NFBC Message Boards

Hey everyone, we're happy to announce that our "celebrity" chats will begin this week with Ron Shandler from BaseballHQ.com joining us on Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. ET. Ron will be here for an hour answering your questions in this thread so if you have some questions for Ron, post them here.

2 part question:



1) Why do you think you are such a polarizing figure in the nfbc, some people think you are the man, some not so high on you due to a perceived level of arrogance. I know I see you on the boards so this is not exactly a news flash to you. Is it jealousy, I know I am jealous of anyone who can make a living out of my hobby!



Editors note: My one meeting with you, I found to be both humble and helpful. Therefore I came to conclusion that the criticism was a bunch of hog wash.



But



2) I have had a heck of a time getting a response out of your organization when I have had an issue. A simple issue with my signup led to 2 voice mails not being returned, and one email not returned (the second one was). A baseball specific issue that I wanted some clarification on was private messaged to you on this board, you read but did not respond- would have taken one minute max to answer.



I pay you money every year, do I not deserve a little bit better than that as a customer?



Not trying to blindside you here or be negative- a lot of similar sentiments towards your organization among members of the nfbc. I wanted to give you a chance to tell me I am wrong on this, because this is certainly an issue I would like to be wrong on.



By the way I had a beer with Michael Barrett and a couple of Cubs in Pittsburgh this year, a couple of my employees outed me on fantasy baseball and he said he had heard the guru of fantasy baseball (knew your name) predicted a big year for him (this is about a week before he got hurt) he said he hoped that he had not disappointed all of us. Thought you might get a kick out of that.



[ February 13, 2007, 07:54 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Ron-



Thanks for the chat.



Many industry guys believe in the age 27 peak theory, but the only studies I have seen that prove this utilize old data that goes back to 1900. Do you think modern advances in technology, health science, training, and nutrition have caused the peak years for baseball players to be pushed back to, say, 28-30?

Mr. Shandler,

I’ve been a follower of your site for years. You seem to reinvent yourself every year with a new strategy. LIMA, RIMA, TCD, now Portfolio3 plan. While all these seem to be solid strategies for trading leagues how does it apply for the NFBC Auctions and Drafts?

Mr.Shandler just became a new member of your baseball HQ family. Reviewing your Baseball Forecaster position scarcity chart surpised to see that Jason Schmidt ranked as the 42nd pitcher. Are you predicting a major fall off on production? also if my math is correct in a 15 team league it would put him as a number 3 starter? It seems to low, could you go into more details on this player?

Thanks for the chat. I have a question about the flyball data you hold in such high regard. I can see the utility of it in a situation where Player A hits about 40 homeruns 3 years in a row with an average gb/fb split. In the fourth year he hits 20 homeruns with a very high GB rate. Rebound is likely.



I can see how the converse would also be true.



I also understand that there is a correlation between gb/fb stats and homeruns, but that is taking players of the same power, i.e. if you take a random sample of players they will have average power and the ones with more flyballs will have more homeruns. That is intuitive.



But if you have a really weak hitter and really strong hitter, power is going to overcome a high fb rate for the weak hitter.



In other words, question: Obviously when Ryan Howard hits the ball in the air, he hits the bejesus out of it and it goes far. If he was Jason Kendall it wouldn't go out, in the air or not. All that Howard's fly ball data tells me is that if he hits more in the air next year, he will get even more homeruns because he will hit those a long way too. Why should he not continue to hammer the flyballs he does hit?



P.S. Looking at the que, I think your questions here are a little more advanced than what you usually get. Is that fair to say?

Ron,



I have an addiction that only you may be able to help. It is an addiction that has bitten many in the NFBC it is called "Hardenitis".



I have convinced myself that I have kicked the habit but I know the demons will come calling in the middle of the night in the next few weeks.



What round in the NFBC would you begin to think about taking him? Also I am assuming you would never be comfortable with him as your number one starter, but a number 2 in the right scenario, I guess the ideal would be for him to be a number 3 and make a good starting core potentially great agree?

"Hardenitis".



I have convinced myself that I have kicked the habit but I know the demons will come calling in the middle of the night in the next few weeks.



Chest:



Sounds like that's more of a question you need to discuss with your wife?

Ron-



Again, thanks for the chat...



How do you view strikeouts for batters? For example, a guy like Bill Hall - with the amount of strikeouts he piles up, I think many fantasy players are having a hard time projecting him for 2007, in terms of whether he can sustain his 2006 production with that many whiffs.



Or do you view it as, he produced last year just fine even with 162 K's, so if he can chop those down by even a little bit, he will improve across the board? (this could also apply to Granderson, Howard, etc.)

Ron,



What do you think of Pat Burrell? I can see Howard getting the Bonds treatment a fair amount this season and with Burrell penciled in the #5 spot in the lineup, I think he is going to have a ridiculous amount of RBI chances. Whether or not he capitalizes on them, well, that is my question to you?

Ron,



You and I have been in this industry so long that if the creators of "The Flintstones" ever decided to make a fantasy baseball episode with Fred and Barney we'd show up in the background!!



You know I respect the work you do and we've battled in leagues together for years. So no disrespect here, but I do want to talk about your projections for Alfonso Soriano last year. There is no question that once he moved to Washington a lot of folks projected much poorer numbers for him and his value dropped at least a full round. In the NFBC, he went 22nd overall on average and I think a lot of people took stock in the low batting average you had predicted.



So my question: Did everyone just miss the boat on him? It's been said before that certain players like Roberto Clemente can have poor plate discipline and defy all the numbers, but still have this incredible ability to put the bat on the ball and it appears Soriano can be lumped into that group. Or did everyone just overestimate the ballpark effects?



For the record: Your 2006 Forecaster had Soriano hitting .267-37-94 with 29 stolen bases and 93 runs. I think you adjusted it after that, right?



Now in Chicago, you have him at .280-40-96 with 35 stolen bases and 108 runs. Give me some thoughts on Soriano and if you think he should be a Top 3 pick in 2007.

Ron-



Thanks for joining us this afternoon. Can you please shed some light and 3-5 players who you think are great values based on ADP numbers heading into this year.



Thanks



EK

Hey Ron,



Reyes and Howard are going in the top 5 or 6 in almost every mock draft that I've seen making it impossible to ever own both of them, but you have Rollins and Teixeira neck and neck if not better then them with your projections. Therefore do you feel drafting down at the end of the 1st round has more value this year to grab a Tex and Rollins, then potentially grabbing a Reyes or Howard early? Thanks.



Mike

I see Ron has arrived. We have plenty of questions for him - including one from Greg - so Ron if you want to dive in feel free to jump in at any time. Welcome to the boards and have fun everyone.

Hi all. Happy Valentines Day! Those who brought me chocolate will get their questions answered first.



I've kinda been on and off the board all morning trying to get a sense of some of these early questions, and trying to get a head start with responses. So, I will just start posting responses to the first wave of questions and hope to be able to keep up with the flow for the next hour.

Re: Chest Rockwell questions

I never pretend to be anything other than who I am. I'm just a

guy who's been blessed with the opportunity to research and write

about fantasy baseball for over 20 years, and support his family

doing it. If that makes me "the man," well, everyone has their

own definition of what makes an expert. If people see me as a

polarizing figure because I sometimes voice my opinion, well, who

DOESN'T have an opinion?



I got into trouble in NFBC #1 because I was a facilitator at one

draft and wrote that I thought people should be more prepared if

they are dropping $1250 to compete. One way to look at this is,

we all play this game to prove our intelligence and anyone who

dares question that intelligence should be duly executed. The

other way to look at this is, well, this guy has been playing and

writing about the game for two decades; maybe he has something

useful to say. If that makes me arrogant, I dunno. You can call

it as you see it.



As for the responsiveness of our organization, that is a constant

challenge. We are a small busines and do our best. However, I

have to kill any expectation that Ron Shandler is accessible and

available to answer individual questions, except in a forum like

this. With tens of thousands of readers, it's simply not

possible. FWIW, I don't read PMs and if one of my people failed

to respond to yours, I apologize.



Cool Barrett story. Thanks for sharing it.

Re: Age 27 theory

There was a recent study that DID show peak age performance had

risen to close to 30. We already had been seeing that with

individual skills, like power and pitching effectiveness, and had

been taking that into account in our projections. The research is

ongoing.

Re: How my strategies apply in the NFBC

I'm not sure that I'm constantly reinventing myself. The new strategies all evolve from the underlying LIMA concept of drafting skills, not stats. Most are common-sense enhancements intended to provide a formal structure to a lot of what we are already doing (or should be). Portfolio3 simply says that profit expectation and risk tolerance is different at each stage of a draft. So don't go looking for sleepers in Round 1 and don't be fishing for stable commodities in Round 23. The rules apply whether it is a trading league or not.



[ February 14, 2007, 01:01 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]

Re: Jason Schmidt

Schmidt is 34, has a spotty health history and cannot be counted on to put up back-to-back 200 IP seasons. He had a 4.37 ERA in the 2nd half last year, so the stamina may not be there. His strikeout rate has declined each of the last two years. He's moving to a stadium that's more hitter-friendly, particularly for power hitters, and Schmidt is a flyball pitcher. I see a lot of risk here.

Re: Flyball data

Flyball tendencies are not the be-all and end-all, they are just one factor in evaluating a player's power. Everything you say is correct, and in Howard's case, his low FB rate is just one of several cautionary flags. Others include the natural tendency to regress to the mean (pitchers ARE going to be more careful pitching to him, even if that means more IBB) and very low contact rates (see: Adam Dunn's career progression). I think our official projection is currently for 52 HRs, but the more I look at that, the more I'd be very inclined to take the under.

Re: Hardenitis

For everything that I have heard about Harden, anything over $15 or Rd 8 is playing with fire.

Re: Strikeouts

My view of strikeouts is that the more a batter makes contact, the more productive, projectable and consistent he will likely be. That does not mean a player who K's a lot can't be good; just that, in the long run, he won't be quite as good as a player who is a better bat handler. Hall's situation is a little different because he went from primarily a GB hitter in 2005 to a FB hitter in 2006, which bodes better for maintaining his power output.

Re: Burrell

I think he's pretty much a lock for 100 RBIs.

Re: Soriano

Hey Greg... I can't remember. Were you the one who invented fire or the wheel? As I recall, I invented green.



In this year's First Pitch Forums, one of the topics will be, "Players whose projections we blew, and what we've learned" and Soriano will be at the top of the list. Bottom line is that his home/road splits in Texas were huge and he was moving from an extreme hitters park to an extreme pitchers park. For us NOT to project a huge decline would have been like moving Vinny Castilla to Coors in the early 1990s and projecting middling numbers. Yes, we got burned by Soriano, and yes, I do think he'll do great in Wrigley, and yes, he's clearly a Top 5 pick, if not Top 3. But no guarantees. If we were able to project these guys with 100% accuracy, I'd be out of a job!

Re: ADPs

Frankly, I have not been looking much at ADPs yet, at least not enough to tell you players who are dropping or rising more than a few spots. One of my writers is scheduled to do a piece on ADP variances in a few weeks, and we have another First Pitch topic dedicated to that as well. But I'm not sure what players are rising or dropping yet.