Top 5s

[knuckleheads]

It's always a little depressing when the last draft is finished for the year, but I find some solace in perusing the draft boards of other ME leagues. There are always surprises, and some shocks. Here are my lists of the top-5 over- and under-drafted players in 2016 ME Drafts.

Top-5 Over-drafted players

Carlos Correa - ME ADP - 5.9 (He'll probably be better than Addison Russell.)
Dee Gordon - ME ADP - 21.1 (Hey, watch me do this one thing.)
Yasiel Puig - ME ADP - 69.2 (Just get an elite closer, instead.)
Ken Giles - ME ADP - 98.7 (Don't confuse this guy for an elite closer, though.)
Jacoby Ellsbury - ME ADP - 124.7 (Let it go.)


Top-5 Under-drafted players

Josh Reddick - ME ADP - 207.4 (There is no excuse for him not being on my team.)
Dallas Keuchel - ME ADP - 41.1 (Automatic)
Chris Archer - ME ADP - 43.8 (Might win the Cy Young.)
Brett Lawrie - ME ADP - 213.9 (30 ADP spots below Matt Duffy?)
Hector Santiago - ME ADP - 317.7 (This year's Dallas Keuchel.)

[Wolfpac]

I got Correa at 8 so not sure if that still makes him overdrafted. Now I love Archer was planning on taking him at 38, BUT Encanarcion was still on board so I took Edwin, and lo and behold Archer almost came back to me he went 52nd overall, great value for Archer.

Wolfpac

[knuckleheads]

I got Correa at 8 so not sure if that still makes him overdrafted. Now I love Archer was planning on taking him at 38, BUT Encanarcion was still on board so I took Edwin, and lo and behold Archer almost came back to me he went 52nd overall, great value for Archer.

Wolfpac

Correa went as late as 8 to only 2 ME teams. You were nearly guaranteed a shot at another hitter (if you wanted). At pick #5, there is a greater risk of a tier-shift before then 2nd-round selection. Is some ME Drafts, that drop off came as early as the 8th pick of the second round.

The one team that drafted Correa later than you wasted it by taking a catcher with the 6th pick in the second round.

It's a common theme in the NFBC for last year's mid-season prize to become this year's over-hyped sophomore (see George Springer). In the early picks of the first round, people are drafting Correa for what they hope he will become, but nothing he's ever been.

[Red Sox Nation-]

Correa went #9 in the Ultimate draft.

[mattjb]

Correa went #9 in the Ultimate draft.

even a 'bad' season for Correa would likely be 20/20 at a position where that is incredibly rare. Can't see him delivering less than 2nd round value as his floor unless he gets hurt.

[Yah Mule]

Evidently Trevor Story went way too low.

[knuckleheads]

Evidently Trevor Story went way too low.

Jim, you did a great job of building around Correa from the 7-spot in our draft, but I'm sure you'd admit to being aided by some premature drafting of Posey and DeGrom.

As for Story, he may indeed have gone too low in our draft.

[knuckleheads]

Correa went #9 in the Ultimate draft.

even a 'bad' season for Correa would likely be 20/20 at a position where that is incredibly rare. Can't see him delivering less than 2nd round value as his floor unless he gets hurt.

Matt, in response, I offer this list of second-year players:

Eric Hosmer
Wil Myers
Jason Heyward
Jean Segura
Manny Machado
Yasiel Puig
Brett Lawrie
Marcel Ozuna

[mattjb]

Correa went #9 in the Ultimate draft.

even a 'bad' season for Correa would likely be 20/20 at a position where that is incredibly rare. Can't see him delivering less than 2nd round value as his floor unless he gets hurt.

Matt, in response, I offer this list of second-year players:

Eric Hosmer
Wil Myers
Jason Heyward
Jean Segura
Manny Machado
Yasiel Puig
Brett Lawrie
Marcel Ozuna

None of those really comparable at all.

[uky]

Guys in Chicago auction forced me to overpay for Correa, Altuve and Gomez...Damn

[BK METS]

It's always a little depressing when the last draft is finished for the year, but I find some solace in perusing the draft boards of other ME leagues. There are always surprises, and some shocks. Here are my lists of the top-5 over- and under-drafted players in 2016 ME Drafts.

Top-5 Over-drafted players

Carlos Correa - ME ADP - 5.9 (He'll probably be better than Addison Russell.)
Dee Gordon - ME ADP - 21.1 (Hey, watch me do this one thing.)
Yasiel Puig - ME ADP - 69.2 (Just get an elite closer, instead.)
Ken Giles - ME ADP - 98.7 (Don't confuse this guy for an elite closer, though.)
Jacoby Ellsbury - ME ADP - 124.7 (Let it go.)


Top-5 Under-drafted players

Josh Reddick - ME ADP - 207.4 (There is no excuse for him not being on my team.)
Dallas Keuchel - ME ADP - 41.1 (Automatic)
Chris Archer - ME ADP - 43.8 (Might win the Cy Young.)
Brett Lawrie - ME ADP - 213.9 (30 ADP spots below Matt Duffy?)
Hector Santiago - ME ADP - 317.7 (This year's Dallas Keuchel.)

My case for Dee Gordon. The guy does something that no one else in the major leagues can do. Even if you think his .333 BA is a fluke, he is still a .300 hitter with 205 hits in less than 150 games. With steals becoming harder to find, Gordon gives you 60. Drafting a 2nd baseman with 60 SB, .300+ hittter and soon to be 100 runs scored, it is worthy of a 2nd round pick and I took him everywhere I could. He is one of a kind and if he could somehow figure out how to take a walk, he might steal 80 with the Marlins. You dont mention Jose Altuve being over drafted in the late 1st round, but he is the same player with a few more HRs and a few less SBs. On the flip side, Brett Lawrie has no speed, below average power, and bats .250-.260. Much rather have Matt Duffy or Jake Lamb upside. Brett Lawrie has been over drafted for many years. Finally he is where he should be.

[knuckleheads]

My case for Dee Gordon. The guy does something that no one else in the major leagues can do. Even if you think his .333 BA is a fluke, he is still a .300 hitter with 205 hits in less than 150 games. With steals becoming harder to find, Gordon gives you 60. Drafting a 2nd baseman with 60 SB, .300+ hittter and soon to be 100 runs scored, it is worthy of a 2nd round pick and I took him everywhere I could. He is one of a kind and if he could somehow figure out how to take a walk, he might steal 80 with the Marlins. You dont mention Jose Altuve being over drafted in the late 1st round, but he is the same player with a few more HRs and a few less SBs. On the flip side, Brett Lawrie has no speed, below average power, and bats .250-.260. Much rather have Matt Duffy or Jake Lamb upside. Brett Lawrie has been over drafted for many years. Finally he is where he should be.

Alan, I agree on your projections for Gordon. I also agree you drafted him in your last chance you had to get him in your league. I liked your analysis.

I had Gordon ranked early 4th round because of the 3-CAT production. Had him behind the top-2 closers (4-CAT production). I made the post in recognition of my opinion being so different on those players. I didn't get any of my "over-drafted" players in any league, and I would have liked to own any of them, except Ellsbury. Thanks for the debate.

I also liked Duffy, but drafted him nowhere. I had Duffy ranked 15 spots higher than his ME ADP of 171. It's just that I had Lawrie ranked ahead of Duffy and kept getting him, instead.

[BK METS]

I think the point is, with Gordon, that I don't believe there is anyone in any other category, that dominates like he does. Billy Hamilton is the only other guy but he hurts you in batting average. Jose Altuve is another guy, but his ADP is already 11 or 12.

I get that you don't want to overdraft a 3 category guy, but when you can get a guy that can alone, put you near the top in steals in your league and help you in 2 other categories, you take him early and deal with power guys for the rest of the draft.

Compare him to someone else who dominates in one category... I can't think of anyone that dominates like him and is able to hit for average and score runs at a MI position or any other position, for that matter.

If you look at the 4 cat studs of the 1st round, there are 4 third basemen. All top notch, then big dropoff.... There is a ton of pitching and a lot of sleepers. There are 20 first basemen that can hit 20 HRs and drive in 90 RBIs. There are 30 OFs or more, that can hit 20 HRs and drive in 90 RBIs. There is one guy that can steal 60 SBs or more, score 100 runs, and bat over .300. ONE.

[knuckleheads]

Nelson Cruz and Gordon have performed close to equal the last 2 years in Avg. and Runs (slight edge to Gordon on Avg.).

Cruz averaged 42 HR 100 RBI 4 SB.
Gordon averaged 3 HR 40 RBI 61 SB

Gordon is a better age, Cruz has a longer track record.

ME ADP (Gordon 21, Cruz 53) tells us ME drafters view Cruz as an early 4th round pick and Gordon as an early 2nd round pick. I had them both ranked early 4th round (Gordon 2 spots ahead of Cruz).

It may be that 57 SB is that much better than 40 HR and 60 RBI. I thought 30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14.

That said, you are looking at 100 SB out of your first 3 hitters (Machado, Gordon and Desmond) which gives you a lot of flexibility in the mid-rounds. I like your pitching on that team.

[BK METS]

Nelson Cruz and Gordon have performed close to equal the last 2 years in Avg. and Runs (slight edge to Gordon on Avg.).

Cruz averaged 42 HR 100 RBI 4 SB.
Gordon averaged 3 HR 40 RBI 61 SB

Gordon is a better age, Cruz has a longer track record.

ME ADP (Gordon 21, Cruz 53) tells us ME drafters view Cruz as an early 4th round pick and Gordon as an early 2nd round pick. I had them both ranked early 4th round (Gordon 2 spots ahead of Cruz).

It may be that 57 SB is that much better than 40 HR and 60 RBI. I thought 30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14.

That said, you are looking at 100 SB out of your first 3 hitters (Machado, Gordon and Desmond) which gives you a lot of flexibility in the mid-rounds. I like your pitching on that team.

The premium is really the MI position vs OF position and the difference in replacement for Cruz and the replacement for Gordon, later in the draft, is huge, IMO. I agree that Cruz is actually a good value in the 4th round. Actually getting both of them would be a nice combo.

[Edwards Kings]

Nelson Cruz and Gordon have performed close to equal the last 2 years in Avg. and Runs (slight edge to Gordon on Avg.).

Cruz averaged 42 HR 100 RBI 4 SB.
Gordon averaged 3 HR 40 RBI 61 SB

Gordon is a better age, Cruz has a longer track record.

It may be that 57 SB is that much better than 40 HR and 60 RBI. I thought 30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14.

Relevant discussion only as it applies to roster construction but the analysis (HR/RBI vs SB/AVG) clearly goes to Gordon. 40 HR and 60 RBI are worth about 2.58 points. 57 SB and the additional average (in this case measured by additional hits) is worth about 4.88 points.

As to the "30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14", that is a little tough. Only seven players had 30 or more SB last year and only two were available after the second round and only one, Revere, had good average (the other speedster was Hamilton, but no one would expect good average from him). More than twice as many guys hit 20 or more HR last year than stole 20 or more bases.

[BK METS]

Nelson Cruz and Gordon have performed close to equal the last 2 years in Avg. and Runs (slight edge to Gordon on Avg.).

Cruz averaged 42 HR 100 RBI 4 SB.
Gordon averaged 3 HR 40 RBI 61 SB

Gordon is a better age, Cruz has a longer track record.

It may be that 57 SB is that much better than 40 HR and 60 RBI. I thought 30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14.

Relevant discussion only as it applies to roster construction but the analysis (HR/RBI vs SB/AVG) clearly goes to Gordon. 40 HR and 60 RBI are worth about 2.58 points. 57 SB and the additional average (in this case measured by additional hits) is worth about 4.88 points.

As to the "30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14", that is a little tough. Only seven players had 30 or more SB last year and only two were available after the second round and only one, Revere, had good average (the other speedster was Hamilton, but no one would expect good average from him). More than twice as many guys hit 20 or more HR last year than stole 20 or more bases.

Agreed.. not anywhere near as many SB guys as there used to be... A ton of 20 HR guys in the middle rounds available, especially outfield eligible.

[headhunters]

dear uky- we also forced you to overpay for Pollack and giles.

[knuckleheads]

Relevant discussion only as it applies to roster construction but the analysis (HR/RBI vs SB/AVG) clearly goes to Gordon. 40 HR and 60 RBI are worth about 2.58 points. 57 SB and the additional average (in this case measured by additional hits) is worth about 4.88 points.

As to the "30 SB/Good Average players were plentiful in rounds 8-14", that is a little tough. Only seven players had 30 or more SB last year and only two were available after the second round and only one, Revere, had good average (the other speedster was Hamilton, but no one would expect good average from him). More than twice as many guys hit 20 or more HR last year than stole 20 or more bases.

Good call Wayne, on the 30-SB threshold being thin last year. But these were the guys I was talking about:

With Good Average:
Yellich
Eaton
Burns
Pillar
LeMahieu
Revere
Inciarte
Phillips

With Average Average:
DeShields
Fowler
Maybin
Ellsbury
Segura
Gardner
Andrus

[knuckleheads]

Carlos Correa. Showing out on opening day!

[Wolfpac]

Carlos Correa. Showing out on opening day!

Yep combo meal already!

[mattjb]

Carlos Correa. Showing out on opening day!

Yep combo meal already!

and now dessert too.

[Yah Mule]

Don't look now, but that little slap hitter Dee Gordon has three extra base hits tonight.

[knuckleheads]

Don't look now, but that little slap hitter Dee Gordon has three extra base hits tonight.

Half a season's worth for Gordon. Hope everyone started him this week.

[Yah Mule]

Don't look now, but that little slap hitter Dee Gordon has three extra base hits tonight.

Half a season's worth for Gordon. Hope everyone started him this week.

He did some of it to KRod, too. That's the problem with having all these teams. I'm subjected to Mule on Mule violence every night.