During Record HR Year: Is The Baseball Juiced?

[Greg Ambrosius]

We saw a dramatic increase in Home Runs last season, but this year is insane. Like record-breaking insane. Like Steroid Era insane.

But instead of the players being juiced -- well, at least fewer of them -- the baseballs are being juiced. That's the analysis from today's great USA Today story. Check it out here:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 440203001/

This part in the story shows amazing numbers for this season:

There have been 2,922 homers entering Thursday’s games. At a rate of 2.52 homers per game, MLB is on pace to eclipse 6,000 homers, shattering the all-time high.

That came in the height of baseball's so-called steroid era, when 5,693 homers - 2.34 per game - were hit in the 2000 season.

Baseball could surpass that by September - despite the fact the major league fly ball has increased less than 1% from 2016.

There already are 14 players who have 20 or more homers this year, putting them on 40-homer paces for the season. A year ago, just eight players hit 40 homers. Three years ago, Nelson Cruz of the Seattle Mariners was the only hitter with 40.

Dodger Stadium, long considered a pitcher’s paradise, is now the ninth-best place to hit home runs. Cavernous Target Field in Minneapolis, which was the most difficult place to hit homers when it opened in 2010, is now the fifth-easiest this year. The only place harder to hit homers than in Oakland a year ago was across the Bay in San Francisco, but it has surrendered the 11th-most homers.

Do you agree? Is the ball juiced? And how do we plan for this kind of production in coming years?

[rickerbockerNFBC]

If I had to guess on whether the ball is juiced or the players are juiced "again" (with top of the line masking agents), I'm going with the latter . . . and willing to bet a decent amount of money on it.

[Yah Mule]

538 reached the same conclusion that the balls are livelier. One thing that seems really telling is some guys are coming up from the minors and showing noticeably more power in the majors.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

If I had to guess on whether the ball is juiced or the players are juiced "again" (with top of the line masking agents), I'm going with the latter . . . and willing to bet a decent amount of money on it.

I agree with this, and one thing comes to mind. The quality of the pitching seems to worse than in the past. Too many middle relievers and 4th/5th starters that should be in AAA.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It is baseball's 'conspiracy theory'.
It has also been written about almost every year since the steroid era.
When offense is hard to explain, the baseball is questioned.
There would have to be orders from the Commisioner to change the stylings of the baseball.
I cannot see a reason for the top brass to change baseball's privately, while denying changes publicly.
Power and home runs have been on the rise over the last few years. The timing just does not fit.
It would not be worth the subterfuge.
If I had to gauge why the home run is increasing, I would blame masking agents (why doesn't MLB put masking agents on banned lists?...maybe it's not that simple) and the 'all or nothing' approach that is being used by more and more hitters.

[headhunters]

i looked at today's pitching match ups. yikes. it doesn't always play out like you expect- but some team could have 10 homers and 25 rbis after today. heck- that might have happened yesterday.

[Gates]

Personnally I'm totally behind the "all in swings" theory instead of the juiced baseball. Look at the HR leader board, why would all the used to 5-10-15-20 HR a season players would all take advantage of the so called juiced balls when all the expected HR leaders like Stanton, Goldschmidt, Arenado, etc... are incapable of taking advantage of it and have their usual if not lower season production.

Gaëtan

[Gates]

Furthermore to the all-in swings theory, wondering if pitchers pitching count is not a bit behind it - absolutely no data to back this up - wanting to finish it up faster, but I don't remember having seen (yes I am watching way too much baseball...as per my girlfriend) so many 0 - 2, 1 - 2 pitches going over the fence. Pitchers wanted to go deeper into games, trying to get more Ks, all this in line of thinking toward bonuses, next contract, etc... Just saying...

Gaëtan

[Deadheadz]

Personnally I'm totally behind the "all in swings" theory instead of the juiced baseball. Look at the HR leader board, why would all the used to 5-10-15-20 HR a season players would all take advantage of the so called juiced balls when all the expected HR leaders like Stanton, Goldschmidt, Arenado, etc... are incapable of taking advantage of it and have their usual if not lower season production.

Gaëtan

There does seem to be a correlation between greater home run production and higher strikeout rates happening at the same time. That leads me to believe it's based on approach. There doesn't seem to be an appetite among GMs to punish hitters who strike out too much. So long as they are putting runs on the scoreboard.

One theory is that "if I'm gonna get shifted and have a low batting average because the defense is positioned where I hit the ball, I may as well change my approach so I either hit it over the fence or I strikeout more often. Either way I have a low batting average so why not take the approach where I get paid for power rather than demoted for not producing?"

Many players advance in the minors based on power but have to change their game to make it to the Show. Now those players can sell out to power because it's a skill they've had all long.

[FrozenTundra]

The article in theringer.com that was all too briefly mentioned in the USA Today article was written by Ben Lindbergh. It makes a pretty convincing argument that it is indeed the ball: https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-home-run ... ----------

[BEF]

And Joe Sheehan's article in his Newsletter on June 30 took some of Lindbergh's data and expanded it further. Pretty fascinating stuff.

[Edwards Kings]

A few things I know:

1) Fat-free mayo does not "taste just as good".
2) The watched pot will boil if you cuss at it loudly enough to make your wife turn around and look.
3) The baseball is not juiced.

There have been and will always be spikes of power and every time it happens the juiced ball rumors comes up. Only slightly more resilient than the "grassy knoll" and "Area 51" theories.

[King of Queens]

NFBC Main Event Records
Home Runs
1. East Coast Schwag 375 (2006)
2. Doug's Dawgs 355 (2016)
3. Vinnies Team 353 (2006)
4. Team enfield 349 (2016)
T5. Canadian Beavers 346 (2016)
T5. SHAPAN 346 (2016)
T7. Bronx Yankees 343 (2016)
T7. Team Pinkstaff 343 (2016)
9. SMELLY KAT EDWIN 342 (2016)
T10. AMAZINS 341 (2006)
T10. bluebloods 341 (2006)

2017 NFBC Main Event (through games of 7/5/2017)
Home Runs
1. Team Kaufmann 211
T2. Hell Bent For Leather 202
T2. PTBNLs 202
T4. Oaktown 200
T4. Team Never Lucky 200
6. Team Warner 197
T7. Gold Star Award 196
T7. Team Shairson 196
T7. The Ballad of Ballschnoble 196
T10. King of Queens 195
T10. Team Weedeater 195

With only 52.26% of the season complete, it appears that the all-time Top 10 will look somewhat (and perhaps ENTIRELY) different in a few months.

[Greg Ambrosius]

NFBC Main Event Records
Home Runs
1. East Coast Schwag 375 (2006)
2. Doug's Dawgs 355 (2016)
3. Vinnies Team 353 (2006)
4. Team enfield 349 (2016)
T5. Canadian Beavers 346 (2016)
T5. SHAPAN 346 (2016)
T7. Bronx Yankees 343 (2016)
T7. Team Pinkstaff 343 (2016)
9. SMELLY KAT EDWIN 342 (2016)
T10. AMAZINS 341 (2006)
T10. bluebloods 341 (2006)

2017 NFBC Main Event (through games of 7/5/2017)
Home Runs
1. Team Kaufmann 211
T2. Hell Bent For Leather 202
T2. PTBNLs 202
T4. Oaktown 200
T4. Team Never Lucky 200
6. Team Warner 197
T7. Gold Star Award 196
T7. Team Shairson 196
T7. The Ballad of Ballschnoble 196
T10. King of Queens 195
T10. Team Weedeater 195

With only 52.26% of the season complete, it appears that the all-time Top 10 will look somewhat (and perhaps ENTIRELY) different in a few months.

Yeah, that's insane. It's hard to believe the baseball hasn't changed somewhat when so many players are hammering homers across the board. Wow, those numbers are crazy.

[DOUGHBOYS]

The leading batting average for an NFBC Main Event team this year is .2876
Ten years ago, there were 28 teams with better batting averages over the full year.
How is it that the juiced ball is helping home runs, but not creating better average numbers as balls zoom around the park?

When touchdowns go up in football, the football is never to blame.
Writers like to reason that the style of play has changed.
Yet, in baseball, it is the ball.
The style of play has changed dramatically in baseball, yet they blame the ball.

Logistically, it makes no sense.
Home runs have been on the rise. The baseball does not NEED to be changed for home runs.
Conspiracy theorists still maintain that the Commisioner of Baseball would risk his integrity and job to change the way a baseball is made and deny changes to the public.
Ask Nick Markakis if the baseball has been changed. He has three homers this year in a homer haven.
Ask Dustin Pedroia who has two.

It's the muscle guys or all or nothing swings that have the most home runs. And there are more of them each year.
Baseball is changing, not the baseball's.

[King of Queens]

The leading batting average for an NFBC Main Event team this year is .2876
Ten years ago, there were 28 teams with better batting averages over the full year.
How is it that the juiced ball is helping home runs, but not creating better average numbers as balls zoom around the park?

Defensive shifts have to play a big role in declining batting averages.

As you said, the game has changed.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Yep.
Baseball is changing.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just a note...
There are few shifts preventing doubles or triples.
With a livelier ball, all extra base hits should be up.
They're not.
58 hitters had at least three triples by the All Star break last year.
This year, just 36,
47 hitters had at least 20 doubles this time last year.
30 players this year.

The swings have changed.
I remember the days when Sadahara Oh's leg lift and kick were met with snickers.
Now, most hitters employ a form of it.
Jose Altuve, the smallest player is now swinging hard enough to drop him to a knee, something normal for Beltre, Bautista, and Donaldson.
Bellinger has a helicopter swing that shouts 'Hard or nothing'.
Eric Thames does a corkscrew.

Moving runners over, a wasted out.
Small ball, vanished.
We are seeing Springer, Blackmon, Rizzo, Judge, Bryant, Betts, Schwarber, and Bautista at or near the top of lineups, not the middle.
Instant offense, preferable to a manufactured run.
Dee Gordon is followed in the lineup by Giancarlo Stanton.
It's simply a different game, not a different ball.

[Yah Mule]

Sitting here watching the Nats go back to back to back to back.

[Yah Mule]

And a smattering of sarcastic boos as Murphy flies out.

[Yah Mule]

It was just a breather as Rendon smacks homer number five of the inning and six in 2 1/3 innings for the Nats. The ball is perfectly fine.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

Not sure about the ball. Seems like it has something to do with it. How much, I am not sure. As for batting averages. Some of the reasons would be down, even if the ball is better to hit are shifts, and more importantly, the types of batters that are being used. Sabermetrics has evolved the game. The punch and judy, good average hitters have proven to be less valuable in today's game. OBP and power are deemed to be far more important. Therefore there are less guys in lineups that are punch an judy high average guys. It is going to drive NFBC batting averages down as well.

[Yah Mule]

Just saw Lobaton absolutely crush one for homer number eight in 3 1/3 innings. None of these have been cheap. FP Santangelo is currently name dropping Drysdale and Gibson. Changing over to the Brewers broadcast while these guys reminisce about "old school baseball".

Nats about to bat around for the second time today.

[Rog]

Where they only letting Washington hit the juiced balls?

[DOUGHBOYS]

1. Could it be the 'rally pigeon' in back of home plate while the homers were flying?

2. Could it be that the two pitchers giving up the homers have an ERA of just over 8.00 and just under 8.00 and have pitched in Major League Baseball while mostly having that status questioned?

3. Could it be that the Commisioner of baseball, without agreement of the owners or players, took it upon himself to change the way baseballs were made in past years and conspired with the makers of baseballs in a factory in a foreign country to juice the baseball without one person 'spilling the beans'?

I'll take what is behind door two.