Drafting VALUE=Less Risk

[Bjs2025]

Today's video topic:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zBRfQE_X_F0

[DOUGHBOYS]

Brian, I like the video, but you're full of shit.
Let me explain.
First, you use the word 'value' as a valley girl uses the word 'like'. It is like (on purpose) you watched 100 fantasy podcasts before making this video.
Value is everybody's own evaluations. You treat the word as if everybody has the same system and if everybody just follows the Yellow Brick Road, they will find the Wizard.
In your mind, the Yellow Brick Road being master projections and the Wizard, winning. BAH!
THEY ARE NO MORE RIGHT THAN YOU, OR I, OR ALL THE OTHER DRAFTERS IN THE NFBC.
They will be wrong a lot. As we are.

You speak of your great bench, then shrug your shoulders and say, "I'll put in Jose Iglesias for Prado".
The only reason Iglesias is close to replacement value for Prado is because both are so far down draft lists!
Is that 'value'?
You were on the right track in that drafters will lose players like Schwarber and Prince Fielder.
You were right in saying that obstacles like losing a player for the year can be overcome.
They can.
Then lost me in saying that all we have to do is draft 'value'.

Define 'value' and what it means to you.
Is it taking a player that has an adp or projected 'value of $12 when there are only $10 players left besides him?
Is it taking a player without much injury history?
Is it a player high on projectioned lists?
A player high on your own lists?
Is it drafting a player and automatically claiming more 'value' because we drafted him? (We do that, you know)
The word 'value' is deceitful. It's a cover all word. One with no definition in our hobby any longer.

One last thing, you fall into the same trap that all drafters fall into.
The love of their own team.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
You should love your team. You are the one that drafted it!
You won't admit this now because they are on your team and have 'value', but you will most likely end up dropping Iglesias, Span, and Reddick for shinier players.
It's what we do.
On our roster, they have 'value', but when looking at the availability of others and dropping them, we'll say, "Ah, they were just my bench players anyway."
There is a reason Iglesias, Span, and Reddick are on your bench. It's not that they are 'value'. It is that other drafters passed on them and you drafted them.
It doesn't make other drafters dumb. It doesn't make you smart. They are bench players like Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman will be bench players on another team. And likely, that owner, too, will say that he has 'value' on his bench.
Truth of the matter is that most of us will replace around 15 of the 30 players drafted.
You will too.
It's all part of the process.
The minute the season starts, your projections, my projections, and the smartest projections in the world don't mean shit.
The minute the season starts, reality talks and the bullshit projections walk.
The minute the season starts, blah blah value is replaced by real value.
And THAT will be the only value we all agree upon.

[rkulaski]

Doughy,
I think at least part of what you are trying to say is....
You and Brian will have the same inscriptions on your tombstones

[DOUGHBOYS]

Doughy,
I think at least part of what you are trying to say is....
You and Brian will have the same inscriptions on your tombstones

[TParsons]

I've been waiting for this, Dan. Each time I see RotoBro go on a tangent about value, or him winning the league projections, I imagine you smashing a bag of cool ranch Doritos. You're the best! Good luck this season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've been waiting for this, Dan. Each time I see RotoBro go on a tangent about value, or him winning the league projections, I imagine you smashing a bag of cool ranch Doritos. You're the best! Good luck this season.

You know me too well, Ty

Good luck to you as well.
You are easy to root for and in my opinion, one of the best drafters on this site.
Have a great season.

[Bjs2025]

Brian, I like the video, but you're full of shit.
Let me explain.
First, you use the word 'value' as a valley girl uses the word 'like'. It is like (on purpose) you watched 100 fantasy podcasts before making this video.
Value is everybody's own evaluations. You treat the word as if everybody has the same system and if everybody just follows the Yellow Brick Road, they will find the Wizard.
In your mind, the Yellow Brick Road being master projections and the Wizard, winning. BAH!
THEY ARE NO MORE RIGHT THAN YOU, OR I, OR ALL THE OTHER DRAFTERS IN THE NFBC.
They will be wrong a lot. As we are.

You speak of your great bench, then shrug your shoulders and say, "I'll put in Jose Iglesias for Prado".
The only reason Iglesias is close to replacement value for Prado is because both are so far down draft lists!
Is that 'value'?
You were on the right track in that drafters will lose players like Schwarber and Prince Fielder.
You were right in saying that obstacles like losing a player for the year can be overcome.
They can.
Then lost me in saying that all we have to do is draft 'value'.

Define 'value' and what it means to you.
Is it taking a player that has an adp or projected 'value of $12 when there are only $10 players left besides him?
Is it taking a player without much injury history?
Is it a player high on projectioned lists?
A player high on your own lists?
Is it drafting a player and automatically claiming more 'value' because we drafted him? (We do that, you know)
The word 'value' is deceitful. It's a cover all word. One with no definition in our hobby any longer.

One last thing, you fall into the same trap that all drafters fall into.
The love of their own team.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
You should love your team. You are the one that drafted it!
You won't admit this now because they are on your team and have 'value', but you will most likely end up dropping Iglesias, Span, and Reddick for shinier players.
It's what we do.
On our roster, they have 'value', but when looking at the availability of others and dropping them, we'll say, "Ah, they were just my bench players anyway."
There is a reason Iglesias, Span, and Reddick are on your bench. It's not that they are 'value'. It is that other drafters passed on them and you drafted them.
It doesn't make other drafters dumb. It doesn't make you smart. They are bench players like Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman will be bench players on another team. And likely, that owner, too, will say that he has 'value' on his bench.
Truth of the matter is that most of us will replace around 15 of the 30 players drafted.
You will too.
It's all part of the process.
The minute the season starts, your projections, my projections, and the smartest projections in the world don't mean shit.
The minute the season starts, reality talks and the bullshit projections walk.
The minute the season starts, blah blah value is replaced by real value.
And THAT will be the only value we all agree upon.

What's your alternative? What should be done instead? Id rather have intelligent realistic projections to go off of than shrug my shoulders at the "mystery" of fantasy baseball and be "just like the other players."

[Bjs2025]

Also you define value by having a list of credible projection systems with realistic projections that 60-75% of which come true, attach that to a value formula based on your league setting and acquire the most dollars possible.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Every player is 'like the other players'.
Nobody stands out.
Who is the worst fantasy drafter you know?
An answer doesn't come very quickly. We don't care about bad drafters.
Who is one of the best fantasy drafters you know?
Hopefully, you would place yourself in this group. If not, then you shouldn't be here.
We all should.
And if you are, indeed one of the best, then why do you use others projections?
In using others projections to classify your draft, you are admitting that you are NOT one of the best drafters.

Use others knowledge, opinions, and even projections as part of your own study. Not as gospel.
Weed out the noise from the things that really matter.
You NEVER EVER win a draft before the season begins as you implied in a previous video.
Even in the draft 'you won', you made this point by finishing fourth.
There are far too many things that happen during the season.
Starting one pitcher over another in week 16 of your season may become far more important than who you selected in the 16th round of a draft.

You make drafting seem very easy.
It is not.
Non-fantasy players think the same thing.
I know you are better than that.
Even the best players know that drafting is never, ever easy.
Roster construction, following a strategy while also playing to each individual draft, pinpointing players, and prioritizing what is of more importance each round of a draft is hard.
Throwing the 'value' word around is easy.
Turn on any podcast or your videos and you can hear the word 100 times.
It's meaningless.
We already know that Kris Bryant has more 'value' than Christian Yelich who has more 'value' than Adam Eaton who has more 'value' than....
That's easy.
Anybody can do that.
What's hard is being in the ninth round of a draft, one pick away, and that drafter takes the player that you have talked yourself into being a key player for your team. You have 45 seconds. Go.
And nobody, nobody in the world is going to help at that moment.
It's just you and a ticking clock.
That, that is hard.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Also you define value by having a list of credible projection systems with realistic projections that 60-75% of which come true, attach that to a value formula based on your league setting and acquire the most dollars possible.

Not only do I disagree with your definition, I doubt that you use that as a guide for your own use of the word.
You said the word over and over again in your video.
Do you think about the word 'value' meaning the same thing each time using the word in your video?
Yeah, right.

Edit-
'Credible projection systems with realistic projections'?
Do you mean 'stuck in the middle projections?
Anybody can do those in their sleep. Anybody.

One more edit- You used the word 'value' in helping to form a definition for the word 'value'.
Case closed.

[Gekko]

interesting that you touted Cervelli as a value play. i know there are other people that are in that camp. my take is...if an owner winds up with Cervelli, they have done something wrong in their draft and are likely roadkill.

as for you drafting prado, your video response was "who gives a shit"?

either you didn't do your homework on prado prior to selecting him or you think holding a hurt guy who was a 25+ round guy (EVEN WHEN HE'S HEALTHY) is a good play. i guarantee that's not in my playbook. if it's in yours, good luck

[Chest Rockwell]

Every player is 'like the other players'.
Nobody stands out.
Who is the worst fantasy drafter you know?
An answer doesn't come very quickly. We don't care about bad drafters.
Who is one of the best fantasy drafters you know?
Hopefully, you would place yourself in this group. If not, then you shouldn't be here.
We all should.
And if you are, indeed one of the best, then why do you use others projections?
In using others projections to classify your draft, you are admitting that you are NOT one of the best drafters.

Use others knowledge, opinions, and even projections as part of your own study. Not as gospel.
Weed out the noise from the things that really matter.
You NEVER EVER win a draft before the season begins as you implied in a previous video.
Even in the draft 'you won', you made this point by finishing fourth.
There are far too many things that happen during the season.
Starting one pitcher over another in week 16 of your season may become far more important than who you selected in the 16th round of a draft.

You make drafting seem very easy.
It is not.
Non-fantasy players think the same thing.
I know you are better than that.
Even the best players know that drafting is never, ever easy.
Roster construction, following a strategy while also playing to each individual draft, pinpointing players, and prioritizing what is of more importance each round of a draft is hard.
Throwing the 'value' word around is easy.
Turn on any podcast or your videos and you can hear the word 100 times.
It's meaningless.
We already know that Kris Bryant has more 'value' than Christian Yelich who has more 'value' than Adam Eaton who has more 'value' than....
That's easy.
Anybody can do that.
What's hard is being in the ninth round of a draft, one pick away, and that drafter takes the player that you have talked yourself into being a key player for your team. You have 45 seconds. Go.
And nobody, nobody in the world is going to help at that moment.
It's just you and a ticking clock.
That, that is hard.

Drop the mic moment.

Rotobro two ears one mouth for a reason. Use those ears on this post.

Consider me a closet rotobro fan. One thing I notice is the best players in this draft will kick themselves for the most minor decisions in drafts that in hindsight could/should have been done differently. I have yet to see a player in this contest who is that "proud" of their draft performance do well.I think we all remember how after every live draft John Zaleski's teams were perfect and how did he do. I know these satellite leagues could be easier but I got a reminder in the NYC auction Friday just how good the competition is. I cannot recognize a single grand bargain any player got all day because there were 14 other people making sure he did not. Yet this guy thinks his roster is riddled with them from top to bottom.

[Bjs2025]

I also think there is a stark difference between what we're all talking about here. What I do is design a system to win across many leagues every year. I don't enjoy putting all eggs into one team basket and detailing the ups and downs of that team throughout the season. I play to win money and acknowledge I will not win every league. It seems like when people combat things I say they don't understand this concept. I am not trying to get lucky and win an overall prize pool where every draft decision is "really difficult" I don't usually have an issue in any draft spot knowing who I am going to take. I enjoy mitigating risk by being in many leagues and winning more money than I put in every year. I just don't think people like to play the way I do and that's fine for them.

[Sebadiah23]

Rotoboy, I liked your point- you just needed a Todd Zola to properly name it and articulate it.

My attempt- say in round 25 you have an opportunity to take a player who has the most overall value left in the draft, but doesn't fit the team that you have drafted so far, and maybe never will. However, given injuries and inherent uncertainty of predictions (players changing roles, not running anymore), said player may in fact save your ass a month down the road, for unknown reasons, and the benefit from the chance of that may outweigh the benefit of selecting an inferior player who has a more tangible and immediate role in your starting lineup. Thanks for sharing.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I enjoy mitigating risk by being in many leagues and winning more money than I put in every year. I just don't think people like to play the way I do and that's fine for them.

I believe you are wrong.
I think that is the way most people play.
And above all, every drafter in the NFBC wants to win more money than they put in.

[Bjs2025]

Rotoboy, I liked your point- you just needed a Todd Zola to properly name it and articulate it.

My attempt- say in round 25 you have an opportunity to take a player who has the most overall value left in the draft, but doesn't fit the team that you have drafted so far, and maybe never will. However, given injuries and inherent uncertainty of predictions (players changing roles, not running anymore), said player may in fact save your ass a month down the road, for unknown reasons, and the benefit from the chance of that may outweigh the benefit of selecting an inferior player who has a more tangible and immediate role in your starting lineup. Thanks for sharing.

Really well said. I had Martin Prado valued at $5 in a 15 mixer, I would still take him if I knew he'd miss a month because of his normal production and replacement level at 3B if I could afford to do so. I'd rather do that than leave him in the FA and take Trevor Plouffe for example.

[knuckleheads]

Not sure what makes Doughboys crazier, Joey Votto taking walks or Rotoboy saying value...

I'm new to the Rotoboy phenomenon, but I have to say I can't look away. He puts A LOT out there, but I have to give him props, it's pretty tough to talk into the camera for 5-7 minutes at a shot without a script.

For those who haven't watch it, his NFBC Challenge 2017 is a must watch. Kind of reminds me of the Cash Me Ouside Girl.

Brian did you ever join a ME League?

[Bjs2025]

Not sure what makes Doughboys crazier, Joey Votto taking walks or Rotoboy saying value...

I'm new to the Rotoboy phenomenon, but I have to say I can't look away. He puts A LOT out there, but I have to give him props, it's pretty tough to talk into the camera for 5-7 minutes at a shot without a script.

For those who haven't watch it, his NFBC Challenge 2017 is a must watch. Kind of reminds me of the Cash Me Ouside Girl.

Brian did you ever join a ME League?

thanks for the feedback man, honor to be compared to Cash Me Outside girl...better that than Dr. Phil. Didnt join ME, I don't like to explain why here though because it looks like I'm talking down the contest and I do love the NFBC, i just don't like overall prize pools.

[CC's Desperados]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

[Gekko]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

ya boy!!! classic!!!

[knuckleheads]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

Brilliant. 10/10

[Chest Rockwell]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

Love it

[DOUGHBOYS]

Great stuff, Shawn!

[Baseball Furies]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

Where are you staying? Looks like they put you up in a jail cell.

[Baseball Furies]

All I can say to whoever is reading this, I am getting painfully close to coming out of retirement from my radio days and starting my own show if I have to continue to endure these videos!