MLB.com Draft Results

a · Post by a » Tue Mar 30, 2004 8:29 am

Here is another funny thing I noticed, I see offenive totals for some teams in NFBC better than his (his being a 12 team league while we drafted with 15 teams). I would like to see the projection breakdown by player for his team. Just out of pure curiosity.

Guest · Post by **Guest** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 8:43 am

Pos/Age/Team/RS/HR/RBI/SB/AVG

Fullmer,Brad 0 29 TEX 89 28 97 9 300

Lopez,Javy 2 33 BAL 62 32 84 0 303

Konerko,Paul 3 28 CHW 66 28 91 0 285

Pierre,Juan 8 27 FLA 85 1 37 48 312

Millar,Kevin 37 33 BOS 78 27 104 2 281

Hunter,Torii 8 29 MIN 84 26 95 11 278

Ortiz,David 30 28 BOS 70 34 97 0 291

Vidro,Jose 4 30 MON 91 16 79 3 325

Burnitz,Jeromy 798 35 COL 92 32 100 8 263

Phillips,Jason L. 23 28 NYM 57 20 83 0 286

Edmonds,Jim 8 34 STL 90 32 85 3 278

Polanco,Placido 45 28 PHI 89 16 60 16 297

Renteria,Edgar 6 29 STL 97 18 97 34 313

Blalock,Hank 5 23 TEX 87 30 90 3 290

Totals: 1137 340 1199 137 293

Age/Team/W/S/K/ERA/WHIP

Williamson,Scott 28 BOS 5 11 85 3.58 1.29

Riske,David 27 CLE 2 21 83 3.08 1.10

Thomson,John 31 ATL 13 0 115 3.36 1.17

Redman,Mark 30 OAK 14 0 126 3.81 1.20

Redding,Tim 26 HOU 9 0 88 3.72 1.28

Milton,Eric 29 PHI 11 0 129 3.72 1.10

Lawrence,Brian 28 SD 13 0 132 3.84 1.32

Rhodes,Arthur 34 OAK 5 36 60 2.79 0.91

Loaiza,Esteban 32 CHW 14 0 177 3.28 1.13

Totals: 86 68 995 3.55 1.18

Vegas - if you've seen a team with better numbers across the board offensively than this one in the NFBC then I'd like to see it.

Karch Adonis · Post by **Karch Adonis** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 9:08 am

Those projections look a little rich. If the ball is going to be that juiced, then 300 HR's will be nothing.

Karch Adonis · Post by **Karch Adonis** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 9:26 am

Originally posted by :

Pos/Age/Team/RS/HR/RBI/SB/AVG

Polanco,Placido 45 28 PHI 89 16 60 16 297

Polanco 162 GM Average:

RS/HR/RBI/SB/AVG

81/8 / 53/ 9/294

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 10:38 am

No one does a better job in my opinion of putting together a scientific prognostication of predicted results than Ron Shandler. But even with all the data input that Ron uses, fly balls, line drives, batting eye and so on there are too many things that will influence the results, injuries, weather, luck and so on to make it any more than a best guess. How much has steroid use affected results? Which Javy Lopez plays this year? Which Tejada?

I guess that's why they play the games

Guest · Post by **Guest** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 10:51 am

With all due respect 4perps I don't think that an increase of 8RS, 7RBI, 3BA points, 8HR, and 7SB is such a drastic difference that it's not plausible in his development cycle.

Karch Adonis · Post by **Karch Adonis** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 11:37 am

Originally posted by :

With all due respect 4perps I don't think that an increase of 8RS, 7RBI, 3BA points, 8HR, and 7SB is such a drastic difference that it's not plausible in his development cycle. I think the 340 HR's raised a question about the numbers. Taking a marginal player's 162 game HR average and doubling it for this season might explain the jacked projections.

Considering all the digital ink that has been spent on Shandler's projections, it sounds like his reputation has a stake in this even though he is not playing. If this season's contenders end up being teams that were counted out based on these pre-season projections, then I doubt we'll be reading the same smack next year.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 11:48 am

Based on 'Shandler projections' of his 12 team draft and my partner and my 15 team draft, he beats us 8-2.

Ron:

AVG - 293

HR - 340

RBI - 1199

RS - 1137

SB - 137

ERA - 3.55

WHIP - 1.18

W - 86

S - 68

K - 995

Our - according to Bags - not sure if he used the Mack engine or the book...

AVG: .2903

HR: 308

RBI: 1119

SB: 144

R: 1032

ERA: 3.659

W: 78

K: 1069

SV: 82

WHIP: 1.266

Worst Russian Ever · Post by **Worst Russian Ever** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 11:48 am

I don't know about the draft teams but my Auction AL only team is better then Shandler's. He has no legitimate stud producers, no star pitchers and made the terrible mistake of drafting Blalock and Loaiza coming of career years.

HMMMM maybe I should write a book!

Harlem Hangover · Post by **Harlem Hangover** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 12:52 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

QUOTE]I dont really get the obsession with projections here.. why do we even bother playing the season after the drafts.. you guys have obviously figured out who will win. These projections mean absolutely nothing in terms of what will actually happen on the field this year

Thanks Harlem - can you help us nail down the accuracy of weather forecasts now?

I hope you are just being sarcastic instead of stubborn here... the POINT of this all is that Ron Shandler (moreso than any other human being I've heard of) stakes his reputation and expert-label on his ability to 'most accurately' forecast the 'potential' for productivity of players AHEAD of time. Understanding completely that the projections have zero value going into the season (I dare say... "duh") - it's informative to ME to find out where he compromised HIMSELF in his draft strategy when he had the audacity to harshly criticize what he observed in person.

Just as projections are meaningless NOW, they are incredibly useful for the draft. Surely you're not arguing that nobody should do projections of value or stats and just blindly plop down at the draft and toss out names??

Ok, I'm done with my rant - I think your point was 'shut up, who cares' - but you come off as naive in your post and I don't think that's what you're saying.

Big mouth and fast fingers,

Dyv [/QB][/quote]

Perhaps you are right Dyv, i may have spoken to quickly and not adequately expressed what i was trying to say.. Unfortunately i dont have nearly the time I would like to spend on the boards and get into discussions with all you guys.

I certainly didnt mean to offend you in any way.. You seemed to have taken what I said personally for whatever reason. I apologize if you thought i was critcizing you in some way.

Obviously i use projections as much as anyone else and realize they are an invaluable tool heading into a draft. I was more talking about using the projections after the fact to try and forecast how teams will finish in this contest or any other. (which is what some of the guys on this board seem to be doing) Especially using Ron Shandler's OWN projections to analyze his OWN team.. One would hope in an experts draft, the experts would each have their own opinions/projections, so Ron should come out on top according to his own numbers

But i appreciate the sarcasm we have come to expect from you on the boards. As for me being naive and the other stuff , i'll leave that one alone. No need to get into a pissing contest

[ March 30, 2004, 06:55 PM: Message edited by: Harlem Hangover ]

a · Post by a » Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:12 pm

Thanx for the breakdown, I did miss Ortiz off of the list that I did. But he is being optimistic with several injury prone players.

I don't recall which NFBC team I saw, but I had him at about 330 HRs and 1200 BIs. I'll see if I can find that team.

Then again, my team isn't too shabby for a 15 teamer...

M. Lieberthal

M. LeCroy

J. Giambi

J. Thome

M. Grudzielanek

M. Ellis

M. Ensberg

J. Wilson

J. Valentin

B. Kielty

J. Guillen

R. White

V. Guerrero

J. Pierre

M. Lawton

J. Edmonds

J. Conine

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:58 pm

Repeat deleted

[ March 30, 2004, 08:00 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:59 pm

Originally posted by Harlem Hangover:

Perhaps you are right Dyv, i may have spoken to quickly and not adequately expressed what i was trying to say.. Unfortunately i dont have nearly the time I would like to spend on the boards and get into discussions with all you guys.

I certainly didnt mean to offend you in any way.. You seemed to have taken what I said personally for whatever reason. I apologize if you thought i was critcizing you in some way.

Obviously i use projections as much as anyone else and realize they are an invaluable tool heading into a draft. I was more talking about using the projections after the fact to try and forecast how teams will finish in this contest or any other. (which is what some of the guys on this board seem to be doing) Especially using Ron Shandler's OWN projections to analyze his OWN team.. One would hope in an experts draft, the experts would each have their own opinions/projections, so Ron should come out on top according to his own numbers

But i appreciate the sarcasm we have come to expect from you on the boards. As for me being naive and the other stuff , i'll leave that one alone. No need to get into a pissing contest The funny thing is he DIDN'T have the best team according to his own projections, lol

You didn't offend me, I just am an irritable bastard and sometimes have a hard time relaying a sense of play in my typing

I learn something every time I play these games - part of my 'm.o.' with fantasy games is to shortchange starting pitching, neglect closers - fixate on the power hitters and be in contention, but I've never won a big prize in fantasy baseball. I'm actually much more of a fantasy hockey guy, but the concepts are the same regardless of the sport and the notion of projections begins to fail the instant someone's playing time is affected for ANY reason. By mid-May the projections are basically useless.

The value to me now is to observe that based on projections my team needs wins - and therefore tells me I shouldn't be afraid to bid aggressively on a fast starting SP from a contending team.

I'm not intuitively brilliant at looking over a roster and 'seeing' the underlying stats.

My weakness, but at least I'm aware of it

(well, at least I'm aware of that particular weakness... lol)

Dyv

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 5:11 am

Dyv, I have returned from New York and after checking out 200 e-mails and 20 more phone messages my eyes came straight to this post. It's a fun discussion on this league, but unfortunately this league will be very unrevealing at season's end of the participants. Why do I say that? Because this is a no-transactions league, which means luck will definitely factor into the final results as much if not more than skill. If anyone loses a star player or players for a length of time, their chances of winning are slim and none. Why else would I be able to get Mark Prior in the third round, the 34th pick overall?

To be honest, this was an interesting concept put together by MLB.com and it shows how far our industry has come in such a short time. This was not meant to be an "experts league" as much as it was meant to draw attention to the growth of fantasy sports hours before the season opener in Japan. I was happy to be part of the group they assembled and I think you'll see this league expanded and made more prominent in future years.

In many ways this was a historic event because the league's website promoted this, put it on and gave credence to the growth of fantasy sports. It's the first time a major sports league has done this. Can you imagine the visibility if NFL.com did the same thing this football season and worked with a TV partner to televise this draft? I think MLB.com saw how this worked and will push for a little television exposure next year as well. That's why I like this event/league so much because the future is more promising than the present.

As for Ron's team, I certainly can understand some of the criticism from the NFBC crew after his article on the NFBC participants in New York, but you have to realize that in all of his drafts/auctions he sticks very true to his projections. I've competed against Ron MANY times and his strategy is always the same. He drafts guys who he predicts will have big years, is heavy on position scarcity and devalues starting pitchers. So Renteria ahead of Beltran and Polanco in the fourth round didn't surprise me. But I know that I would have scooped up Beltran in the first round and wouldn't have taken Polanco in the fourth round. But that's just me and we're all different drafters.

Listen, I don't care about the projections because all of those are based on 550 at-bats. Nobody is going to get a full season from all 23 of their MLB.com draft picks, so injuries will play a HUGE role in this league. I picked guys who have had spring training injuries and who I felt were undervalued at this time and that strategy may prove to kill me in this league. But with a $5,000 first prize (they upped it after the draft) and nothing for second place, I wasn't about to be complacent and just try to compete. I'm trying to win the whole thing, so I had no trouble grabbing guys like Prior.

For those who care, here is my team, picking from the 10th spot in a 12-team league:

1. Manny Ramirez

2. Eric Chavez

3. Mark Prior

4. Sammy Sosa

5. Mike Piazza

6. Jose Reyes

7. John Smoltz

8. Kevin Brown

9. Jason Isringhausen

10. Johan Santana

11. Rafael Palmeiro

12. Jacque Jones

13. Roberto Alomar

14. Luis Gonzalez

15. Freddy Garcia

16. Raul Ibanez

17. Joe Crede

18. Mark Buehrle

19. Toby Hall

20. Dontrelle Willis

21. Tike Redman

22. Luis Rivas

23. Steve Trachsel

Now enjoy the thread!