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You buying in? After they stretched him out, he had 24 starts, averaged pitching into the 7th inning, averaged better than a K per IP, didn't walk anyone (K:BB ratio of 4.5, walked four batters twice in the time frame with seven games with no walks), and although he did fade late, so did KC.

Is his slider that good now? K rate way up, much better control...good half season plus or did age 27 brains kick in?

I'm buying. The late season fade is a little disconcerting, but I believe both Duffy and the Royals will have a great year.

Rainiers wrote:I'm buying. The late season fade is a little disconcerting, but I believe both Duffy and the Royals will have a great year.

Yeah, I get that, but we KNOW this guy. He has been around a few years, never really had swing-and-miss stuff and had poor control. Then in 2016 his K-rate went from undraftable to unhittable and has elite control.

I am intrigued. I guess the development of an effective slider to go with the 94+ heat and CU can lead to an uptick in K's, but where did the control come from all of a sudden? Career year or real change?

There is a precedent for turn-arounds that may be out of the blue.

Cliff Lee and Jake Arrieta come to mind.

Duffy has always been talented but injuries and inconsistencies have held him back. Also of note, last year he pitched solely from the stretch which seems to have simplified things and allowed him to repeat his delivery improving command & control.

Duffy's 2016 starting-pitching fastball velocity was up all year, as compared to 2014 and 2015, and it's why I think 2016 should be sustainable. But the 2016 velo faded as Yost kept him in late in games once he was stretched out. A lot will depend on Ned Yosts' utilization of Duffy in 2017. If he continues to send him out for 95-110 pitches per game, every game, there will not be much left in the tank after the All Star break. But by then, Duffy should have banked 140ip with great ratios and about 140 Ks. If Ned is more judicious, and learns from the 2016 overuse and abuse that resulted in an ERA of about 6.75 and a whip of over 1.50 over Duffy's last seven starts of the year, I think we could instead see 30 starts at around 6 innings per game for 180 ip, 180 Ks, an ERA of around 3.00 and a Whip under 1.10. That's a decent floor under a high ceiling for Duffy next year, and in my mind a worthy investment. PITCHf/x graph from Fangraphs.

Thanks Robert. Makes sense and the graph certain indicates a tired arm (dropping about 2 mph off the fastball from those first starts). I guess we will just have to see if he carries the control gains over into spring training.

Atlas wrote:There is a precedent for turn-arounds that may be out of the blue.

Cliff Lee and Jake Arrieta come to mind.

Understood....it could happen...but Arrieta and Lee are the exceptions to the rule it seems to me.

ctmbaseball wrote:Duffy has always been talented but injuries and inconsistencies have held him back. Also of note, last year he pitched solely from the stretch which seems to have simplified things and allowed him to repeat his delivery improving command & control.

I had forgotten...I remember now reading where he was pitching solely out of the stretch. Thanks.

I am from the show me twice crowd, so either it is "gamble" for me or an opportunity (maybe the last) to pick up a sterling skill set pitching in a weak division relatively cheap.

Good stuff, Robert. The KC bullpen might not be as deep this season, especially if Strahm gets a rotation spot, so Yost might be more inclined to keep leaning on Duffy with higher pitch counts.

Good point about Strahm and the depth of their bullpen after losing Davies and Holland, Yah Mule. The thinner the bullpen the harderYost will be on Duffy's workload unless the likes of Vargas and Ventura can pick up the slack. Hopefully they resign Holland. I think I'm shifting towards being cautiously optimistic on Duffy.

In any case, a great question posed from the King from the warm Duluth...