NFBC Message Boards

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/ ... c821506d1d

Hint of a threat, but to me the key points are at the end (accents added by me):

"To be clear, there’s yet to be any formal accusation of collusion, nor, more importantly, has there been any proof of the matter. Rather, we’ve seen arguments that run counter to that very notion — some from players themselves — suggesting that the small-scale increase to the luxury tax, the hard cap on draft/international spending and the link between draft compensation and free agency have all disincentivized teams from spending. Those were bargained into the CBA during negotiations between the league and the union, of course, and those factors play no small part in what has been a glacial offseason that has left a significant portion of the industry baffled and divided at a historic high-point for MLB revenues."

Besides everything that's already been discussed elsewhere (luxury tax, players being greedy and a history of bad free agents contract), I think part of the problem is the salaries before a player reaches free agency.

If you look at the NHL, players have a 3 year rookie contract which for the best players can reach 3.7M after incentives and then they are restricted free agents. They still belong to the team that drafted them and can't sign anywhere else but Connor McDavid became the highest paid player in the league by signing a 100 M for 8 year deal at 12.5M per season at 21 years old.

What this does is that players get paid earlier in their career and for an organisation, it increases the cost of doing a full rebuild. If you want to tank and get high draft picks for 3-4 years, you can do it but when your young guys get good, you have a 2 year window to win the Cup because after that you'll have to pay your young players and your advantage isn't that great anymore.

According to WAR, George Springer has been the 21st best hitter in the majors over the past 3 years and he's in the prime of his career at 28 years old. If he keeps going through arbitration he's probably going to earn between 10 M and 15M over the next 3 seasons, then become a UFA at 31 and get 20-25M a year for 6-7 years,

It doesn't make sense why a 28 year old George Springer gets paid 10 M a year and a 37 year old George Springer would get paid more than twice as much. No wonder teams are willing to go through long rebuilds, the incentives of doing that are ridiculously high. You can tank for 5-6 years, you get great picks, International bonus money etc and if you succeed, you become a World Series contender for 5-6 years because all your young players don't get paid their fair market value until they get in their thirties.

If arbitration was based more on the player's talent level rather than his age and previous contract, I don't think the incentive of going through a long rebuild would be quite as high.

I understand that the NHL has a salary cap and a system like the NHL for young players would hurt smaller market teams but I think there's a middle ground somewhere.