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Participating in an NFFC DC football draft (there's a plug for you, Greg!), I was ridiculed for taking Eddie Lacy high in the second round.
"That's way too soon!"
"Lacy before Lamar Miller?"
It seems football drafters are just as prone to adp as baseball drafters. No imagination.
We fall prey to categorizing players before a draft. How has that worked for us?
Do we still think of Trout, Harper, and Goldy as the Big three?
Of course we don't.
The season changed that reckoning.
The season changes everything.

We think we're imaginative. We think we're ahead of the curve. But we're not.
This coming year, Jose Altuve will go in the top five of most drafts. It is inconceivable to us that he NOT be a top five pick.
Why didn't we think that way LAST year?
In practicality, it was because he never showed 20-homer power. Now that he has shown that, drafters will flock.
We're like that, you know.
It's funny though, if we were told before the season that Altuve would only have six more stolen bases than homers, we would not have drafted him highly at all.
But there he is with his 26 steals and 20 homers. A fantasy God when linked with his other numbers.

Offensively, we're a slave to homer/stolen base numbers. We draft those in hopes that the other three categories will sort of take care of themselves.
When they don't, it's not our fault, it's the hitters.
Altuve 20/26
Harper 22/17
Goldy 19/19

As you can see, Harper and Goldy are very close to Altuve's in these two categories.
Still, we will perceive Altuve as the better player.
We fall victim to the thought that each player will continue their greatness from season to season.
We thought we had not seen a ceiling for Harper or Goldy last year. That contributed to their top three status in drafts.
With Altuve's homers climbing from each preceding year, we only see greater heights for him.
Even with less thefts.

I am preparing for the PreMature drafts for next year. The first round is more clear than in past years. Most of the first rounders from last year have played well enough to repeat as first rounders.
Andrew McCutchen has played his way out of the first round.
Giancarlo Stanton may have finally hurt his way out of the first round.

Here is my list of guaranteed first rounders this coming year, in no particular order.

Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Paul Goldschmidt
Clayton Kershaw
Jose Altuve
Kris Bryant
Mookie Betts
Nolan Arenado
Anthony Rizzo
Manny Machado

This is only 10 players. The bottom of the first round will leave room for the 'Eddie Lacy's' of baseball. Maverick choices.
These will include blossomers like Wil Myers and Trevor Story or oldies like Encarnacion, Cano, Cabrera, or the annual 'maybe this won't be the year he gets hurt' guys like Stanton.
Some have played or ped themselves out of first round consideration.
McCutchen
Abreu
Dee Gordon

Compared to the next few rounds, the first round will be boring.
Where to take our Aces?
Which shortstop?
Buster Posey 19 in adp last year? Think his drafters got an edge?
Will Wilson Ramos be the new overdrafted catcher?

Screw Eddie Lacy detractors!
If we look back at drafts, we're never smart.
Yet, during drafts we call out folks for drawing outside the lines.
Wil Myers may be next years Jose Altuve.
We see the signs that he could do it. We just need the courage to act upon it.
If Myers is taken high in the first round, I won't hate.
In fact, I'll give the drafter a mental fist bump.

Edit- Drafting talk has got me ready for next year!
Are the draft room's open yet, Greg?

Looking forward to drafting again, too. One initial comment on your ten guaranteed first rounders is that I think Josh Donaldson belongs on that list. His value admittedly has some risk if you assume Encarnacion and Bautista both walk and are not replaced with at least decent bats, but Donaldson still is a helluva player in a favorable park. I have some ideas on other potential first rounders but do not think they are locks like Donaldson.

Mike

Bronx Yankees wrote:Looking forward to drafting again, too. One initial comment on your ten guaranteed first rounders is that I think Josh Donaldson belongs on that list. His value admittedly has some risk if you assume Encarnacion and Bautista both walk and are not replaced with at least decent bats, but Donaldson still is a helluva player in a favorable park. I have some ideas on other potential first rounders but do not think they are locks like Donaldson.

Mike

Ha!
Originally, I had Donaldson on that list. But this year, his numbers are like those of others. Encarnacion being one of those players.
And you're right. Donaldson in a lineup without Bautista and Encarnacion would change his landscape for sure.
I'm sure Donaldson will be in the first round of most drafts.

blah blah blah, draft? so, we're starting the pre-mature soon? when do we kds!?

Hear's a great question: Who has the higher ADP next year - Altuve or Betts? I'd say Betts but sense from your post that you might say Altuve. Altuve probably will be in my top five next year, but I'm not 100% positive at this point and don't think it is a complete no-brainer. Clearly, he is a top 7-8 pick and probably is a top five player or maybe higher. At first blush, prior to any prep, Betts is a top three player, at least for me. Interestingly, the 2016 numbers may not support my preference; probably more of an "eyeball" opinion based on my perceptions of future upside.

Mike

Where the shortstops go in next year's drafts will be fascinating. Can probably make a case for multiple SS going in the first two or three rounds. Perhaps the value of the top one or two SS will be depressed because there are so many attractive ones or that folks differ on how those top ones should ranked? Will we see mini-SS runs in drafts? It also will be interesting to see how folks draft catchers, a position that I really struggled with this season.

Mike

I can see both Altuve and Betts going in the top five and even in the top three of a lot of drafts.
There will be those who like Betts more because of lineup. Also because he is younger, there is always the perception that we have not seen his ceiling.
Altuve will get the positional vote, along with blossoming power and along with 56 stolen bases on his resume.
Amazingly, neither of these players will be even 27 years of age before next season.

NorCalAtlFan wrote:blah blah blah, draft? so, we're starting the pre-mature soon? when do we kds!?

Coming soon, Bryan!
I am hoping that one of us will break our streak of futility when it comes to figuring out pitching!

hey- i took altuve with pick 5 in last years premature. it pretty much stood up as his highest pick all year= but he was my 5th ranked player- and he wasn't coming back- so.... i love when those rounds are posted by you and we all get slammed- or someone says "great value" on so and so and you write you first "value" tirade of the new year. cracks me up- "prepping for the premature'....... football drafts are going strong, nfbc 2016 is in the home stretch- and i know you have at least 20 teams. but you? You are "prepping for the premature". gotta laugh.

btw- if kershaw doesn't pitch this year- will he be top 10 in premature?

btw brian- stop it in premature. go back to baiting the conservatives on trump!

And another btw-
8 of the 10 players listed as sure first rounders for next year, were taken in the top 10 picks of this year's PreMature.
We done good

btw congrats to mike and bryan for leading the way in the premature. nice work.

and more btw- what about BRYCE HARPER? cracks me up some more

and again- will BRYCE HARPER be the 1st "value pick" of the year? remember- whichever guy dan slams- that is his pick.

btw you're killing me, mike

btw i'll put you down for harper votto dozier first three rounds

headhunters wrote:and again- will BRYCE HARPER be the 1st "value pick" of the year? remember- whichever guy dan slams- that is his pick.

btw i do not have votto or dozier rostered on any of my teams this year.
i am an equal opportunity slammer.
truth be told, i could draft harper this coming year, but it would have to come at my price and i doubt that will happen.
harper is beloved by most, belittled by few. i like being in the minority.

Since this thread is an open mic (mike)...

Tebow gets a 'tryout' looked at by most major league teams, even at almost 30 years old.
Too funny.
Can a reality show be far behind?
Celebs get shortcuts in our society.
Any other 30 year old with a hankering to play baseball would 'try out' for an Independent League to see if he still had the chops to play.
Then PLAY.
Not Tebow.

A workout for scouts?
Their comments can be written BEFORE the work out.
'Good athlete' 'raw'.
C'mon Tim.
If you really wanted to be playing baseball this year, you would have been, you know, PLAYING BASEBALL this year.
Not preparing for a tryout preceded by a media blitz.

Shameless money grab. He even overthrows the T's in his signature.

I am looking forward to Dan posting in the draft room "Doughboys select unlisted player,Tim Tebow, UT, with round 43 pick".

Teufel Hunden wrote:I am looking forward to Dan posting in the draft room "Doughboys select unlisted player,Tim Tebow, UT, with round 43 pick".

Ha!
There is no way I'd consider him there!....maybe 47 or 48

headhunters wrote:hey- i took altuve with pick 5 in last years premature. it pretty much stood up as his highest pick all year= but he was my 5th ranked player- and he wasn't coming back- so....

And not one person said, "No value" or "bad value". Nobody ever says that because they know immediately that it's not proper.
There's 'value' in EVERY player!
In your case with Altuve, it's a slam dunk he doesn't come back to you. So why would Harper at pick 5 be considered 'good value', while a player like Altuve is met with "too soon!" ?
Because he was selected before his normal adp?
Big deal.

ADP itself, has become a performance contest.
I know a fellow who bragged about the 100's of points in green he got from 'value' in drafts.
His team is 14th in his league.
But hey, he's got a lot of 'value' .
I will overdraft some players and underdraft a lot of players.
As far as overdrafting, it means that I have many rosters with Marco Estrada, Chris Davis, Addison Russell, Steven Piscotty, and others. Some work out, some don't, but if a mistake is made, it's MY mistake.
I've stated before that I will never select Joey Votto again.
He drives me out of my gourd. And I don't even know what a gourd is.
Some players piss us off from the year before or maybe we plain don't like them.
ADP should never come into play with these types.
If drafting them, you know they're gonna do what they do best, piss you off even more.
I underdrafted Jake Arrieta, Matt Harvey, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Abreu for varying reasons.
If past their adp, I would have considered them. But only then.
This is how adp is important to me.
I know that there are more sheep than sharks in most drafts.
(I consider myself a dolphin- untasty for sharks, don't mingle with sheep)
ADP is a borderline for players. A tier for some. An alarm for others.
Some are fooled into thinking that the aggregate adp of a player represents 'value'.
It does not.
It is just the going price of a player.
Value is realized when the season begins.

Sorry- I just re-read this and it's another tirade of sorts about value.
I'll clam up now

Edit- I lied. I probably won't

DOUGHBOYS wrote:

Teufel Hunden wrote:I am looking forward to Dan posting in the draft room "Doughboys select unlisted player,Tim Tebow, UT, with round 43 pick".

Ha!
There is no way I'd consider him there!....maybe 47 or 48

My bad. I had assumed you would be taking Pelfrey there again

Teufel Hunden wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:

Teufel Hunden wrote:I am looking forward to Dan posting in the draft room "Doughboys select unlisted player,Tim Tebow, UT, with round 43 pick".

Ha!
There is no way I'd consider him there!....maybe 47 or 48

My bad. I had assumed you would be taking Pelfrey there again

Jerad Weaver. 2017's Mike Pelfrey. Can't wait!