NFBC Message Boards

Okay, Tom and I have the KDS preferences in front of us as we prepare to pick the league draft spots in the next two days. It's an interesting lot, that's for sure.



I know that some of you struggled to determine your KDS preferences, but I'd love to hear what you finally settled at for your top preferences and why. Anyone care to share with the group?

I heard signups close after midnight 2night. Does that mean draft slots tomorrow? Yummy...

Nothing scientific with me - I had the number one pick in '05 and the number 2 pick in '06. I just wanted to get more in the middle of the draft. Was not totally comfortable with an end spot. It really affects your thought process knowing you have to wait 29 picks to get someone.



With that being said, I'll probably get 14 or 15 this year....

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I heard signups close after midnight 2night. Does that mean draft slots tomorrow? Yummy... Only if you answer his question.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, Tom and I have the KDS preferences in front of us as we prepare to pick the league draft spots in the next two days. It's an interesting lot, that's for sure.



I know that some of you struggled to determine your KDS preferences, but I'd love to hear what you finally settled at for your top preferences and why. Anyone care to share with the group?

my KDS was determined by what was the last slot that i could procure AROD with.

I hate the ends, but did pick slot #1 as my first pick to get into the Pujols Derby. After that, I think the talent flattens out a bit for the rest of the 1st rd. I like the mid-to-late slot (11-13) because I like the way the 3-4 turn comes around. Allows me to start the run on closers/top SPs. A lot of arms get picked thruout the 4th and early 5th, so when it comes back down to me not too many bats are missing since my 4th rndr 20 or so picks ago.

Solid picks available throughout rd 1. My KDS had more to do with who I expected to be available at different slots in the 2nd and 3rd rds. My guess would be we'll see the most dispersion of preferred slots yet for the NFBC, opposite the way of football in recent years.

Let's see where I end up. My preference this year was middle, but closer to the front. I went 6-7-5-8-9-10-1-2-3-4-11-12-13-14-15.



It appears that there is more volatility in the top 4 or 5 as compared to prior years. Sitting at 6-7-5 (if I get it), I think one of my top four picks will fall to me. It is tough to get excess "value" out of the first round, but this could be the year. It is also the perfect position IF I wanted to gamble on Santana (I think any pitcher in the first round is a gamble, so save your typing) or Utley.



The tail end is my least favorite because I see a significant drop off near the end of the third round into the fourth for offense.



[ March 07, 2007, 03:59 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I heard signups close after midnight 2night. Does that mean draft slots tomorrow? Yummy... We're making progress, but some of our last guys need to finalize work plans, finances, etc. Most of the credit card issues are resolved except for a handful, so we've made good progress today. Our initial goal was tomorrow afternoon, but it's possible it could be Friday at noon. I can definitely promise draft picks no later than Friday afternoon as we're on pace for the main event. Just hang tight with us.

I set up my KDS as to where I saw the biggest drop off after the first couple rounds and determined I wanted 3 picks in the top 35 and also the last spot for AROD like Gekko said, so I had 1,5,4,3,2 as the first 5. If Arod is not there, there are plenty of quality 3B this year, but he is due. I am fine with any of the first 5

I still went 1 first , just to keep my streak of number 1 picks alive.Puljos IS JUST too good , i cant pass him up.Then 5,6, .

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I still went 1 first , just to keep my streak of number 1 picks alive.Puljos IS JUST too good , i cant pass him up.Then 5,6, . Great minds think alike



[ March 07, 2007, 05:54 PM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

I agree that after the top 36 pick, there is a huge drop off in offensive performance and set my KDS settings to reflect getting a top 6 pick.

I am hoping for a "top 6 pick".



I worked my way out from the middle...7,8,6,9,5,10...then went 1-4, and 11-15.



I like what's in the middle of the 3rd, and I hate long runs in between picks like the ends offer. Keeps me on my toes...knowing it's only 15 or so picks until you go again...and you can enter a "run on ____" rather than sit and watch them all go off the board!



~Lance

I used the location from where last year’s money winners drafted as my basis for a model.



No draft position produced more league champions in 2006 that the #15 hole. 4 of the 22 league champs had the 15th pick, and 6 teams drafting 15th finished in the money.



The second most league champions came out of the #13 hole last year. 3 of the 22 league champs had the 13th pick, and 6 teams drafting 13th finished in the money.



The only draft position which produced seven teams that finished in the money was the #14 hole.



The only other draft positions with at least six teams finishing in the money were the #11 and #10 holes.



In all, 12 of the 22 league champs picked between 10th and 15th. As a comparison, only 4 of the 22 league champs picked between 1st and 5th.



Nobody won a league title in 2006 picking out of either the #2 or #3 holes, and draft slots #1, #5, #6 and #8 only produced one league champ each.



Basically, the best spots in 2006 were at the end of the draft. The most success came from teams who picked 15th, 13th, 14th, 10th and then 11th.



The least success in 2006 went to teams who picked 6th, 1st, 7th, 2nd and then 3rd.



Is one year enough of a sample for this to be scientifically valid? No.



Is it possible that this pattern has been going on for more than one year? Of course.

After careful study of all the facts looking at past history and listening to Tom I went. 1-15 stright. See Tom I do like ya.



[ March 07, 2007, 09:16 PM: Message edited by: Walla Walla ]

I am such a big fan of having back to back picks. I went #1 first and then 15-14-13 with the next 3.



Always nice to shore up 2 positions at a time.



Can't wait!



Steve Pletkin