NFBC Message Boards

I've been away on business for the past few days. Here's to great Sunday of MLB.

Sunday bloody Sunday...
oh wait, I said that last week...

Phillies swept in Chicago for first time since July 1995, and looked bad in doing it.

How about that White Sox bullpen. White Sox in free fall. Ryan Braun would look good in a Nationals uniform. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that McCutchen would be the 3rd best outfielder on the Pirates team.

Donacion wrote:How about that White Sox bullpen. White Sox in free fall. Ryan Braun would look good in a Nationals uniform. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that McCutchen would be the 3rd best outfielder on the Pirates team.

That was about two of the worst back-to-back games for a bullpen. Yesterday's fiasco will be tough to get over and today did not help matters. I only care because I have Robertson on a big team and was mentally strangling Ventura for even pitching him in a 7-1 game and then leaving him out there for so long.

Mike

Live scoring has been down for quite awhile.

.

For anyone who felt bad that Carlos Correa wasn't starting today, don't.
He just pinch-hit a 3-run bomb for you. Astros lead Angels 8-5 in the 13th.

Great game.

Gotta be a great game when Albert Pujols gets a SB, right?


.

I've seen almost every game Jake Arrieta has pitched since the start of last season.....
43 Starts
31-6
1.76 era

I'm the ultimate die-hard Cubs fan.....but


Clayton Kershaw is THE Best Pitcher in baseball.
I just can't imagine anyone doubts that.

I'm actually pissed that the Cubs are going to miss him over the next 4-game series at Wrigley. He is one of the players that I'm more than willing to pay to see play the game.

Navel Lint wrote:I've seen almost every game Jake Arrieta has pitched since the start of last season.....
43 Starts
31-6
1.76 era

I'm the ultimate die-hard Cubs fan.....but

Clayton Kershaw is THE Best Pitcher in baseball.
I just can't imagine anyone doubts that.

I'm actually pissed that the Cubs are going to miss him over the next 4-game series at Wrigley. He is one of the players that I'm more than willing to pay to see play the game.

I doubt it and I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't. Arrieta has been better by the numbers than Kershaw for the last year plus. Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and definitely among the top 2, but not obviously the best over Arrieta.

A few weeks ago I recall a proclamation that Bryce Harper was undoubtedly the best player in baseball. Now I'm not sure he even has first round stats anymore.

Reality is, "the best" is fluid.

The only numbers Arrieta has over Kershaw are wins and ERA. The problem is those are the numbers conventionally used to judge success but they're not an accurate gauge.

Ignoring this season, Kershaw fanned more and walked fewer than Arrieta last season.

Kershaw comfortably has Arrieta in the expected ERA metrics - which are all shown to be a better measure of a pitcher's true performance than ERA.

FIP
Kershaw 1.99
Arrieta 2.25

xFIP
Kershaw 2.09
Arrieta 2.61

SIERA
Kershaw 2.24
Arrieta 2.75

ToddZ wrote:The only numbers Arrieta has over Kershaw are wins and ERA. The problem is those are the numbers conventionally used to judge success but they're not an accurate gauge.

Ignoring this season, Kershaw fanned more and walked fewer than Arrieta last season.

Kershaw comfortably has Arrieta in the expected ERA metrics - which are all shown to be a better measure of a pitcher's true performance than ERA.

FIP
Kershaw 1.99
Arrieta 2.25

xFIP
Kershaw 2.09
Arrieta 2.61

SIERA
Kershaw 2.24
Arrieta 2.75

I don't view such catch all advanced metrics as gospel as they make a variety of assumptions about things which they cannot quantify and which have greater meaning over large data sets rather than individual data sets.

Also, not to cherry pick ... but when someone tells me there shouldn't even even be a debate ...since June 21 last year when Arrieta's dominance began:

W/L • ERA
Arrieta 25-1, 1.13 era
Kershaw 18-4, 1.43 era

Kershaw wins the k/bb battle, but he's also given up HRs at twice the rate ... probably why the advanced metrics love him more, but how much of that is not making mistakes vs luck? Similar story for strand rate, Arrieta's been better ... is that luck or skill? Again, debatable, but it's viewed as luck in advanced metrics. And finally, offsetting Kershaw's favorable k/bb, Arrieta GB rate is better at 58% vs 50%.

I think you can reasonably make a case for either as being the best pitcher in the league right now.

Agreed KJ.
The 'best' in baseball is fluid. There were so many comments in April about Harper being the 'best'.
Not so much any more.
(By the way, Harper has not received a base on balls in his last 8 games)

Both pitchers have been wonderful.
What I like most about Kershaw's run is that in an era where there are few complete games, Kershaw is averaging eight innings a Start.
Incredible when pitch counts reign supreme.
Those touting Arrieta could say that if circumstances and teams were reversed, Arrieta too, would be going deeper into games.
And there is some truth to that.
But he isn't, so he doesn't.
The 'best', especially in this case, cannot be defined by Numerish or our eyes. It is opinion.
And just a whole lot of fun watching each do their thing.

KJ Duke wrote:

Navel Lint wrote:I've seen almost every game Jake Arrieta has pitched since the start of last season.....
43 Starts
31-6
1.76 era

I'm the ultimate die-hard Cubs fan.....but

Clayton Kershaw is THE Best Pitcher in baseball.
I just can't imagine anyone doubts that.

I'm actually pissed that the Cubs are going to miss him over the next 4-game series at Wrigley. He is one of the players that I'm more than willing to pay to see play the game.

A few weeks ago I recall a proclamation that Bryce Harper was undoubtedly the best player in baseball. Now I'm not sure he even has first round stats anymore.

Reality is, "the best" is fluid.

In a partial way, you are making the point I was making.

Last week, Joe Mauer was the AL Player of the Week. I wouldn't declare him the best hitter in baseball.
I was doing the same with Arrieta, only on a slightly bigger scale. It's the reason I referenced that single period of time.

As someone that lives in Chicago, I can say without exaggeration that not a single day goes by that I don't hear or read a comment proclaiming Arrieta to be the best, and that comes from a city in which we have another damn good pitcher with Chris Sale.
And depending on what metric you choose to look at, Arrieta has been THE best since June of last year.

I however was taking a grander sort of view. Kershaw has been just as good (or better) than Arrieta over the same "short" period of time; BUT, he's been this good for 6 seasons now.

Who will be the best from June1 to Oct 1? I don't know.
It could be Arrieta or Kershaw or Chris Archer or Joe Blanton

But for my money (a point I was making when I said he was a player I would PAY to see play) ........

Clayton Kershaw is THE best pitcher in baseball.

Navel Lint wrote:As someone that lives in Chicago, I can say without exaggeration that not a single day goes by that I don't hear or read a comment proclaiming Arrieta to be the best ...

In S Cal I never hear that. It's just Kershaw, Kershaw, Kershaw.

Nope. You can add in all the metrics you want, and it adds up to a nice run by Arrieta, really picked up in his age 29-30 years, over 200 k's for the first time, but give me a 28 year old who has over 200 k's six years running.

Hands down.

I give.

Mookie Betts is the best player in baseball....at least over the last two days....

DOUGHBOYS wrote:

I give.

Mookie Betts is the best player in baseball....at least over the last two days....

Sorry Bryce you're yesterday's news, bro.

I was thinking of nominating Brad Boxberger ... if only he could make it thru an inning between 2-month injuries. He's now in line for the Milton Bradley award.

RUNNING GAME DAY THREAD ...

Kyle Hendricks drew Maddux comps coming up ... he's getting there now.

Last 2 starts, 17 IP, 13k, 1 bb, lots of GBs, few hits.

Francisco Lindor is a winning baseball player. Love the way he plays the game...pure hustle, energy & heart.

so- coz and naval- do you like the new wrigley where bryants homer bounces off the video board- or the old wrigley where you get to see a bunch of out of work 40 year old men chasing after it on waveland?

Heard an interesting debate re: Kershaw vs. Koufax. Some statistical highlights:

Kershaw 121-57, 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, .5 HR/9, K/BB 3.9, 2.57 FIP, 157 ERA+, 50 WAR, 15 Shutouts
(as of 6/3/16)
Koufax 165-87, 2.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, .8 HR/9, K/BB 2.9, 2.69 FIP, 131 ERA+, 53 WAR, 40 Shutouts

Pretty damn close. Koufax played 12 years, Kershaw is in his 9th. Their career trajectories are the biggest difference. Koufax taking the typical lefty route of a few of years of wildness then dominant for 5 years. Kershaw "found it' almost right away and has been dominant for 5+ years. Koufax' '63, '65 & '66 seasons of otherworldly dominace is the biggest difference between the two.

With the four scoreless innings out up by Lackey, all five Cubs Starters have E.R.A.'s below 3.00
To those whose strategy it was to roster all Cubs Starters on fantasy teams....A big SALUTE to you!

Auction League and I lose two players today to paternity leave (he didn't look like he was expecting to me) and a family emergency leave...Not they they were superstars but it still hurts...silver lining in that at least it happened today and not tomorrow.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:With the four scoreless innings out up by Lackey, all five Cubs Starters have E.R.A.'s below 3.00
To those whose strategy it was to roster all Cubs Starters on fantasy teams....A big SALUTE to you!

Cubs only have two hits of Bradley so far...both doubles....

headhunters wrote:so- coz and naval- do you like the new wrigley where bryants homer bounces off the video board- or the old wrigley where you get to see a bunch of out of work 40 year old men chasing after it on waveland?

I wasn't sure how I would feel about the new board, but as soon as I walked in on Opening Night last year, I loved it. I like seeing replays and getting all the statistical information that was not possible on the center field board.
The funny thing is, I still look at the old board for the outs and count on the batter.

As for HR's on Waveland, I do sort of miss them.
Yes, there are still a few, but not as many.
The HR's on Waveland were actually cut way down a few years ago when the Cubs expanded the bleachers prior to the 2006 season. They added about 3/4 rows and 15 feet to the back of the bleachers.
I'll try and find some pictures, but the bleachers used to end at the start of the sidewalk on Waveland. In 2006 they added the extension that overhung the sidewalk on Waveland. That extra ~15 feet really made a difference with baseball flying out of the park.