Nolan Arenado

[Edwards Kings]

So, as I was eating my barbeque for lunch today, I was thinking:

1) If I could get BBQ twice today it would be a shame I couldn't get it three times.
2) The world is a better place due to country music.
3) Why isn't Nolan Arenado the first name in my mind when considering who I would get if I had the #1 pick?

Yes, yes...Trout, smout...Arenado has the eye (Dan, did you hear he 10% walk rate last year), the power (hctx rate is one of the best), and the results (average 40+ HR, 105+ R, and 130+ RBI over the last two years). He will turn 26 in April.

We are talking vintage Miggy here (OK, not quite the Miggy BA). Trout stole 30 bases last year and that is quite an edge given his other numbers, but what if it drops back to 10 or 15?

I do not know....it seems like Arenado has #1 written all over him ("....#28 in your program....").

[DOUGHBOYS]

I love Arenado and will tell an Arenado story later when having time.
I don't believe that Arenado will go ahead of Trout, Betts, Goldy, or even fellow third baseman Kris Bryant in many drafts next year.
As fantasy drafters, we want it all. We're selfish that way.
We want all five categories.
Arenado is a four category player. A super four category player, but a four category player nonetheless.
If drafting Trout, Betts, Goldy, or Bryant, drafters can hope that those four will come close or beat Arenado in four categories, KNOWING they have the edge in speed.
This year, Trout beat Arenado in three categories.
So did Mookie.
So did Bryant.
Goldy and Altuve in two.
We want the full moon for our top pick, Arenado will always have a sliver missing.

[Edwards Kings]

Yes, I understand that missing sliver, but Arenado has that chance to monster up on the other four categories in a way to make you forget his lack of speed (yes, I am whipping out my lite-sabr on you, Jedi):

He hits the ball (contact rate 82+). Has that in common with Betts and Machado, who needs to be included in the conversation.
He hits the ball hard (125+ hctx). Goldy and Trout are consistently that elite though I am concerned with Goldy.
He hits the ball high (44% and 47% fly-ball rate the last two years)
He plays half his games in Coors.

Most consistent metrics for power. just sayin....

[headhunters]

wayne- I get the feeling that question was almost rhetorical. the good news is kds 3-on and you will get arenado with your pick at 3.

[Edwards Kings]

wayne- I get the feeling that question was almost rhetorical. the good news is kds 3-on and you will get arenado with your pick at 3.

True. Who do you think the consensus #2 is? Betts?

[DOUGHBOYS]

wayne- I get the feeling that question was almost rhetorical. the good news is kds 3-on and you will get arenado with your pick at 3.

True. Who do you think the consensus #2 is? Betts?

First two drafts- Trout/Betts...Betts/Trout

Arenado, pick number 6 in both.

[Bronx Yankees]

Arenado, pick number 6 in both.

Now that's value! (Wayne: I'm with you. At least as of now, I rank the top picks as: Trout, Arenado, etc.)

Mike

[headhunters]

it is just roster construction. if you are truly trying to pick what will become the top player in any given year going forward- it will almost certainly not be arenado. no sb's.

[Edwards Kings]

So, how much better would Arenado have to be in total HR, R, and RBI over the guys who can steal bases in order to make him the worthwhile #1?

Last year, Arenado was at the top of the heap with a total of those three (call them Power Categories) with 290. That was 9.0%, 10.7%, 12.4%, 15.1%, 21.8%, 27.2%, and 28.9% more than Betts, Bryant, Donaldson, Trout, Machado, Altuve, and Goldy respectively while hitting an elite 0.2945 (higher than some on the list, lower than others).

Last year will not be next year I know, but all eight of the guys mentioned above preformed at elite levels and should be expected (barring injury) to reach at least similar levels in 2017.

Just making conversation....

[headhunters]

the point was/is he may beat some of them- but not all. goldshmidt stole 32. about 30 more than arenado. I am guessing that if goldy has 25 homers arenado would have to hit 60-65 homers to equal that out. if 100 rbis maybe 160. you are a numbers guy- check the player rater on this site. pretty easy to figure- or at least come close.

[NorCalAtlFan]

wayne, i agree-ish

i still lean bryant and maybe even machado over arenado because of the positional advantage of both. to me, having multi position eligibility in a dc is mas importante

or another way of putting it, bryant is hillary and arenado is trump

go braves!?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Last year will not be next year

Teach me Master. Grasshopper want to learn.

[Deadheadz]

.

Machado of 2016 shows how much value can be lost by one catagory evaporating.
If the Astros have decided Altuve will never lead off again he may become the 2017 version of Machado in this regard.

Even Mike Trout hasn't been as reliable at category 5 as we'd like to see.

Counting on SB from first round players has become a crapshoot but I'll side with those who know you can count on a lack of SB from certain players including Arenado.


.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Machado has lost nothing. Let alone, ahem, value.
Machado still has the skill and opportunity to steal 20 bases.
I heard that last year is not next year.
The Orioles had red lights this past year.
An Earl Weaver year.

It brings up an interesting point. And question....
If you could be guaranteed 20 stolen bases from Machado next year and only 3B eligibility...
Or take your chances with stolen bases plus 3B and SS eligibility, which would be chosen most?

[Deadheadz]

Machado has lost nothing. Let alone, ahem, value.
Machado still has the skill and opportunity to steal 20 bases.
I heard that last year is not next year.
The Orioles had red lights this past year.
An Earl Weaver year.

It brings up an interesting point. And question....
If you could be guaranteed 20 stolen bases from Machado next year and only 3B eligibility...
Or take your chances with stolen bases plus 3B and SS eligibility, which would you choose?

Who wouldn't take the guaranteed production? Sadly there are no guarantees.

If you could guarantee Machado would get zero SB, would be be taken top 15 ever again?

.

[Edwards Kings]

Last year will not be next year

Teach me Master. Grasshopper want to learn.

Yeah, yeah...Captain Obvious, I know...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Machado has lost nothing. Let alone, ahem, value.
Machado still has the skill and opportunity to steal 20 bases.
I heard that last year is not next year.
The Orioles had red lights this past year.
An Earl Weaver year.

It brings up an interesting point. And question....
If you could be guaranteed 20 stolen bases from Machado next year and only 3B eligibility...
Or take your chances with stolen bases plus 3B and SS eligibility, which would you choose?

Who wouldn't take the guaranteed production? Sadly there are no guarantees.

Me.

If you could guarantee Machado would get zero SB, would be be taken top 15 ever again?

Machado is going at pick seven this year.
Last year with 20 stolen bases under his belt, his adp was 8.

.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There's a lot being said about the first round. The choices are intriguing. A little something for everybody.
Five category players.
Premier four category players.
Great arms.
Positionality.

Awesome stuff, really. And just plain good fun.

[headhunters]

you know deadheadz- you can look this stuff up. in 390 ab's in 3 hole altuve= 14 homers 12 sb's 61 runs 58 rbi. and 341 ave. if he gets 600 ab's that is 65% of that. so 23 homers 100 runs 100 rbi 20 sbs and 341 average. pretty good and better than any year arenando has had.. I will take any of them arenando goldy altuve any of them- but if these guys steal then some of them will surpass him. and to also be captain obvious- are we talking about who or whom people will pick- or who will have more value. just because people draft harper high every year doesn't mean he is good every year. he is good one in four years.