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Even though there are still a few more days in the 2016 NFBC season, we're already making plans for next year's NFBC. 2017 will be the 14th season of the NFBC, which is pretty amazing when you think about it. Tom and I have promised to return for a 14th season and we sure hope most of you do, too!

This could be one of our most challenging seasons when it comes to placing the guarantees because there are so many uncertainties with these state DFS bills. Let's start with New York, which is asking all current pay-to-play fantasy game operators to apply for a temporary license by Nov. 15, 2016. At that time the state has 90 days to decide whether to grant a license or not. And if a license is granted, it's possible that taxes of up to 15.5% of net revenue could be assessed to us. How we deal with those additional fees is another layer we must deal with before the 2017 season.

States like Virginia (exempt), Indiana, Texas, Tennessee and Missouri are also to be dealt with before the start of the season. All of those states have lumped season-long games with DFS and we must work with each to see what they expect from us to allow their state residents to play in the NFBC going forward.

We'll have to deal with all of that over the next few months, but right now I'm looking for feedback on two of our national contests. I have a separate thread for feedback on the NFBC Cutline Championship in 2017. This thread involves the Rotowire Online Championship, so let's get started:

Rotowire Online Championship: This year we were able to grow the grand prize to $100,000 by adding in a live component to our online format. We added 15 leagues (180 teams) in the Rotowire Online Championship Plus to give us a total of 1,632 teams in this contest. Even though we fell short of our goal of 1,776 teams, the format allowed us to grow the grand prize and to award the biggest league prizes in the NFBC's history for a 12-team national event. The league champs in the 7 $750 OC Plus leagues will earn $4,000, while the 8 league champs in the $1500 OC Plus will earn $9,000.

There was some concern that it would be tough to win the overall title from these higher-priced leagues because the competition is more intense. That has proven to be the case, but one $750 OC Plus team is 13th overall and three $1500 OC Plus teams are in the Top 50, with the highest being 30th overall. Five percent of the teams in this competition came from the $750 OC Plus and 7 of the Top 100 teams are from this format, while 6% of all teams in this competition came from the $1500 OC Plus and 8 of the Top 100 teams are from this format.

So the decision is to:

1. Continue with the OC Plus as part of this contest and keep the grand prize at $100,000, or

2. Go back to just the $350 Online Championship leagues and go back to the $80,000 grand prize. If we did this, we might offer the 12-team leagues as just private leagues, but we'd have to see about that.

I have feelings both ways for this contest, but let's hear from you first. Thoughts?

Greg

I admittedly didn't play this format but the 2nd option and a return to an $80,000 prize seems optimal. It really is apples and oranges to have those different price points play together. Contrasting my 2016 Auction Championship league vs. the $250 satellite I'm in tells me all I need to know.

Hi Greg

This is my second year playing NFBC. I've done 3 live 12 team events and one main event.
I like the 12 team live drafts they seem to suit my style for running a fantasy baseball team.
I don't see myself doing a main event next year. I'm hoping to do the live 12 team events.
My opinion would be to divorce the live events from the $350 online. If I do my math correctly
180 teams x $750 is $135,000. The payouts for 1st and 2nd is $90,000. I don't know what your take is
maybe divide up the $45,000 between your profit margin and more league prizes if any left or some
payout structure for the top overall finishers.

I hope you keep the live 12 team events.

Thanks

Joe Lecak

I think the argument that winning overall from the higher-entry live events being more difficult is valid.

Probably reasonable to separate and scale back the primetime to a smaller overall top prize but with better odds from a smaller contest, maybe along the lines of the auction champ format where focus is mainly on winning the league.

KJ Duke wrote:I think the argument that winning overall from the higher-entry live events being more difficult is valid.

Probably reasonable to separate and scale back the primetime to a smaller overall top prize but with better odds from a smaller contest, maybe along the lines of the auction champ format where focus is mainly on winning the league.

I've received some emails from folks who loved the $750 live events we ran in Las Vegas and if the penthouse suites are available it makes sense to keep those part of the overall championship. It's no different than the $150 Draft Champions Leagues and the $400 DC Leagues. I will try to keep these available for Las Vegas, Chicago and Online as part of the overall championship if I can secure the space.

Now we did fill 8 $1500 OC Plus Leagues last year, so there is a market for a higher-priced 12-team format. Not only that, but 8 people are winning some nice $9,000 league prizes from this format. I will figure out a way to deal with that pesky 12-team format, but something tells me there is a market for this format as maybe a stand-alone private league contest. I'll give it some thought.

It's amazing how our baseball and football contests are so different. Football has turned into a 12-team format where we're barely hanging onto the 14-team format. Baseball, on the other hand, continues to be dominated by our harder 15-team format and the 12-teamer is more suited to a lower price point. Even within the Online Championship, we have almost 700 fewer teams in baseball than football. Tough to figure out.

Thanks for the feedback. I have a little better idea on what we'll do for 2017. Thanks all.

The number of Primetime Plus leagues this season was very encouraging. It shows a willingness to play the 12 team events for more than a minimum entry fee. $1500 for a league prize of $9,000 with a shot at the grand prize seemed to work out for the NFBC. I don't think it works out for the players because of the competition at the price point.

The old 12 team super was a $2500 entry with a shot at a $20,000 first prize. That seems way more attractive than the Primetime Plus offerings. I would like to see 12 team higher stakes events offered and promoted but not necessarily tied to an overall championship. I for one will be scaling back the number of leagues that I participate in next season. Having high stakes leagues in both the 12 and 15 team formats will insure that my entires investment will not be scaled back as well.

KJ Duke wrote:I think the argument that winning overall from the higher-entry live events being more difficult is valid.

Probably reasonable to separate and scale back the primetime to a smaller overall top prize but with better odds from a smaller contest, maybe along the lines of the auction champ format where focus is mainly on winning the league.

Bingo. My thoughts exactly. I like a 12 team option but I would prefer more of a private league structure so I'm not competing against the $350 Entry leagues. I decided not to do any OC Championship Plus because when push came to shove I didn't want to have my money in a league where I'm competing against the lower entry fee entries and have that money going toward an overall prize who have a better likelihood of cashing in the overall prizes.

COZ wrote:

KJ Duke wrote:I think the argument that winning overall from the higher-entry live events being more difficult is valid.

Probably reasonable to separate and scale back the primetime to a smaller overall top prize but with better odds from a smaller contest, maybe along the lines of the auction champ format where focus is mainly on winning the league.

Bingo. My thoughts exactly. I like a 12 team option but I would prefer more of a private league structure so I'm not competing against the $350 Entry leagues. I decided not to do any OC Championship Plus because when push came to shove I didn't want to have my money in a league where I'm competing against the lower entry fee entries and have that money going toward an overall prize who have a better likelihood of cashing in the overall prizes.

You're just not going to generate enough revenue from 8-10 leagues to create a national contest with a worthy overall prize structure. I think the idea of having private 12-team leagues make a lot of sense. If you pay Top 3, you can easily pay something like $10,000, $4,000, $1,000 in league prizes or $11,000-$3,000-$1,000, which would be pretty damn cool. No reason to take a thousand or two out of each league for a grand prize of $5,000-$10,000, right?

Good point Greg, even for the auction champ lges with a 20k overall my personal preference would be to just have those as standalones w better lge payouts. You could probably even fill a few some super/ult/dia 12-teamers given that some prefer those.

KJ Duke wrote:Good point Greg, even for the auction champ lges with a 20k overall my personal preference would be to just have those as standalones w better lge payouts. You could probably even fill a few some super/ult/dia 12-teamers given that some prefer those.

Just a correction: NFBC Auction Championship has a $25,000 grand prize based on 11 leagues and 165 teams.

All of the feedback is giving me a good idea on which way I want to go with all of this. Working on the baseball site now, believe it or not. Never rest for the weary!!

And thanks for the insight on the AL and NL Auctions. We may offer a second time for each in Las Vegas this year and add a little to the pot for those. All is good there.

The main reasons I didn't want to play in this proved to be exactly right. Nobody was winning this out of one of these things, so why should part of their money be wasted, getting dumped into an overall prize pool. Certain people I won't name acted like this was the best thing ever invented, just because I didn't like it. They even said they would support it. But when it was time to sign up, it was crickets. They made me out to be evil for not liking it. At least I don't lie, and mislead ownership. I said exactly what was wrong with it, and now everyone seems to realize that I was exactly right.

I probably would not be able to play in a contained league, even if a 12 teamer, due to reasons that may not need rehashed, so it looks like I will stay on the sidelines another season unless cutline rules change. I do think you are on the right track with the contained league options taking over this area.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

COZ wrote:

KJ Duke wrote:I think the argument that winning overall from the higher-entry live events being more difficult is valid.

Probably reasonable to separate and scale back the primetime to a smaller overall top prize but with better odds from a smaller contest, maybe along the lines of the auction champ format where focus is mainly on winning the league.

Bingo. My thoughts exactly. I like a 12 team option but I would prefer more of a private league structure so I'm not competing against the $350 Entry leagues. I decided not to do any OC Championship Plus because when push came to shove I didn't want to have my money in a league where I'm competing against the lower entry fee entries and have that money going toward an overall prize who have a better likelihood of cashing in the overall prizes.

You're just not going to generate enough revenue from 8-10 leagues to create a national contest with a worthy overall prize structure. I think the idea of having private 12-team leagues make a lot of sense. If you pay Top 3, you can easily pay something like $10,000, $4,000, $1,000 in league prizes or $11,000-$3,000-$1,000, which would be pretty damn cool. No reason to take a thousand or two out of each league for a grand prize of $5,000-$10,000, right?

Personally, I would love to see this private league structure & payout schedule for higher dollar entry 12-teamers. My personal preference would be to see the Auctions go this route as well...just my thoughts.

Statistically speaking....things held pretty true. Of the 1632 total teams, 180 of them were from the Online Championship Plus leagues which is 11%. In the current top 50 there are 5 from Plus (10%), in the current top 100 there are 13 from Plus (13%). In the current top 200 there are 30 from the Plus (15%).

I don't disagree with Chad's and KJ's comments above. Seems like a long shot for the winner to come out of the live 750/1500 bucket given perceived level of competition, crazy faab stuff, etc. I'm just pointing out that the overall top 50, top 100, top 200 had "statistically normal" representation from the Plus contests.

JohnP wrote:Statistically speaking....things held pretty true. Of the 1632 total teams, 180 of them were from the Online Championship Plus leagues which is 11%. In the current top 50 there are 5 from Plus (10%), in the current top 100 there are 13 from Plus (13%). In the current top 200 there are 30 from the Plus (15%).

I don't disagree with Chad's and KJ's comments above. Seems like a long shot for the winner to come out of the live 750/1500 bucket given perceived level of competition, crazy faab stuff, etc. I'm just pointing out that the overall top 50, top 100, top 200 had "statistically normal" representation from the Plus contests.

Thanks JP, interesting ... I should've taken a look at the data myself before speaking. It's surprising that the higher value leagues were in the ballpark of where they should be statistically, which at least partially dispels the idea that it's harder to win from those leagues. Although more difficult to quantify, I still believe the case of extreme outliers over time is more likely to come from a contest where the odds of having several bad players is more likely.

I think one of the bigger reasons more Pluses didn't fill was the schedule. If I remember correctly the vast majority, if not all of these, were scheduled during the live weeks when the Main Event and the high dollar ancillary leagues were being held.

I think it's been proven that when the given the choice between high dollar 15-team and 12-team options, those within the NFBC community that pay those 4-figure or higher entry fees will almost always choose the 15-team option.

Schedule a few earlier in the draft season, early to mid-March, and I'd bet a few more fill.

Go back to the primetime format but base it on 10 leagues. Increase the league prizes a little bit from the old format, and then add to the pool if you fill more than ten. That is another option to consider, instead of completely going contained route, which is a good option as well. There could even be 750 and 1500 levels in the same overall pool and based on higher number. 750 is enough money that it will be good competition. It would make far more sense to have these in a different pool than the entire online championship pool, which is not likely to be won from one of these. Dipping down to 750 level to contribute to overall pool might be a hell of an idea actually.

Enjoyed Primetime, but didnt' enter this year as suspected winners would come from cheaper leagues. VIew unchanged. Tried ME for 1st time, with 2 teams (both at least finishing in the money), but as exepcted its largely about injuries. Prefer 12 teams with similar level of competition. Played a $1K 12 team satelite 2 years ago and it was much weaker than PrimeTime. So you need either a bigger entry fee (Super like) if private or to cobble together enough for a decent overall from just the higher price points, similar to auctions.