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So we all prepare a little bit different for the draft every year. One of the things I do is have a general idea of what category goal should be to finish up the 75th percentile in my league. I only had two major 15 team leagues last year and from what I can see, as we know HOMERS should be up and stolen bases should be down. Looking across some other Nfbc leagues the following numbers seem to be generally accurate:

HR: 300
SB: 140
K: 1350
SV: 90

Anyone finding anything drastically different than this? Insane to me that it may take 300 HR now to finish 4th in the category. Also, here's to SB's dying because nothing is worse than chasing Elvis Andrus in an auction when he brings nearly nothing else to the table.

Those are the questions, aren't they? I do not have the numbers at 75% because I track to 80%, but the biggest question will be do you buy into the offensive binge from the last season and a half as being representative of the new norm. Here is what I have, at 80% of the Overall, from 2016, 2015, and 2014 respectively:

BA: 0.2713; 0.2697; 0.2674
R: 1,078; 1,009; 989
HR: 308; 263; 237
RBI: 1,045; 975; 956
SB: 147; 145; 155

ERA: 3.670; 3.517; 3.321
W: 96; 98; 99
WHIP: 1.222; 1.202; 1.191
K: 1,389; 1,375; 1,415
SV: 89; 88; 89

What I myself would consider rock solid steady? Wins (toughest to predict, easiest to project needs in total), Saves (most volatile position as far as turnover, but again, you know what you need), K's (ERA up, WHIP up, but no real fluctuation in strike-outs) and Stolen Bases (but tight...may be impacted by whether or not Raja Davis has a job!!!! I kid, but not really).

BA, HR, RBI, and R all on a three year incline with a corresponding increase in ERA and WHIP. Are the "Pitchers Years" now victim to the offensive resurgence?

But of course this is just history and may not reflect next year (i.e. what would the pitching numbers have been if the Mets, Dodgers and Indians staffs been healthy all year?). How many more teams will adopt the 8th inning closer or 5-out closer? Lots of questions, few answers until next September. Good luck.

Yea I don't even track Wins, runs, RBI because they're usually there either way. I just don't know where to peg HR. Maybe 300 is a bit aggressive but the best practice might just be to do some mocks and see where teams are coming out based on projections.

HR is a bit weird to me. Looking at the best power hitters (HR 25+) in 2014, 2015, and 2016 to see if there is something that jumps out, the numbers have gone up each year (27, 41, 66 respectively). Their GB/LD/FB profiles are, on average, basically the same (38/21/41, 39/20/41, 40/20/40) or at least not enough to say "They hit more HR because they hit more FB or LD".

What IS weird is the hard-hit contact rate. For 2014, 2015, and 2016, the hctX was 124, 119, and 115 respectively or going DOWN as more balls are going over the fence. So it is not more flyballs, and it is not that they are squaring up more.

HR distance per ball park went up measurably in 16 parks between 2015 and 2016, down measurably in 12 and two were bascially the same, so the ball is not necessarily traveling farther. Eighteen ballparks had 17 or more HR hit in them this year, five more than fifty (#1 to #5 Chase Field, Busch Stadium, Comerica Park, Safeco Field, and Progressive Field), but there is no correlation between those parks where the ball was traveling further to the parks where more HR were hit.

So, if I had to guess, I would guess that unless players start hitting more flyballs or can square up better, I would think the HR rate will go down, maybe not to 2014 levels, but down.