AL Central Division: Do The Twins Repeat Again?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:59 am

Okay, my duties as a dad kept me from posting today's question about the AL Central Division, but there's still plenty of time today to tackle this one.

In the AL Central this year, who do you think will win the divisional title? Can the Minnesota Twins carry that second half surge into 2007 and win the Central Division title again? Or will the Tigers bounce back again and win the AL title? Do the White Sox make it back into the playoffs this year? And is there ANY chance that the Indians and/or Royals finish above .500.

Finally, who will be the MVP of the Central Division this year? I can certainly think of one dominant pitcher who could earn it, but let me know what you think. All candidates are eligible.

Thoughts?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:10 am

I have a hard time with people thinking this is such a tough division. The Chisox pitching is thin and their outfield is not very good. Detroit- well you have to do it 2 in a row and hope Sheff, Guillen, and Mags stay pretty healthy.

Minnesota- the logical choice but that pitching could be real thin after Johan and Carlos Silva

Cleveland the trendy pick- not a very deep lineup outside of the big 3, a bullpen in chaos, and only above avg starting pitching.

My bet is Detroit figures out a way again, or Cliff Lee steps up big, and Sizemore has an MVP campaign and the Tribe takes it.

[ February 20, 2007, 10:19 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:35 am

Clearly a division where any of four teams could win this year (sorry if you are the lone Royals fan - but your time is coming).

My pick would be Cleveland - they will have to get their pitching straightened out. Not so concerned about the bullpen, but the starters after Sabathia and Westbrook are going to have to step it up - they certainly look to have an improved lineup though and I will pick Travis Hafner for the MVP of the Indians and the Central Division.

Tampa Munchers · Post by **Tampa Munchers** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:43 pm

I think this could be one of the most interesting divisions to watch this year.

I am going with the trendy pick and taking the Tribe to win this division. I feel their lineup is tops in the division from 1-9. Sizemore and Hafner will be MVP candidates. Marte will have a breakout year. Peralta will bounce back (He hit 350 the las few weeks of the season with contacts, and had LASIK surgery in the off-season) and the unsung hero will be Josh Barfield

The SP's are good enough to get keep ballgames close and their bullpen should be much improved with the additions and young arms getting more experience.

AL CENTRAL MVP SIZEMORE - He will be a first rounder in the NFBC next year. 320 30HR's 100R 75RBI's and 25SB's are not out of the question.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:29 pm

Yeah, what Perry said, except I'd give the Tigers a slight edge. You've got four teams with a legitimate shot at the division title. The Twins and Tigers having the best shot, with the White Sox and Indians trailing by a gnat's eyelash.

Kansas City - They should be much improved and will win at least 70 games. If everything goes perfectly, they could flirt with .500. Their bullpen is better and as a result they won't throw away as many games this year.

In my opinion this is the best division in baseball top to bottom.

Cleveland - Loaded with young arms in the bullpen. They, like the Royals, gave away numerous games last year, but with a year of maturity, and experience, the bullpen should experience fewer meltdowns this year and give away fewer games. Barfield helps the defense a little. The Indians will win more games, but it won't be enough. Hafner will put up the best offensive stats in the division, but I just can't have MVP and DH in the same sentence.

Chicago - I don't like the short term impact of their moves. Garcia's departure leaves a hole at the end of the rotation, and I don't see a 2007 answer on their current roster, but someone could surprise. Crede, Thome, Podsednik, Erstad and Contreras all are injury risks, and Uribe certainly has some distractions with off the field legal problems. Just too many things need to go right to tag them as favorites, but they're still contenders.

Minnesota - The best team on paper. Pitching - solid. Outstanding defense up the middle. With Mauer and Morneau, they'll score enough to win 90+ games again.

Detroit - Yes, they strike out alot, have a horrible OBP, and Carlos Guillen might be the worst defensive SS in the AL since Julio Franco held the honor in the mid 80's for the Indians. But the Tigers are more than the sum of their parts. They have heart, they have grit, and infused with Leyland's winning spirit, they find ways to win. The Tigers win the division this time and Jim Leyland gets the MVP!

[ February 20, 2007, 09:32 PM: Message edited by: Liquidhippo ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:47 pm

Kansas City - their offense should be better this year, but their PITCHING BLOWS, AGAIN!!! maybe 65-67 wins this year

Cleveland - offense has improved. sowers with another year of experience. i see them around .500

Chicago - Lost pitching depth. Podsednik hurt. Jenks isn't the answer. I see Chicago dropping about 8-10 wins this year.

Minnesota - Bullpen solid, question marks in the starting pitching. i think they'll win 93-85 games this year, but will it be enough?

Detroit - solid team. added sheffield and subtracted no one of significant value.

i think the division champ race will be a close one (just like last year). if Minnesota can get solid performance from their young SP, i give them the edge over Detroit.

[ February 20, 2007, 09:48 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:34 pm

I don’t know who will win the AL Central, but I’d be willing to bet that Minnesota will NOT be competitive.

Offensively, more than half of all Twin starters played over their heads in 2006. I doubt anyone is planning to pay for a repeat from Morneau (321-34-130), Cuddyer (24 HR, 109 RBI), Castillo (584 AB, 296 BA, 25 SB), or even Mauer (347 BA) or Hunter (31 HR, 98 RBI). Expect the Twins’ hitters to regress significantly in 2007. I forecast their team slugging percentage in the bottom third of the AL.

Pitching is even worse. Last year, the Twins got a 2.16 ERA from Liriano (121 IP) and a 4.32 ERA from Radke – a solid #2 pitcher who really came on strong after a terrible first two months. Those guys are gone. In their place? Ramon Ortiz (gasp!) and either Baker or Perkins.

Minnesota’s bullpen was the best in baseball last year with a ridiculous 2.91 ERA. Needless to say, they won’t be counting on a 0.89 ERA from Dennys Reyes or a 2.19 ERA from Pat Neshek in 2007. With no consistent 6+ IP starters (besides Santana), the Twins bullpen will be pushed hard this year. Expect solid results from Nathan, et al, but nowhere near last year’s totals.

Bottom line, Minnesota will struggle to break .500 this year. Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago will fight for the division.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 3:28 am

I have to go trendy also. The Indians based mostly on my gut. I agree with what some others have said. I've been picking the Indians for weeks now and saying Hafner is mvp. Sizemore continues to improve. VMart has another big offensive year. Barfield becomes a star and Peralta bounces back. Sabathia wins the cy young and the other sp's are good enough. Borowski isn't spectacular, but somehow gets the job done most of the time. Tigers are the biggest dissapointment. Like most teams that make a big move up. The next year they take an almost as big a step back despite Sheffield. Remember the White Sox of last year adding Thome? Speaking of the Sox they have weakened themselves in the sp department and oh btw Ozzie's an idiot which will be widely discovered this year. The twins come in second, but Mauer, Morneau, and company don't live up to 2006. Garza isn't a start yet and Silva lets the team down. They'll miss radke and Liriano. Next year though look out. The Royals are better. Maybe much better, but not good enough. Look out for the Royals in 2009 or 2010. Laugh now, but nobody thought Tigers 2 years ago.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 3:35 am

I have the top 4 teams in this division within 6 games of each other. Cle and the Sox in a virtual dead heat, Min 2 games back, then Detroit. But Leyland is probably good for 4-6 games alone, which put all four within 2 games of each other. Great race, too close to call.

In the cellar, KC has the worst staff in baseball - losses will pile-up for them in this division. They won't get beyond the mid 60s in wins.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 4:30 am

I am with the rest of you. You cannot write off CHISOX, MIN, DET or CLE. I went with DET. Solid, but unspectacular hitting up and down the line-up (unless Sheffield regains form), but it is the DET starters (Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, Rogers) that, to me, are the deepest and will be the edge.

MVP will be Santana.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 5:29 am

I don't think this division will be as close as most think. The Indians should be the clear favorites. Their overall depth is uncomparable, a great starting lineup, especially if Peralta hits and pitching that will keep them in every game.

The biggest story in this division will be the White Sox. They will fade to one of the worst teams in baseball. No ace on the staff, a patched up bullpen, a center field situation that is just as bad as the Marlins, and all this is topped off by having Ozzie Guillen as their Manager. A long year for the Palehose.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:07 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I don't think this division will be as close as most think. The Indians should be the clear favorites. Their overall depth is uncomparable, a great starting lineup, especially if Peralta hits and pitching that will keep them in every game.

The biggest story in this division will be the White Sox. They will fade to one of the worst teams in baseball. No ace on the staff, a patched up bullpen, a center field situation that is just as bad as the Marlins, and all this is topped off by having Ozzie Guillen as their Manager. A long year for the Palehose. Wow! One of the worst teams in baseball? So, no rebound for 27 year old Buehrle? No love for Vazquez's underlying stats? Garland and Contreras are chopped liver at the back end of the rotation?

I don't know. I have seen worse than Thome, Konerko, Dye, Pierzynski, Iguchi, and Crede providing offense, Podsednik or not. And Jenks (25) answered a few questions last year. MacDougal (29), Aardsma (25), and Sisco (24) are really just coming into their own. Has potential to be a pretty stout patch job.

You might be a bit hard on these boys, Ozzie or not. I still think it will be close, IMHO, and CHISOX will be one of the players. I guess we will know soon enough!

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:26 am

as a sox fan- i resemble those words! i would worry about what the rockies are throwing out there at second short center middle relief and starting pitching- before i worried about the white sox. fans scream about the high price of tickets etc. but when someone like the sox say- hey it really isn't the smartest thing in the world to throw 100 million 7 year contract at a pitcher- they say they are trashing the team. the sox may not win the central- but it will be the best division in baseball. ya the sox have some pitching issues- but they can trot out 4 relief pitchers that can throw 100 miles an hour- 4 starters that at least have had 1 decent year in the major leagues and some hitters that can also play defense. the yankees don't have the pitching. the red sox might- but their bull pen is a bunch of guys that have pretty much gotten shelled in ball parks that were much easier to pitch in than theirs. not as good as last year? maybe. one of worst teams in baseball- no way.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:34 am

Competitive Division

Order of finish: Detroit Chicago Cleveland Minn.

Detroit Sheffield brings leadership Strange as it sounds. Line up has a nice mix of young and old but Pitching is best in Division Bullpen solid and ballpark will enhance their pitching

Chicago 2-3 games out Good line up but too many performance question marks with their Starting Pitching Does Buerlie rebound Is Contreras starting to fizzle out Garland below average and CF is aproblem

Cleveland 4-5 out If they get off to a good start could surprise but they never do and Borowski will hurt as year goes on CC is solid Lee seems like hes regressed Sowers 2nd year pitcher Hitting should be improved

Minnesota The over achieving Twins finally come down to earth 8-9 games out Mauer must not get injured Cuddyer and Morneau can they do it again? Hunter another injury risk and Rondell White is well Rondell White but its there Pitching which will hurt Silva is pathetic and they will need Garza and Bonzer to perform like seasoned veterans

KC: No need to discuss

Marty

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:46 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I don't think this division will be as close as most think. The Indians should be the clear favorites. Their overall depth is uncomparable, a great starting lineup, especially if Peralta hits and pitching that will keep them in every game.

The biggest story in this division will be the White Sox. They will fade to one of the worst teams in baseball. No ace on the staff, a patched up bullpen, a center field situation that is just as bad as the Marlins, and all this is topped off by having Ozzie Guillen as their Manager. A long year for the Palehose. Wow! One of the worst teams in baseball? So, no rebound for 27 year old Buehrle? No love for Vazquez's underlying stats? Garland and Contreras are chopped liver at the back end of the rotation?

I don't know. I have seen worse than Thome, Konerko, Dye, Pierzynski, Iguchi, and Crede providing offense, Podsednik or not. And Jenks (25) answered a few questions last year. MacDougal (29), Aardsma (25), and Sisco (24) are really just coming into their own. Has potential to be a pretty stout patch job.

You might be a bit hard on these boys, Ozzie or not. I still think it will be close, IMHO, and CHISOX will be one of the players. I guess we will know soon enough!

[/QUOTE]They have implosion written all over themselves. Jenks, Mc Dougall, Aardsma, and Sisco coming into their own? A collection of inconsistency is a little more like it. Contreras is a head case, Garland is disliked by his own Manager, and Buehrle is looking to get out of town.

Mix in a possible felon at short and the most disliked player among his peers behind the plate and voila!, Everything is in place for a very bad team.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:48 am

I hate to diagree with EK and HH, but I must. I think they weakened themselves. I know they have contract issues, but with the team they have assembled they should have gone all out1 more time to try to win another WS. Instead they got weaker. I had Contreras in 2 sat's last year and he had a great 1st half. I saw him quit, on field last year during a pennent race. Yes he had hamstring or grion issues I don't rmrmber which, but even Hawk briefly turned on him for quiting, then tried to retract his statements. He wears his allegence on his sleeve though, so when he sees something like that he can't keep his mouth shut. Then there's Ozzie. Don't discount the damage a bad manager can do if properly motivated. Again, he's trying to move one of the best 2 hitters to 7th in the batting order. Last year he tried obvious 9th place hitter Uribe there. Oops. That didn't work. Now he doesn't even know who will hit there. Maybe we'll move Iguchi anyway. Maybe I'm the idiot (many would agree), but hoonestly Iguchi is about about as good a 2 hitter I have ever seen. He takes pitchs, hits to right when it makes sense to, can hit to all fields when he wants. Has more power then he's shown, will take a walk, and overall plays smart. An obvious choice for the bottom of the batting order. The Sox do still have the horses. Can they get them to run together though with no one at the reins? P.S. Ozzie wouldn't go to the white house when they won the WS, but loves Hugo Chavez yet becomes a U.S. citizen. Maybe I have a grudge against him, but if he likes the socialist guy that confiscates private property for himself. Maybe he should stay in Venezuela, which btw is one of the scariest places I have ever been too. Sorry for the personal rant.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:59 am

vander actually- i agree with everything you said. i just don't think they are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball. and i especially agree on the ozzie and venezuela stuff- but hey they are like movie stars- i ignore everything they say and do- except the baseball, movie part.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:53 am

I hear you Vander and Doughboys...Ozzie is a jerk of the first order. He and his pal Fidel-lite can XXXX-off as far as I am concerned. It is just the CHISOX have been more than competitive under him, so I do not expect that to change.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 11:15 am

I may be wrong. Often am. I just have a gut instint that the Sox will lose ground this year not make up ground. They may not be anong the worst teams in baseball. That would be falling off a cliff. It has happened before though. Worst case scenario on the south side Crede's back goes out, none of the new sp's can get out regularly, they miss Uribe's defense (Crede's too), Thome's back goes out, cf remains unresolved, lf becomes unresolved, none of the new set up guys gets out regularly. Ok you make this stuff up about any team and almost certainly won't all happen. Ozzie is working on p@#$%^g off Pierzynski now about playing time. IF this goes bad it COULD go very bad in a hurry. Not saying it will, just saying it could. They could also win the division again if Ozzie some how manages to motivate them with all this ridiculous stuff. BTW I agree HH Iguchi will be back in the 2 slot by May after another experiment doesn't work.

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:01 pm

A really competitive division other than KC. Although I agree that they may not be more than a few years away if they can develop a few young pitchers. I put Detroit at the top of the list due to experience, talent, and intangibles. Perhaps it's just a gut feeling. However, I do like the Indians as a darkhorse. Minnesota could give them both a run for their money though. The Sox are still competive but in my estimation did nothing to improve their team this year. If they get off to a slow start, by July after Ozzie's fired and takes employment as a speech writer for Hugo Chavez, (a job which is clearly more in line with his skill set) they may rebound some ( there's still a good deal of talent there) but not enough to win the division. TWENTY FOUR MORE DAYS........................VEGAS BABY!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:22 pm

The Indians scored the second most runs in baseball last year. Their rotation is very good and their defense underperformed last year; virtually the same guys made up the third best defense in baseball the year before. Their moves this offseason were made with that in mind as well.

Okay so the bullpen isn't so good but at least it can't get any worse.

I think the White Sox and Detroit will be the third and fourth best teams in the league, however (the Yankees being the first).

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 3:05 pm

I just can't believe the Twins are being rated so poorly here and someone even said sub .500, my gosh, what is that boy thinking or smoking? The Twins pitching is questionable but if they get some respectable innings out of Ortiz and or if Ponson does something, they will be in decent shape. If Ortiz and Ponson don't come through they still have Garza, Baker, and Slowey waiting in the wings for their shot. The position I worry about with the Twins is 3B and none of you mention that at all. When the smoke clears and fall baseball begins, the Twins will still be playing.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 3:16 pm

Don't get me wrong Ply I like the twins and did pick them for 2nd. I just think 2008 is more like their year. 3b is a problem. I don't think Koskie is coming back. Maybe not ever. 2008 they'll get Liriano back. Garza and Bonser and co will have more experience. The Sox will be dibanded. Dye, Buehle, Crede will all be free agents if not traded before then. The Royals still won't be ready, but should still be improving, and the Indians will still be giddy from winning in 2007. hard to say what will happen to the tigers. Will Leyland be back if they don't win? Will Pudge be over the hill? Will Sheffield? How bout Rogers? He's as old as dirt, although not quite as old as me. How will Guillens legs be? They could descend as fast as they ascended. good luck. I root for the Twins, if only because they are a small market team that's well run. I like that.