Drafting VALUE=Less Risk

[Bjs2025]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

Appreciate the response, no "excitement on Schwarber" though. Just catcher adjustment. Would've been Gary Sanchez or Lucroy this year.

[KJ Duke]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

ya boy!!! classic!!!

[CC's Desperados]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG0lxLU ... e=youtu.be

Appreciate the response, no "excitement on Schwarber" though. Just catcher adjustment. Would've been Gary Sanchez or Lucroy this year.

Just look at the player rater by Stats and tell me how many players offered better value than Posey and Lucroy in 2016. I don't agreed with their ratings, but I have my own and I'm sure KJ has the best . 68 batters had more value than both catchers plus 40 pitchers.

[bjoak]

Well, I haven't been around for a minute. Let me pipe in here to say that valuation is important to understand. I'd say 90% of drafters (at least) have no idea of what it means. A player's stats are not his value. His value is placed in a single number. Is a player who goes 58/6/90/.280/40 worth more than someone who goes 98/25/85/.275/0? Some people go around thinking they're experts when they don't even understand the *value* of what they're drafting. So, yes, our projections of players are subjective and equal to different levels of accuracy, but if you don't know what a home run is worth relative to a stolen base, well, you might have success, but you'd have a lot more if you did.

[bjoak]

Aaand in case you wonder, player A is worth a +88 points past the average player you'd need to win the overall Rotowire online championship and player B is worth -45. Not huge but notable, and if you're eyeballing and wondering, you didn't work hard enough yet.

[Bjs2025]

Aaand in case you wonder, player A is worth a +88 points past the average player you'd need to win the overall Rotowire online championship and player B is worth -45. Not huge but notable, and if you're eyeballing and wondering, you didn't work hard enough yet.

I honestly think you're spot on. There is no "sure fire" way to win a singular league but I do believe preparing like this will net you more overall wins than "eyeballing" which is what a lot of people seem to do that criticize value systems. Or change the word if you want "over replacement level systems" "projective value systems" etc....

[Bronx Yankees]

Here's my two cents:

1. Many refer to the "value" they think they drafted but, as Dan tries to explain, such "value" is meaningless compared to the real "value" that one receives when the games start.

2. Anyone who thinks they won a league immediately following a draft is delusional. In some instances you can lose a league at the draft table, but the best you realistically can hope for is that you like your team, feel like you executed your plan relatively well, and think you drafted a balanced team. Personally, I come out of most drafts fixated on the categories in which I think I'm weaker in than others. I've never "celebrated" anything following a draft because, at that point, I haven't won jack.

3. The one thing you know for sure about projections is that they will be wrong. On some players, they will come close; on others, they won't. Will your players meet or beat your projections? In March, no one knows. Everybody uses projections in drafts - some rely on specific numerical ones, while others know the player pool intimately and rely on more generalized expectations. Most people coming out of drafts probably like their teams better than those of many of their competitors. So what? You like the players you targeted and drafted, while others presumably like the players they targeted. You won't know who was less wrong until the games have been played.

4. I laugh to myself when people brag how they got a $20 player for $16. First, until the games are played, all you know is you spent $16 (or an X round pick) for a player and hope he earns you $20 or more. Second, reducing a player's value to a single numerical value only tells a part of the story. Here's one quick, extreme example: an owner drafting 14th somehow starts off with Trea Turner, Starling Marte, Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Dee Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Christian Yelich, and Gregory Polanco in the first eight rounds. You can attribute a high dollar value to each player. This hypothetical draft "beat" ADP wildly on most picks. Indeed, in isolation, Hamilton in the sixth round, Yelich in the seventh round and Polanco in the eight round appear to be extreme "values" as many use (or misuse) the word. Based on "reasonable projections" culled from many sources, this drafter probably has many more dollars in "value" than any other team through eight rounds. Yet, when I look at this team, I see dead money. The team likely has insurmountable hurdles to overcome in seven categories (HR, RBI and all five pitching categories). Reducing value to a single dollar figure ignores roster construction, which is huge. A better player easily could draft a team that is much worse versus ADP or projected dollar values and still smoke that hypothetical team. Third, along the same lines, a $6 player can provide a lot of "value" to one team and zero value to another. In my extreme example above, if that same owner grabs Rajai Davis in the 14th round, he likely would provide no value - or negative value - because that team already should have 15 points in SB wrapped up and Davis will provide below-average contributions in other hitting categories. On the other hand, a different team that is relatively strong in nine of the ten categories, but not SB, could benefit tremendously by Davis' skill set, assuming he lives up to projections.

5. All a good draft does is put you in a position to do well. In addition to the obvious examples of injuries, under-performance by some players and over-performance by other players, much of a team's success will depend upon how they do in FAAB and, also, their decisions to start and bench certain players. The importance of doing well in FAAB over the course of a long season cannot be overstated. I also don't think enough attention (credit/blame) is allocated to start/bench decisions. For example, every week owners will have to make decisions like whether to (i) start a left-handed hitter with a strong split versus righties as compared to lefties when his team is facing three lefties in a four-game series, (ii) start or sit your third-best starter on the road versus the Rockies or Red Sox, (iii) start your SP5 in a decent matchup or your SP9 in a two-start week versus weak-hitting teams, etc. All experienced players have stories of winning or losing leagues in the last week, or even last day (or last at bat) of the season. In each case, better start/bench decisions in April or May could have made a difference.

Mike

[blazer68]

great post

[Edwards Kings]

Brian, I like the video, but you're full of shit.

This is high praise, indeed, believe it or not. I would rather be razzed by this group than praised by many others.

Thanks for the video's (and yes, I disagree with much) but you have caused some good discussions on these boards which have been pretty dead.

[CC's Desperados]

Like the post Mike....too much writing to for me to do!

[bjoak]

Here is the problem with saying it is impossible to project correctly so don't project. It's a prevarication. If you play this game, you project. Otherwise, you're just throwing darts at a wall. If you describe a guy you draft as high speed, low power, medium average and then draft him, weren't you using past performance to describe future performance? That's called a projection. That you don't hang numbers on it doesn't make it less so. It has less utility in terms of putting it in a system that tells you what you really have, though.

Further, if you use that description, you just described Jose Reyes, Jose Peraza, and Jose Ramirez, three very different players. If you add more descriptors like age, line-up, position in the line-up, etc. you're just using the same factors as a projection system. No one has 86 RBIs written down and thinks the player is going to bullseye that. It's a way of saying, decent RBI guy, but now you have something you can put in a valuation system that tells you what a guy is worth. The one thing I've learned for sure in 15 years of this is that looking at five different categories and trying to let you're brain determine randomly what that is worth is a poor approach that yields incorrect conclusions.

[Yah Mule]

5. All a good draft does is put you in a position to do well. In addition to the obvious examples of injuries, under-performance by some players and over-performance by other players, much of a team's success will depend upon how they do in FAAB and, also, their decisions to start and bench certain players. The importance of doing well in FAAB over the course of a long season cannot be overstated. I also don't think enough attention (credit/blame) is allocated to start/bench decisions. For example, every week owners will have to make decisions like whether to (i) start a left-handed hitter with a strong split versus righties as compared to lefties when his team is facing three lefties in a four-game series, (ii) start or sit your third-best starter on the road versus the Rockies or Red Sox, (iii) start your SP5 in a decent matchup or your SP9 in a two-start week versus weak-hitting teams, etc. All experienced players have stories of winning or losing leagues in the last week, or even last day (or last at bat) of the season. In each case, better start/bench decisions in April or May could have made a difference.

Mike

Great post, Mike.

This last part is why I will always oppose changing pitchers mid week. I like the hard decisions we all have to make even if they can be agonizing in real time.

[Bjs2025]

Here is the problem with saying it is impossible to project correctly so don't project. It's a prevarication. If you play this game, you project. Otherwise, you're just throwing darts at a wall. If you describe a guy you draft as high speed, low power, medium average and then draft him, weren't you using past performance to describe future performance? That's called a projection. That you don't hang numbers on it doesn't make it less so. It has less utility in terms of putting it in a system that tells you what you really have, though.

Further, if you use that description, you just described Jose Reyes, Jose Peraza, and Jose Ramirez, three very different players. If you add more descriptors like age, line-up, position in the line-up, etc. you're just using the same factors as a projection system. No one has 86 RBIs written down and thinks the player is going to bullseye that. It's a way of saying, decent RBI guy, but now you have something you can put in a valuation system that tells you what a guy is worth. The one thing I've learned for sure in 15 years of this is that looking at five different categories and trying to let you're brain determine randomly what that is worth is a poor approach that yields incorrect conclusions.

My thoughts exactly. Everybody seems to have a problem with projections and "value" but no alternative is ever offered. The responses I hear are all shrugs as if the gods of baseball have already beaten us.

Off of this topic I made another video today I will be posting soon that I sincerely want everybody to reply to if interested.

[CC's Desperados]

5. All a good draft does is put you in a position to do well. In addition to the obvious examples of injuries, under-performance by some players and over-performance by other players, much of a team's success will depend upon how they do in FAAB and, also, their decisions to start and bench certain players. The importance of doing well in FAAB over the course of a long season cannot be overstated. I also don't think enough attention (credit/blame) is allocated to start/bench decisions. For example, every week owners will have to make decisions like whether to (i) start a left-handed hitter with a strong split versus righties as compared to lefties when his team is facing three lefties in a four-game series, (ii) start or sit your third-best starter on the road versus the Rockies or Red Sox, (iii) start your SP5 in a decent matchup or your SP9 in a two-start week versus weak-hitting teams, etc. All experienced players have stories of winning or losing leagues in the last week, or even last day (or last at bat) of the season. In each case, better start/bench decisions in April or May could have made a difference.

Mike

Great post, Mike.

This last part is why I will always oppose changing pitchers mid week. I like the hard decisions we all have to make even if they can be agonizing in real time.

Normally I don't like to post about changing pitching mid-week, but I'll add this. By having pitching changes twice a week, it rewards owners who have in edge in pitching depth when they have it. If you have four closers in April, you can gain an earlier edge in saves while not getting killed in wins and Ks. In addition, it rewards the teams with the best pitching staffs all year rather than turn September into a double start fest where teams off the pace can run down some wins and K points with no regard for ERA and WHIP.

[TParsons]

Normally I don't like to post about changing pitching mid-week, but I'll add this. By having pitching changes twice a week, it rewards owners who have in edge in pitching depth when they have it. If you have four closers in April, you can gain an earlier edge in saves while not getting killed in wins and Ks. In addition, it rewards the teams with the best pitching staffs all year rather than turn September into a double start fest where teams off the pace can run down some wins and K points with no regard for ERA and WHIP.

100% agree with this. I'm not a fan of midweek pitching changes based solely on time constraints, but I agree with your statement. The perfect storm of teams giving up and the increased player pool once rosters expand give those teams that didn't plan their pitching well a chance to go crazy in September for counting stats. This combined with the uncertainty in rotations & lineups during the final month really open a window to make up quite a few points. It's one of the few negatives in this game imo. I would love to just do away with the last 2-4 weeks of the season for contest purposes, but I'm the only person that I know of with that point of view.

Btw, I really enjoyed your team capsules at scout. Well done, and much appreciated!

[Bjs2025]

I'd ask everyone in this thread to watch today's video and reply if you can:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IMAWICbRvvc

[mbendar16]

Everyone uses projections for their teams, but it's the degree of reliance as the reason the the team will do well or not that differs. Everyone that takes Bryce Harper in the 1st round is Projecting he will be a lot closer to his MVP year than his 2016 season. That good harper season could be worth anywhere from 30 to 50 instead of an exact 37 predicted season. Whether it's an exact prediction or a general expected range, the people who get a lot more of their predictions right, along with roster construction, FAAB and lineup decisions, are the ones that will win their leagues.

Mark

[knuckleheads]

I CAN NOT LOOK AWAY...Not just from Rotoboy's videos, but from Doughy's rage at Rotoboy's arguments.

Snap analysis, Rotoboy's video's are like the incarnation of Doughboy's private message board channel. Questionable analysis, bordering on ranting, delivered in a very entertaining manner. That Rotoboy seems to drive Doughboy nuts is a topic of discussing for my Psychologist wife. I CAN NOT LOOK AWAY!

exact prediction or a general expected range, the people who get a lot more of their predictions right, along with roster construction, FAAB and lineup decisions, are the ones that will win their leagues.

To Mark's observation and to answer Rotoboy's video question, I am of the 'generally expected range' persuasion when it comes to predictions, with a heavy weighting towards reliability or likelihood of that expectation.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let me preface this by saying that projections are alright. If you love them, go to town on them.
I respect Brian (Bjoak) and his projection system. I know he puts a lot of work into maintaining his projections.
The key word in that sentence is 'his'.
RotoBro, you mention Steamer and other 'credible' projections.
Hopefully, you put the work in as well

Brian (Bjoak) is right. In a sense, we all use projections. Most of us just don't accept that a certain player will get a certain amount of numbers.
I start a notebook of lists and notes in August because my first draft starts at the end of September. I update these lists and notes almost every day.
When drafts start, I write down every pick from every drafter (not much of a computer guy)
I'll also write notes about each draft in where I would like to take players along with updating notes about news of health and position battles as the drafting season progresses.

In March, I start another notebook with Spring Training notes, position battles, and update lists nearly every day.
I try not to let Spring Training influence my ultimate picks too much. Hence the separate notebook. I will refer to that notebook, but I won't bring it to drafts.

On the day of drafts, I will bring my notebooks with updated players and notes.
By now, I know the player pool inside and out. I have a sense in what I feel every player is capable of doing.
I have lists for power. Lists for speed. And lists by position. Same for pitching and their categories.
No player has a certain 'value'.
Each player provides a spectrum of different uses in considering draft position and roster construction.

As far as study, I don't listen to podcast any longer. They drive me crazy. They use 'value' as a filler word every sentence. As I told you, when using a word so long and so hard, it renders the word useless.
Much like a high schooler dropping f-bombs. Amusing at first, but with constant use, it becomes part of his speech and more and more of his mates will disregard what is said as a whole.
I do enjoy a few writers.
I like trying to understand what the Hell Todd is saying. I'm not very fluent in Numerish, but I enjoy trying to keep up with what he is saying.
I also like listening and seeing Shawn's thoughts.
I don't like reading very many fantasy articles because most do not pertain to the NFBC style of play. As soon as a trade is mentioned, I quit reading. Trading leagues are a thing of the past for me.

So there you have it. That is the way I prepare for the regular season.
It's not much, but it's what I do.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I CAN NOT LOOK AWAY...Not just from Rotoboy's videos, but from Doughy's rage at Rotoboy's arguments.

Snap analysis, Rotoboy's video's are like the incarnation of Doughboy's private message board channel. Questionable analysis, bordering on ranting, delivered in a very entertaining manner. That Rotoboy seems to drive Doughboy nuts is a topic of discussing for my Psychologist wife. I CAN NOT LOOK AWAY!

exact prediction or a general expected range, the people who get a lot more of their predictions right, along with roster construction, FAAB and lineup decisions, are the ones that will win their leagues.

To Mark's observation and to answer Rotoboy's video question, I am of the 'generally expected range' persuasion when it comes to predictions, with a heavy weighting towards reliability or likelihood of that expectation.

Nah, not driving me crazy at all.
Of course, overusing the word 'value' always has put a burr in my saddle, but it seems everybody does it.
Reality is that I enjoy the videos. The content is nothing none of us haven't heard before, or we consider just plain wrong, but it is delivered very well.

[DOUGHBOYS]

That said, there is another rant building that has it's roots in a RotoBro video.
If it explodes, I'll post here tomorrow

[Bjs2025]

I CAN NOT LOOK AWAY...Not just from Rotoboy's videos, but from Doughy's rage at Rotoboy's arguments.

Snap analysis, Rotoboy's video's are like the incarnation of Doughboy's private message board channel. Questionable analysis, bordering on ranting, delivered in a very entertaining manner. That Rotoboy seems to drive Doughboy nuts is a topic of discussing for my Psychologist wife. I CAN NOT LOOK AWAY!

exact prediction or a general expected range, the people who get a lot more of their predictions right, along with roster construction, FAAB and lineup decisions, are the ones that will win their leagues.

To Mark's observation and to answer Rotoboy's video question, I am of the 'generally expected range' persuasion when it comes to predictions, with a heavy weighting towards reliability or likelihood of that expectation.

You make me LOL every time man, great post

[Bjs2025]

Let me preface this by saying that projections are alright. If you love them, go to town on them.
I respect Brian (Bjoak) and his projection system. I know he puts a lot of work into maintaining his projections.
The key word in that sentence is 'his'.
RotoBro, you mention Steamer and other 'credible' projections.
Hopefully, you put the work in as well

Brian (Bjoak) is right. In a sense, we all use projections. Most of us just don't accept that a certain player will get a certain amount of numbers.
I start a notebook of lists and notes in August because my first draft starts at the end of September. I update these lists and notes almost every day.
When drafts start, I write down every pick from every drafter (not much of a computer guy)
I'll also write notes about each draft in where I would like to take players along with updating notes about news of health and position battles as the drafting season progresses.

In March, I start another notebook with Spring Training notes, position battles, and update lists nearly every day.
I try not to let Spring Training influence my ultimate picks too much. Hence the separate notebook. I will refer to that notebook, but I won't bring it to drafts.

On the day of drafts, I will bring my notebooks with updated players and notes.
By now, I know the player pool inside and out. I have a sense in what I feel every player is capable of doing.
I have lists for power. Lists for speed. And lists by position. Same for pitching and their categories.
No player has a certain 'value'.
Each player provides a spectrum of different uses in considering draft position and roster construction.

As far as study, I don't listen to podcast any longer. They drive me crazy. They use 'value' as a filler word every sentence. As I told you, when using a word so long and so hard, it renders the word useless.
Much like a high schooler dropping f-bombs. Amusing at first, but with constant use, it becomes part of his speech and more and more of his mates will disregard what is said as a whole.
I do enjoy a few writers.
I like trying to understand what the Hell Todd is saying. I'm not very fluent in Numerish, but I enjoy trying to keep up with what he is saying.
I also like listening and seeing Shawn's thoughts.
I don't like reading very many fantasy articles because most do not pertain to the NFBC style of play. As soon as a trade is mentioned, I quit reading. Trading leagues are a thing of the past for me.

So there you have it. That is the way I prepare for the regular season.
It's not much, but it's what I do.

Sincerely, thanks for the post. I'm not challenging everyone, it's just that people argue when I say so much but never say what they do. I'm sure you enjoy your prep process. I'm also starting to agree with you on the podcast front. I listen to them because I love baseball and it is enjoyable to me but I get so sick of hearing the same garbage over and over again. Where you get upset when they talk about value I get upset when they talk about generalities that they cannot quantify.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sincerely, thanks for the post. I'm not challenging everyone, it's just that people argue when I say so much but never say what they do. I'm sure you enjoy your prep process. I'm also starting to agree with you on the podcast front. I listen to them because I love baseball and it is enjoyable to me but I get so sick of hearing the same garbage over and over again. Where you get upset when they talk about value I get upset when they talk about generalities that they cannot quantify.

Yep, I think we're talking about the same thing. When wanting to be very general, they'll use the 'value' word to make them sound smart.
I want to know specifics.

A month ago, I heard a podcast when I was jonesing for any baseball commentary.
It was said that Encarnacion had much more 'value' than Votto.
Now, I know most of you know how I feel about Votto, but what a stupid thing to say!
Encarnacion and Votto are completely different entities that are only compared because of their position.
Encarnacion is a whacker. Votto is a walker.
As such, Encarnacion will hit for more homers and rbi. Votto will hit for higher average.
Each player has his own purpose.
It is stupid to say that one has more 'value' over the other.
I may be looking for batting average, knowing that I am targeting power players later in a draft.
Votto would be the man for that job over Encarnacion (ugh).
To summarily say that Encarnacion has more 'value' than Votto, may make the podcaster sound smart, but it comes across as being very dumb.

[Edwards Kings]

Very helpful...

Encarnacion is a whacker.

Votto is a walker.

...got it!