Biggest Shockers/Bargains

[Bronx Yankees]

Slow day on the Boards. Here's some new stuff to chew on. Every season, there are surprises, although for some reason this year it just seems to me that a few more guys than usual seemingly came out of nowhere to have hugely-impressive fantasy seasons. I had a few minutes to kill, and so I skimmed the NFBC Player Rater for some of the biggest surprises (at least to me), and then matched them with their ADP. While many of these players' breakout seasons would have been impossible or near-impossible to predict, the following list does reinforce the concept that leagues often are won in the middle and later stages of drafts (and in FAAB). Kudos to anyone who got multiples of these players on a single team.

C - Tough call as there were few strong, unexpected performers on the Player Rater. Heck, Lucroy is the only catcher in the Top 100. I'll give the award to Wilson Ramos (Player Rater = 130; ADP = 231). I'll also call out for special mention Gary Sanchez (ADP = 455) and Sandy Leon (no ADP) for strong performances over a limited part of the season (which depressed their rankings on the Player Rater).

1B - Wil Myers (Player Rater = 27; ADP = 208). Although he has cooled-off some, an incredible value no matter how you slice it.

2B - So many to choose from. I'll leave some 2B-eligible players for SS and 3B and go with my main man and favorite FAAB pickup, Hernan Perez (Player Rater = 80; ADP = 695). Where the hell did this guy come from? The guy has only played 105 games so far this season, but few have filled-up categories like Perez. What's really nice from a fantasy perspective is that the guy seemingly tries to steal a bag every opportunity he gets.

3B - Let's go with Eduardo Nunez here (Player Rater = 21; ADP = 668). Might be the single biggest bargain of the 2016 fantasy season. (What odds could you have gotten that Eduardo Nunez essentially would return second-round value this season?) Honorable mention goes to Jose Ramirez (Player Rate = 51; ADP = 435). Missed him everywhere; man, an extra buck or two in FAAB would have secured me some nice stats.

SS - A number to worthy contenders to choose from, but, really, the award has to go to Jonathan Villar (Player Rater = 4; ADP = 317.) Wow! For an average Round 22 pick, you got arguably the 4th most valuable player in the Big Leagues. While not quite the epic bargain as Villar, kudos to Jean Segura (Player Rater = 23; ADP = 184). After years of mediocrity except at the very top, shortstop might be the most interesting position to draft in 2017.

OF - A number to choose from; here are my favorites: Ian Desmond (Player Rater = 15; ADP = 107), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (Player Rater = 71; ADP = 314), Melvin Upton, Jr. (Player Rater = 82; ADP = 511), and Adam Duvall (Player Rater = 115; ADP = 453). Desmond gambled with free agency and lost big time; a player that seemingly no team wanted. Bradley was a defensive wiz with a questionable bat. Upton gave up the name BJ in the hopes of turning around a career after several truly putrid seasons, and it worked. Duvall turned out to be the right minor league OF prospect to draft.

SP - Again, many choices. Here, you truly could put together a decent staff with late-round picks. The winners are: Rick Porcello (Player Rater = 16; ADP = 327); J.A. Happ (Player Rater = 44; ADP = 330); Tanner Roark (Player Rater = 64; ADP = 390); Danny Duffy (Player Rater = 69; ADP = 453); Drew Pomeranz (Player Rater = 78; ADP = 395); and Michael Fulmer (Player Rater = 88; ADP = 614). Who would have thought that: (a) Porcello actually would live up to that ridiculous contract; (b) Happ (and Porcello) would be at least in the discussion for AL Cy Young; (c) Roark would hold onto - and run away with - the Natonals' 5th starter job and be one of their most consistent starters; (d) Duffy would largely stay healthy and live up to the potential that we previously only saw in glimpses; (e) Pomeranz would be stellar for the Padres and seemingly not miss too much of a beat pitching in Fenway; and (f) it would be Fulmer - and not Giolito, Glasnow, Reyes, etc. - that would be the boy wonder of prospect pitchers. Last, and not least, I have to include Bartolo Colon (Player Rater = 120; ADP = 460). Every year I under-estimate this portly chucker to my own detriment.

RP - Three big candidates for me. Sam Dyson (Player Rater = 110; ADP = 518) and Alex Colome (Player Rater = 112; ADP = 384) are strong candidates, but the big winner has to be Jeanmar Gomez (Player Rater = 85; ADP = 726).

Some huge surprises here, for sure, irrespective of what one may think about the accuracy of the Player Rater. Did I leave any big ones out? Feel free to supplement, comment or criticize.

Mike

[jvetter]

Kyle Hendricks is my favorite bargain pitcher of the year. He wasn't drafted as low as the ones you mentioned. ADP of 214 and is 20 on the player rater. He went from being threatened by Adam Warren for the 5th spot in the rotation to have roughly equal fantasy value to Jake Arrieta. What a difference 5 months of baseball makes on perspective.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good stuff, Mike.

Those rankings are so tilted towards certain categories, especially stolen bases, that I find them useless.
Still, I get where you're coming from and I do have one more player that deserves mention.

Trea Turner has eight homers, 23 stolen bases, and a .343 batting average while leading off for a World Series contender.
All while learning a new position.
Without him, I believe the Nationals would be in an actual race for the pennant, not coasting towards one.
For fantasy owners, he also offers dual eligibility at 2b/of.
If we were to pro-rate his stats over a full 162 game schedule, his line would read....
.343/120/24/90/69...ahem, WOW!

[Bronx Yankees]

Kyle Hendricks is my favorite bargain pitcher of the year. He wasn't drafted as low as the ones you mentioned. ADP of 214 and is 20 on the player rater. He went from being threatened by Adam Warren for the 5th spot in the rotation to have roughly equal fantasy value to Jake Arrieta. What a difference 5 months of baseball makes on perspective.

One of my personal favorites, too. I have him on two of my three big teams. I thought about including him on the list but ultimately left him off because he is not as big a surprise as some of the others. In this era of ever-increasing velocity, I understand that Hendricks has one of the slowest fastballs in baseball this side of Jered Weaver. However, Hendricks knows how to pitch and has tremendous accuracy and great movement on pitches. With all due respect to Arrieta and Lester, he might be the Cubs' most valuable pitcher this season. (Baseball also should love him, because he gets the ball back from the catcher and is ready to pitch again.)

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

Good stuff, Mike.

Those rankings are so tilted towards certain categories, especially stolen bases, that I find them useless.
Still, I get where you're coming from and I do have one more player that deserves mention.

Trea Turner has eight homers, 23 stolen bases, and a .343 batting average while leading off for a World Series contender.
All while learning a new position.
Without him, I believe the Nationals would be in an actual race for the pennant, not coasting towards one.
For fantasy owners, he also offers dual eligibility at 2b/of.
If we were to pro-rate his stats over a full 162 game schedule, his line would read....
.343/120/24/90/69...ahem, WOW!

Wow is right. Good addition. I did mention the partial seasons of Sandy Leon and Gary Sanchez, and if we are going to include small sample sizes, then Trea Turner has to be on the list. It will be interesting to see just how high he goes in drafts next year. (Actually, forget next year; I mean next month. ) In my original post, I commented how interesting shortstop will be to draft next year, but 2B also is looking quite delectable. Altuve is having an MVP year. Dozier homers every other day or so it seems. Kipnis, Odor, Segura, Murphy, LeMahieu, Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, etc. - you can say that 2B is pretty loaded, too. I do not recall ever having so many appealing choices amongst Middle Infielders as what we will have to work with for 2017.

Mike

[Deadheadz]

.

Gotta agree on Tigers Fulmer.

Many missed this guy everywhere in DC drafts but would give their right UCL to have him on their teams.


I'd have to say Dozier's 40+ HR is a good shocker while Machado stealing zero bases is a bad shocker.
.

[Bronx Yankees]

[quote="Deadheadz

I'd have to say Dozier's 40+ HR is a good shocker while Machado stealing zero bases is a bad shocker.
.[/quote]

Machado is a head scratcher. Last year, 162 games played, 20 SB (in 28 attempts). This year, so far, 137 games played, 0 SB (in 3 attempts).

Can't remember a player ever going from 20 SB to zero the following year absent some major injury (which has not happened here). Still, at least Machado owners are getting a pretty good season even without the SBs.

Mike

[Edwards Kings]

Murphy's the guy for me. Three position eligibility. ADP 165 (which is about where I got him, sixth pick of the 12th round), Rater 11 (and not because of the SB). Talk about you mid-round BA anchor.

[Rainiers]

Great read for the insomniac within me. Thanks.

Just a few more that I think deserve at least an honorable mention here.

Justin Verlander was the 49th pitcher on the ADP board and has returned top 10 value. And since the beginning of May, a Whip well under 1 to go with a K Rate of over 10 likely makes him a top 5 pitcher the last four months. Granted, Hendricks was a bigger surprise, but Justin was a clear bargain. Same thing could said for Napoli. An ADP in the 300s, who would thought his player rating in September would be higher than Chris Davis, Jose Abrue, Eric Hosmer and Albert Pujols?

And just a couple of suggestions for the small-sample-size impact player list. Despite his ADP rising throughout the spring, Trevor Story has to be considered a surprise. 27 HRs, "on pace" to hit 45/90/120/.278/13 is phenomenal. Also Edwin Diaz. I'm a Mariner fan, and he was not on my radar as a player who would make an impact this year...it looked like he was a SP at least a couple years out. Instead he is a stellar closer with a K rate over 15/9?! Surprised the bejesuses out of me.

Anyways, thanks for the list. Can't wait to see where these players get drafted next year.

[Bronx Yankees]

Great read for the insomniac within me. Thanks.

Just a few more that I think deserve at least an honorable mention here.

Justin Verlander was the 49th pitcher on the ADP board and has returned top 10 value. And since the beginning of May, a Whip well under 1 to go with a K Rate of over 10 likely makes him a top 5 pitcher the last four months. Granted, Hendricks was a bigger surprise, but Justin was a clear bargain. Same thing could said for Napoli. An ADP in the 300s, who would thought his player rating in September would be higher than Chris Davis, Jose Abrue, Eric Hosmer and Albert Pujols?

And just a couple of suggestions for the small-sample-size impact player list. Despite his ADP rising throughout the spring, Trevor Story has to be considered a surprise. 27 HRs, "on pace" to hit 45/90/120/.278/13 is phenomenal. Also Edwin Diaz. I'm a Mariner fan, and he was not on my radar as a player who would make an impact this year...it looked like he was a SP at least a couple years out. Instead he is a stellar closer with a K rate over 15/9?! Surprised the bejesuses out of me.

Anyways, thanks for the list. Can't wait to see where these players get drafted next year.

Great additions, and all were great surprises this year. Verlander burned me a few years ago when I got crappy stats for a pretty high draft pick and, frankly, I was skeptical he would ever be elite again. He proved me wrong. He's had a great season, especially the second half. Napoli also has been a great surprise. He's had a monster year and many folks drafted him as a backup. Never thought he'd stay healthy all year and put up such big power numbers hitting in Cleveland. Story definitely outplayed his draft position. His injury was a real shame - would have been great to see where his stats would have wound up if he'd stayed healthy. Diaz also has been great as a closer. We had a lot of new closers emerge this year, and some I can see falling back to mediocrity, but not Diaz. Really annoyed I missed out on him everywhere in FAAB - wish I could go back in time and add a few bucks to my bids. (One new closer I did land in a few places was Tyler Thornburg, who also has been nothing short of magnificent.) Finally, although also small sample size and not quite the gaudy stats of some, where the hell did Aledmys Diaz come from? Anybody even know anybody that drafted him in a 50-round DC draft?

Mike

[jvetter]

Finally, although also small sample size and not quite the gaudy stats of some, where the hell did Aledmys Diaz come from? Anybody even know anybody that drafted him in a 50-round DC draft?

Mike

He was probably drafted in most DC drafts that ended after the news that Jhonny Peralta was going to be out for an extended period of time. He went in the 34th round of the March DC draft I was in. If I remember correctly, Aledmys Diaz was mentioned as a possible replacement at the time.

[Bronx Yankees]

Finally, although also small sample size and not quite the gaudy stats of some, where the hell did Aledmys Diaz come from? Anybody even know anybody that drafted him in a 50-round DC draft?

Mike

He was probably drafted in most DC drafts that ended after the news that Jhonny Peralta was going to be out for an extended period of time. He went in the 34th round of the March DC draft I was in. If I remember correctly, Aledmys Diaz was mentioned as a possible replacement at the time.

Oh, OK. I don't remember that, but I think all or most of my DC drafts were earlier (last one was in February), unless I totally missed that news (which definitely is possible). Kudos to whoever got him. I'm pretty sure that whatever round they selected him in, they got a great bargain, even accounting for the injury. I confess that he was not even on my cheat sheets for the live drafts, and I probably include too many players on my sheets. Completely missed him.

Mike

[NorCalAtlFan]

positive-i drafted Diaz in the 50th rd of KJ's keeperish league.

negative-the other 49 picks

[BEF]

Two more guys, who have eerily similar numbers: Brad Miller at #259, qualifying for three positions while banging out .247/28/72/66/6. And an even bigger bargain with Jake Lamb, with ADP of #341, currently at .258/28/88/77/6. Sure would like to see a few more swipes and a higher BA, but it's league average and each of them should end up with 30 dingers. I'll take that from guys taken in the late teens/early 20s rounds.

[lrr]

Changing topics slightly. But for me one of the biggest changes or shockers this year it seems is the number of platoon players. It started early this year when Pedro Alvarez started to platoon. An early rotowire thread said he would be a full time DH when he signed and Trumbo would lose at bats. Nothing worse than having to check to see how many lefties are pitching against Baltimore to see if he should be in the lineup. Moreland, Naquin, Seth Smith, Conforto (when he played) and many more. Now Brian McCann (with the arrival of Billy Butler) can't DH against left handers. I realize some of these players are not the best but I will be watching platoons more closely than ever next year.

[Rainiers]

This thread almost begs for its counterpart... "Biggest Shockers/Busts". All it needs is someone to do the initial heavy lifting like Mike did here. I think some of the catagories, besides "Injuries" and "Closers" of course, could be "Cy Young/MVP Winners of 2015" or "Rookie Flameouts..." or "Guys that needed to keep taking PEDs"...

[Bronx Yankees]

This thread almost begs for its counterpart... "Biggest Shockers/Busts". All it needs is someone to do the initial heavy lifting like Mike did here. I think some of the catagories, besides "Injuries" and "Closers" of course, could be "Cy Young/MVP Winners of 2015" or "Rookie Flameouts..." or "Guys that needed to keep taking PEDs"...

I'll let someone else do the heavy lifting, but don't mind starting things off with a few that come quickly to mind:

A.J. Pollock - devastating injury for many, including folks using a 1st round pick or high 2nd round pick during the first weekend of live drafts

Dee Gordon - not a guy I was worried about in terms of juicing ...

Matt Harvey - sucked and then got injured

Zack Greinke - folks expected so much more than they got

Dallas Keuchel - same as above

David Price - got wins and Ks but not much else

Chris Archer - got Ks but not much else

Jason Heyward - perhaps the most disappointing season after signing a huge contract; can't even blame injuries for his stats

Craig Kimbrel - not worth the high draft pick needed to own him

Buster Posey - same as above

Lucas Duda - was a popular sleeper who slept through the season

I'm sure there are tons of players I'm forgetting, but this could get things started.

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

Kyle Schwarber belongs on the same injury list as A.J. Pollock.

Mike

[Rainiers]

OK. A good start. I'll add the ones I owned, which is a fair number, unfortunately.

Jacob DeGrom and Adam Wainwright, who join many other pitchers who underperformed my expeditions and the price paid.

Rookie Flameouts I owned many shares in: AJ Reed, Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Jose Peraza, Blake Snell.

Ironically, Giancarlos is one fellow I liked a lot at the beginning of the year. Fortunately, I only ended up with him on one team. I was twice as unlucky with Harper. Schwarber was the one that really hurt as I owned him almost everywhere.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's add the fellows that killed 'projectors'. Players that may or may not had a bad year, but hampered teams while lagging in a category or two.

Heyward- 6 homers, eight stolen bases in almost 500 at bats.
Here is how bad Heyward has been this year....
Alexie Ramirez, who was DFA'd leads or is tied with Heyward in every category but Runs.

Brett Gardner- in 500 at bats, Gardner has a 15/.258
His owners expected much more.

Starling Marte- His owners are ecstatic about the stolen bases.
But 9/46 in the power department is half of what was expected.

Jacoby Ellsbury- He always seems to be on lists like this.
Usually for getting hurt.
This year, Ellsbury got over 500 at bats.
And still only had a 9/18 hr/sb to show for it.
Ellsbury is already playing out his contract.

Joe Mauer-
We don't expect much from Mauer.
We do expect batting average.
Mauer is hitting .263

Buster Posey-
13/68
'Nuff said

Brandon Belt-
Not for me. I expected his 15 homers.
Still, some project him for 30 every year.
That ball park just depresses numbers too much.

Adrian Gonzalez-
Gonzalez has had seven 27-home run seasons.
17 dingers this year.

Carlos Correa-
22 homers in 387 at bats last year
19 homers in 529 at bats this year
Not what first round drafters were hoping for.

Paul Goldschmidt-
His drafters liked that he may throw in 20 stolen bases
This year, Goldy stole 26 bases and threw in 20 homers, not the 35 expected

Bryce Harper-
The moon was projected.
50 homers was not out of the question.
He has 24.
What odds could we have gotten that Goldschmidt and Harper would combine to have more stolen bases (47) than homers (44) ?
More judy than punch this year.
Harper doubly disappointing in that his batting average fell almost 100 points from last year.
He'll deny it, but that series early in the season vs. the Cubs changed the course of his year.

[Le Grand Orange]

Here are some other busts based on ADP relative to current player rating ranks.

C: D'arnaud ADP - 7 Rank - 44

1B: Really no busts for first round picks. Closest is Chris Davis ADP - 6 Rank - 13

2B: Wong ADP - 11 Rank - 32

SS: Reyes ADP - 16 Rank - 27

3B: Duffy ADP - 14 Rank - 33

OF: Gomez ADP - 18 Rank - 49
Burns ADP - 38 Rank - 95
Choo ADP - 41 Rank - 111
Deshields ADP - 50 Rank - 112
D. Santana ADP - 75 Rank - 114

SP: Cole ADP - 11 Rank - 131
Gray ADP - 22 Rank - 166
Liriano ADP - 42 Rank - 320
Severino ADP - 58 Rank - 300

RP: W. Davis ADP - 20 Rank - 76
Rosenthal ADP - 30 Rank - 130
Street ADP - 53 Rank - 213

There are more, but these are some that stood out that haven't been mentioned yet.