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Everyone knew before today that Aroldis Chapman was likely facing a suspension for a domestic dispute this off-season in which he shot off several rounds in his garage. But apparently nobody thought it would be as hard as it was reported today. Chapman has been suspended 30 games and will not appeal.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14878 ... d-30-games

NFBC owners were drafting Chapman as if he wouldn't miss any time at all. He was the 2nd closer going off the board, 70th overall, just 4 spots behind Wade Davis. Kenley Jansen was one pick behind Chapman and Craig Kimbrel was one pick after Jansen. That's definitely the top tier of closers, but you have to wonder if he will fall out of that tier and join the tier below that which includes Jeurys Familia (88), Trevor Rosenthal (90), Mark Melancon (94), Zach Britton (96) and Ken Giles (98). We'll find out in tonight's drafts.

How far do you think he falls?

People have also been drafting Carter Capps like his history of elbow problems and crazy pitching mechanics were nothing to worry about.



Not judging, since I own some shares as well. He's headed for an MRI.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/03/c ... evers.html


The people who have quietly been taking the discount on AJ Ramos probably feel a bit more secure now.

10th-11th round

He missed all of April in 2014 and put up 36 saves, 106 K's, 2.00 and .833.

I guess the risk here is there will be no immediate concern to transition to him as closer when he returns, since they're so capable to replacing him.

Chapman went 73rd and 80th in two drafts I saw last night, down slightly from his ADP of 68. Andrew Miller went 110th and 118th, up from his ADP of 156. We'll keep an eye on this situation over the next couple of days.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Chapman went 73rd and 80th in two drafts I saw last night, down slightly from his ADP of 68. Andrew Miller went 110th and 118th, up from his ADP of 156. We'll keep an eye on this situation over the next couple of days.

Would have expected a bigger drop-off for Chapman. Going late-5th round or early-6th round seems high for someone who is going to miss the first 30 games (and does he immediately become the closer as soon as the suspension is over?). Interesting. I'm currently thinking 7th round is about right.

Mike

I like the meta game going on here trying to get him to fall in drafts

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:I like the meta game going on here trying to get him to fall in drafts

He doesn't have to fall, if YOU take him in the 5th or 6th.

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:I like the meta game going on here trying to get him to fall in drafts

He went 86th in last night's Online Championship League and he was the 8th closer selected. That's a drop from being the 2nd closer picked. Surprisingly, Andrew Miller dropped to 184th. Hmmm.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:I like the meta game going on here trying to get him to fall in drafts

He went 86th in last night's Online Championship League and he was the 8th closer selected. That's a drop from being the 2nd closer picked. Surprisingly, Andrew Miller dropped to 184th. Hmmm.

8th huh? He's missing 30 games which is about what, 6-8 saves on the average? I suppose in leagues with short benches he should slip a little more. If you have a bench, it's not like you're getting nothing in his spot. Put in an top set-up guy and get elite ratios and maybe vulture a win'save or two. He still should be good for lower 30 saves.

Jansen did slip a bit last season, but his absence was injury related and his return was a little more cloudy.

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:I like the meta game going on here trying to get him to fall in drafts

He went 86th in last night's Online Championship League and he was the 8th closer selected. That's a drop from being the 2nd closer picked. Surprisingly, Andrew Miller dropped to 184th. Hmmm.

8th huh? He's missing 30 games which is about what, 6-8 saves on the average? I suppose in leagues with short benches he should slip a little more. If you have a bench, it's not like you're getting nothing in his spot. Put in an top set-up guy and get elite ratios and maybe vulture a win'save or two. He still should be good for lower 30 saves.

Jansen did slip a bit last season, but his absence was injury related and his return was a little more cloudy.

Allow me to go off subject here, then maybe Greg can restore order tomorrow with a Chapman/Miller update.
30 games is roughly 20% of the season.
It is the same period of time, roughly, that Michael Brantley is supposed to miss.
Brantley, before the extent of his surgery was known, started off being drafted in the fourth round. Now, he goes anywhere from the sixth to 12th rounds.
The injury provides a discount for his drafters and a 'Not Welcome' sign from those fearing time missed.

Why would a sane drafter NOT get a discount for Chapman?
He's missing time. Savvy drafters know that Chapman is providing 20% less stats, before the draft starts.
Speaking only of 30 man rosters for the Main Event, it is tough carrying any non-participating player.
It limits FAAB usage.
It shortens our roster.
Provides less choices.

Radio folks suggests 'handcuffs' as you have done.
When I hear them suggest things as, "If drafting Perkins, handcuff him with Jepson" or when Chapman got hit on the noggin in 2014, it was, "Make sure Chapman is handcuffed to JJ Hoover".
When I hear comments like these, I picture them as talking to non-NFBC folks.
Roster spots are vital.
Optimum, is the opposite of the very thing they preach. Which is NO handcuffs.
If we're spending a 5/6 round pick on Chapman at no discount, then using a set up guy in the 25th round to 'replace' Chapman, we are starting the season with a 25th round players stats and two rosters spots providing those stats.

This post isn't to drop Chapman's adp in future drafts.
Plain out, I wouldn't look for him without a discount.
It would be like buying a new car with a smashed windshield.
There's a defect.
Time wasted in fixing that defect should be compensable.
I know the engine is good and that it'll run great once on the road.
Same with Chapman.
But I want a discount if having to use a handcuff or lower pick for 20% of the season.

Likewise, when I listen to guys say "Player A" is just like "Player B" except for maybe 5-6 fewer SBs or HRs, or a .265 guy rather than .275 ... arguing they should be worth "about the same". Put together a couple of those "almost the same" types and the difference is winning versus losing your league.

Ya I think we agree he should drop question is how much. I think we can agree It drops him out of the 1st tier. I'd probably take familia over him now. Britton maybe. Guess it's a matter of opinion after that. Job security counts for something which he will have plenty of. Basically zero worry about him losing the job due to ineffectiveness. He was often the 1st Rp off the board in DC leagues. So falling is relative. From 1st or 2nd rp to 5th/6th? 8th seems like too much but I am stuck in DC/dynasty mode though. Like you said it'll be interesting in these leagues with short benches, cutline drafts and h2h leagues where he won't be available for a chunk of the fantasy regular season.

He'll be the first player I nominate in the auction...

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:Ya I think we agree he should drop question is how much. I think we can agree It drops him out of the 1st tier. I'd probably take familia over him now. Britton maybe. Guess it's a matter of opinion after that. Job security counts for something which he will have plenty of. Basically zero worry about him losing the job due to ineffectiveness. He was often the 1st Rp off the board in DC leagues. So falling is relative. From 1st or 2nd rp to 5th/6th? 8th seems like too much but I am stuck in DC/dynasty mode though. Like you said it'll be interesting in these leagues with short benches, cutline drafts and h2h leagues where he won't be available for a chunk of the fantasy regular season.

I'm not so sure about the job security piece. Yes, I still expect him to be the closer for roughly 5/6 of the season. But, the Yankees have two other elite relievers. So, Andrew Miller starts the season as the closer and let's say he goes 9 out of 9 or 9 out of 10 in saves opportunities and is pitching brilliantly. Chapman then comes back on May ?. Can he pitch in the minors during his suspension? Does he immediately take over as closer on Day 1 or does Girardi ease him into the role over a few weeks? Remember, he's got two studs; he doesn't have to rush Chapman back. Also, come July and August, when the weather's real hot, does Chapman get save opportunities on consecutive days or, because he walked a batter and made 20 pitches, does Girardi bring in Miller or Betances to keep Chapman fresh for the play-off run? I'm confident Chapman still will hit about 100 Ks and have great ratios. I'm just not sure he hits 40 or even 35 saves given the suspension and the other elite relievers that Girardi can choose from. (For all you non-Yankees fans, Girardi manages like he is - or thinks he is - the smartest guy in the room. Last year, a lot of folks drafted Betances very high in early DCs assuming he'd be the closer. I grabbed Miller on a bunch of teams in case Girardi went contrarian and it helped.). Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe Chapman is installed early as closer, the Yankees play a lot of close games and Chapman still gets 40 saves. He'd be a top 5 closer in that case, I suspect.

And, no, I am not saying this to drive Chapman's price down (as if I could). I'm on my tenth DC league and I haven't drafted him yet. I think I will probably discount him more than most and I'd be surprised if he falls to me in any big money leagues. As of last night, I had him ranked as my ninth closer. That could change, but I think for me his range is 7-11 in closer rankings. There are a lot of closers that can put up great ratios or at least come close enough so the difference on your team is pretty small when you're only talking 60 innings pitched. The extra Ks are nice, but the other top closers probably can come relatively close over six months compared to five months for Chapman. For me, the potential loss of 6-10 saves is a demerit, as is wasting a roster spot for a month. The question, I guess, is whether the extra Ks and better ratios (than some but not necessarily all top relievers) is worth the missing saves. Just my two cents.

Mike

Fwiw I was kidding about driving down his price...I think

Fun discussion. Appreciate everyone's opinion so far