NFBC Message Boards

Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

That's all well and good, Mark. But is he better than Addison Russell?

OMG! Correa hit a home run! Lock in the voting...MVP, CY Young, Republican Presidential Nomination, Best Actor, Onion Queen....I am SO excited!



All this and Didi too!

let me tell you a 'Story' about Addison...

King of Queens wrote:That's all well and good, Mark. But is he better than Addison Russell?

Probably

Gekko wrote:Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

I would have gone $44 for him in the Diamond Auction!!

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Gekko wrote:Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

I would have gone $44 for him in the Diamond Auction!!

that's an interesting point. i purchased Correa in the saturday night ultimate auction for $38.

in the sunday night diamond auction, he went for $43 TO AN OWNER WHO WAS ALSO IN THE saturday night ultimate auction and passed on correa?!?!?!? how did his value for Correa shoot up $5+ dollar overnight? i wonder if he saw me purchase him for $38 and said to himself that he needs to bid whatever it takes the next night and secure mr correa's services.

i feel bad for glenn (had a bid of $42 on Correa) if that is in fact what happened. and people wonder why i keep my picks "hidden". in fact next year, NYC is out for me as too many people used my picks against me the following weekend.

Gekko wrote:

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Gekko wrote:Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

I would have gone $44 for him in the Diamond Auction!!

that's an interesting point. i purchased Correa in the saturday night ultimate auction for $38.

in the sunday night diamond auction, he went for $43 TO AN OWNER WHO WAS ALSO IN THE saturday night ultimate auction and passed on correa?!?!?!? how did his value for Correa shoot up $5+ dollar overnight? i wonder if he saw me purchase him for $38 and said to himself that he needs to bid whatever it takes the next night and secure mr correa's services.

i feel bad for glenn (had a bid of $42 on Correa) if that is in fact what happened. and people wonder why i keep my picks "hidden". in fact next year, NYC is out for me as too many people used my picks against me the following weekend.

OK, Mark. I love you my friend but you were in ZERO auctions in New York this year and not sure where you picked in the main but do you really think guys are paying that much attention to who you pick? Oh, wait... you actually do... So, what you are saying is you aren't going to join the Thursday night main event league in New York next year?? Seriously, if what you are saying is true, we will miss you. It was great talking to you at the pub. Good luck this year.

It's called paranoia. It is never good.

BK METS wrote: do you really think guys are paying that much attention to who you pick?

The Mighty Men wrote:It's called paranoia. It is never good.

u are certainty entitled to your opinion. just as i am

Love the timing of this. If correa goes 0-4 today, this thread doesn't even start.

Love correa as much as anyone and maybe I'm just bitter I had the 13th pick in my main and couldn't get him but yeah the timing... My Chris carter impression..... Come on man!

Gekko wrote:

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Gekko wrote:Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

I would have gone $44 for him in the Diamond Auction!!

that's an interesting point. i purchased Correa in the saturday night ultimate auction for $38.

in the sunday night diamond auction, he went for $43 TO AN OWNER WHO WAS ALSO IN THE saturday night ultimate auction and passed on correa?!?!?!? how did his value for Correa shoot up $5+ dollar overnight? i wonder if he saw me purchase him for $38 and said to himself that he needs to bid whatever it takes the next night and secure mr correa's services.

i feel bad for glenn (had a bid of $42 on Correa) if that is in fact what happened. and people wonder why i keep my picks "hidden". in fact next year, NYC is out for me as too many people used my picks against me the following weekend.

I don't know. He started out with Kershaw at $45 and Correa at $43. I think Jason just had it in his mind to build his team around those two superstars. Interesting start.

He keeps this up, he's got a good chance of being Trevor Story's backup in the ASG.

Gekko wrote:

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Gekko wrote:Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

I would have gone $44 for him in the Diamond Auction!!

that's an interesting point. i purchased Correa in the saturday night ultimate auction for $38.

in the sunday night diamond auction, he went for $43 TO AN OWNER WHO WAS ALSO IN THE saturday night ultimate auction and passed on correa?!?!?!? how did his value for Correa shoot up $5+ dollar overnight? i wonder if he saw me purchase him for $38 and said to himself that he needs to bid whatever it takes the next night and secure mr correa's services.

i feel bad for glenn (had a bid of $42 on Correa) if that is in fact what happened. and people wonder why i keep my picks "hidden". in fact next year, NYC is out for me as too many people used my picks against me the following weekend.

I have Correa priced at $42 (post-Pollock injury). In most auctions I participate in, the Ultimate included, my priority is to acquire value. For elite commodities (the best 30 or so players), I define value as roughly 85% of what I think that player is worth, not their AAV or any derivative of ADP, which reflect fair market value without my personal bias.

In hindsight, I should have squeezed an extra buck out of you in the Ultimate and bid $39 because I was fairly confident you would bump it to $40. To address your paranoia, this confidence stemmed from a prior conversation with KOQ and not from any analysis of your other teams or message board posts. I deliberately entered the Ultimate with a conservative mindset, even with regards to price enforcing. In such a competitive league, I trust there are enough astute minds in the room to prevent any egregious bargains from being had. Correa at $38 doesn’t qualify as one, but I am mildly surprised there wasn’t another team willing to reach or push you to $40.

For the Diamond, I decided in advance to be unreasonably aggressive and that I would either sink or swim with the players I wanted the most – Correa, Kershaw, Sano, and Garrett Richards. Considering my targets were hyped and/or highly coveted, I anticipated having to grossly overpay for at least one of them. You may have noticed I paid $46 for Kershaw yet let him go for $42 in the Ultimate. I have Kershaw priced at $42, same as Correa, and only behind Trout at $45. To compensate for the excess value I expected to hemorrhage in bidding wars, I had lower-level talents I was content on rolling with as starters – Panik at 2B, Duffy at 3B, Aoki at OF, Vizcaino as a 2nd closer. Fortunately, I was able to acquire most of my cheaper targets.

So to answer your question, I threw caution to the wind and went to war for my guys in the Diamond, knowing full well that I would be sacrificing value and roster balance in the process. I navigated the Ultimate with a more typical, pragmatic approach. Anyway, I wish you good luck in your 12 other leagues where we’re not competing. Your teams look formidable in both the Ultimate and Diamond. I have not, and will not be monitoring your other rosters.

As for Carlos Correa, we’re on the same bandwagon. I expect him to be the first player off most boards next draft season. I had him ranked at #2 this year, same as you, and consider myself lucky to land him at #7 in the ME. So far, so good. Let’s hope it continues for the next 161 games.

jdoggmms wrote: I have Correa priced at $42 (post-Pollock injury). In most auctions I participate in, the Ultimate included, my priority is to acquire value. For elite commodities (the best 30 or so players), I define value as roughly 85% of what I think that player is worth, not their AAV or any derivative of ADP, which reflect fair market value without my personal bias.

In hindsight, I should have squeezed an extra buck out of you in the Ultimate and bid $39 because I was fairly confident you would bump it to $40. To address your paranoia, this confidence stemmed from a prior conversation with KOQ and not from any analysis of your other teams or message board posts. I deliberately entered the Ultimate with a conservative mindset, even with regards to price enforcing. In such a competitive league, I trust there are enough astute minds in the room to prevent any egregious bargains from being had. Correa at $38 doesn’t qualify as one, but I am mildly surprised there wasn’t another team willing to reach or push you to $40.

For the Diamond, I decided in advance to be unreasonably aggressive and that I would either sink or swim with the players I wanted the most – Correa, Kershaw, Sano, and Garrett Richards. Considering my targets were hyped and/or highly coveted, I anticipated having to grossly overpay for at least one of them. You may have noticed I paid $46 for Kershaw yet let him go for $42 in the Ultimate. I have Kershaw priced at $42, same as Correa, and only behind Trout at $45. To compensate for the excess value I expected to hemorrhage in bidding wars, I had lower-level talents I was content on rolling with as starters – Panik at 2B, Duffy at 3B, Aoki at OF, Vizcaino as a 2nd closer. Fortunately, I was able to acquire most of my cheaper targets.

So to answer your question, I threw caution to the wind and went to war for my guys in the Diamond, knowing full well that I would be sacrificing value and roster balance in the process. I navigated the Ultimate with a more typical, pragmatic approach. Anyway, I wish you good luck in your 12 other leagues where we’re not competing. Your teams look formidable in both the Ultimate and Diamond. I have not, and will not be monitoring your other rosters.

As for Carlos Correa, we’re on the same bandwagon. I expect him to be the first player off most boards next draft season. I had him ranked at #2 this year, same as you, and consider myself lucky to land him at #7 in the ME. So far, so good. Let’s hope it continues for the next 161 games.

Jason - Thanks for the post and it certainly sounds like a reasonable approach for two different auction leagues. Part of what you wrote did peak my curiosity a bit..."this confidence stemmed from a prior conversation with KOQ"

Good to see that someone else read the tea leaves correctly on Correa

opps, another Correa HR

Gekko wrote:Folks,

My comp machine indicates Carlos Correa is Miggy Cabrera WITH speed. Everything you needed to figure this out was at your fingertips this offseason. Here's hoping you read the tea leaves correctly this offseason.

As for me, I have Correa on 11 of 14 NFBC teams this year. I took him in the first round in every draft he was available, no matter what draft slot I received. In other words, I never passed on him, even as early as the 2 hole.

I wrote a 13-page letter about ping-pong ball luck regarding this- good job increasing your odds to about 80% by signing up for the main event twice- smart move- here is a preview:




-Mace and Bailey

Serious question though- if the main event offered faab bidding for moving to the front of the line in KDS assignment (with non-bidders going through the normal process with open draft slots remaining), how much would you have bid for that bonus?

1. I read your first post a couple times and still can't figure it out. Are u in Colorado on vacay?
2. Estimating Faab blind bidding:
Slots 1-5: $350 across the board
Slot 6: $200
Slot 7: $100
Slots 8-15: close to zero

Gekko wrote:1. I read your first post a couple times and still can't figure it out. Are u in Colorado on vacay?
2. Estimating Faab blind bidding:
Slots 1-5: $350 across the board
Slot 6: $200
Slot 7: $100
Slots 8-15: close to zero

Interesting, when I set my KDS the 8 slot was my 5th choice, my KDS went something along the lines of
3,2,1,4,8,7,6,5 then I can't recall the rest, I did get the 8 slot. My reasoning was I was happy with Correa, Machado and Arenado, but felt there was a drop off after 8, significant in my eyes. To my surprise all 3 were available, and I hesitated for a moment not expecting Correa to be there, but I went with young phenom SS.

So which of those 8 were you not high on that you wouldn't bid much for the 8 spot? Also was Donaldson your 6?

I thought people bid on moving to the front of the line, rather than slots, but either way that answers the question.

For me, the first round was:
Correa
<significant gap>
Machado
Harper
Trout
Donaldson
Arenado
After that, there are a number of ways to go

I didn't like any hitters typically available at the 2/3 turn which caused me to downgrade kershaw.

I believe the correct play out of the early slots this year was hitter/SP/SP.

A day or two before week one main event in NYC, the "dream start" for me from the 5 hole was:
1. Correa
2. Harvey
3. Syndergaard
4. M.Franco
5. Best power hitter

However, harvey got blasted by the astros a couple hours before the main event. He complained of his mechanics being off and feeling awkward. Not exactly what I want to hear out of my second round pick so I downgraded harvey and replaced him with strasburg. Even took strasburg over sale and bumgarner. Will see how that turns outs.

In the 4th round, franco was there, along with nelson Cruz. Based on my knowledge of adp's and trends, I took an educated gamble that franco would make it back to me in the 5th. I selected cruz in the 4th and fortunately franco was still there in the 5th

I'm not afraid to take my guys over adp darlings. Anyone can look at my drafts and see that.

Gekko wrote:1. I read your first post a couple times and still can't figure it out. Are u in Colorado on vacay?
2. Estimating Faab blind bidding:
Slots 1-5: $350 across the board
Slot 6: $200
Slot 7: $100
Slots 8-15: close to zero

Not true. Just look at the Platinum bidding for further proof of what folks valued each draft spot.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Gekko wrote:1. I read your first post a couple times and still can't figure it out. Are u in Colorado on vacay?
2. Estimating Faab blind bidding:
Slots 1-5: $350 across the board
Slot 6: $200
Slot 7: $100
Slots 8-15: close to zero

Not true. Just look at the Platinum bidding for further proof of what folks valued each draft spot.

What do u mean not true? I was listing what I would bid via blind Faab bidding. If it was in person live bidding, that changes the answer obviously