is .256-26-83-78-4 really so wrong? He did his job. I anticipated more runs but the team was in a slumber all season.

also, curious about the "i could watch him pick" lines since if i recall, last year when i gave you $30 for bad advice, you wrote that you didn't watch baseball, just looked at numbers.

You're misremembering. I watch as much ball as anyone here and have never, ever suggested otherwise.

if everything is contextual, what is your advice?

Apologies, not clear on the question. Without any more context...I'd ask the person for more context.

[EWeaver]

how were you so wrong on kole?

Is .256-26-83-78-4 really so wrong? He did his job. I anticipated more runs but the team was in a slumber all season.

i've got .275-23-81-100-10 on my sheet.

also, curious about the "i could watch him pick" lines since if i recall, last year when i gave you $30 for bad advice, you wrote that you didn't watch baseball, just looked at numbers.

You're misremembering. I watch as much ball as anyone here and have never, ever suggested otherwise.

if everything is contextual, what is your advice?

Apologies, not clear on the question. Without any more context...I'd ask the person for more context.

couple examples:

"It's cliche but everyone has a price. I can however, share the names I won' consider at their current ADP: Kris Bryant, Jose Fernandez, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki."

"It's a team construct and philosophy thing. Not a who's better thing."

[ToddZ]

couple examples:

"It's cliche but everyone has a price. I can however, share the names I won' consider at their current ADP: Kris Bryant, Jose Fernandez, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki."

"It's a team construct and philosophy thing. Not a who's better thing."

Honestly not trying to be difficult but...examples of what?

[Edwards Kings]

Todd,

Looking forward to the Atlanta First Pitch. Be great to catch up with you and Dave (and others) prior to Vegas.

And I can appreciate doctor-visit induced changes, though I use bbq in my diet (roasted lean meats for protein, veggies like collard greens...heaven) though Texas BBQ, while at least barely edible (i.e. I would choose Texas BBQ over say a roasted Chuck Taylor Hightop, but just barely), may be the exception.

As to baseball, I love auctions. For your profession, I recognize you may try multiple strategies for your budget (balance, stars and scrubs, heavy pitching, etc.) and the auction itself always dictates, but if Todd Zola were going to only do ONE auction, what type of budget do you feel can give you the best chance to end up with the team you want? 70/30 split, focus budgeting for certain stats like steals or saves, position anchors and fill-ins?

[Edwards Kings]

Middle infielders:

While having a thin top tier (and you all can have Correa), do you feel for middle infielders there is a broad and deep second tier layer (for auctions say 20+ averaging $15 so the range from $10 to $20) of guys who can actually help your stats? If so, is this a change from your perspective from the prior year (i.e. you might actually pay that much in prior years because you had too, but did they really help your team)? Do you think Villar will 1) win a starting job 2) keep a starting job? Howie Kendrick is getting no love in my opinion. Do you think 1) he is now just a one-trick pony 2) hit lead-off in LA? Really...has Andrelton Simmons fallen so low as to be reserve-round fodder?

[ToddZ]

As to baseball, I love auctions. For your profession, I recognize you may try multiple strategies for your budget (balance, stars and scrubs, heavy pitching, etc.) and the auction itself always dictates, but if Todd Zola were going to only do ONE auction, what type of budget do you feel can give you the best chance to end up with the team you want? 70/30 split, focus budgeting for certain stats like steals or saves, position anchors and fill-ins?

I always base plans on a 69/31 split but don't aim for it. Others target counting stats -- the only thing is ERA and WHIP. I know what I need in terms of a staff to achieve ratios in my desired range. I'll then pay what it takes to make sure I get the necessary arms and spend the rest on hitting. If the top arms are going for a lot more than I expect, I have a Plan B where my target ERA is lower, meaning of course I need more hitting points.

For a couple of years, I was a strict spread the risk guy and my results suffered, Shoot, I've come in last place or near last place for the last two years in the AL and NL only auctions and these are supposed to be my bread and butter. Last year I didn't do the spread the risk; I just bought crappy players.

I'm mush more about team construct nowadays than I am about "value". Of course I want to pay a certain amount for each player but whereas some will just purchase anyone that comes in under their number, I do that in concert with team construct.

The cliche is let the draft (or auction) come to you. Hogwash - attack it. By this I mean know your strength and weakness and draft accordingly, If you know you can get Billy Burns, Ender Inciarte, Delino Deshields etc. at a good price, don't waste an earlier purchase on a steals guy. As a harbinger of the next question, if you know there are a ton of second baseman that offer empty batting average and can buy one or two on the cheap, then don't chase a top 2B and don't worry if you pick up a guy with a low average but lost of power since you'll be balancing that later.

In the NFBC I feel you need to buy saves at the auction - assuming the overall competition. In stand-alone leagues, I don't sweat it but do hope for one reliable source of saves.

[ToddZ]

Middle infielders:

While having a thin top tier (and you all can have Correa), do you feel for middle infielders there is a broad and deep second tier layer (for auctions say 20+ averaging $15 so the range from $10 to $20) of guys who can actually help your stats? If so, is this a change from your perspective from the prior year (i.e. you might actually pay that much in prior years because you had too, but did they really help your team)?

The 2B and SS pools are so different I don't think you can lump them together. I think we're in lockstep fading not only Correa, but all the young shortstops which means we're waiting and probably jumping on the first of the middle to lower tier that comes in at a good price. As mentioned earlier, I like Ketel Marte more than others so he's a guy I've been landing on. But if I end up with Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Crawford or even Erick Aybar, I'm not complaining so long as I didn't chase them.

Second base is a little different since it's SO deep. Maybe not stacked with quality, but there's a ton of useful quantity. The way I use it is to tier the second baseman by contributions (batting average, speed or pop) and don't chase an early one. The most plush group is the decent batting average, tempered counting stats group so I'll look to bully up counting stats early, even at the expense of average and then grab Murphy, Phillips, Pedroia, Panik or LeMahieu etc. If I need a little pop then Walker, For speed there's Wong. I like Cano and Kinsler, but unless they come in way under my number then I'll pass due to the opportunity cost of tying up the roster spot.

Do you think Villar will 1) win a starting job 2) keep a starting job?

I don't know that Villar will win the SS job as much as get it by default until Orlando Arcia is ready. There's no reason to start Arcia's clock so I'd expect Villar to get a decent chunk of playing time - at least half a season. After that, it depends on how the teammates to the left and right of him are doing -- Middlebrooks at third, Gennett at second with Hill flipping between both. If Villar is hitting well when Arcia is ready, perhaps he moves. Or he could even go to center field depending on whether the Brewers add anyone, give Rymer Liriano a shot or promote Phillips.

Howie Kendrick is getting no love in my opinion. Do you think 1) he is now just a one-trick pony 2) hit lead-off in LA?

Not sure about one-trick pony -- he can go 10/10. Kendrick's just another guy - he fits in with that decent average group. If Joc hits he'll be the lead off hitter, at least against RHP so maybe worst case Kendrick leads off against LHP. Something that concerns me a little is the early word is Kendrick will play some 3B until Turner is 100 percent ready -- which means the club has someone in mine to play second (Utley/Hernandez) - and if that's the case, whose to say they don't take time from Howie when Turner is ready? I think the presence of Utley is what is knocking Kendrick down.

Really...has Andrelton Simmons fallen so low as to be reserve-round fodder?

For me, yeah. He'll likely be hitting at the bottom of an order that is top-heavy and doesn't score many runs in the lower half. He has no upside. His floor is OK with his excellent contact but I'd rather aim a little higher and know I can get Simmons as a parachute if necessary.

[ToddZ]

Apparently I'll be mocking at 9 PM so happy to knock off anything you might have before 7:00 so I can hit everything then.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Whom are you mocking?
Here's a mock without a word.....

hiwherwuhgwvbeiwbuervbieqwubviqbvqoieebrqoivbqoibvoqiurUERWUEBVWOBWOEBOVHBFVOWHVBOWBVOEQ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!IUWOIUWBIUEBOIUBVOFWIUBEOEVWIUBFVQUIBR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ROUEIEOIUOURBVQ!!!!!!!!!!


Never mind. Not long enough.
Love ya, Mikey!