Main Event Mistakes

[knuckleheads]

With more than 1/3 of Main Event Drafts set to be held tomorrow, there are some draft pitfalls I'd like to advise against falling into, separated into 3 categories:

1) Don't draft a guy too late (or in other words, let somebody else draft your targeted player).
2) Don't draft a guy too early (If you are going make mistake 1 or 2, 2 is preferable because at least you get your guy).
3) Under no circumstances try a quirky strategy.

Don't Draft a Guy Too Late

If you've discovered a difference-maker, don't get too cute and try get him in round 21 when you'd be lucky to get him in round 16. Reference your the ADP page, not for the ADP, but the highest spot that player has been selected (Min Pick). Then remind yourself that 20 players are going to set new ADP Min Pick standards during the Main Event.

Do not drag your feet on these rising players:

1) Michael Brantley - With an ADP of 217, drafters have been reading the conservative press on Brantley all spring. Then Brantley shows up for the last week of spring training and hits .385 with 2 doubles and 2 HR. Over the last 4 years, Brantley has averaged onl 58 strikeouts per season. That's not Joe DiMaggio territory, but it's Albert Pujols in his Prime territory... Projected ME ADP this weekend - 120, Projected Main Event Min Pick this weekend - 85.

2) Matt Harvey - 97 MPH. Worst case scenario, he lets up and throws 95 this year. Even with all the nay-saying, his ADP has been locked at 150 this year. Now that he's shown himself to be completely healthy, I would not be surprised if he gets taken in tandem with Jacob deGrom on the 4/5 turn to a rabid Mets fan who wins the Mike Trout lottery. PME ADP - 105, PME Min Pick - 60.

3) Christian Yelich - Will not be taken out of the first 2 rounds in next year's draft. Giancarlo's health may be as important to Yelich's end-of-year value this year as it is to Stanton's own value. Pitchers do not want to throw Stanton fastballs, and Yelich has 25 SB potential. He also had 23 more XBHs in 2016, a number that should be on the rise for the next 3 years. PME ADP - 45, PME Min Pick - 31.

4) Eric Hosmer - - Hosmer made all the expected jumps in power that were predicted in his age 26 season. His average dipped to .266 mostly due to a 25-game stretch coming out of the All-Star Break in which Hosmer hit .163. If Hosmer's average had stayed in the .290 range, he be going early third round rather than the 8th. Savvy owners have taken him as high as the last pick of the 4th round. Those who watched Hosmer's WBC heroics know that he is a big-game player. PME ADP - 90, PME Min Pick - 49.

5) Addison Russell - It is inexcusable that Russell's ADP is 133. Just 23 years old, Russell drove in 95 runs last year mostly batting in the bottom third of the batting order and hitting before or after the pitcher. Russell has a swing that should produce a .340 BABIP given the proper sample size. Last year his BABIP was .282. It would be no surprise if Russell's average improved to .280+ this year. Also, at 23 he still learning to use is 20+ SB speed. There will be years that Russell makes a run at .300 30/20/100/100. That may not be this year, but the 9th round is no place for this phenom. At least one early drafter saw the full power of Russell's potential, taking him with the 1st pick of the third round. PME ADP - 95, PME Min Pick - 65.

Gotta Travel, will post sections 2 and 3 when I get home. As I am sure ME drafters will be waiting with bated breath, I will try to post with enough time so that you can consider these warnings in your draft preparation for tomorrow.

[Deadheadz]

3) Under no circumstances try a quirky strategy.

Booooooooo!!!!!!!
You zig, I zag.

Go Zags!

[knuckleheads]

Sorry to leave you guys hanging...but back at it.

Bonus Don't Draft a Guy Too Late

6*) Kenley Jansen - ADP of 45 with a high pick of 21. That 21 was yours truly in a recent Online Challenge draft. Take all of the arguments for drafting Kershaw in the top three, the cut those arguments in half and add 45 saves and that's what you get with Jansen. There's no way he should ever make it out of a ME 3rd round, and it's perfectly acceptable to take him in the late second round. PME ADP - 40, PME Min Pick - 26.

Don't Draft a Guy Too Early -

Falling in love with inconsequential players leads to a slow bleed of your ME Overall aspirations. For this section, I will be recommending an ADP for each player, and predicting the latest the player should get drafted. Don't be fooled by these over-rated players:

1) Jonathan Villar - I must admit that I bought into the hype with Villar and was willing to take him at 2.14 if he had fallen that far in the Knucklehead's ME draft. Fortunately Villar went 2.4. If an owner believes that Villar's season last year is repeatable, then Villar should go top-10. However, taking Villar in the 2nd round means an owner is hoping Villar's 2016 season is repeatable. Hope may play with a 4th-round pick, but 2nd round picks must produce. Villar deserves to go somewhere between AJ Pollack and Dee Gordon. Recommended ME ADP - 45, predicted ME Max Pick - 60.

2) Matt Carpenter - The most over-drafted player of the season. Is no better than, and perhaps not as good as Adrian Gonzalez, who is regularly draft 100+ spots after Carpenter. Statistically speaking, Jedd Gyorko may have had a better year in 2016. RME ADP - 190, PME Max Pick - 220.

3) Marcus Stroman - The guy had four good starts at the end of 2015 and drafters have lost their minds ever since. Here's the statistic you need to know: 68. That's how many inches tall Stroman is. That number doesn't work for pitchers. I'd say Stroman is worth his weight in draft picks. RME ADP - 180, PME Max Pick - 230.

4) Tim Anderson - Statistically speaking, he was a little better than Howie Kendrick last year. Somehow that has earned him a higher drat spot than Troy Tulowitzki, who is also over-rated, but 2 classes better than Anderson. RME ADP - 225, PME Max Pick - 300 (which is round 20).

[knuckleheads]

Under No Circumstances Try a Quirk Strategy

Don't get me wrong, quirky strategies can lead to a ME Overall Championship...for other teams in your league. Failure by too many teams in one league to produce balanced lineups can help other teams in that league excel across the board. Do not blow your team up with these DIW plans:

1) Punting a Category - Simply put, in 3 of the last 4 main events, the winner has secured greater than 89.4% of the total points available. Finishing near last in any category creates a maximum point total of close to 90%. Case closed. Anyone not understanding this concept, please contact me and we can join the same ME league next season.

2) Pitcher Heavy - Drafting 6 pitchers in the first 8 rounds, or 8 pitchers in the first 12 rounds gives an equivalent advantage to the other drafters in the league of an added 6-8 draft positions. In other words, teams are drafting Adam Jones where they should be drafting Adam Eaton. Additionally, when your third hitter is Stephen Piscotty, or your fifth hitter is Logan Forsythe, your team is DIW in overall or league prizes.

3) Hitter Heavy - Likewise, if you are selecting David Price as your 2nd pitcher in round 9, you've rolled the dice into quicksand. Ratios are not to be toyed with, and without a ME anchor or two, a team is dipping too deep in the barrel to avoid the rotten apples.

Here's hoping you all find balance tomorrow and these tips will help each of you win the Main Event this year.