Todd Zola Will Chat Today At 2 PM EST

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:07 am

We're happy to welcome Todd Zola from fantasybaseball.com to be our special industry guest chatter today. Todd will be here for an hour starting at 2 p.m. ET so bring your questions and let's make him work a little today.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:44 am

Todd,

Are you in any way concerned that your co- partner for the ultimate did not know who the manager of the D Rays last year?

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:52 am

Todd. With the talk about average draft positions being debated what side do you come down on when incorporating it into your draft preparations? Does it affect your rankings for your particular draft or is it usually thrown out the window when the draft starts as players get picked sooner of later than their preceived ADP? For me I think the ADP is great for preparing your rankings but when a draft starts each one has their own personality on where players are drafted and I go from there. Thanks in advance.

Top Dawg · Post by **Top Dawg** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:17 am

Todd - I've seen many pitching strategies attempted from punting saves to drafting no starters at all. I know the increase in minimum innings required may alter that strategy a bit, but I'm still wondering what strategy do you see working best in this format?

Do you grab an early round stud pitcher? More than one? Do you not water down thier stats by starting more relief/set-up guys instead of later round "starters"?

Thanks in advance,

Pete

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:27 am

Todd, sorry but I am going to miss the blog (damn work).

I do have one question...do you see any useful correlation between auction dollar values and potential draft selection? Do you use dollar values as part of your draft prep?

Bruce in FL · Post by **Bruce in FL** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:32 am

Todd, some strategy I have heard (not mine of course in case anyone is reading this) is to get a stud pitcher with K's and W's in round 3 or 4, and a stud closer in round 5 or 6, then get as many power bats that will allow, and throw in speed that reamains (if not addressed yet). Then address the saves with a closer in rounds 11-13 ish, and maybe a sleeper closer or backup closer later than that even, but draft them somewhere close to where their ADP would be, and not reach for them. What are your thoughts? Thanks. Bruce

[ February 28, 2007, 10:33 AM: Message edited by: Bruce in FL ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:42 am

At what picks do you start entertaining the thought of drafting Pierre and Figgins- at what pick do they become a true bargain.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:57 am

Todd,

I seem to be in the minority here, but I think SB's are overvalued. I see some late round pick ups that will provide 25-35 SB's if not more. Duffy is moving up the draft boards.

How much more valuable is Figgins in rd 3 with about 45 steals than say someone like Kenny Loften in rd 15 with 25 steals. I know it's relative to who you get in place of these people in the rounds, but I don't see as much upside for Figgins. Lower avg. To me, his benefit was the position flexibility he had and obviously less injury rsik.

Who are some late round SB bargains?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:56 am

Do you think dropping the min. games played from 20 to 10 at a position the previous year to qualify would...

A) Create a more complex and interesting draft, boosting the values of the utility types.

B) Overvalue some players too much who may have been injury replacements and such.

~Lance

Tampa Munchers · Post by **Tampa Munchers** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:06 am

If you were a gambling man.....

How many more wins, if any, would you expect the Yankees to achieve over the Indians this year.

A bit off topic, but im still interested to gather your thoughts on this

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:11 am

Todd,

I heard you at lunch on XM today. You seem to be the only person agreeing with me. While I think Utley is a great player, IMO, he is not a first round pick.

I heard you say the same thing (Jeff Erickson sounded surprised.) I think he is a mid-late 2nd round pick, which still is where great players are. I have taken a beating for it.

Can you explain where you have Utley ranked and why? I think picking Utley based on position scarcity is a mistake in rd 1, and will set your team a little behind.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:26 am

Todd, thanks for doing this AND providing some columns to generate some nice discussion.

Wondering if you can give the higher ceiling for these players, for this season and possibly why??

Harang vs. Kazmir

Ryan vs. Wagner

Kinsler vs. Barfield

&

N.Cruz vs. Sledge

Thanks in advance.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:56 am

OK gang, I apologize in advance for the ensuing typos. I'll start knocking off what has been already asked and hopefully I'll catch up soon enough....

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:00 am

Are you in any way concerned that your co- partner for the ultimate did not know who the manager of the D Rays last year? Not unless managers have been added as a category.

With the talk about average draft positions being debated what side do you come down on when incorporating it into your draft preparations? Does it affect your rankings for your particular draft or is it usually thrown out the window when the draft starts as players get picked sooner of later than their preceived ADP? For me I think the ADP is great for preparing your rankings but when a draft starts each one has their own personality on where players are drafted and I go from there. Thanks in advance.

ADPs are a tool, not a be all end all. I think the biggest mistake people make is targeting ONE particular player based on the ADP. I prefer to look for tiers and say "OK, if I wait on a 2B, I should be able to get one of this group in the 16th" -- something like that.

Also - throw pitching ADPs out the window. Instead of saying "I won't draft a pitcher until the 4th round - or 7th round", whatever, think in terms of "I'll start taking pitchers once 20 or 35 are off the board" regardless of the round.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:05 am

I've seen many pitching strategies attempted from punting saves to drafting no starters at all. I know the increase in minimum innings required may alter that strategy a bit, but I'm still wondering what strategy do you see working best in this format?

Do you grab an early round stud pitcher? More than one? Do you not water down thier stats by starting more relief/set-up guys instead of later round "starters"?

Thanks in advance,

Pete

Small sample, but at least thus far, if you want to have your picture taken holding a check for 100 large, balance is the key -- across the board, hitting and pitching. You can definitely win your league with a gimic strategy, but thus far, no one has challenged for the top prizes doing such.

As far as when to take a pitcher, you draft to your strength. If you are really good at IDing diamonds in the rough, then bully the hitting early and rely on your ability to build a strong staff with later picks. If you are not as comfortable waiting, then take your anchor, but realize you will need to make up what amounts to a standings place across all the hitting cats by getting profit from a late round hitter as SOMEONE will draft a pitcher late that matches your 3rd rounder.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:08 am

I do have one question...do you see any useful correlation between auction dollar values and potential draft selection? Do you use dollar values as part of your draft prep? Much like ADP, dollar values, as if the main event were a 15-team auction are definitely one of my tools. I'll also do a categorical valuation like alot of you do, calculating how much a particular player helps you reach a target. Then it comes down to balancing hitting versus pitching, power versus speed, starting pitchers versus closers all the while paying attention to positions so you can draft the best available players at the end ---

Sounds easy, doesn't it?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:12 am

some strategy I have heard (not mine of course in case anyone is reading this) is to get a stud pitcher with K's and W's in round 3 or 4, and a stud closer in round 5 or 6, then get as many power bats that will allow, and throw in speed that reamains (if not addressed yet). Then address the saves with a closer in rounds 11-13 ish, and maybe a sleeper closer or backup closer later than that even, but draft them somewhere close to where their ADP would be, and not reach for them. What are your thoughts? Thanks. Bruce

Touched on this earlier -- nothing wrong with taking a pitcher early, just realize you will be a little behind the pack in HR/RBI so you will need to get profit somehow from a later pick.

I'm guessing I will start to consider pitching after 12-15 guys have been drafted, unless one of my top 8 or so slides.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:17 am

Todd,

how would you rank these 2nd yr pitchers as draftable by you ?

Hamels / Verlander / Weaver / Hill / Papelbon ?

And these injury risks ?

Sheets / Harden / Unit / Patterson ?

Thanks ..

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:17 am

At what picks do you start entertaining the thought of drafting Pierre and Figgins- at what pick do they become a true bargain. This is dictated by what happens in the first 3 rounds. I am a little wary of Figgins in general, but I assume he was more an example of a speed guy than comments on a specific player.

I would much prefer getting a middle infielder early to build my steals total. But if that doesn't happen, I just don't know that I would grab Pierre when there are so many other available power hitters, especially in the outfield. I would rather wait and take Willy Tavarez.

That said, Pierre is more than a 1-trick pony, his near .300 average over 650 or so AB is a real BA buffer, and he scores runs.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:23 am

I seem to be in the minority here, but I think SB's are overvalued. I see some late round pick ups that will provide 25-35 SB's if not more. Duffy is moving up the draft boards.

How much more valuable is Figgins in rd 3 with about 45 steals than say someone like Kenny Loften in rd 15 with 25 steals. I know it's relative to who you get in place of these people in the rounds, but I don't see as much upside for Figgins. Lower avg. To me, his benefit was the position flexibility he had and obviously less injury rsik.

Who are some late round SB bargains?

How far we have come now thinking steals are overvalued is the minority. I've been accused of overvaluing them for years -- mathematically, they are what they are, a category where 10% of the players account for over 50% of the value -- or thereabouts. So tome it is more a strategic question than a valuation question. I want steals from my MI, or else I will look late. I already mentioned Tavarez, Alex Sanchez is a possibility, Duffy has been mentioned. I have a list of potential names, I'll find it later and pop back with some more names.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:26 am

Todd im still trying to fiqure out where i want to draft this year.Ive been 1st ,4th , 10, and last night 15.I really didnt like the long wait after my picks.The toughest round was the end of the 3rd and beginning of the 4th.If a Figgins or a Pieere dont make it to you , the next twenty guys have the same value.Now i took Nathan withthe last pick in the 3rd round which is about right, but then thats when ther just wasnt a hitter there to go with.The hitters i liked where Delgado and Hall but ive seen them both slip to the 5th round.I really didnt want to go with a starter either , so it was a tough choice.

Since im a firm believer of getting two closers i decided to go with KROD too.So i got the two best closers in the game and got the saves out of the way.When i came up again with my 5th and 6th picks i was able to grab SHEFF and Zimmerman , two guys that should have been off the board.Just to give you a better idea of my start, my 1st pick at 15 was Teixeira and my 2nd pick at 16 was VLAD.

MY Question is , do you think this was crazy and what would you have done in that spot.

Question 2 , have you fiqured out yet where you would like too draft. thanks EDDIE G

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:27 am

Do you think dropping the min. games played from 20 to 10 at a position the previous year to qualify would...

A) Create a more complex and interesting draft, boosting the values of the utility types.

B) Overvalue some players too much who may have been injury replacements and such.

A. No - I think it would artificially strengthen weaker pools and as a value guy, I want ranking between positions to be as difficult as possible.

B. Not sure it is overvalue, but definitely make a multi-position OFer rosterable if the secondary position is 2B or SS.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:30 am

If you were a gambling man.....

How many more wins, if any, would you expect the Yankees to achieve over the Indians this year.

A bit off topic, but im still interested to gather your thoughts on this I'm not a gambling man but as a baseball fan, if you gave me Cleveland and 10 wins, I'd probably take Cleveland.

But I'M NOT A GAMBLING MAN SO PLEASE, unless the bet is nothing more than an adult beverage, I'm not going there.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:35 am

Can you explain where you have Utley ranked and why? I think picking Utley based on position scarcity is a mistake in rd 1, and will set your team a little behind. I have Utley ranked about #20 when you factor in his position.

I think two things are happening.

A. There are some VERY optimistic projections out there

B. Since the drop off is SO HUGE, many think they will gain a big advantage by rostering the clear cut best 2B.

With respect to A, don't get me wrong, Utley is a wonderful player, but historically, players that hit at his level regress the following year -- even if they are in his age bracket. Plus as Jeff mentioned, what really makes him valuable is the high teens steals. Drop that by 5 or 10 and his value takes a bit of a nosedive.

With regards to B, I hate to let a nice anecdotal argument get in the way of the numbers, and my numbers say Utley is about #20.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:43 am

Harang vs. Kazmir

Ryan vs. Wagner

Kinsler vs. Barfield

&

N.Cruz vs. Sledge

Kazmir higher ceiling, better stuff, more of a pitchers park. Harang fly ball pitcher in a HR park. Harang safer, Kazmir medium risk, high reward type. Both the level of guys I will look to make up my pitching staff.

Ryan vs Wagner -- I don't think closers of this ilk are made for this type of analysis -- both have wonderful skill sets, it will come down to health and opportunity. My rule of thumb is to qssume 35-40 saves from a front-line guy and anything else is gravy. Which is odd because I really don't like gravy. Maybe everything else is jimmies-laden whipped cream.

Kinsler higher ceiling based on park, though if Barfield runs, his ceiling would then be higher. Both were undervalued early on, but Kinsler's ADP is starting to rise. Since I'm not getting Utley

I'll take either of these guys.

Cruz has more competition but is in a better park. If Sledge is able to get on at a decent clip, he'll be a nice late round source of value.