Edwards King Main Event Blog

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Edwards Kings
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Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Sun Apr 03, 2016 7:40 pm

I just flew in from Las Vegas and boy are my arms tired!

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First and foremost, the obligatory (but greatly deserved) kudos to Greg, Tom, Mike, and the entire STATS! team. An amazing event, especially considering the extreme industry (and personal) challenges. We may be whiny sometimes ("But I don't WANT the 14th pick!") ...

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But for my part, I am enormously appreciative of the obvious effort.

There are several people I missed seeing this year like Dan, and Jeff and Dave Clum(to name a few). Do not let this happen again. If it does, i will send my team in to give you a "Godfather" type message!

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For all of those I did see..all the guys in my league like Dave Potts,who with Scott Waggener had to put up with me through two events!, Dave DiDonato, the improperly named Worst Russians Ever who tried to steal all of my picks but were such gentlemen about it, Rusty Clark on the other side trying to do the same, Dusty and Jake, Mike Duggan, Will Tyrer, Vlad...well, you get the idea. Great guys in a tough league.

Also great catching up with Jon Stadtmueller, Dan Semsel, Don Warner, Matt Shepard, Tom Warner, Ross Longwood, Jim Jeckewicz, Ken O'Brien, Rob Giese and the others from my Auction League. I like these guys so much, I left them a $20 tip!

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Goes with out saying seeing Glenn (who must love my main event team), Steve, Shawn, Mark, Gates, Nikko, and so many others it what really sets this event apart from the others. Mikey, great to see you man and congrats again!

So, after all that sucking up, how about my team? The last couple of years I set my strategy about a week before and will lock in this part of the blog. Not this year because I honestly had no clue. I got the 10th spot in the draft and from there you could really set yourself up any way you want. Unless you leave a TON of offensive talent on the table, you are probably having to play catch-up with pitching at the 3/4 turn, but other than that, it was a really good spot. Actually, this year more than any, I think the winner can come from any spot in the draft order.

A little more in general. I still believe your offense is established with six players. Get your base from those guys, the wide an plentiful "average" major leaguer can fill out your roster adequately. You may have to focus more on the 10-15 SB players or the 10-15 HR players depending on how the top six played out, but these are just variations on a theme. Taking it down to a even more general level, I felt like I needed to get three 30+HR types (most teams on average will have only two) and four 20+ HR types. I also needed to get at least four 20 SB types and four 10 SB types. Some players will fit both roles and all of my Big Six players will check off at least one box.

On pitching, no surprise most will not wait until the fifth or sixth round to start taking pitching like in the good old days when you only needed 1,200 K's to get 80% of available points. This is not to say someone could try this and succeed. One person in my league did and has a very nice looking team. I did not feel comfortable that I could pull it off. By the end of the sixth round I had three pitchers already. This year, after years of frustration trying to make it happen with two closers and rotating in a seventh starter (what do you call that thing when you try the same thing over and over and expect a different result?)....

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Anyway, I wanted to go with three relievers this year, though not necessary three closers. I targeted on player whom I think will fill that flex spot better than most...as I will note later.

Anyway, here is my team. Going in, I thought I would probably have as my best choices (in no particular order) Altuve, Stanton, McCutchen, or Rizzo. Based on small scale statistical inference, I had virtually no chance at the top eight (you know the big four plus Donaldson, Arrenado, Machado, and Correa). As in less than 7% on numbers six through eight and 0% on those generally picked five and above. The only guy I did not want was Correa. I am a believer, but not that high. Anyway, since this is the NFBC, I was proven wrong.

In my pre-draft planning (i.e. the morning of the draft) I thought the best player for me would be to grab Rizzo and hopefully get Marte (or Betts if I was real lucky). Odds were good and already had them locked and loaded in my mind. Well, Matt Dillon out of the Five Spot thought alot of Rizzo too, but I did not think one of the top eight would slip past those crazy Russians. The consensus choice for them was Stanton, which of course you cannot argue with their logic. That left me with the odd man out, Donaldson. It was all I could do not to grab my phone and check to see if his leg had recently fallen off. I took a leap of faith and selected him. Coming back around, I did not have the opportunity on Betts or Marte. Given the Pollock injury (sorry Jon!), I still wanted to get some speed with good pop, so I "reached" a little bit and grabbed Blackmon. Nice power, nice speed, nice base.

Now I was going to grab two pitchers. However, pitchers went insanely fast. After Kershaw, I felt there were 17 other pitchers that could reasonably fill the ace role. Twelve were gone by the time I got my third round pick, DeGrom. Strange to write he is a bit of a gamble given the reports that his fastball is down a couple of MPH. I am hoping he let go on the side and saved himself a bit during the spring training games. We will see. By this time there were only four pitchers left that I thought would absolutely require I grab one if they made it back to me after ten picks. Nope. Nada. So I changed up strategy a little bit and grabbed another hitter in Cespedes. Yes...two Mets already. I feel so cheap and ashamed.

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By the next turn, I grabbed a starter from that short, next tier, that may be just a bit behind the first tier, but not much. Cole Hamels who is my second guy who can give me a chance at at least 200 K's. Later I will need to find one more, especially if I am going to try to make it with six starters this year. On the flip, we were already in a closer run, four went before I picked Hamels, and two since. I grabbed....yes, another Met, Familia. The agony.

With this base (two great starters, one closer, good power, a speed player), I am to the point where I already want to construct a roster, not just chase stats or necessarily what the consensus would say is the best available player. In other words, not let the draft dictate who I would take. This is a bit of a change for me as well. Something Todd Zola wrote (good seeing you too Todd) I believe resonated. Attack the draft. So I did. I grabbed one of the few catchers who can help the team and anchor a difficult position to get production out of in Jonathan Lucroy. Then, to counterbalance my Mets, I took Tanaka. Getting a little risky here given his elbow,but his overall numbers promise to be too good to pass up. Feeling short a little on speed and willing to test my risk profile even more I grabbed Jacoby Ellsbury. I do not think '11 is in the cards, but with enough health to garner 550+ AB again, '14 over again will be just fine. And now more red meat, Lucas Duda.

At this point in the draft we were interrupted by a special messenger.

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Since six of my first ten picks play for NY teams, I have a been named an honorary citizen of Metropolis and the messenger was bringing me a tax bill.

The next ten picks was an attempt to round out and balance.

11th Smardizja (really think the SF gig will be good for him and me)
12th Daniel Murphy (should be batting in the 5th spot in Washington with good pop and hopefully a few SB will come back)
13th Brandon Crawford (I don't know if 20+ HR are possible, but he will hit for more than the average shortstop and I think more BA is in the offing) Murphy and Crawford make a nice middle infield anchor.
14th Arodys Vizcaino (I think he will be the man in Atlanta, such that that is).

There were two trend that I did not bite on. One, closers, even the ones we know are on shaky ground, went way too early in my opinion. The second was catchers. I think not biting on a second catcher early enough ended up biting me.

15th Jason Hammel (Solid pitcher on what I think is the team to beat in the Central)
16th Ian Kennedy (I do not expect the Royals to fold and Kennedy, control warts and all, can give me my third 200 k pitcher)
17th Dellin Betances (this is my swingman spot. May not close, but will give me ratio, ERA and K's much better than a mixed bag of streamers)
18th Alcides Escobar (SB and nothing but. Only 29. Could give me my third 30+ SB guy)
19th Hector Olivera (another Brave, but one I hope will be batting fourth in the near future. Inciarte, Aybar, Freeman in front. I mean the Dodgers and the Braves both saw SOMETHING, right?)
20th Avisial Garcia (Played his way back into relevance this spring and I guess I am drinking the Kool-Aide)

The next 10, like we all have a tendency to do, is fill the last few roster spots and try to 1) build for future needs and 2) cover risks.

21st Jason Castro (didn't participate in the second catcher run and this is the result. 2013 was not that long ago and is in a walk year. I will rely on other forms of superstition to rationalize this pick as well)
22nd Aaron Hicks (not sure if I buy Yankee Stadium being what propels him to relevance, but owning Ellsbury, this is a nice pick with a decent power/speed profile)
23rd Hyun-Jin Ryu (hoping for a nice addition/option in May)
24th Desmond Jennings (never can have too much speed. Another '13 repeat maybe?)
25th Brock Holt (he plays everywhere and is now or for now a starter, but what will he contribute?)
26th Billy Butler (you know, I think he will still play and at this stage 60/70 Runs and RBI's with 15+ dingers and a .260/.270 BA are a little thin)
27th Matt Adams (Sorry to see Pham leave the game, but if serious, more playing time for Adams should be the result. Still only 27 and another 15+ HR guy even if he only gets 425 AB.)
28th Jumbo Diaz (JJ Hoover? Really?)
29th Rusney Castillo (you know...YOU KNOW Boston will give him another chance. Look at Jackie Bradley!)
30th Matt Latos (I just cannot, even if I should, give up on this guy. What is the saying about what happens in Oakland? That's right, nobody cares. After his road game this week there, he may be my first drop)

Well, there it is. The first installment in my annual exercise in futility. Back to the real world tomorrow. I will go through the motions no matter how silly I look.

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Dat Bum » Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:50 pm

Thanks for sharing the play by play of your draft, Edwards. These things never go quite as you plan them! I drafted in Vegas on Thursday, 3/31 from the 13-spot. Going in, I was hopeful that Altuve, Stanton, or Miguel Cabrera would make it to me and felt there was a better than decent chance of that happening. Altuve went 6th overall, but sure enough I did end of having my choice of Stanton or Miggy. Stanton was the way I went with this in mind; Scherzer was who I hoped to land in the second round but I also had a feeling the 14 and 15 guys would target the power/speed combo OF's and that they'd leave Miggy for me as a consolation to my Scherzer target. I was sniped on Scherzer one pick ahead of my second round choice but was pleased to see my Miggy prediction come true. Stanton and Miguel Cabrera would be my anchors for this roster and I knew I'd be facing an uphill battle to lock down a pitching staff that could compete.

The third round saw the typical slew of ace level pitchers fly off the board. The way I see things, there are 16 top-level aces I'd want to anchor my staff and 14 of them were gone. This left me a choice of Greinke or deGrom. I think it would be close but I'm guessing about 55% of Main Event drafters would go with deGrom in that case. Not me. I wanted Greinke. deGrom's diminished velocity and seemingly higher chance for injury led me to go with the safer Greinke this time around. If deGrom happened to be there coming back, I'd be thrilled to have him and Greinke lead my staff. It wasn't to be. deGrom went on the turn and I went back to attacking hitting with Justin Upton. It was Upton or Frazier at that point and I figured if I'm counting on Miguel Cabrera to have a big year then it made sense that I just double up and go with Upton, keeping my eggs in the same basket.

In round 5 my target was Salazar who went two spots ahead of me. With him off the board I set my sights on either Carlos Martinez or Garrett Richards in round 7. Back to offense for me and Bogaerts/Polanco was who I had to choose between. I went with Bogaerts having already rostered two OF's with Stanton and Upton. I always planned to lock up a top-tier closer in the 6th round and Britton was the best one left on the board from my vantage point.

Onto round 7 and more disappointment with my starting pitcher targets. CMart and Richards were both gone. Back to offense I went. Fielder was my round 7 choice and I followed him up with Adam Eaton in round 8. Then finally in round 9 I locked up my second SP in Carlos Rodon. I like his upside but honestly would have preferred him as a #3 and not a #2 SP asI'd be counting on him for my roster. I was short on SB's at this point and Billy Hamilton, Burns, and Pillar had just come off the board ahead of my 9th/10th selections. Having gone Rodon in the 9th, I had my choice of Ellsbury or DeShields as decent speed plays in round 10. I told myself to limit health risks wherever possible and while I was a little tempted by how far Ellsbury had fallen I opted for DeShields. I feel DeShields is a bit of a boom or bust choice but also that he offers me a greater chance at getting the 40 SB's my roster seemed to really be in need of.

Time to really lock into some pitching. In round 11, 13, and 15 I went Odorizzi, McHugh, and JRoss. I mixed in a second closer (Casilla) in round 12 and reached a bit for Marcus Semien in round 14. At this point I'm feeling a little better about my rotation with Greinke leading the way followed by a group of decent #3 types in Rodon, Odorizzi, McHugh and JRoss. Something that stood out to me though was that I was clearly going to need a big impact RP to round out the trio I plan to roll with most weeks. Britton and Casilla seem like reasonable safe options but I was thrilled to lock up Andrew Miller in round 18. People were a little wary on him because of the recent wrist injury to his non-throwing hand and he had slid long enough. He didn't jive with my plan to avoid known injuries wherever I could but his shot at 95 K's, great ratios and a handful of saves was perfect for what my pitching staff needed having missed out on the two aces I hoped to roster through four rounds, having landed just Greinke. I'd later lock up Darren O'Day as well to ensure I get every save the Orioles have to offer in 2016. O'Day was also a bit of ratio and big-K padding in case my Andrew Miller play didn't work out as hoped. Buchholz and R.A. Dickey would be my other pitcher choices.

A couple hitters I was thrilled to lock up were Danny Valencia in round 17 and Eddie Rosario in round 19. I also landed Pedroia in round 16. One glaring weak spot on my roster was definitely going to be at the catcher position. My thought was that catching was going off the board even earlier than I could have imagined and I wasn't going to chase the position considering the rest of my offense was coming together quite nicely. My catcher situation as things stand is Pierzynski and the Conger/Casali combo. Hey, we all have weaknesses, right? Other choices for me are David Wright (my projected corner infielder), Solarte (a decent back up to Wright), Holt (a back up plan for Pedroia and someone with great position eligibility), Joey Rickard (Some extra SB potential for my roster) and JJ Hardy (bounce back candidate?).

All in all, I have a roster that I feel will be good for 10+ points in R, HR, RBI, and AVG, while being middle of the pack in SB's. Coming out of the draft, I'm a little surprised to find that I ended up with a staff that can compete for 10+ points in every pitching category as well. I feel my sneaky solid staff has a lot to do with my choices of an elite group of pen arms (Britton, Casilla, A Miller, O'Day).

I escaped this draft having dodged the unfortunate Pollock situation, sorry KJ. That one has to hurt. I feel my upside potential is tied to DeShields and Bogaerts on the hitting side and a potential breakout from Rodon on the pitching side. I'm honestly just hoping he's respectable. Of course there's always the chance Stanton goes for 50+ HR and 125 RBI. Him, Springer, or Correa are the three players I could see making a top-4 appearance starting next season. One can only hope Stanton is the 2016 version of Harper!

Thoughts???

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 04, 2016 6:47 am

Stanton, Miggy and Upton? Nice. Rock solid. I will be in there with you looking for catcher upgrades this year. I like your closer strategy. Nice coverage since the spot is very fluid. I will be in the mix for the FA closers as they come available (and they will). Love the Odorizzi, McHugh and JRoss middle of your rotation. I had real concerns on Wright so, even with Solarte, I think he is gonna break your heart. Last night, I saw Wright side arm a throw from deep in the hole and could not get Infante running. Back in the day, he would have torqued his body to get something on the throw, but not now. Teams are going to pick on him all year I think. That back of his is one swing/throw from DL. Just a shadow of his former self. I really wanted to get Flores this year as I think he will see more AB than Wright, but I missed out.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Dat Bum » Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:55 am

Edwards Kings wrote:Stanton, Miggy and Upton? Nice. Rock solid. I will be in there with you looking for catcher upgrades this year. I like your closer strategy. Nice coverage since the spot is very fluid. I will be in the mix for the FA closers as they come available (and they will). Love the Odorizzi, McHugh and JRoss middle of your rotation. I had real concerns on Wright so, even with Solarte, I think he is gonna break your heart. Last night, I saw Wright side arm a throw from deep in the hole and could not get Infante running. Back in the day, he would have torqued his body to get something on the throw, but not now. Teams are going to pick on him all year I think. That back of his is one swing/throw from DL. Just a shadow of his former self. I really wanted to get Flores this year as I think he will see more AB than Wright, but I missed out.
Wright is definitely the pick I am least proud of and I too question whether Solarte can adequately back him up. I've already subbed out Wright with the free-bee Sunday gone awry for him and put Holt in his place for the opening series. This could be my revolving door.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Doctor Who » Mon Apr 04, 2016 11:20 am

For a second, I had to re-look who was writing this blog, almost thought it was Lowry. How can a Brave fan take so many METS?!?!?! Blasphemy!

Great to see you Wayne, this HAS to be the year one of the bloggers wins it all!

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:22 am

Evidently the weather report for the first week of the baseball season was cloudy with a chance of oh shit.

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As such, I lost starts, AB, and my patience. So, to the weather, let me just…

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All of this is exacerbated by the fact I recognized some holes on my team and right now no way to fill them. Kind of starts when I let Scherzer get by me in the second (should have gone Scherzer then Gomez in the third, but that is the draft and that is behind me). Anyway, I almost hit most of my counting stat targets for week one despite only having collected 264 AB (36/9/33/5 for R/HR/RBI/SB) but boy did my average (lead by 1 fer sixteen Jason Castro) suck. There has already been five catchers picked up between the two FA sessions and guess what? They all suck too. I did not have Schwarber (truly sorry, Dave), nor Pollack (sorry Michael) so I guess I have little to really bitch about. Hopefully, I dodged the bullet on Donaldson.

On pitching, a little better as I hit all of my targets despite having less than 50 IP and thanks to Hamels great two start week. Fell short on Saves. Go figure. One of my closers is Vizcaino and due to a little known quirk in the rules, a team on which the closer plays actually has to win a game in order to have a chance at a save. Go figure.

While we (OK me) are on quirkiness in the game, let me say that two new trends rank right up there with me like my extreme dislike for the shift. One, using one of the best hitters in the two spot. Don’t see it, don’t like it, hope it is short lived. All you need in the two-hole (insert your own joke here) is a good contact hitter with decent OBP. Doesn’t have to hit HR or steal bases. That sets the table for the #3 and clean-up hitters.

The second thing is using your closer in “high risk” situations. If the 2-3-4 hitters are coming up in the 8th, use your closer there. Again, I don’t like it. I understand this a bit more, but I do not agree the game is more on the line in the 8th rather than the 9th, I do not care who is coming up.

Week 2 FAAB – Dryer than a nun’s bloomers. Just did not see anything out there I wanted to bid on, not even Philly closer-du-jour Gomez who went for $188. I already have one closer on a bad team and another in waiting (Diaz). In the long run, I like both of my closers/waiters better. We had one other $100+ bid (Cris Tillman) and, as evidenced by getting the same player for the same amount of money in at least two leagues, a man-crush on Max Kepler. Could have some fireworks in our league next week when Mazara is available.

Week 2 Plans – Given the way DeGrom left the game, I had already replaced him in my line-up for this week even before the announcement that they will be skipping his turn. Going with Matt Latos, who despite underwhelming speed on his heater, pitched a good game last week. Let’s see if he can replicate on the road again, but this time in Minnesota. The rest of the staff remains the same (Hamels, Hammel, Kennedy) with Samardizja and Tanaka getting two starts each. Betances, Familia, and Vizcaino are the relievers and I need more than the one save I got last week.

The only real change in bats is I am putting Holt in. Yes, this means I missed his big week which means he will suck this week, but my UT Billy Butler just isn’t playing much in Oakland.

Go Braves!

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Last edited by Edwards Kings on Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Glenneration X » Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:35 am

Doctor Who wrote:For a second, I had to re-look who was writing this blog, almost thought it was Lowry. How can a Brave fan take so many METS?!?!?! Blasphemy!

Great to see you Wayne, this HAS to be the year one of the bloggers wins it all!
LOL.... anyone who was trying to win was taking so many METS! :mrgreen:

Glad to see you're writing your blog once again Wayne. Keep up the great job on this and good luck with this team my friend. With so many Mets on it, it should be great news for the fans of the Blue & Orange if you end up being crowned Main Event Champ. ;)

And as always Bud, it was great seeing you again in Vegas.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by mattjb » Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:50 am

Thanks for sharing.

I've changed my mind about 327 times so far about Samardzija's two start week.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:52 am

Glenneration X wrote:And as always Bud, it was great seeing you again in Vegas.
Great seeing you too Glenn! I had to make an unexpected quick trip up to Long Island this week (just a couple of days) and as I drove by Citi yesterday evening I ALMOST pulled into the parking lot. It was raining a bit and cold, so I decided to head on out the LIE. I missed Matz breakdown, so I am kinda glad I did not stop. Saw much of it from the friendly confines of the bar in the hotel.

On question...which damn radio channel carries the damn Mets! I couldn't find it anywhere! :lol:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:00 am

mattjb wrote:Thanks for sharing.

I've changed my mind about 327 times so far about Samardzija's two start week.
Between the two of us, we break at least 500! But I am going with him, hell or high water!

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by mattjb » Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:25 am

Edwards Kings wrote:
mattjb wrote:Thanks for sharing.

I've changed my mind about 327 times so far about Samardzija's two start week.
Between the two of us, we break at least 500! But I am going with him, hell or high water!

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I think i'm joining you. I think he has a very good chance of the win and i'll just pray for not too much ERA damage.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by KJ Duke » Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:41 pm

mattjb wrote:Thanks for sharing.

I've changed my mind about 327 times so far about Samardzija's two start week.
I'm waiting for good Samardjia to show up.

Denver seems unlikely for that to happen, but maybe if he enters the game a bit more "chill" :ugeek: than normal he can keep from throwing those high and straight FBs.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by mattjb » Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:43 pm

KJ Duke wrote:
mattjb wrote:Thanks for sharing.

I've changed my mind about 327 times so far about Samardzija's two start week.
I'm waiting for good Samardjia to show up.

Denver seems unlikely for that to happen, but maybe if he enters the game a bit more "chill" :ugeek: than normal he can keep from throwing those high and straight FBs.
Really nice with everyone thinking AT&T was going to be so good for him that they line up his first two starts in Milwaukee and Colorado. :roll:

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by mattjb » Wed Apr 13, 2016 9:48 am

Never doubted Jeff for a minute :D

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Apr 13, 2016 10:49 am

Turns our Jeff is not the one I should've been worried about...

"Major League Baseball has placed Hector Olivera on administrative leave following his arrest Wednesday morning at the Braves' team hotel in Arlington, Virginia.
Olivera was taken into custody by the Arlington Police Department early Wednesday after a woman called 911 from the Ritz Carlton at Pentagon City claiming that she had just been assaulted. She had visible bruises, police sources told Jeff Goldberg of ABC7 in Washington, D.C. Major League Baseball has already opened its own investigation. Olivera obviously won't be active for Wednesday night's game at Nationals Park."

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:04 am

Four starts last night, three wins (Latos, Hammel, Kennedy). The only one not in the act was Cole Hamel. Still, for the four starts, three wins, 18 K's, 1.849 ERA, WHIP just under 1.00. I already have nearly 12% of the wins I got all last year.

Happy dance!

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by headhunters » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:29 am

that is what happens when you draft pitchers from good teams with good defense and good bullpens and pick up a guy that pitched well with a team that looks hot and is pitching against a team that is the opposite of hot. ya- wins are "luck' and batted ball profiles aren't.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by headhunters » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:32 am

and btw- you better not be expecting any wins from cole hamel.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:54 am

headhunters wrote:that is what happens when you draft pitchers from good teams with good defense and good bullpens and pick up a guy that pitched well with a team that looks hot and is pitching against a team that is the opposite of hot. ya- wins are "luck' and batted ball profiles aren't.
There were 34 pitchers that won at least 13 games last year.

"that is what happens when you draft pitchers from good teams with good defense..." I hear you, but that is a bit of a hindsight observation isn't it? Let's look at "good" teams. Based on that, and assuming a good team is a team that can be expected or at least is projectable to win their division, you might have been screwed. People were pretty high on Seattle in 2015 and they did have one guy to win a lot of games, but Seattle only ended up winning 76 games and had a 0.985 fielding percentage (19th out of 30 teams). Washington was pretty much a consensus pick to win that division, had two pitchers win 13 or more, but barely finished over .500 and had a mid-pack defense (0.985 as well and ranked 15th). While people were not really sure what would happen in the AL East, Baltimore was certainly in the conversation, but won only 81 games, had no pitchers win 13 or more, but had the second ranked defense and a perhaps the highest ranked bullpen.

On the flip side, the Mets were expected to be maybe second or third projected in the division, maybe a wildcard, but ended up with three guys with 13+ wins. The Mets defense was "ok" (ranked 12th) and the bullpen was ranked 13th. Texas was projected to finish at the bottom of the AL West, ended up with three pitchers with 13+ wins, but their defense was near the bottom (28th) and the bullpen was bad (24th).

It is true, teams that finished over .500 had 24 of the 34 pitchers winning 13+ games (only Minnesota didn't), but predicting who those teams will be in March/early April is the crapshoot. Of those teams that finished above .500 AND had a 13+ game-winner, only four had top 10 defenses (likewise, four had bottom 10 defenses, leaving five teams in the middle-tier of defenses).

I just do not believe there is a magic formula ("good" team plus good defense plus good bullpen equals a better shot at wins). I believe it is the pitchers themselves that are most responsible for whether or not they win, so I do admit to drafting skills.

And yes, Cole Hamels is probably the unluckiest pitcher I can remember. He should change his name to "Navin".

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But Texas did have THREE 13+ game winners last year! :lol:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by headhunters » Sat Apr 16, 2016 10:49 am

you put cole hamel- i was referring to that - not cole hamels. honestly i glanced at your numersish- but apples to apples would be innings pitched on winning teams with good d's AND are those teams winning because of great pitching. seattle sd to some extent the white sox and a few others are just not teams i would spend a lot of time lamenting not getting wins- which i see guys on the boards doing. if it is happening year after year i would look at the way i was drafting. those pitchers come at a discount because players are shading them because of win environmemt. sale quintana king felix and most san diego pitchers just struggle for wins year after year. washington stuggled because other than harper- the offense stunk and the defense with desmond at short stop was pretty average. kenny williams just can't understand that the sox have to catch the ball and the bullpen can't be awful. i guess he thinks sale should k 18 every time out. i think hahn gets it- the sox d is now about average- eaton is no longer awful in center garcia is no longer awful in left. 3rd base is no longer manned by a doubleA player and rollins is probably an upgrade over alexi. bottom line- i just think you have to look at a mix on a fantasy team instead of just drafting pitchers in pitching parks and then wondering why they can't get wins. on the white sox- i watch sale A LOT. i really believe he could strike out 12-15 and pitch 6 innings every time out. he as much as said that last night. he does not think that is best for the team. he literally just " throws it up there " and says hit it about half the time now. last year the sox couldn't hit, couldn't play d and had a crap bullpen. i never bitched he couldn't get wins- it was pretty obvious why. this year i would be over the moon if i had a philly, milwaukee, san diego or atlanta pitcher get 13+ wins. and just because people thought miami might be better- when you have that infield- do you really expect them to score runs? just my thoughts. ps- one great thing about the numbers guys- what they look at already happened. the guys that win this thing at good at figuring out what will happen.

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 18, 2016 6:45 am

Two weeks in and already big changes in my team. Billy Butler and Matt Adams are not playing above the occasional start and pitch hit. Hector Olivera is in Phantom Zone with Jose Reyes until MLB decides how serious his misdemeanor battery charge is. Jacob DeGrom is dealing with fuzzy physical issues and deep personal ones (the good news for the deGroms is they hope to take Jaxon home from the hospital on Monday). And Charlie Blackmon has a toe boo-boo. He needs to come back in a hurry!

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As such, it is not surprising I am in the middle of the pack.

Week 2 Results – Having lost at least two starters on offense (Olivera and Blackmon), I have had to rely on Holt (who has predictably cooled), Hicks (only occasional AB) and Butler even though he is not getting full time at-bats. No surprise that this week I did not get 300 AB (265) and missed badly on HR and RBI. I did hit my SB target thanks to Ellsbury and Escobar, but without Blackmon, I do not expect to keep up the pace. For the year I am limping in with a week BA (0.251), a few runs shy of where I want to be, and a half week behind in HR and RBI. Early on, my team is being carried offensively by Donaldson, Cespedes, and Daniel Murphy to a certain extent. Lucas Duda and Jonathan Lucroy are MIA and on them being able to find a roadmap to actually show up in a ballgame are what I am pinning my hopes on to make up some ground in the power stats.

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"I knew I should've made that left turn in Albuquerque!"

Pitching is a little better story, at least as far as the starters go. No DeGrom, but the others (Hamels, Tanaka, Samardzija, Hammel, and Kennedy) are keeping the wheels on. I used Latos last week with good result, but I know the longer I use him, the shorter the fuse to the powder keg will be. Betances as my seventh pitcher is giving me starter K’s. Familia got me two saves, but it is clear the Mets are not in stride yet and neither is Familia, who is not as dominate as last year. Vizcaino picked up a save, but the Braves used him this week so much prior to that first win, he was only able to save one game. So far for the short year, I am doing well in ERA and WHIP, about one start short on K’s, just a little above target on Wins (though I know I will not be able to maintain a 60% win rate) and short a weeks’ worth of saves.

Week 3 FAAB – Since my league already had Nomar Mazara and Kevin Jepsen locked up (both drafted), we did not have some of the fireworks other leagues had. YTD, we have had only two winning bids over $100, so everyone is basically still fully funded. Interesting this week is that the top fifteen winning bids by dollar amount so far this year each had a runner up bid, save one. This week, the top seven each had runner up bids with the largest different between the top bid and the runner up being only $23, so no one has made any big faux pas yet. I placed a token bid on Saltalamacchia ($13) in the hopes he would toss in a few HR for me. He went for $39 with a runner up of $32. Not sure he is an upgrade on what I had (Castro), so not too upset here. I dropped Adams, Butler, and Olivera. I picked up Wilmer Flores ($13 no runner-up bid), Kelly Johnson ($13 no runner-up bid) and Nick Ahmed ($3 and my third choice after Saltalamacchia and Kiki). Ahmed has lucked his way into three HR already, so I am hoping for a few more lucky swings on a glove-mainly guy who did show a little speed in the minors. Flores is full-time AB waiting to happen. I hope I can hold onto him long enough to get the benefit. Kelly Johnson is back in Atlanta, and between LF, maybe 3B, and 2B he can generate a few more stats until Atlanta trades him to someone who needs a utility guy again (the Braves got two minor league righties for him and Uribe last year from the Mets in a rental…John Gant and Rob Whalen…Saw Gant pitch yesterday down in AAA).

Week 3 Plans – In order to pick up some K’s and derisk my win percentage, I am going to have to start streaming my starters to emphasize those two start weeks. My challenge is I only have six healthy starters. There was not much attractive out there in the FA pool for options so I will light the rocket on Latos again, who is pitching at home against the Angels and Rangers. Let us (OK, me) hope the clock does not strike mid-night (though right now, it looks like two-thirds of us are drinking the kool-aide). DeGrom “may” pitch an “abbreviated” start versus Atlanta (it appears the physical problems have subsided), but I will wait until next week to start him. Ryu, who is my other bench pitching option, had a set-back last week. I still hope by the end of April/early May he becomes an option. I will probably start four guys every week no matter what, and then stream the other two spots.

Bats are easy this week. If you are playing, you are in. Hurry back Charlie Blackmon! There were a couple of interesting drops this week that I may pick up off the trash heap.

And the Braves sweep the Marlins! The Braves are now 3-0 in games in which they score more runs than their opponents! The Bravo's are looking improve their defense though...

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:05 am

You know, I have seen written here on these blogs several times that “I don’t check the standings until May or June!”

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:D :lol: You may recognize there are still big swings but you check….you KNOW you check. It is not in the nature of our collective beasts to not be fully absorbed by how our teams are doing and where we are in relation to the people we are in competition with. Obsession is not a part-time job. And checking, even the standings, even when you know they do not count, is part of the fun. So c’mon…admit it.

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History of the World Part 1, King Louis XVI: Come on, you do it. You love to do it. We all do it. You do it...

Week 3 Results – Not that I am checking, I sit mid-pack in my league. For batting, it is amazing I was able to generate as many counting stats as I did given the collective 0-42, 1 RBI performance out of Jason Castro, Avisail Garcia, and my UT spot. I actually hit my RBI and SB (almost) targets but fell short of Runs (31) and HR (7). BA also sucked at 0.240 on 275 total AB. It is scary to be ½ week behind in HR, RBI and Runs only three weeks into the season. The 0.248 team BA is also disappointing. I only have four of my guys/positions hitting above 0.258. I am down three starters which is a condition we have to expect. Consistent with prior year, I have not replaced those players adequately. The one big surprise is that I am hitting my SB targets even with Blackmon still out. This is luck as Jacoby Ellsbury has five stolen bases (including a straight steal of home) despite the fact he only has a 0.290 OBP and Alcides Escobar has four with a 0.268 OBP. I will take the luck but cannot wait for Blackmon to get back.

On pitching, that is where the real luck resides. Starting with the bad news however, I am down a week and a half of “planned” saves primarily because the Braves cannot win (Vizcaino has one save). For the year Familia has five, but he has not looked too good. It is early, but without some significant improvement soon, I may ditch saves. On starters, I have used six spots (Hamels, Kennedy, Hammel, Samardzija, Tanaka and DeGrom/Latos). Losing my #1 starter for two weeks has been smoothed over by the resurgent Mat Latos (18.3 IP, 12 hits, .982 ERA, 3 wins in 3 GS with only 2 ER, .982 WHIP on 6 walks with 11 strikeouts). Yes, I targeted Latos. Yes, these results were unexpected. Yes, this is luck. In general, I have been on the lucky end of the equation with regards to wins. In 23 total GS, I have gotten 15 wins or a 65% win rate. Compared to unlucky last year, I had 65 wins out of 221 GS or 29%. In short, I know my win rate (wait for it Dan) will regress. Making the 100 or so wins I want to get will be a challenge using only six starters for most of the year, so while 65% is great, it is like a 35% hit rate for batters…it is simply unsustainable (either that or I become the first NFBC team to have six 20-game winners on the same team!). I hope to maintain, by the end of the year, at least a 50% win rate. I think that is doable. The nicest thing about my six-starter strategy is I have been able to stay on-target with strikeouts. Targeting about 55 a week in order get to 1,400 K’s (necessary to get the 80% of available points in the category), I have 163 K’s YTD. And that is with DeGrom for only one start. What helps is of the five players on my staff with greater than 20 K’s YTD, one is Betances, who also has given up zero earned runs and has a 0.778 WHIP (and a loss, go figure). If wins becomes a challenge or as I try to make up saves, I may have to sit Betances, but for now, I will gratefully accept his help in three categories.

Week 3 FAAB – I am already where I did not want to be in having to churn a few positions. One, trying to find another source of saves. I had Jumbo, but he will not generate saves for me in the minors. Three closers-in- waiting were chosen last week. I bid ($13, no second place) on Andrew Bailey. I do not know how valuable a closer in Philly will be this year, but I have no faith in Gomez. I had a long list of potential choices. I got my number one. My number two was Caleb Cotham, who was picked up for $39. What made him my number 2 was I was not sure how much value a Cincy closer would be either, but I like the starters in Philly better. Coin toss really. My number three was Mark Lowe for Detroit (a very smart man got him for $10). Somehow I feel certain this will not be the last week we end up trolling for saves.

I also went for three bats who may be able to help my team, but as it were, I got my only one. I bid $15 on John Jaso (sad to think I thought he was one of the better alternatives) who is only owned in about two-thirds of the leagues. He has shown good BA and has already seven extra base hits this year. And there are four games coming in Colorado. He may only play four games out of six, but he is better than what I had.

I lost out on Coco Crisp, who is playing pretty good ball. We all know he will get hurt, but he was a nice pick-up for my friend Mike Duggan. I was not even the runner up bid. I ended up with my second choice Lonnie Chisenhall. Right now he is hitting down in the line-up and hasn’t looked so great. In the longer term, I expect him to get most of the bats in right field and will at least be on the right side of the platoon. I hope to only need him on my bench soon as can give me a back-up at 3B as well as the OF.

I was the runner up bid on Jed Lowrie. Undervalued a little bit now, he is another multiposition player that looks better on your bench than in your line-up. My consolation prize is Daniel Castro. Strictly bench meat, he may be a decent source of runs as he is hitting up some days in the powerful Braves lineup.

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Yeah, I couldn’t keep a straight face either.

Week Four Plans – My only pitching change will be to insert “Boo” DeGrom in for Latos. The Latos charm will have to wear off soon and a road game in Baltimore just might do the trick. Jaso goes in at DH and Chisenhall in at CI. Will continue to troll the FA pool for players with more upside. Donaldson and Duda are my other corners. Murphy, Crawford and Escobar are in the middle. I hope Cespedes is not seriously injured as I could not really afford another OF injury. I am also waiting for Cinderella to wake up (Avisail) but I think I hooked up with an ugly step sister instead. Desmond Jennings and Jacoby Ellsbury are also starting. Which leaves Holt still as my fifth outfielder until Blackmon is activated. All in all, I feel my outfield has a decidedly patch-work feel. Still, I think outside of Donaldson and Cespedes, my bats overall are underperforming.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by RotoGut-Vlad » Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:49 am

Wayne, truly enjoy this blog and reading about our league from your perspective. It's a rough start here, but, like you said, it's early. Nice work.

Vlad

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 02, 2016 7:08 am

A month gone. Four weeks. Almost too late to say it is still early. Patterns should be developing, weaknesses showing, strengths emerging.

For my team? Ehhhh….

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Ok. Not that bad, but I honestly do not know whether to shit or go blind when it comes to my bats. Are my bats, as a whole, underperforming so I had a hot streak around the corner? Or am I screwed? We cannot just redo, so all I can concentrate on is looking for ways to upgrade.

For my catchers, I truly was not expecting zero home runs by this stage from Lucroy and Castro. Lucroy is giving me BA, which is in short supply on my team, but other than runs (tied for third among catchers) is giving little else. Castro has given me stats that I would like to scrap off of my shoe, but he did hit 0.300 last week in limited (10 AB) use with four runs. So much for his FA year.

Among cornermen, Donaldson has been hot and with the possible exception of Arenado has been the best in the early going. Duda has been his frustratingly streaky self, one big week, the rest so-so. Starting out the year with Hector Olivera as my third cornerman, I had hopes that his hitting pedigree from Cuba that both the Braves and the Dodgers were so high on would show up. It did, but unfortunately is showed up in the lobby of the Ritz. I have runs a couple of replacement ball players out there, most recently Jaso, whom I thought would be a good source of BA and Runs at least. Last week, despite a 0.190 BA he did hit two HR, so mixed results here.

For MI, I went Daniel Murphy (got out of the gate with a bang, and has been pretty much empty BA since), Brandon Crawford (not looking like the batter he was last year) and Alcides Escobar (six stolen bases which almost equals his runs scored of seven despite hitting at the top of the line-up). Bland, boring, unexceptional.

And outfield has been the worst. Only Cespedes has been producing. Only Cespedes in this group has a BA over .247. And Cespedes missed some time. Blackmon is just back. Ellsbury got out of the gate running, but nothing lately and the Yanks are not scoring runs. Avisail Garcia has been asleep at the wheel, but did wake up a bit last week hitting .444. Desmond Jennings is O-for-everything. Soon to be…

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...dropped if he does not turn it around. I will have less patience with him that I do with Garcia.

And my biggest foul-up to date is at Utility. I cannot locate a solid 14th bat. Really stepped in it there...

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Streamer city going forward. This week? Lonnie Chisenhall.

As I sit right now, I am way down on BA, a half week down on Runs and RBI’s, and a week down on HR. Even just getting Blackmon back, I am only one SB down on my targets.

The fact I am in the middle of the pack is due to my pitching. With my starters currently winning 62% of their games, I am doing well in Wins. With it comes a YTD starter ERA of 2.459 and a WHIP of 1.126. DeGrom, Hammel, Tananka (the only unlucky guy with only one win in five starts) and Latos (yes, I sat him last week luckily) have been golden. Kennedy, Hamel and Samardizja have been merely human. Hamel is the only starter with a WHIP over 1.255. However, despite the wins, the lack of starts is starting to show on strikeouts. I was maintaining until last week and am now down a dozen or so. I may need to stream a few more starts in the next few weeks to make it up. The eight starts so far by Samardizja and Latos have held the K’s down a bit too as all the others have K/9 ratios above 8.0.

I have been singing the praises of Dellin Betances but boy did he get tagged the last couple of days. Still, he is fifth on my team in K’s. Familia seems to have righted the ship, but his 1.500 WHIP is a drag. Vizcaino has given up only one run (yesterday) and that ended up giving him a win. I needed the save. He also has a 1.500 WHIP. I am down about four saves (Vizcaino has two, Familia eight).

Week 4 FA – There were, as expected, a couple of big bids. A team tied with me in saves (only six saves separate eight teams) won Joe Smith lottery with a $278 bid (runner up $149).

I was not the runner up, but I did place a $100+ bid. I did see an opportunity, at least short term that might come a bit cheaper in Darren O’Day. My winning bid was $52 with a runner up of $47, so I guess I priced that one about right. Brandon Drury went to a very smart player for $178. The runner up bid was $157. I bid, but I imagine mine was way down in the pack and I bet most of us bid on Drury. There was a lot of talk about Derek Dietrich and it paid off. He went for $113 (runner up of $93). I am not so high on him but he was my second conditional after Drury. I won my first conditional Kevin Plawecki ($33, with a $13 runner up). I am hoping he can give me a little more out of catcher than Castro. A dead man can give me more than Castro, so odds are good.

Starters were the most sought after commodity with seven of the top eleven bids. Aaron Blair, Michael Fulmer, Tyler Duffey, Dan Straily, Jon Gray, Cesar Vargas, and Daniel Norris all went for between $35 and $62 and all had second place bids except Norris. Lots of lessor bids on closers-in-waiting. Rolling the dice!

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Still lots and lots and lots of money out there. YTD, only five $100+ winning bids out there and only one of those over $188.

With 31 players released back to the FA pool this week, odds are a few were players that the owners probably would have liked to held onto, but circumstances required some hard choices.

Week 5 Plans – No real changes. Probably use Holt in place of Jennings. Going with Chisenhall at UT. On pitching, DeGrom, Hammel, Tananka, Kennedy, Hamel and Samardizja will be my starters. Unless someone else has there start pushed back, I will get eight starts, so K's should not be an issue. I could go with Latos who has a favorable home start against the Twins, but as I have O’Day, I may as well use him for the short window he has save changes. Betances will sit and hopefully Ryu will make some rehab progress. I like Glenn's blog on Baseball HQ and the conversation he and Steve had about sitting on players (i.e. don't as reserve spots are too valuable). Makes sense, especially if I locate other players who can help me in the upcoming week. May be a strategy change. Then maybe I can have some fun.

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards King Main Event Blog

Post by headhunters » Mon May 02, 2016 11:35 am

somebody bid $102 on castro in chitown- hope they don't read your blog. maybe it was starlin' castro.

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