The NFBC DL Team

[DOUGHBOYS]

The word 'value' pisses me off to no end during the drafting season. It is overused by so many that the word loses any meaning whatsoever. Value, means something different to each of us. Even now.
A players 'value', during drafting season, is only conjured up by our own drafting minds.
How much 'value' would a drafter have received had he drafted Noah Syndergaard in the third round of an NFBC draft?
At the time, the drafter would be lauded for his great 'value pick'.
BUT, 'value' tanks when the real season begins. REAL value begins.
Aaron Judge would have been laughed at as a third round choice.
Real value makes Judge a much better choice than Syndergaard. We didn't know that.
We thought that Syndergaard was a 'value' after the 20th pick and didn't think about Judge till after 200 picks.
Truth is, none of really know 'value' during drafting season.
We only like to think we do.
I digress.

Today, with hindsight on our side, let's pick by adp round, the worst team we could have selected in relationship to health.
Next week, the worst team we could have selected in relationship to under performing players.
Next week, the best team we could have selected in relationship to over performing players.
I'll go 23 rounds and try to field a roster ready team. Let's see how it goes....

First Round- Madison Bumgarner
Josh Donaldson came close, but Donaldson (as the Blue Jays keep saying) should be back soon, while Bumgarner will be lucky to pitch two months of the season.

Second Round- Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard had competition with Starling Marte and Freddie Freeman. Marte wasn't hurt, but we treat his suspension the same as a long term injury. Marte should return with no injury problems and Freeman did give his owners a lot before leaving with his injury.
Syndergaard is a Mets pitcher. Which may be the worst health risk in sports right now.

Third Round- AJ Pollock
Pollock's only competitor is Ryan Braun. Pollock is probably THE highest risk player we draft. He has only played one complete year.
Pollock will turn 30 years old this year. He has missed more games than he has played during his major league career.
In his 20-something years, he has played one full year in the minors and one full year in the majors.
We know the risks. Without them, he would be a first round choice.
Turning 30 before next years draft may have more and more drafters less willing to take the risk.

Fourth Round- Zach Britton
Britton won out over fellow Closer Aroldis Chapman, Gary Sanchez, and Yoenis Cespedes.
Britton's injury does not sound good. And we hate reoccurring injury.
During draft season, Britton was thought to be a rock solid choice, while we were leery of drafting Greg Holland and Wade Davis.
Stupid us!

Fifth Round- Gregory Polanco

This round has been almost injury free. Mark Melancon, the only other player to see the DL.
Polanco's injury seems to be run of the mill, at least that is what his owners are hoping.

Sixth Round- Cole Hamels
Hamels was a bit of a shocker. His injury seemed to come from nowhere.
These eight-10 week injuries are hard to take near the beginning of the year. If being unfortunate enough to have two of them, it leaves a working roster of 28 players. A nightmare for NFBC owners.

Seventh Round- Jeurys Familia
Familia had strong competition from Adrian Beltre.
Yo Adrian! Are you ever coming back?
If drafters had been told that Beltre would still not be that close to playing in the middle of May, I doubt that Beltre would have a seventh round standing. Almost as if Beltre and Donaldson are having a worse calf contest.
Jeurys Familia added insult to injury for his drafters.
They had to wait out a suspension, only to see him go down to injury soon after. At the least, he had a droppable injury.

Eighth Round- David Price
His owners know the risks. And still do.

Ninth Round- Adam Eaton
Eaton is in the mold of Brett Lawrie in approaching the game. They play balls to the wall.
Which is great for the press to talk about, but in fantasy baseball, it only means injury risk.
Whatever happened to Brett Lawrie?

Tenth Round- David Dahl
Personally, I tried to stay away from Dahl this year. When he was hurt in Spring training, I took him off my lists.
Dahl has had an injury history throughout his minor league career. He is slow to come back from each of them.
One could say that he is a budding AJ Pollock.
Wonderful when he plays, but.....

So after Round 10, we have a team of pitchers and outfielders....

Bumgarner
Syndergaard
Hamels
Price
Britton
Familia
Pollock
Polanco
Eaton
Dahl

Round Eleven- Jameson Taillon
Nothing much to say. A surprise to all. Especially the Taillon family. Get well.

Round Twelve- Greg Bird
Bird gave the bird to all his drafters. He made them salivate during Spring Training.
Made good drafters, over draft him.
Made bad drafters, over draft him even more.
Then, he under performed.
Then, went to the dl.
And now, it is his owners giving him the bird.

Round Thirteen- Adrian Gonzalez
The best round for non-injured players. Gonzalez is already back and playing with the Dodgers.

Round Fourteen- Marcus Semien
Tough blow for his owners. Semien had little injury history.

Round Fifteen- Garrett Richards
We all knew the risks.

Round Sixteen- Drew Smyly
Yearly, Smyly torments his drafters. This year, no different.

Round Seventeen- Jason Heyward
An under performing year, followed by injury to a thumb year. Not good.

Round Eighteen- Tom Murphy
Murphy owners knew some of the risks. I don't think they bargained for THIS long of an absence though.
It is nice in seeing a catcher for the first time in the 18th round.

Round Nineteen- Travis d'arnaud
Catcher....CHECK!
Injury history...CHECK!
Mets...CHECK!

Round Twenty- Travis Janikowski
Janikowski's ineptness at hitting, before getting hurt made him droppable in all leagues.
No big loss.

Round 21-23 Pablo Sandoval, Howie Kendrick, Matt Duffy
Blah, Blah, and Blah

So, the all injured team looks like this (apologies to Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, etc owners whose players are more missed, but remember this is a round-by-round team

C- Tom Murphy
C- Travis d'arnaud
1B- Greg Bird
2B- Howie Kendrick
3B- Pablo Sandoval
SS- Marcus Semien
CI- Adrian Gonzalez
MI- Matt Duffy
OF- AJ Pollock
OF- Gregory Polanco
OF- Adam Eaton
OF- David Dahl
Of- Jason Heyward
U- Travis Janikowski

P- Madison Bumgarner
P- Noah Syndergaard
P- Cole Hamels
P- David Price
P- Jameson Taillon
P- Garrett Richards
P- Drew Smyly
P- Zach Britton
P- Jeurys Familia

If having a lot of these players...sympathies
Some, like Pollock and Richards, we knew the risks and it resulted in a risk/reward choice for drafters.
Some, like Hamels and Taillon come out of left field, where pitchers should never be anyway.

I learn some things with these posts as well.
I'm shocked to see how few large injuries have happened to middle infielders this year.
Marcus Semien, the exception.
Forsythe, Story, Gregorius, Tulo (never disappoints), As Cabrera (Mets, of course), Cano, and Brandon Crawford all being of the shorter term and more acceptable to fantasy players than players at other positions.

Catchers too. Although, catchers like Lucroy and Contreras have under performed, as a group they have stayed relatively healthy this year.

Under performing and over performing teams next week.

[Deadheadz]

Seven pitchers in first eleven picks?

Reminds me of a Chris King team from the past.
Nice

[DOUGHBOYS]

Seven pitchers in first eleven picks?

Reminds me of a Chris King team from the past.
Nice

They are not 'picks'.
They are the most hurtful injury of each round.

[Yah Mule]

I told myself I wouldn't draft Bird because I have a personal policy of giving hitters coming off labrum surgery an extra season to get the power back. I stuck to it pretty much until I broke down after another spring training tape measure blast and I bought him in my last auction. I could feel the buyer's remorse washing through me almost instantly and the 1 for 48 start, or whatever the hell it was, did not surprise me.

Holland is a guy I'm kicking myself over. I liked him so much coming into the year, grabbed him on a couple teams early and then found myself chasing other closers in subsequent drafts.

[Deadheadz]

They are not 'picks'.
They are the most hurtful injury of each round.

Sorry.
It seemed like you were putting together a worst case scenario of players who could have been picked in each round based on ADP and led to the most injury riddled team possible.

At least you're letting us all know it could be worse than we think with all the red paint we see on our rosters.

[KJ Duke]

From the headline I thought this topic might look different.

NFBC Disabled List:
Doughboys (knee tendinitis)
KJ (stiff neck)
Ambrosius (headaches)
Kessenich (disillusionment)
Deadhead (recurring concussion symptoms)

[Greg Ambrosius]

From the headline I thought this topic might look different.

NFBC Disabled List:
Doughboys (knee tendinitis)
KJ (stiff neck)
Ambrosius (headaches)
Kessenich (disillusionment)
Deadhead (recurring concussion symptoms)

I have been upgraded to "recurring migraines".

[headhunters]

holland- i was really surprised how few teams dropped him after dan blasted him after his 1st 3 saves. still time to drop him before the misery starts!

[DOUGHBOYS]

holland- i was really surprised how few teams dropped him after dan blasted him after his 1st 3 saves. still time to drop him before the misery starts!

Wrong again!
Thanks for pointing that out, Mike. Always there for me!
That said, I would be amazed if it lasted the full year.

Puig has been palatable this year too.
Wade Davis has retained health too.
There! I beat you to the punch on those two!

What fun would it be to be right all the time?

[Donacion]

Dan I suspect your team will be obsolete and need to be updated in about 4 weeks. Keuchel just hit the DL. Did you see the ESPN piece on the Mets strength and conditioning programs if not look it up. I've got training in personal fitness. I'm not surprised by the injuries especially the lower body injuries.

Joe Lecak

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan I suspect your team will be obsolete and need to be updated in about 4 weeks. Keuchel just hit the DL. Did you see the ESPN piece on the Mets strength and conditioning programs if not look it up. I've got training in personal fitness. I'm not surprised by the injuries especially the lower body injuries.

Joe Lecak

I suspect you're right, Joe
I'll take a look at that piece on the Mets, thanks!

With the money these players make and the pampering of players, I believe the 10 game dl is only natural.
And the use of it will expand.
I believe we will see five, 10, and 15 day dl's in the future along with more fluid rosters.
It sounds preposterous right now, but I also believe that players will win vacation time during the season in later contracts.
That'll make fantasy sports a real headache!

[Donacion]

Dan

Here is the link fascinating article. Read the part on Nick Swisher no wonder he kept getting hurt.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1940 ... abled-list

Joe

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan

Here is the link fascinating article. Read the part on Nick Swisher no wonder he kept getting hurt.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1940 ... abled-list

Joe

Wow, great piece, Joe.
One thing missing from that story is the mindset and competitive nature of today's athlete in how it pertains to their own bodies.
I know that there are 'competitions' in weight rooms in how much players can lift and how 'ripped' they are.
Defeating their purpose of what they are in the weight room for. Baseball.
'Ripped', is great at the beach. In baseball, it leads to muscle tightness and pulled muscles.
I believe Dr. Andrews had it right when he stated that old school baseball players 'accidentally' had the right recipe for baseball fitness.
Train for six-eight weeks in Spring Training.
Play baseball for six months.
Rest for four months.
And for kids enjoying baseball, play other sports when not baseball season.
I think about that when I see Spring Training snipets like Syndergaard's in which he became a weight room hero during the off season.

[knuckleheads]

Dan, it seems you can't even draft a good team when you know what's going to happen.

I'm not sure I get the point of this exercise. That drafted team would have been ridiculed for all it's lack of value on draft day.

And Value...

You keep using this word, value, but I am not sure it means what you think it means.

You buy a piece of fruit at the grocery store that looks and feels great, you pay the price (or value) of that piece of fruit and take it home. If that fruit is rotten when you cut it open, you got screwed, but it still had value when you bought it. Price is the value that you and the grocer agreed it had when you bought it.

This is no different than player's values before the season. Those values change as the season progresses, but the value (good or bad value) existed before the season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't agree.
That piece of fruit through fantasy eyes, does not have a set price. When we go to the store to buy that piece of fruit, we know the price, we know the quality.
In fantasy, we have customers, the produce Manager, the store manager, the ads on radio, the ads on tv, and news stories telling us that that piece of fruit is of this 'value' or that.
Not only that, but before we buy that piece of fruit, there will be thousands of other customers with a group opinion (adp) telling us what they think of that piece of fruit.
The analogy is not good.

RotoBoy keeps saying 'draft value'. Value to him and value to everybody else means something entirely different.
Greg and Tom on their radio show tell listeners that they will get more value from this player over that player.
So does 16 year old Billy across the street and 65 year old Sam in our local fantasy league.
We try hard to make an opinion, an opinion shared by many, a fact.
And the fact is, that there is no 'value' before a season begins. Just opinion.

The word has replaced sleeper as the most overused and misused word in fantasy sports.
It is so easy to say that it, that it is on the tips of tongues of every fantasy player.
We don't sound smart if we say Mike Trout is better than Bryce Harper, so we say Mike Trout has more value than Bryce Harper.
It's silly.

Before the season begins, we have adp.
Whether wanting to admit it or not (and I hate to), adp drives 'value'. Again, ADP is opinion.
A consensus of thousands of drafters (93% of who will lose) who drives 'value'.
During drafting season, NONE of these players have an actual or real 'value'.
A group, consisting of mostly losers, tries mightily to give them such though.
Why follow such a crowd?

We, as a group, thought that Trea Turner was a first rounder. Radio and experts (whoever they are) and adp told us so too.
It could have been because of his wonderful year last year. It could have been because of his triple position versatility.
Folks are pounding the airwaves and drooling in print that Trea Turner is a first round pick.
First round 'value'.
It is a FALSE value.
As almost every value turns out to be in pre-season.

ADP is NOT value. It is simply, a guide.
A look into what most are believing. We forget that.
I know radio folks do, including Greg and Tom, and other 'personalities' do, because they will lean on adp to back up a point. As if ADP proves something.

Look, I get why we use the word. We are in a hobby in which everything and I mean EVERYTHING has to be quantified.
We use thousands (almost literally now) of different statistics to prove a point into which player is a better pick over the other.
Last week, Freddie Freeman was playing like a first rounder for next year.
He was of the greatest real value.
Now, Freddie is dead. (Apologies to Curtis Mayfield)
'Value' can change in the blink of an eye during the real season.
We don't look at it that way during drafting season.
We look at our drafted roster as a pristine group of men ready to win first place for us.
The regular season changes both that and their 'value'.

[knuckleheads]

I don't agree.
That piece of fruit through fantasy eyes, does not have a set price. When we go to the store to buy that piece of fruit, we know the price, we know the quality....

The analogy is not good.

The analogy is exact and perfect.

We think we know the quality of a piece of fruit like we think we know the quality of a player. Value is always perception. Different people have different perceptions (varying more in fantasy baseball than fruit prices).

And it's really hard to say Mike Trout didn't have a fixed price this year. (ADP range would be a player's established price). If you get a player later in the draft than that established range, then you did get a get (draft) value for him.

But as with the value of all things, draft value is not guaranteed to remain the same, even for a day.

[Edwards Kings]

If you get a player later in the draft than that established range, then you did get a get (draft) value for him.

I get your point but respectfully disagree.

One, the "established range" of ADP only has use in the first third of the draft (maybe less) in the NFBC environment. After that, the "range" is so broad that based on standard deviation your chance of being able to select a certain player is two, three or even four rounds deep (especially as you get deeper in the draft).

Second, a player only has the "value" that his particular skill set brings to your team. If you do not need what that player brings, then ADP cannot help you no matter how far the player has "slipped".

And three, yes, I use ADP. Especially early in the draft when I use it to determine the opportunity cost (which I agree can be synonymous to value in certain circumstances) of selecting one skill set over another (top of the rotation starter versus middle of the order bat versus SB-tablesetter, et al). But very quickly I lose all sight of ADP and focus on filling holes that lead me to players that only a few of us may need (or value) at that particular stage of the draft, no matter where ADP indicates he could be drafted.

Value is so different to each individual drafter in the NFBC, especially after so very few rounds. To use or apply the term generically to a particular player makes good conversation, little else.

Just an opinion....

[Driver Love]

Doughboys,

Great Stuff as always! I drafted Syndergaard, Cespedes, Familia (I am not a Mets fan), Marte, Paxton, Kennedy and hit on a number of mid to late draft players that if paired with these guys would have my team checking all the boxes. It has been a painful spring. I sit here feeling like 1989 Mike Tyson blasted me with a left hook.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

Dan, it seems you can't even draft a good team when you know what's going to happen.

I'm not sure I get the point of this exercise. That drafted team would have been ridiculed for all it's lack of value on draft day.

And Value...

You keep using this word, value, but I am not sure it means what you think it means.

You buy a piece of fruit at the grocery store that looks and feels great, you pay the price (or value) of that piece of fruit and take it home. If that fruit is rotten when you cut it open, you got screwed, but it still had value when you bought it. Price is the value that you and the grocer agreed it had when you bought it.

This is no different than player's values before the season. Those values change as the season progresses, but the value (good or bad value) existed before the season.

Bingo. You nailed it. Other than the part about Dan being able to draft a good team. I am confident he can do that. I am with you that Dan does not seem to be able to grasp the concept of draft day value, at least my meaning of it.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

If you get a player later in the draft than that established range, then you did get a get (draft) value for him.

I get your point but respectfully disagree.

One, the "established range" of ADP only has use in the first third of the draft (maybe less) in the NFBC environment. After that, the "range" is so broad that based on standard deviation your chance of being able to select a certain player is two, three or even four rounds deep (especially as you get deeper in the draft).

Second, a player only has the "value" that his particular skill set brings to your team. If you do not need what that player brings, then ADP cannot help you no matter how far the player has "slipped".

And three, yes, I use ADP. Especially early in the draft when I use it to determine the opportunity cost (which I agree can be synonymous to value in certain circumstances) of selecting one skill set over another (top of the rotation starter versus middle of the order bat versus SB-tablesetter, et al). But very quickly I lose all sight of ADP and focus on filling holes that lead me to players that only a few of us may need (or value) at that particular stage of the draft, no matter where ADP indicates he could be drafted.

Value is so different to each individual drafter in the NFBC, especially after so very few rounds. To use or apply the term generically to a particular player makes good conversation, little else.

Just an opinion....

I agree 100 percent with the quote you started this with. If I am getting players I am neutral or positive on later than everyone else takes them, I like my chances. It has served me well. How much a guy has to fall for me to take him varies by the player. I have seem some incredible teams in football and baseball drafted by Mr. Edelman. He is one of the best. When I met him in Vegas this year, one of the things he mentioned is that he "will never reach." I don't either. Probably why I always think his teams are excellent.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan, it seems you can't even draft a good team when you know what's going to happen.

I'm not sure I get the point of this exercise. That drafted team would have been ridiculed for all it's lack of value on draft day.

And Value...

You keep using this word, value, but I am not sure it means what you think it means.

You buy a piece of fruit at the grocery store that looks and feels great, you pay the price (or value) of that piece of fruit and take it home. If that fruit is rotten when you cut it open, you got screwed, but it still had value when you bought it. Price is the value that you and the grocer agreed it had when you bought it.

This is no different than player's values before the season. Those values change as the season progresses, but the value (good or bad value) existed before the season.

Bingo. You nailed it. Other than the part about Dan being able to draft a good team. I am confident he can do that. I am with you that Dan does not seem to be able to grasp the concept of draft day value, at least my meaning of it.

And I was going to let this go....

Guys, the fruit analogy, in no way, parallels our draft.
Most of us will consume a fruit bought at the store within a day or two.
We don't get OUR fruit at the grocery store.
We have to go to the orchards and pick it from the tree before 14 others do!

After we pick OUR fruit, we have to see if it turns sour or maybe it'll be dropped and get hurt.
Or, if we were right in the fruit picked, it'll blossom into a first round fruit.
We nurture that fruit, we don't devour it!
We have to care for OUR FRUIT in starting lineups and the disabled list for 26 weeks, LONG, LONG after the fruit of the store has been consumed!

The analogy has nothing to do with what we do.
We choose OUR FRUIT right from the tree and it's 'first come, first serve'!
We feel fortunate if even half of our fruit survive the season.
And this year, more than others, how OUR FRUIT care for themselves during growing season is of utmost importance.
In the store, if it looks and tastes good, we eat it, Gone. Done.

The fruit at the store has a set value.
We only think that players have 'value' because of ADP.
It is just a guide.
We see very few people criticized for large bids with FAAB.
You know why? There is no guide.
We all do our best. But because there is no 'guide' we have wide, varying bids for different players in different leagues.
Nobody cries 'value' when they get a player for $1 that was bid in another league for $100.
Sure, we'd rather be the team spending $1, but none of us are crowing about it, at least until some results are known.
Almost as if admitting that we don't know if that value is $1 or $100 on certain players.
There is no adp for FAAB (thankfully).

Sometimes, I'll even find 'value' in losing a bid.
I am outbid for my top player and my second player in a thread and that third player that I win becomes a stud.
I know that's not 'value'.
It is 100%, guaranteed, dyed in the wool, Fantasy Gods were on my side....LUCK.
But later, it'll be perceived another way if I win the Overall contest or somebody breaks down my team.
I'll know that two others also thought those two top players were better than the third, but I'll reap the 'value' of that third player, knowing it was just damned luck.
And everybody else in the world will call it...say it with me...'value'.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

There are many ways to win in full season sports. The first way, very few can excel with on a regular basis, IMO. This method is drafting great players each pick and to hell with ADP. I sure as hell cannot do that. I believe the masses have it right. Having current adp information(rather than stale ADP information) is critical to my success. Weighing thoughts of respected players picks even more is an added weapon.

It also is probably why Joe and I performed better in the 12 teamers with this approach. We probably had top heavy teams with more firepower in the early rounds than most. You can correct flaws more easily in that format, both position weakness and category weakness. I have a second and a third in the main event but haven't been able to win. This is probably because my style of drafting is not as effective in the 15 team format. My major championships have come in the 12 team format with Joe, and a 14 team WCOFB format. Too many guys that are better than me at identifying good players in the 15 teamer. I am not able to make up the ground on them.

Basically, I feel that I do what I have to do to be the best I can be. That means value drafting based on what is left behind that I am comfortable with. By doing it this way, sometimes I allow myself to get the player "that i might actually think is the best pick" the next time by, as his normal selection timeline is later than who I took. Since, I have done well, I will not be convinced that it is the wrong way to go. Joe knows I am unwavering when it comes to this. He also knows I get very uncomfortable when there is nothing left behind and I actually have to decide for myself what to do. I don't like those picks as I am not getting a good deal.

The only year I wavered from this is when I partnered with Nelson Sousa in football one time. We both thought we were among the best. We had incredibly similar opinions of players that year. We loved Felix Jones, Ryan Mathews, Tom Brady way too early, Mario Manningham, Brandon Lloyd. How could we lose when we are both so smart and both loved these guys? By targeting them, instead of letting the draft come to us. They were all early round busts and made for a really tough year. Have never drafted that way since.

As for free agent bidding, I disagree somewhat with Dan on this also. While there is no data to help determine the proper amount, I try to bid an amount that would win the player about 25 percent of the time if I want him. And then go up or down accordingly from there. This keeps me from drastically overpaying very often, unless I do it by design to get to what I deem to be an amount that will get him 90 or whatever percent of the time as I need his skill set.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There are many ways to win in full season sports. The first way, very few can excel with on a regular basis, IMO. This method is drafting great players each pick and to hell with ADP. I sure as hell cannot do that. I believe the masses have it right. Having current adp information(rather than stale ADP information) is critical to my success. Weighing thoughts of respected players picks even more is an added weapon.

It also is probably why Joe and I performed better in the 12 teamers with this approach. We probably had top heavy teams with more firepower in the early rounds than most. You can correct flaws more easily in that format, both position weakness and category weakness. I have a second and a third in the main event but haven't been able to win. This is probably because my style of drafting is not as effective in the 15 team format. My major championships have come in the 12 team format with Joe, and a 14 team WCOFB format. Too many guys that are better than me at identifying good players in the 15 teamer. I am not able to make up the ground on them.

Basically, I feel that I do what I have to do to be the best I can be. That means value drafting based on what is left behind that I am comfortable with. By doing it this way, sometimes I allow myself to get the player "that i might actually think is the best pick" the next time by, as his normal selection timeline is later than who I took. Since, I have done well, I will not be convinced that it is the wrong way to go. Joe knows I am unwavering when it comes to this. He also knows I get very uncomfortable when there is nothing left behind and I actually have to decide for myself what to do. I don't like those picks as I am not getting a good deal.

The only year I wavered from this is when I partnered with Nelson Sousa in football one time. We both thought we were among the best. We had incredibly similar opinions of players that year. We loved Felix Jones, Ryan Mathews, Tom Brady way too early, Mario Manningham, Brandon Lloyd. How could we lose when we are both so smart and both loved these guys? By targeting them, instead of letting the draft come to us. They were all early round busts and made for a really tough year. Have never drafted that way since.

As for free agent bidding, I disagree somewhat with Dan on this also. While there is no data to help determine the proper amount, I try to bid an amount that would win the player about 25 percent of the time if I want him. And then go up or down accordingly from there. This keeps me from drastically overpaying very often, unless I do it by design to get to what I deem to be an amount that will get him 90 or whatever percent of the time as I need his skill set.

Oh for Heavens sakes, Chad!
What and how did you draft before the advent of ADP?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Here are the first 30 players taken in ADP...

1 Trout, Mike - hit
2 Betts, Mookie - hit
3 Kershaw, Clayton - hit
4 Altuve, Jose - hit
5 Bryant, Kris- hit
6 Arenado, Nolan- hit
7 Goldschmidt, Paul- hit
8 Machado, Manny- miss
9 Harper, Bryce- hit
10 Turner, Trea- miss
11 Donaldson, Josh- miss
12 Scherzer, Max- hit
13 Rizzo, Anthony- miss
14 Bumgarner, Madison- miss
15 Correa, Carlos- meh
16 Blackmon, Charlie- hit
17 Cabrera, Miguel- miss
18 Syndergaard, Noah- miss
19 Villar, Jonathan- miss
20 Sale, Chris- hit
21 Seager, Corey- meh
22 Votto, Joey hit- hit
23 Marte, Starling- miss
24 Kluber, Corey- miss
25 Freeman, Freddie- miss
26 Encarnacion, Edwin- miss
27 Lindor, Francisco- meh
28 Story, Trevor- miss
29 Bogaerts, Xander- miss
30 Darvish, Yu- hit

Hit's, misses, and 'meh's' are my own personal opinion for services rendered so far during the course of the season and how it reflects in being a top 2 round pick.
My final results are 13-14-3 or less than 50% correct for what is considered the two easiest rounds to predict.

This isn't a tirade about value or even adp. Even though adp cannot be patting themselves on the back.
It is just an illustration of what this crazy season has thrown us.
Also, it looks like those that had top seven picks (unless screwing it up by over drafting Turner) could not miss.
But man, after those seven picks, the misses are far more likely than the hits.

And yes, before getting your nose out of place, I realize that the cream should come to the top and it is likely that Machado, Rizzo and others will rise to the top.
On the other hand, it is just as likely (especially so this year) that for every player making such improvements in their game, others or they, themselves, will be injured.

[knuckleheads]

Dan, your whole value argument seems mislabeled to me.

It seems what you are really bothered by is drafters commenting on their projections as if they were fact rather than opinion, and then describing it as value as if the stats were facts.

When a drafter says I 'got good value' for Trout at pick 5, it's true that he did during the draft. The drafter did as well as he possible could have at pick 5 -- at the time of the draft. That doesn't guarantee he'll get good value for Trout during the season.