Hey guys, just posted this Saves hypothesis on my YouTube channel in preparation for the 2017 NFBC season. Did it this way because I hate typing, I love broadcasting and it's mid February so I'm bored as all hell. I'll continue short videos like this all offseason on my channel and hopefully into the season. Screw Saves 2017, you agree?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c_rMm7nchOQ
Screw Saves
Re: Screw Saves
1. I liked the candid video and cursing
2. I hate saves too
3. I will take a closer, when no other players (hitter/SP) make sense
2. I hate saves too
3. I will take a closer, when no other players (hitter/SP) make sense
Re: Screw Saves
There's a player in the NFBC who has had consecutive top 10 and top 20 finishes in the Main Event by punting saves and the benefits are compelling. First, not only do you say goodbye to the volatility of closers entirely, but the draft picks or auction money spent rostering them could be used taking chances on possible breakout hitters or pitchers and this frees up your FAAB as well. You're virtually guaranteed to pick up some points in wins and K's by punting saves, so the 14 points you've chosen not to compete for are mitigated somewhat, although more innings equals more possibly negative exposure for your ratios and your best rate guys see their contributions washed out a bit.
I've never punted any category on draft day, but think it can be a logical strategy as the season plays out. I won a league punting homers and RBI once when it became obvious I wasn't going to catch up in any meaningful way. I saw someone punt both saves and steals on draft day and win a league.
As more teams try what Cleveland did (which a lot of people outside of MLB have preached for years) we'll see some effects on our game. On one hand, you would think it would make the truly elite guys more valuable. Not sure if that's true, but ADP shows people believe it because Chapman and Jansen are coming off the board early in round four. Personally, my favorite drafts are when some guy takes Chapman early in round three and then another 35 players go before someone takes Kenley. Upper echelon closers are even more highly valued in auctions. I haven't seen Chapman or Jansen go for less than 20. I think 28 for Chapman was the peak.
If more people try to wait and select from the Kelley tier of closers, those guys will eventually see their ADP rise a bit as well. At the same time, some of the second and third tier closers should drop a bit.
I find myself waiting and hoping to find undervalued closers late, especially in leagues with FAAB. But I tend to be a guy who places a higher priority than most on ratios and a guy Edwin Diaz or Oh does make an impact there.
I've never punted any category on draft day, but think it can be a logical strategy as the season plays out. I won a league punting homers and RBI once when it became obvious I wasn't going to catch up in any meaningful way. I saw someone punt both saves and steals on draft day and win a league.
As more teams try what Cleveland did (which a lot of people outside of MLB have preached for years) we'll see some effects on our game. On one hand, you would think it would make the truly elite guys more valuable. Not sure if that's true, but ADP shows people believe it because Chapman and Jansen are coming off the board early in round four. Personally, my favorite drafts are when some guy takes Chapman early in round three and then another 35 players go before someone takes Kenley. Upper echelon closers are even more highly valued in auctions. I haven't seen Chapman or Jansen go for less than 20. I think 28 for Chapman was the peak.
If more people try to wait and select from the Kelley tier of closers, those guys will eventually see their ADP rise a bit as well. At the same time, some of the second and third tier closers should drop a bit.
I find myself waiting and hoping to find undervalued closers late, especially in leagues with FAAB. But I tend to be a guy who places a higher priority than most on ratios and a guy Edwin Diaz or Oh does make an impact there.
- Greg Ambrosius
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Re: Screw Saves
Baseball is completely missing the point: We don't want faster games, we just want more action in these games. Three hours of watching walks and strikeouts is boring. Three hours of watching solid hits and great defensive plays is heaven, especially with green grass and sunshine in most places.
Major League Baseball can easily solve this by raising the strike zone by two inches. You will see the ball in play much more often and a much better game. We don't need gimmicks to decide wins or losses and we don't need to worry about the length of games. Heck, NFL fans watch for 3 1/2 hours to see 11 minutes of action. If the action is good, people will gladly sit for 3 hours or more. Right now the game isn't good and it needs the ball in play more often.
And yes, this is the dumbest rule I've ever heard of.
Major League Baseball can easily solve this by raising the strike zone by two inches. You will see the ball in play much more often and a much better game. We don't need gimmicks to decide wins or losses and we don't need to worry about the length of games. Heck, NFL fans watch for 3 1/2 hours to see 11 minutes of action. If the action is good, people will gladly sit for 3 hours or more. Right now the game isn't good and it needs the ball in play more often.
And yes, this is the dumbest rule I've ever heard of.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Re: Screw Saves
Will be interesting to see what happens in mixed LABR regarding saves tonight. I wonder if they will reach as high as most people have been
Re: Screw Saves
Chapman and Jansen both went for 26 in last night's auction, but Oh @ 18, was the next most expensive. Outside of the top two, closer prices were slightly down last night. Although, as I speculated in my other post, some guys without clearly defined roles like Iglesias (10), Bedrosian (8) and Neris (5) went for more than they have in most other auctions.