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Have to say I think Greg did a kickass job in this one. Definitely finishes ahead of Shandler IMHO



http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/fanta ... aftresults

Let's see.....Shandler drafts Renteria ahead of Beltran, which is questionable. Pierre in the 2nd round - a little reach. But that was nothing compared to taking Placido Polanco in the FOURTH ROUND! HUH??? You're about 6 rounds early, chump! :rolleyes: That would be a terrible pick by a rank amateur, much less an "expert". No wonder he didn't want to put up $1250! I actually like the Forecaster, but making projections and winning roto contests are two different things.

Originally posted by Nevadaman:

Let's see.....Shandler drafts Renteria ahead of Beltran, which is questionable. Pierre in the 2nd round - a little reach. But that was nothing compared to taking Placido Polanco in the FOURTH ROUND! HUH??? You're about 6 rounds early, chump! :rolleyes: That would be a terrible pick by a rank amateur, much less an "expert". No wonder he didn't want to put up $1250! I actually like the Forecaster, but making projections and winning roto contests are two different things. Does anyone have time to use Shandler's projections for his team and against the rest of the league?



Lots of work, I can try to do it later tonight, but maybe we could divide up the work and people can claim 1 team to go calculate up and then post the numbers here. I'm curious based on his own projections how he'd fare in this league.



So, how about it - stake up a team to do and post the results? I'll finish whatever isn't done when I get back online later tonight about 6pm EST.



Let's see how smart he is using his own best data.



Dyv

Using the MACK Engine on HQ - which are Shandler's updated projections (not the one's in his book) his team comes in with these numbers:



AVG - 293

HR - 340

RBI - 1199

RS - 1137

SB - 137



ERA - 3.55

WHIP - 1.18

W - 86

S - 68

K - 995





Not too shabby.

And for those of you loving Greg's team, here are Shandler's projections for it:



AVG - 280

HR - 283

RBI - 1004

RS - 1052

SB - 110



ERA - 3.64

WHIP - 1.24

W - 107

S - 84

K - 1285



Shandler wins 7/3.

And for those of you loving Greg's team, here are Shandler's projections for it:



AVG - 289

HR - 307

RBI - 1118

RS - 1058

SB - 173



ERA - 3.52

WHIP - 1.21

W - 109

S - 66

K - 1260



Shandler wins 6/4.

AVG - 288

HR - 320

RBI - 1167

RS - 1087

SB - 93



ERA - 3.46

WHIP - 1.22

W - 82

S - 84

K - 1029



Shandler wins 7/3.

*Note - this team conveniently rostered only 1 CA and replaced their extra hitter with none other than Juan Gonzalez.



AVG - 288

HR - 293

RBI - 1129

RS - 1177

SB - 159



ERA - 3.71

WHIP - 1.24

W - 94

S - 92

K - 106



Split 5/5.

AVG - 278

HR - 255

RBI - 976

RS - 954

SB - 150



ERA - 3.77

WHIP - 1.30

W - 85

S - 88

K - 989



Shandler wins 8/2.

Originally posted by :

AVG - 278

HR - 255

RBI - 976

RS - 954

SB - 150



ERA - 3.77

WHIP - 1.30

W - 85

S - 88

K - 989



Shandler wins 8/2. I dont really get the obsession with projections here.. why do we even bother playing the season after the drafts.. you guys have obviously figured out who will win. These projections mean absolutely nothing in terms of what will actually happen on the field this year

Originally posted by Dyv:

[QUOTE]Does anyone have time to use Shandler's projections for his team and against the rest of the league?



Lots of work, I can try to do it later tonight, but maybe we could divide up the work and people can claim 1 team to go calculate up and then post the numbers here. I'm curious based on his own projections how he'd fare in this league.



So, how about it - stake up a team to do and post the results? I'll finish whatever isn't done when I get back online later tonight about 6pm EST.



Let's see how smart he is using his own best data.



Dyv Just doing what Lord Dyv asked of me.

AVG - 277

HR - 315

RBI - 1050

RS - 1079

SB - 121



ERA - 3.49

WHIP - 1.22

W - 86

S - 116

K - 1150



Shandler wins 6.5/3.5.

AVG - 284

HR - 256

RBI - 1033

RS - 1081

SB - 152



ERA - 3.60

WHIP - 1.26

W - 68

S - 105

K - 885



Shandler wins 8/2.

AVG - 291

HR - 254

RBI - 997

RS - 1101

SB - 144



ERA - 3.68

WHIP - 1.25

W - 115

S - 0

K - 1118



Shandler wins 7/3.

AVG - 282

HR - 273

RBI - 1020

RS - 1014

SB - 130



ERA - 3.43

WHIP - 1.22

W - 95

S - 82

K - 1198



Shandler wins 6/4.

AVG - 277

HR - 312

RBI - 1100

RS - 1133

SB - 160



ERA - 3.67

WHIP - 1.22

W - 83

S - 68

K - 1087



Shandler wins 7/3.

AVG - 274

HR - 283

RBI - 1007

RS - 1063

SB - 120



ERA - 3.85

WHIP - 1.29

W - 79

S - 85

K - 1057



Shandler wins 8/2.

Your pre-season standings...according to Shandler's Projections...



Grey - 87

Shandler - 86

Rubinson - 80

Leshen - 75.5

Needle - 72.5

Schwartz - 69.5

Crawford - 66.5

Patton - 59

Ambrosius - 57.5

Rotoman - 55

Michaels - 36.5

Klayman - 35



There you have it. I suppose he didn't do so bad compared to the field using his own projections. One would expect to be projected in such a spot using your own projections. If you're not you're in deep trouble. Just goes to show the difference of opinions. Leaderboard Sports thought Ambrosius had a great draft and he ended up 9th using these projections.

In his article about the NFBC, Shandler points out "you just don't go drafting 10th round players in the 3rd round", as he critiques an NFBC members draft. Yet, he takes Placido Polanco in the 4th round of his own draft???? Regardless of how I may feel about Polanco, doesn't logic suggest he would have been available much later in the draft for Shandler to pick up, enabling him to select a bonafide stud at #4, yet still end up with Polanco at a later round? In my draft, Polanco went at #89. In a 12 team draft, that works out to the middle of the 8th round. Again, irregardless of how Shandler believes Polanco will perform, isn't he doing exactly what he accused NFBC members of doing?

I think we can all agree the Polanco pick was a bad one. Though I tend to like him as a MI, the 4th rd was too high to take him. As far as the other picks go I don't see any I can really argue with too much.

I did a quick look according to my projections, I have him with 280-300 HRs. Who's having the breakout season?





Originally posted by :

Using the MACK Engine on HQ - which are Shandler's updated projections (not the one's in his book) his team comes in with these numbers:



AVG - 293

HR - 340

RBI - 1199

RS - 1137

SB - 137



ERA - 3.55

WHIP - 1.18

W - 86

S - 68

K - 995





Not too shabby.

Thanks for the great posts of information, wow!



Here's my observation/request:



When will Ron post up an article on his website decrying the quality of the mlb.com draft and mocking it for it's lack of experts and their foolishness?



Or is that criticism reserved only for the handful of our teams that he watched being drafted in NYC?



According to his own projections he didn't draft the best team... fixating SO MUCH on position scarcity that he reached ahead and took Polanco in the 4th round?



Hey Greg - are you around and just keeping out of it? Pray tell me - by some crazy chance, did Ron or anyone else at the draft ever mention a name that had already been taken?



(Greg is wisely staying out of this one, I think.... lol)



Thanks again for the stats posts - very much appreciate the effort and time it took to do that.



Dave

"Mock Lord Dyv"

QUOTE]I dont really get the obsession with projections here.. why do we even bother playing the season after the drafts.. you guys have obviously figured out who will win. These projections mean absolutely nothing in terms of what will actually happen on the field this year [/QB][/quote]


Thanks Harlem - can you help us nail down the accuracy of weather forecasts now?



I hope you are just being sarcastic instead of stubborn here... the POINT of this all is that Ron Shandler (moreso than any other human being I've heard of) stakes his reputation and expert-label on his ability to 'most accurately' forecast the 'potential' for productivity of players AHEAD of time. Understanding completely that the projections have zero value going into the season (I dare say... "duh") - it's informative to ME to find out where he compromised HIMSELF in his draft strategy when he had the audacity to harshly criticize what he observed in person.



Just as projections are meaningless NOW, they are incredibly useful for the draft. Surely you're not arguing that nobody should do projections of value or stats and just blindly plop down at the draft and toss out names??



Ok, I'm done with my rant - I think your point was 'shut up, who cares' - but you come off as naive in your post and I don't think that's what you're saying.



Big mouth and fast fingers,



Dyv

Originally posted by Dyv:





When will Ron post up an article on his website decrying the quality of the mlb.com draft and mocking it for it's lack of experts and their foolishness?



Dyv, are you suggesting that the ESPN "Dream Job" reject and that smarmy guy from ESPN's Cold Pizza don't qualify as "experts" in your book?



They Hama-Lama-Don't in my book...

Originally posted by Rey:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:





When will Ron post up an article on his website decrying the quality of the mlb.com draft and mocking it for it's lack of experts and their foolishness?



Dyv, are you suggesting that the ESPN "Dream Job" reject and that smarmy guy from ESPN's Cold Pizza don't qualify as "experts" in your book?



They Hama-Lama-Don't in my book... [/QUOTE]Bahaha, I rarely see smarmy used well in a sentence... but I think you got it



I'm just suggesting that if Ron is going to be critical he should apply his superiority equally and not play favorites, lol.



I don't read Ron's reports or subscribe to his website. Perhaps he's just always a critical S.O.B. or perhaps NYC guys really do suck at fantasy baseball. I just wish Ron would have at least had the fairness to admit he only noted 'a few' abberations in the draft instead of making it sound like the entire NFBC population was at fault. I'm just new enough to this national-level fantasy sports (9 yrs. of games, 33 yrs. old) that I don't hold any special sacred feeling for Ron or anyone else. I met Gene from Wiseguys at the AL auction and he seemed cool and confident, but not overbearing. Greg seems like a regular guy... Ron's post struck me as ego-driven and crafted to belittle an entire group of people that he couldn't possibly know. It seemed mean-spirited.



Thus my crusade to find out more



"Nobody comes in here and messes with me or my buddies", Average Joe 2



Dyv