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Okay, it's time to make sure everyone understands the importance and value of setting their KDS preferences (it stands for Kentucky Derby System). With every NFBC draft -- including the satellite leagues -- owners can set their KDS preferences according to where they'd like to draft. EVERY league will still be drawn randomly for the draft spots, but then we'll apply your KDS preferences after that to set the final drafting order for each league.



If you haven't set your preferences yet, do this:



Click on your team link.



Then go to MY SETTINGS (top right)



Pull down to DRAFT PREFERENCES



Then you'll see the order listed 1 through 15. If you'd rather change that, do so. Something like: 1, 2, 3, 15, 14, 7, 8, 9, 4, 5, 6, 13, 11, 12, 10.



Okay, let's find out where everyone would like to draft this year. Please vote once for your favorite KDS preference and feel free to post more info on this thread. Nobody is giving away any secrets with this info, so let's have fun with this.

I think the key here is YOUR preferences.



If you think having Albert Pujols is absolutely the best way to start the draft, then you vote for pick #1



If you would rather have two of the top twenty players, then you would vote for spots in the 11-15 range ahead of earlier choices.



Some drafters prefer to have picks "on the turn" where you have two picks together at the end/beginning of a round or very close to that. Others would prefer to not have as many picks before their next one and would thus rather have a pick in the middle of each round.

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I think the key here is YOUR preferences.



If you think having Albert Pujols is absolutely the best way to start the draft, then you vote for pick #1



If you would rather have two of the top twenty players, then you would vote for spots in the 11-15 range ahead of earlier choices.



Some drafters prefer to have picks "on the turn" where you have two picks together at the end/beginning of a round or very close to that. Others would prefer to not have as many picks before their next one and would thus rather have a pick in the middle of each round. You have me confused with those earth shattering revelations- can you explain further how you want to position yourself in 11-15 if you want one of the top 20 players? Thanks

For me it is an annual thing. My comfort zone is and has always been in the middle (7,8,9). It helps me with a balanced team and I am not so much impacted (left out of) position/stat runs that will occur. However, this becomes my starting point.



Pujols would be nice, but negative impacts (i.e. number of players off the board between picks) of drafting around the corner can set in after leading off the third round.



Several teams drafted very successfully from the 12 - 15 slots last year. Seems many of those were chasing speed or felt Soriano was due. I think they were right and some very solid teams came from those slots.



This year, it seems some real impact players are slipping closer to the middle with the ascention of Reyes and Howard. I think the middle is going to be the place to be.

The biggest mistake I think people make with KDS is thinking about it as a what do I want to do in round 1?



KDS is more about where you think the value is in rounds 2-4. Going beyond those rounds is pure speculation but like it or not most nfbc drafts have the first 60 picks coming from a player pool of about 65. It is actually quite predictable.



If you think the value really drops between players in the late 40's and early 50's. I would not want to be at the end of the order etc.



After that as Wayne referenced there is a lot of value being in the middle. The value in being at the ends is getting lucky and having a Big Dog type sitting next to you and you can keep sliding people by him.



MY KDS breakdown of importance:



What I can do in round 1? 20%

What can I do in rounds 2-4? 50%

How does it effect me later IE advantage of being in the middle for runs etc? 30%

The results are pretty interesting thus far. Even though the majority of winners came from the lower part of the draft last year, only four of the first 28 votes in this poll, picks spots 9 through 15 as their top preference. No. 1 still leads the way and most folks want to start near the top of the draft order.



Is anyone else surprised or do most of us just feel more comfortable near the top of the draft order?



Again, I wouldn't mind seeing some KDS picks and explanations for your 15 in order. Let's see some thoughts on this year's KDS.

I do agree with Chest. It's not all about round 1. The next few rounds figure more into it than the first round. Once you get down in the draft (past round 10) I don't think it matters much anymore where you are. I also think you can win from any slot. I got my last choice last year and won anyway. I practiced from all slots before knowing what I would get, so was ready for whatever. Also tried different strategies and found you can make almost anything work if need be. I don't like to take ace pitchers early, but tried drafting Santana in round 1 and found you can build a fine offense anyway. Knowing what pick you have in advance just let's you put the finishing touchs on whatever strategy you decide to go with.

Sorry if I was too cryptic for you CR - but your reply is mud as well





While I may change some persepectives in the next few weeks, if I had to submit a KDS for 2007 today it would look like this:



5 - Best value in first half of the draft (with Pujols gone you will get either Reyes, Soriano, ARod or Crawford)

8 - Like several others I do prefer the middle of the draft. You might have a shot at Santana or Utley here

7 - Better shot at Santana here or Ryan Howard or Miggy

9 - likely a 3B choice here - Miggy or Wright

1 - Albert is the best but I will hate it while the next 28 picks are made

4 - Guaranteed a Stud

3 - I will take who the first two leave me and pick ahead of them in round two

2 - Take your pick after Pujols

10- ADP says you get a very good hitter here in round one and Carlos Lee, Hafner or Abreu on the way back

11- Likely Vlad or Papi - I like both

6 - Johan's perch

12- Berkman, Papi, or Beltran (+Sizemore on the way back)

13- Beltran is the ADP favorite here but there are no bad choices

15- The best thing here is getting two of the top 16 - the bad part is waiting 28 more picks, but you can double dip every time up

14- My least favorite, but round two will be Very good



[ February 08, 2007, 05:41 PM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

Very nice reasoning above. The one area where I'm still pondering is 8-10. The middle is nice, but like you said Hook, good 3B value here. The problem I have with using 1st round on 3B is there are many 1-2 rounds 3B available this year, so I'd rather pass on 3B in 1st RD.

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Sorry if I was too cryptic for you CR - but your reply is mud as well





While I may change some persepectives in the next few weeks, if I had to submit a KDS for 2007 today it would look like this:



5 - Best value in first half of the draft (with Pujols gone you will get either Reyes, Soriano, ARod or Crawford)

8 - Like several others I do prefer the middle of the draft. You might have a shot at Santana or Utley here

7 - Better shot at Santana here or Ryan Howard or Miggy

9 - likely a 3B choice here - Miggy or Wright

1 - Albert is the best but I will hate it while the next 28 picks are made

4 - Guaranteed a Stud

3 - I will take who the first two leave me and pick ahead of them in round two

2 - Take your pick after Pujols

10- ADP says you get a very good hitter here in round one and Carlos Lee, Hafner or Abreu on the way back

11- Likely Vlad or Papi - I like both

6 - Johan's perch

12- Berkman, Papi, or Beltran (+Sizemore on the way back)

13- Beltran is the ADP favorite here but there are no bad choices

15- The best thing here is getting two of the top 16 - the bad part is waiting 28 more picks, but you can double dip every time up

14- My least favorite, but round two will be Very good You make my point for me your whole post is about the 1st round. No problem with you calling my post mud it may be but what specifically did you disagree with me and my main man Vander on...

Chest it is not about just the first round - I would say the first three rounds are Very formful - after that you know that each draft will take its own twists and turns and nothing will be predictable.

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Sorry if I was too cryptic for you CR - but your reply is mud as well





While I may change some persepectives in the next few weeks, if I had to submit a KDS for 2007 today it would look like this:



9 - likely a 3B choice here - Miggy or Wright

10- ADP says you get a very good hitter here in round one and Carlos Lee, Hafner or Abreu on the way back

13- Beltran is the ADP favorite here but there are no bad choices Just curious... what you are basing your ADP assumptions on here?



--you say a 3B at #9 in Wright or Cabrera, but ADP consensus I've seen has them going at #12 & #13



--you say Lee/Hafner/Abreu at #21 (from 10 hole), but the ADP I see is Lee at 15, Hafner at 16 & Abreu at 26



--you point to Beltran as the choice at #13, but the ADP consensus I see has him going at #8 or #9

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Chest it is not about just the first round - I would say the first three rounds are Very formful - after that you know that each draft will take its own twists and turns and nothing will be predictable. Please define formful.

I don't have much to add here except to say I completely agree with Chest's analysis and to take it an inch farther and say that every year people are trying to find the best spot to draft from as though there is one true answer, but that changes year-to-year, depending on who is available and when and it changes for each individual depending on how he plans to build his team going forward.

Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't have much to add here except to say I completely agree with Chest's analysis and to take it an inch farther and say that every year people are trying to find the best spot to draft from as though there is one true answer, but that changes year-to-year, depending on who is available and when and it changes for each individual depending on how he plans to build his team going forward. Agreed again. The strategy changes every year depending on circumstances. Something I forgot this year in the first few drafts I participated in. I played them like last year. Things are now different and you must change as necesary.

Originally posted by RODGER:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Sorry if I was too cryptic for you CR - but your reply is mud as well





While I may change some persepectives in the next few weeks, if I had to submit a KDS for 2007 today it would look like this:



9 - likely a 3B choice here - Miggy or Wright

10- ADP says you get a very good hitter here in round one and Carlos Lee, Hafner or Abreu on the way back

13- Beltran is the ADP favorite here but there are no bad choices Just curious... what you are basing your ADP assumptions on here?



--you say a 3B at #9 in Wright or Cabrera, but ADP consensus I've seen has them going at #12 & #13



--you say Lee/Hafner/Abreu at #21 (from 10 hole), but the ADP I see is Lee at 15, Hafner at 16 & Abreu at 26



--you point to Beltran as the choice at #13, but the ADP consensus I see has him going at #8 or #9 [/QUOTE]Where are YOU getting your ADP information?

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Chest it is not about just the first round - I would say the first three rounds are Very formful - after that you know that each draft will take its own twists and turns and nothing will be predictable. Please define formful. [/QUOTE]The first round (as of now - admittedly we are a month away from drafting) is 13/15 pretty much a lock. I doubt you disagree with this.



There are more fluctuations in round two, but the same fifteen players are late round one; round two; perhaps an odd one in early round three.



In round three probably 11/15 are the same in every meaningful* draft and then the diffusion will start to change league by league.

I pretty much agree with the Captain on his breakdown of who will GENERALLY be available in each section of the first couple of rounds. Overall,I still think the middle give the best strategic value over the course of the entire draft as it gives you better options to punch (try and start runs, gamble on players in advance of thier proposed ADP) or counterpunch (react to the flow of the draft as it comes around from the corner draft positions).



Picks six through ten - you are going to get your choice of pretty much anyone this year except I imagine Pujols and Reyes. Any number of players MAY slip to here including Howard and ARod. If not, there is a good chance for Johan or Utley (if you are playing the position scarcity gambit). If not, not too many will cry about having Vladdy, Wright, Beltran, Pappy, Cabrera.

Picks 11 through 15 - Next favorite spot because if any fall from the middle, you are there waiting "...jus'like a spider!" and coming around the corner there are opportunities to fill power (Hafner), speed (Rollins), position scarcity (Jeter), balance (Sizemore), or former first rounders (Manny-man).

Picks 1 through 5 - the world is your oyster in round one and if you had a list of your top 35 or 40 players you would like to have, I all but guarentee two of them will be left when you come back for round Two or Three. After that, I feel this is the counterpunchers territory. My least favorite. You are gambling a bit more here as the opportunity cost of missing out on the next 20-28 players is high. Just ask those who drafted Soriano number 1 in '04.



Facts:



1) You can win from anywhere because over the course of the draft, whether or not you got Pujols will be just one event in a series of strategic picks.

2) You have to have a strategy for the whole draft.

3) Your strategy had better be flexible because of so many variables.

4) KDS is just one of those variables.

5) Your KDS will help you with the core picks (first five to ten rounds depending on who you talk to) in establishing your overall strategy (power first, speed first, pitching emphasis).

6) Wayne Edwards will have a steak (ribeye, MR) and several glasses of Merlot (suggestions Perry?) after the draft before pounding the poker room again.

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:



6) Wayne Edwards will have a steak (ribeye, MR) and several glasses of Merlot (suggestions Perry?) after the draft before pounding the poker room again. Depends on where Wayne goes for the steak, but I tend to like the merlots from Sonoma, so try and find:

1) Ferrari Carano

2) St. Francis Reserve

3) Barnett Vineyards (Napa)

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:



6) Wayne Edwards will have a steak (ribeye, MR) and several glasses of Merlot (suggestions Perry?) after the draft before pounding the poker room again. Depends on where Wayne goes for the steak, but I tend to like the merlots from Sonoma, so try and find:

1) Ferrari Carano

2) St. Francis Reserve

3) Barnett Vineyards (Napa) [/QUOTE]Thanks...If I can't find them there, you can bet I'll stock some for the home front!

I hate to interrupt the wine portion of the program, but to add on to the KDS and more than one round discussion, I went back to a recent article where I quoted some (qualified) ADP and put the first three rounds together. Here is what they would look like:



Pick#..Round One....Round Two....Round Three

1.....Pujols.......V. Wells.....Atkins

2.....Reyes........M. Ramirez...A.Ramirez

3.....Soriano......Tejada.......Mauer

4.....Howard.......H. Ramirez...Morneau

5.....ARod.........Furcal.......V. Martinez

6.....Crawford.....Bay..........A. Jones

7.....Santana......Rollins......Konerko

8.....Utley........D. Lee.......Figgins

9.....M. Cabrera...Abreu........M. Young

10.....Wright.......Hafner.......C. Delgado

11.....V. Guerrero..C. Lee.......Pierre

12.....D. Ortiz.....Ichiro.......Damon

13.....Beltran......Sizemore.....Nathan

14.....Berkman......Holliday.....Oswalt

15.....Jeter........Teixeira.....Carpenter



Comments?

Good post....



Personally I find the whole argument about choosing pick locations interesting. Here is the argument on this:



If the talent available in a draft consistently decreased in a linear fashion from the the first pick to the last then it is clear that picking earlier is critical. Whatever the arguments you make you can't avoid the math, the person who picks first will ALWAYS have a tiny bit more value.



However, since in reality there tends to be a clump of superstars / stars, then a fall off to players with questions. Depending on the size of this group, you may want to pick later in the draft because you will get 4 of these players vs. 3.



And the last point is that drafts are truly won in the mid to late rounds where players like Hanley Ramirez are picked in the 24th round



Anyway, so having said all this, I think year is the year of the 1-15 KDS preference



Regards,

Spy

CAPT ,you really need to show the 4th round,this will show why picking at the the end might be where you would like.Some of those guys going late in the 3rd might slide into the beginning of the 4th.Getting a Pierre or a Figgins or some 3rd round talent in the 4th round might make some people beind at the end of the draft.

You can also get the best closers if you wish in the beginning of the 4th round like Rodriquez or Nathan, they will never get back to the 1st round.

Just some more things to think about.

Eddie - I agree with your observation. There wull be a couple of these players falling to the start of round 4 (team 14 heading back to team 1). Also, there are a couple others that are close to this group that will also be available.



Of course, nobody will complain about getting stuck with Pujols, Reyes or the other top 5 players either.



I have proven you can lose from any draft position...



Pete

Originally posted by eddiejag:

CAPT ,you really need to show the 4th round,this will show why picking at the the end might be where you would like.Some of those guys going late in the 3rd might slide into the beginning of the 4th.Getting a Pierre or a Figgins or some 3rd round talent in the 4th round might make some people beind at the end of the draft.

You can also get the best closers if you wish in the beginning of the 4th round like Rodriquez or Nathan, they will never get back to the 1st round.

Just some more things to think about. Eddie - the reason I don't show that is that the fourth round is where individual drafts start to go their own way - there just isn't as much correlation after round three.



See you in Vegas - have to avenge that AL auction league