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He is going to be the best catcher in 2017. Vintage Piazza. Of course, all he will have to do is continue to get HR in 40% of his flyballs.....

The first catcher taken in both early drafts.
His story should be an interesting one to follow next year.
Trea Turner too.
We sure put a lot of expectations on these kids that have wonderful partial years.
Carlos Correa had a nice full year in 2016. But he was drafted so high by his owners that they came away a little disappointed.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Trea Turner too.
We sure put a lot of expectations on these kids that have wonderful partial years.

Why? You do not think he can replicate a .370 OBP/.342 BA with a 4% walk rate and without the benefit of a 39% hit rate?

Sorry...SABR got a hold on me for a minute.

I do like Turner and Sanchez, but yes, I think they will be overdrafted/overpriced.

Both Turner and Sanchez have a built-in yahbut...

Turner's steals give him a really nice floor even with a drop elsewhere.

If the Yanks do as they say, Sanchez will pick up even more AB at DH than Posey/Lucroy. Most #1 catchers get 55-70 percent playing time. Posey and Lucroy are around 80 percent. Sanchez could approach 90 percent, which would be off the charts for a catcher-eligible.

ToddZ wrote:Both Turner and Sanchez have a built-in yahbut...

Turner's steals give him a really nice floor even with a drop elsewhere.

If the Yanks do as they say, Sanchez will pick up even more AB at DH than Posey/Lucroy. Most #1 catchers get 55-70 percent playing time. Posey and Lucroy are around 80 percent. Sanchez could approach 90 percent, which would be off the charts for a catcher-eligible.

If failing, Sanchez will also have a lot of yahbuts.

He's never hit 20 homers in a Minor league season.
He's never played over 125 games in a season.
He averaged a homer every 10 at bats in the Majors, never came close to that in the Minors.

I don't believe the volume or the total at bats is a thought as much as a repeatable performance with those added at bats.

Last year, Gary Sanchez hit 20 homers in only 53 games and 229 plate appearances. As Wayne notes, he had a 40% HR/FB ratio, which is unsustainable. Basically, there is no way in hell that Sanchez hits at - or anything close to - this pace in 2017. In this case, regression is practically a certainty.

But, as Todd notes, between catching and serving as DH, Sanchez may lead all catchers in plate appearances. If he stays healthy and does not fall completely on his face, he should be hitting in the middle of the Yankees' lineup and in a batters' park. He could regress mightily and still hit 30 (or more) HR in a full season. I'm skeptical he hits .299 again, but I can see him hitting for a decent average. His K% (24.9%) and BB% (10.5) were pretty good for a rookie power hitter. I had him on multiple teams and caught most of his at bats. I thought he showed a pretty disciplined eye most - but not all - of the time. His power seems legit, in that the ball rockets off his bat. The question will be whether he will take walks, not expand the strike zone, and be willing to take what he is given and not try to homer every time up.

It would be dangerous to extrapolate limited 2016 performance into 2017 projections (in my unscientific opinion), but even with falling back to Earth, he still seems likely to put up positional-best power stats, or at least be in the discussion with Posey and Lucroy for the top catcher. Unlike last season when Posey was the first catcher taken everywhere and then no catchers were taken for many rounds, I expect 2017 will see Sanchez, Posey and Lucroy all taken, in some order, within 20 picks or so of each other, probably in Rounds 3-4. Of those three catchers, Sanchez might have the lowest floor given his lack of experience, but he also probably has the highest ceiling.

Or, I could be totally wrong.

Mike

Ted Simmons had a run of seven straight 600+ PA seasons in the 70's. In 1973, as a 23 year old, Red Schoendienst (still kicking @ 93) played him behind the plate 153 times, half a dozen times @ 1B and a couple games in the outfield. He even gave him a game off en route to a 690 PA season. Simba also chipped in a 650 PA season as a 33 year old.