Pitch counts & Innings limits

[Driver Love]

This topic has been driving me crazy. It seems like there are more arm injuries now than at any time in the history of the sport yet teams are more cautious with pitchers and their work load then every before. Now I realize just about everyone throws in the mid 90's now and that was not the case 30 years ago when there really wasn't much talk of pitch counts. Am I the only person who thinks this is being over done?

I wonder if pitchers now pitch to contact more knowing they will be yanked when a magical pitch count number (that was just picked out of thing air) gets neared. Do they keep track of outfield long throws before the game? Do they keep track of warm up pitches in the bullpen? Do they keep track of warm up pitches before every inning? Do they keep track of throws over to first base to hold a runner on? What about a frustrated pitcher who throws his glove down in disgust in the dugout after a bad inning? Does that count as a throw?

Jose Fernandez can pitch 185 innings this year but not 220? Those 35 innings are going to make a big difference? If he can pitch 185, but not 220 how can he be counted on for the next 8 years? Though obviously not a dr I would argue (via common sense) that a pitchers arm can either take the wear and tear or cannot. Based on genetics, pitchers motion, mechanics, etc. I really find myself wondering if this is an over analyzed issue.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I had some of these questions a few years ago. Before score keeping a game, I cornered an executive from the Orioles organization and talked with him about this subject.
All game pitches from pitchers are counted. Not long toss, not warming up, not throws over to first base. Some teams count intentional base on ball tosses, others don't. The media always count them.
The reason why only in-game pitches are counted is the stress significance on the pitchers arm.

Pitch count 'alarms' are similar, but slightly different from organization to organization. Most Managers want to know when their Starter is approaching 100 pitches. From then on, a decision is based on how many of his pitches were 'ultra-stressed' and how his overall performance has been, when decisions are made in being replaced or not.

Pitch counts were ushered in by some from the medical field and especially agents who wanted their money, er client, 'protected'.
In a game in the 1920's, a baseball game went 26 innings. Both Starters finished the game. It was estimated that each pitcher threw approximately 350 pitches.
In 1963, Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn hooked up in a 16 inning complete game, in which both pitchers wanted to outlast the other.
Marichal threw 227 pitches. Spahn, 201. They each took an extra day of rest and were good for the rest of their careers.
Marichal explained that the more he threw, the stronger his arm became. Atlanta's great teams were of the same mind. Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine threw pitches every day.

Sadly, pitch counts have become one of baseball's unwritten rules. A pitcher throwing even 125 pitches now, is rare.
Edwin Jackson threw 149 pitches to garner a no-hitter. That is the most pitches thrown during the last 10 years.
In the past, a Manager had to gauge how his Starter 'feels'. Then decide whether his Starter, already throwing a lot of innings in the game, is still better than the possible reliever.
With pitch counts, that decision is made for him and he is never questioned.

A lot of doctors, including Dr. Andrews believe that year long throwing, no matter the pitch counts, has contributed more to Tommy John surgeries. Parents of kids with good arms think it's a great idea to get their kids on traveling teams and having them throw as much as possible in getting the attention of College coaches or MLB scouts.
They 'specialize' their kids in avoiding basketball and football, throwing baseballs during these seasons.
Andrews thinks that old time baseball players had it right.
Throw at full stress for six months, then rest the arm during the off season.

Edit- Speaking of Marichal, he said he wanted to finish every game he ever started. Sometimes he was successful in talking his Manager into continuing to let him throw, sometimes not.
But, there was one time in which he was feeling really rotten late in a game.
And sometimes, it is not about pitch counts as much as what is above the neck.
Here's his story...

I was grinding my way through the game. I didn't feel well at all. Herman Franks, my Manager came to the mound. He asked how I was feeling. I had ALWAYS told him before that I felt great and wanted to finish the game.
This time, I decided to tell the truth.
"I feel bad", I told him.
He looked a little surprised, then asked me to turn around and look at the bullpen.
Nobody was warming up.
"Even feeling bad, you're still better than anybody else I have".
As soon as he left the mound, my confidence was back and I threw bullets for the rest of the game.

By the way, the Marichal-Spahn game was played in 4:10, the seemingly usual time for a Yanks-Red Sox nine inning game.

[Driver Love]

Doughboys,

Great post. I really appreciate it. The topic interests (and irritates) me. I believe a starting pitcher either can or cannot sustain the wear and tear of throwing a baseball at a high level. Using any of the SP's who are supposed to have this mystical innings limit of 185ish.. I just can't see how they are capable of 185, but cannot pitch 220 and yet are supposed to depended on for that franchise for the next 8 years. It seems to be the ligaments and musculature either can or cannot handle the stress and rigors of that motion. The mechanics and pitchers individual motion either can or cannot allow the arm to handle the stress. I mean if a guy is likely to blow out at 220 innings, but not 185 it would seem to me he is going to blow out at some point in the near future either way.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Doughboys,

Great post. I really appreciate it. The topic interests (and irritates) me. I believe a starting pitcher either can or cannot sustain the wear and tear of throwing a baseball at a high level. Using any of the SP's who are supposed to have this mystical innings limit of 185ish.. I just can't see how they are capable of 185, but cannot pitch 220 and yet are supposed to depended on for that franchise for the next 8 years. It seems to be the ligaments and musculature either can or cannot handle the stress and rigors of that motion. The mechanics and pitchers individual motion either can or cannot allow the arm to handle the stress. I mean if a guy is likely to blow out at 220 innings, but not 185 it would seem to me he is going to blow out at some point in the near future either way.

The following is all conjecture on my part.
I believe that when a pitcher like Fernandez this year, or Harvey last year, and Strasburg before that, comes back from Tommy John that there are wink and nod deals made between their agents and executives of the team thrown for.Agents want less innings for their money, er client, and a number is set between the agent and executive
GM Rizzo stood pat with Strasburg instead of pitching him in the playoffs. I believe his deal with Boras was more than wink and nod. And maybe that was remembered when Strasburg reached a deal with the Nats this week.
With Harvey, not so iron clad and Harvey had input that he WANTED to pitch.
I don't know what becomes of Fernandez.
Your right, the number of innings is silly. Executives put them out there early, even before Spring Training so as not to raise hopes of fans. Then, for some reason, those numbers are solidified as the season progresses.
All silly really.

[KJ Duke]

Nova was stretched to start in ST and already had gone 4 innings once in relief. When moved to the rotation Girardi put out a pitch count target of 75 prior to the game. Nova was sailing along in the 5th with a lead ... as he reached 70 pitches Joe and Larry were biting their fingers on the dugout railing, seemingly distracting Nova who knew the hook was coming soon in spite of nothing hit hard off him.

An infield hit, a misplayed infield ball and a should've been GDP had them acting like they were tempting fate as he reached 75 and they let him go one more batter. He gets him and reaches the clearly dangerous 81 pitch territory with 2 outs and one on in the 5th leading 5-1. Joe couldn't take it anymore and sprints out with Nova 6 pitches over his limit !!! Puke-worthy move. When did Girardi turn into a p****?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Nova was stretched to start in ST and already had gone 4 innings once in relief. When moved to the rotation Girardi put out a pitch count target of 75 prior to the game. Nova was sailing along in the 5th with a lead ... as he reached 70 pitches Joe and Larry were biting their fingers on the dugout railing, seemingly distracting Nova who knew the hook was coming soon in spite of nothing hit hard off him.

An infield hit, a misplayed infield ball and a should've been GDP had them acting like they were tempting fate as he reached 75 and they let him go one more batter. He gets him and reaches the clearly dangerous 81 pitch territory with 2 outs and one on in the 5th leading 5-1. Joe couldn't take it anymore and sprints out with Nova 6 pitches over his limit !!! Puke-worthy move. When did Girardi turn into a p****?

Ugh.
Just a large damned UGH.

[NorCalAtlFan]

"When did Girardi turn into a p****?"

ummm, when wasn't he?

[KJ Duke]

"When did Girardi turn into a p****?"

ummm, when wasn't he?

He wasn't when Loria fired him.

[Driver Love]

Doughboys,

You may be right about the back room deals. I just think it is absurd. It is bad for the fans. It is obviously bad for fantasy (and baseball better take serious the fantasy industry since it drives much of their ratings/revenue). It is just a shame we can't watch a game, enjoy a good pitching performance, and not have to cringe at every foul ball because it adds to the mysterious pitch count and could result in the pitcher being yanked. Watching Conley have a shot at a no hitter and yanked due to pitch count was a sad thing to watch.

If there was a sudden measurable drop in arm injuries that could be attributed to monitoring pitch counts and innings limits I wouldn't have a leg to stand on. We have seen no such drop in injuries.

[Edwards Kings]

Different game. No one (very few) pitches to contact. Some of the names mentioned:

Marichal - Lifetime K/9 = 5.9
Spahn = 4.4

Others of minor note:

Gibson = 7.2
Maddux = 6.1

Blowing heat and hard sliders....no way they can put so many innings on an arm that way. And try making it to the bigs with a 4.4 K/9...brass would laugh that pitcher out of the organization.

[headhunters]

I agree with Edward kings- it is the heat and the slider- and it is from an early age. traveling ball- and radar guns have spawned this. if a kid can't throw at least 90 in high school scouts won't look at him. college costs a lot and most parents are into ascribed status- mostly by the "humble brag" that has become so popular- hey you are still bragging- douche.

[Driver Love]

I agree it is a different game. I made that point in my initial post starting the topic. I talked about velocity being different now. I know the K rates are way up. My point is this. A pitcher either can or cannot handle the arm stress and be a viable dependable MLB starting pitcher. I can't see how there is much of a difference between 185 innings and 225. If the arm can't take the trauma from the fastballs and sliders I would think you would know by 185 innings.

Good thing there was an old school manager going last night. I wonder if anyone would have pulled Scherzer due to pitch count last night.

[NorCalAtlFan]

i would have thought at some point, some team would have hired Mike Marshall and adopted his techniques(as out there as they are).
all that money invested and it's still just a crap shoot on IP/pitch counts/throwing motions, etc.

this is a very interesting topic

[Driver Love]

For those who watched the early games this issue came up again. I still struggle to understand why managers cannot evaluate when to remove a starting pitcher based on his performance as opposed to some magical static pitch count number. Isn't that part of the skill/talent of being a manager or coach? Anyone can read a hand held clicker to see how many pitches have been thrown. No talent in that. Where is the skill of using the eye test to evaluating a pitcher? Gerrit Cole has been struggling some this year (though he has been getting away with it for the most part). He labored again today through the early part of his game until settling down around the 4th inning. However, due to his previous struggles his pitch count was up. He pitches the 5th inning and has his best inning of the game as he strikes out the side. So clearly not laboring. The game is close with the Pirates only up 3-1. What does the manager do? He checks the "How must I manage in 2016 handbook" and right there is says "once a starter is near or just over 100 pitches you automatically have to pull him, regardless of how he is performing or feeling and you have to bring in a new guy who could simply have an off day..." Who cares that he is coming off an inning where he pitched very well...

And predictably the reliever blows the lead and game (though the Pirates won the game anyway). It just baffles me how rigidly by the book most of these managers are with this magical and seemingly arbitrary pitch count number.

[whale4evr]

Worse though is when they leave a guy in who is clearly gassed and then he loads the bases with no outs and then gets taken out and the bullpen lets all three runners score. Of the two, I'll take the quick yank.

[mdecav]

Relief pitchers have TJ surgery as well. This is not exclusive to starting pitchers.

[BK METS]

I have typically agreed with the "I hate pitch counts" theory. I have my own theory.

I have seen it with major league pitchers, minor league pitchers, and school age pitchers. There is a huge difference between a "stressful" 100 pitches and an "easy" 100 pitches.

I just witnessed a high school age pitcher undergoing Tommy John Surgery last week. I watched this kid pitch over the past 3 years. He was the closer, but often pitched 4-5 innings, when he was on. He pitched in numerous stressful close games. He typically pitched 2 innings every other day or so. In one outing, after 5 days rest, he pitched 60 pitches over 5 innings (all extra innings). He was throwing gas, more than I have ever seen him throw. You could see it on his face. He was stressed. Everyone could see he was overthrowing. He wanted to strike everyone out. He struck out 12 batters in those innings. Three days later, he was diagnosed with a UCL injury. I know this kid well, as he and my son play together, so I asked him, what do you think caused his injury? He said he was trying to strike everyone out. He was intensely into the game. He knew he was overthrowing but wanted this game badly.

In MLB, some of these guys are throwing upwards of 97-98 MPH for 7-8 innings. In a close game, these are pretty stressful pitches. In the case of a pitcher that has a large lead, he can relax a lot more, less tendency to overthrow. Its a big difference. Pitching 100 pitches with a 5 run lead and a 1 run lead is a huge difference on arm stress.

I am convinced that Johan Santana blew out his arm/elbow, after throwing his no hitter for the Mets with a large pitch count, 134, I believe. At the time, Terry Collins knew he might have cost the guy the rest of his career. Pitching a no hitter, every pitch is stressful. Santana was never the same. Terry Collins is still haunted by it.

I can go on and on about similar scenarios, but Matt Harvey being the most recent guy who experienced a ridiculously stressful game against the KC Royals in the World Series last year. He didnt throw a ton of pitches, but he was under enormous pressure. We all know what he has done this year, so far.

Its not about pitch count or innings. Its about the individual pitcher and the amount of additional stress he puts on the elbow/arm, based upon the individual game(s). You see it especially with guys throwing very hard. Are they throwing hard or over-throwing? And how much extra stress is that pitcher putting on himself and his elbow/arm, based upon the circumstance and the pitcher's personality.

It might be a theory that is proven wrong, but I truly believe that if every manager used stress level (based upon the pitchers personality and stress he puts on himself and his arm) as a gauge to how many innings/pitches a pitcher should throw, you will see a lot less injuries. Mariano Rivera was as cool as they come. He never had arm problems, not because he wasn't in stressful situations, but because he didnt overthrow. He wasnt stressed. He threw one pitch. Bartolo Colon.. pretty much one pitch. As cool as you can be on the mound. No arm issues to speak of.

[DOUGHBOYS]

We really don't know, do we?
We know the question.
Why is there so many Tommy John surgeries?
But, when there are so many different answers, it means nobody has the answer.
Stress, over throwing, year long throwing, taxing the arm, working out too much, too much throwing at a young age, too many curves, too many sliders, it goes on and on.

Already this year, there have been more pitches 98 miles an hour or faster than were thrown during the entire 2008 year.
And that is with Aroldis Chapman not throwing for five weeks.
The fact is that the pitches are being thrown harder and harder each year.
And if Doctors agree on anything, it is that the arm on the human body is not built to throw baseball's.

Right now, limiting pitches for Starters and limiting outings for relievers is the pitcher's, their agents, and their Managers weapon of choice to combat Tommy John.
For the pitcher and agent, it is more of a comfort zone.
For the Manager, Driver Love is right, it takes a crucial decision out of his hands. In addressing media or bosses, he can fall back that he took a good starter out of the game due to pitch count.

Alan used Bartolo Colon as an example of a pitcher with few arm problems. Colon actually missed the whole 2010 season. He thought he was done as a pitcher. An x-ray revealed that his rotator cuff was torn, his labrum severely frayed, and many loose bodies were floating around his shoulder and elbow.
Colon tried a stem cell surgery. Before this surgery, all stem cell's had been done with the use of human growth hormones. HGH is banned by Major League Baseball. For this surgery, HGH was not meant to act as a strengthening agent but as a faster healing agent.
Colon went to MLB and asked if he could have the surgery without the HGH.
They complied and the rest, as they say, is history.

[Driver Love]

I am fine with pitch counts for youth players. What I am saying is a manager should judge when a pitcher needs to be taken out of a game based on hot the pitcher is pitching. He is fading? Is he losing his release point? Is he losing his arm slot? Are his legs tiring resulting in him not finishing properly and getting the ball up. These things can also come from conversations with the catcher. What baffles me is the hard pitch count number that just seems to be the magical 100. Everyone who has a sense of baseball history knows guys in a previous era (including guys who threw very hard) had pitch counts well into the 130's and beyond at times.

Using Cole as an example was done for a reason. He JUST was finding his groove. He just struck out the side and because the number was 100, he magically must leave the game. It just seems so rigid. So arbitrary.