FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

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Greg Ambrosius
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FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:26 pm

Tom and I have the 6th pick in tonight's FSTA draft that is being broadcast on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. This draft starts at 7 pm ET and consists of 13 teams and 29 rounds. Should be fun.

Kyle Elfrink, Jeff Erickson and Jim Bowden will analyze the picks. RT Sports is running the draft and the board should be available to the public. If anyone has that ink please post here. The NFBC finished 2nd last year in this league behind champion Ray Murphy, so we will try to do even better this year. Wish us good luck.

We're live from Nashville!!!
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by 76erfan » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:32 pm


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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Tom Kessenich » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:16 am

Here's the team we drafted. Greg and I are pretty happy with it. Strong blend of power, speed and average on offense and we really like our Top 4 starting pitchers.

C-Wellington Castillo
C-Sandy Leon
1B-Edwin Encarnacion
2B-Ben Zobrist
SS-Xander Bogaerts
3B-Adrian Beltre
MI-Tim Anderson
CI-Mike Napoli
OF-Kris Bryant
OF-Jose Ramirez
OF-Jose Bautista
OF-Carlos Gomez
OF-Jose Peraza
UT-Hernan Perez

P-Yu Darvish
P-Johnny Cueto
P-Cole Hamels
P-Matt Moore
P-J.A. Haap
P-Alex Cobb
P-Tyler Glasnow
P-Cody Allen
P-Adam Ottavino

B-Greg Bird
B-Yangervis Solarte
B-Matt Andriese
B-Mike Montgomery
B-Raul Mondesi
B-Chris Hermann
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Yah Mule » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:23 am

Looks pretty solid, except you got Jose Peraza not Jose Peralta. That was a great pick because you had a slow team up until that selection. You also did well to get the last really trustworthy closer. I was pretty surprised to see Allen, Wade Davis and Edwin Diaz slide to round 11.

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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Dat Bum » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:36 pm

Solid value where you landed Tim Anderson and Greg Bird. I don't see much difference between Tim Anderson and Elvis Andrus. Andrus went four rounds earlier in this FSTA draft. Greg Bird could easily be a poor man's version of Tommy Joseph (8 rounds earlier) or your Mike Napoli pick (7 rounds earlier).

I agree with you on the outlook of the top four starting pitchers you landed. Certainly some adequate starting pitchers in Happ and Glasnow as well. I think CAllen is safe in the 9th and with Ottavino you just have to hope Greg Holland finds a different landing spot than the thin air of Colorado.

If I have one critique it is that two of the main speed options on this roster (Peraza and HPerez) are largely dependent on playing time becoming available for them to do their thing. Without significant playing time for those two you may still get your stolen bases when they do play, but you have two R+RBI drains in the form of what Jarrod Dyson has produced the past few years.

Well done boys and thanks for sharing the results.

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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Baseball Furies » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:03 pm

Okay, I followed the entire thing last night as I always do, and I hate to be the party-pooper, but here goes: I'm not certain, Greg, but don't you currently hold a significant position with the FSTA? And don't you run the industry's only high-stakes, season-long fantasy baseball competition which has now set the standard for all other season-long fantasy baseball competitions? And if so, please explain to us why this is still a pointless 13-team competition format with 29 rounds now with trading no less?! Last I checked, 15 teams and 30 rounds is the standard, and there is no trading in the NFBC because it would essentially invalidate the entire competition, so why continue to keep the FSTA League format the way that it is? It is of little to no significant value to the majority of us as either a benchmark for what the true experts will or would do in the NFBC, or at the very least that much help for the novice NFBC player, and nor does it mirror anything in our fantasy baseball reality be that as it may. I really wish you would push for a change to this competition since it is billed as the first experts draft of the fantasy baseball season, and the commentators are constantly referencing the NFBC and ADP during the draft which has nothing to do with our competitions since it's a mock draft (which is fine, they're fun to have and look at), and one that is completely not like our competitions. There's enough of these to come as it is with TOUT and LABR. Can't there be one "experts" competition that is as "real" as possible for us to track and perhaps be engaged in? How about this one with NFBC rules and a $1000 FAAB and no ridiculous trading? And what if the top two finishers in the NFBC Main Event were teams 14 and 15 for the FSTA Event next year, and they got flown in to be there live to draft for the event against the industry experts? This would make for some great PR and marketing opportunities for the NFBC if actually your guys were in it using your format and your rules.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:03 am

Baseball Furies wrote:Okay, I followed the entire thing last night as I always do, and I hate to be the party-pooper, but here goes: I'm not certain, Greg, but don't you currently hold a significant position with the FSTA? And don't you run the industry's only high-stakes, season-long fantasy baseball competition which has now set the standard for all other season-long fantasy baseball competitions? And if so, please explain to us why this is still a pointless 13-team competition format with 29 rounds now with trading no less?! Last I checked, 15 teams and 30 rounds is the standard, and there is no trading in the NFBC because it would essentially invalidate the entire competition, so why continue to keep the FSTA League format the way that it is? It is of little to no significant value to the majority of us as either a benchmark for what the true experts will or would do in the NFBC, or at the very least that much help for the novice NFBC player, and nor does it mirror anything in our fantasy baseball reality be that as it may. I really wish you would push for a change to this competition since it is billed as the first experts draft of the fantasy baseball season, and the commentators are constantly referencing the NFBC and ADP during the draft which has nothing to do with our competitions since it's a mock draft (which is fine, they're fun to have and look at), and one that is completely not like our competitions. There's enough of these to come as it is with TOUT and LABR. Can't there be one "experts" competition that is as "real" as possible for us to track and perhaps be engaged in? How about this one with NFBC rules and a $1000 FAAB and no ridiculous trading? And what if the top two finishers in the NFBC Main Event were teams 14 and 15 for the FSTA Event next year, and they got flown in to be there live to draft for the event against the industry experts? This would make for some great PR and marketing opportunities for the NFBC if actually your guys were in it using your format and your rules.
I agree with you Mike as this 13-team format has less relevance to listeners than if it was a 15-team or 12-team league. I've never heard of a 13-team mixed league before, have you? I think it once was a 12-team league and they wanted to add on more team, so it became and has stayed a 13-team league ever since. I think it's fun to look at the draft picks, but you are right as far as anyone duplicating these picks it's impossible because nobody plays in a 13-team league.

I actually resigned from the FSTA board in November. Our bylaws state that you can have only one board member per company and when we joined forces with SportsHub Technologies and League Safe we had three board members (me, Paul Charchian and Rob Phythian). Rob and I resigned, leaving Paul as the FSTA President. I was a board member for 12 years, 5 as President, so I have served my time.

This league is Charlie Wiegert's baby and he runs it. I doubt that they will ever go to 15 teams; instead we should go down to 12. But the suggestion is a good one if we ever did expand this contest to 15 teams. Thanks.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:08 am

As for our team, I don't think it's sexy but hopefully it stays competitive. I think our top four starters can compile 800+ Ks if they stay healthy and our infield is solid with Encarnacion-Zobrist-Boegarts-Bryant-Beltre. We have a lot of players who have multi-position eligibility, which gives us a lot of flexibility. We obviously need Ottavino to hold off Greg Holland now for the closer's spot, but otherwise we like our staff. Sluggers like Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli really fell in this draft and hopefully our BA is strong enough to compensate for these two sluggers.

Jim Bowden didn't like our Peraza pick as he thinks Phillips stays in Cincinnati. If that's the case then Peraza plays a utility role throughout the season. We needed the speed and probably jumped him a round or two to get 20+ stolen bases. We'll see who is right there.

The season is a long ways away, but it was fun to draft this early and to dive into the player pool. I think we did okay. Time will tell.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:39 am

I really liked yours and Tom's team (which may in and of itself be the kiss of death). The 13-team format allowed you a solid bench and you took advantage of it (really liked the Andriese pick and the Montgomery one as well until the Anderson signing).

Peraza has been one of the toughest guys for me to value (350-375 AB as the supersub, or 500-525 as a starter). His presence and probable role actually brings the risk (i.e. loss of AB) up for several Cincinnati players. He (and Perez) will be good for your team, but turn to gold if they get 500+ AB.

Like the pitching staff, but you guys are a little higher on Moore than I am. Holland landing in Colorado certainly sucks for your team in terms of added risk.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:46 am

The major topic of conversation at this year's Trade Conference was all of these state-by-state DFS laws. I don't think the states realize this but they are going to kill our industry if they don't watch out. I'm all for consumer protection and I see the need for that in DFS, but these states have no clue about the difference between season-long and DFS and it's going to be tough for all of us season-long games to survive in this new environment.

If each state charges a $15,000-$25,000 licensing fee plus a percentage of net revenue something is going to have to give. At some point we're all going to have to pass those costs onto the consumers and every payout percentage is going to go down or an Events Fee tax is going to have to go up. Trying to take residents of only the states who tax participants may have sounded good early on, but pretty soon I think every state will do some type of money grab here. We'll all be paying large six figures in licensing fees before each season plus we'll be paying on net revenue per state resident. It's going to be a large figure once all of the states put these laws in place and not a one is differentiating between season-long and DFS.

I'm going to talk about this in a separate thread, but the barrier to entry for any new games operator is larger than at any time in our industry's history. I mean, how do you enter the season-long games space today when you need to get licensed in a dozen or more states and pay these large licensing fees out of the gate? It's not going to be easy.

I won't bog down this thread over this -- not when you can rip on our FSTA team -- but we're definitely going to talk about this going forward. The costs are going to be very high for every game operator and those who aren't in compliance in all of these states set themselves up for heavy penalties. It's a different game now.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:46 pm

One other note on the post above: Every state will be listing licensed companies and if game operators are running unlicensed games they will be exposed pretty easily and their games will be shut down. Consumers should be careful where they are playing because our industry will have to be active in policing ourselves. It's certainly not fair for us and other season-long game operators to pay hefty state fees and then have rogue game operators run slow drafts and salary cap games and other games unlicensed by any of these states. It's not right.

There certainly are unlicensed games out there right now and it's not going to end well for them or their paying customers. These states are going to be very pro-active. Do your research before jumping into risky ventures because the rules have changed within this space. Good luck all.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:36 am

It was interesting to take a second look at this draft one week later to see which players the industry veterans jumped on earlier than NFBC owners have been doing. Here's a look at a few players who had wide margins between their ADP and where they went in the FSTA Draft last week in Nashville:

Trea Turner - went 20th, ADP of 11. I was surprised to see the industry veterans laying off this young star.
Billy Hamilton - went 40th, ADP of 50
Aroldis Chapman - went 73rd , ADP of 46 (all closers went later in this draft)
Carlos Carrasco - went 76th, ADP of 57
David Dahl - went 80th, ADP of 88
Andrew Benintendi - went 119th, ADP of 134
Matt Harvey - went 123rd, ADP of 139
Wade Davis - went 132nd, ADP of 87
Eric Thames - went 161st, ADP of 209
Nomar Mazara - went 183rd, ADP of 199
Hunter Renfroe - went 201st, ADP of 236th
Manuel Margot - went 218th, ADP of 256
Travis Janikowski - went 265th, ADP of 284 (all three San Diego outfielders went earlier than expected)

Other than the closers going later than in the NFBC this draft stayed pretty true to the ADPs. You can hold off on closers in a 13-team league, but it's obviously tougher to do in a 15-team league. The top rookies were jumped a little here, but no more than a round.
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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Yah Mule » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:09 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:It was interesting to take a second look at this draft one week later to see which players the industry veterans jumped on earlier than NFBC owners have been doing. Here's a look at a few players who had wide margins between their ADP and where they went in the FSTA Draft last week in Nashville:

Trea Turner - went 20th, ADP of 11. I was surprised to see the industry veterans laying off this young star.
Billy Hamilton - went 40th, ADP of 50
Aroldis Chapman - went 73rd , ADP of 46 (all closers went later in this draft)
Carlos Carrasco - went 76th, ADP of 57
David Dahl - went 80th, ADP of 88
Andrew Benintendi - went 119th, ADP of 134
Matt Harvey - went 123rd, ADP of 139
Wade Davis - went 132nd, ADP of 87
Eric Thames - went 161st, ADP of 209
Nomar Mazara - went 183rd, ADP of 199
Hunter Renfroe - went 201st, ADP of 236th
Manuel Margot - went 218th, ADP of 256
Travis Janikowski - went 265th, ADP of 284 (all three San Diego outfielders went earlier than expected)

Other than the closers going later than in the NFBC this draft stayed pretty true to the ADPs. You can hold off on closers in a 13-team league, but it's obviously tougher to do in a 15-team league. The top rookies were jumped a little here, but no more than a round.
I love David Dahl's skill set, park and lineup, but that ADP is pretty high. The year before his breakout season, AJ Pollock (who I think is a pretty good comp) had an ADP of 160. Now, this number rose steadily during draft season and he was going in round six when the sharps were weighing in @ the Main Events.

Everybody liked Pollock, but they were scared by his injury history. Well, David Dahl has had his share of injuries as well.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ym ... =news_milb

Anyway, not trying to scare anyone off Dahl as I think he's going to have a great season, but I was actually surprised to see how much higher he's going than what I consider to be a similarly talented player a couple years ago. For that matter, I'm a little surprised Pollock is going as high as he is after reaffirming his tendency to get hurt last year.

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Re: FSTA Draft tonight On SiriusXM 210/87

Post by Tom Kessenich » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:17 pm

Jim Bowden said before the draft whoever took him was going to win the league title. He was talking up Dahl big-time. Once that happened in the room it was just a matter of time before someone jumped him. He wasn't going to fall after that. Not saying everyone was buying in completely to what Bowden was saying; just that his name was all over the room at that point so he wasn't going to slide.
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