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First off, I don't ever remember receiving the #1 pick in the NFBC main event spanning 14 YEARS. on the flip side, i know some owners receive MULTIPLE #1 picks in the main event in the SAME year. WTF

For this year, I've done 13 drafts. I have NOT been selected 1st, 2nd, 4th or 5th out of "the hat" and only once was selected 3rd. This NFBC random slot generator really BLOWS for some of us.

Draft Champions Express #208 ; Choice Order: 3
Draft Champions Express #261 ; Choice Order: 6
Main Event #644 ; Choice Order: 7
Draft Champions Express #409 ; Choice Order: 7
Draft Champions - 2 Hour #162 ; Choice Order: 7
Main Event #462 ; Choice Order: 8
Draft Champions - 4 Hour #34 ; Choice Order: 8
Draft Champions - 2 Hour #94 ; Choice Order: 9
Draft Champions Express #625 ; Choice Order: 10
Draft Champions Express #599 ; Choice Order: 12
Draft Champions Express #603 ; Choice Order: 13
Auction Championship #438 ; Choice Order: 14
Draft Champions Express #76 ; Choice Order: 14

I blame Tom.

Random?

13, 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 6, 2, 2, ?
After 8 tries KDS 1&15 seem to elude me despite being my top two choices

this is why all main event leagues should be blind bidding on your draft slot. we apportion free agents that way. should be the same process for draft slots. we don't assign free agents "randomly".

if someone can explain how having some owners/partners receiving multiple #1 main event picks this year while some owners can't sniff the #1 pick (for YEARS) is fair and good for the game, please do so.

Gekko wrote:this is why all main event leagues should be blind bidding on your draft slot. we apportion free agents that way. should be the same process for draft slots. we don't assign free agents "randomly".

if someone can explain how having some owners/partners receiving multiple #1 main event picks this year while some owners can't sniff the #1 pick (for YEARS) is fair and good for the game, please do so.

NFBC tells us you can win from any position don’t they?
When the draft snakes the way it does you can debate whether it’s better to have one top 20 pick or two.

I believe this has a binomial distribution solution.

Binomial(n=number of trials, k=number of successes, p=probability of success)

In Deadheadz' case, not getting one of his top two choices in 9 tries equals a very reasonable 27.6% chance of occurring. Binomial(n=9,k=0,p=2/15).

However in Gekko's case, only getting 1 top 5 selection out 13 tries comes to down to a much more unlucky 3.3%. Binomial(n=13,k=1,p=5/15).

jvetter wrote:
However in Gekko's case, only getting 1 top 5 selection out 13 tries comes to down to a much more unlucky 3.3%. Binomial(n=13,k=1,p=5/15).

translation ---> NFBC Random Slot Generator BLOWS

jvetter wrote:I believe this has a binomial distribution solution.

Binomial(n=number of trials, k=number of successes, p=probability of success)

In Deadheadz' case, not getting one of his top two choices in 9 tries equals a very reasonable 27.6% chance of occurring. Binomial(n=9,k=0,p=2/15).

However in Gekko's case, only getting 1 top 5 selection out 13 tries comes to down to a much more unlucky 3.3%. Binomial(n=13,k=1,p=5/15).

no thats not the way it occurs.. the pick is not random.. its driven by an outside force...factor that randomness in...

There is one owner this season -

**Side Note- Don't look him up. I'm not writing this to 'call him out'. It's not his 'fault'. It has nothing to do with him. I just happen to be aware of the fact I'm about to post and it adds to this conversation. (PS, it's not me ) - End Side Note**

- that is in 7 live events, a mix of Mains and Auctions. His seat position at these events is...
1..1..1..5..15..13..1

I have no idea what his KDS for those events were.
I have no idea what the KDS of other owners in that league were.

It is most likely an unusual sequence of events that led to this outcome, but damn, getting seat 1 four of seven times is odd. Not exactly lottery winning odd (and people do win the lottery), but odd nevertheless.

** Side Note 2- I'm not a KDS-truther, but maybe get a new randomizer next year - End Side Note**

.

Take an Excel spreadsheet, use the RAND() function and test it out for yourself. I did a quick test for fun and if you take 15 different owners who each do 15 drafts. Generally about 1/3 of them will never get the 1st pick and another 1/3 will have it more than once.

You could do 30 drafts and never get your first choice, it happens...

Navel Lint wrote:There is one owner this season -

**Side Note- Don't look him up. I'm not writing this to 'call him out'. It's not his 'fault'. It has nothing to do with him. I just happen to be aware of the fact I'm about to post and it adds to this conversation. (PS, it's not me ) - End Side Note**

- that is in 7 live events, a mix of Mains and Auctions. His seat position at these events is...
1..1..1..5..15..13..1

I have no idea what his KDS for those events were.
I have no idea what the KDS of other owners in that league were.

It is most likely an unusual sequence of events that led to this outcome, but damn, getting seat 1 four of seven times is odd. Not exactly lottery winning odd (and people do win the lottery), but odd nevertheless.

if this is true, how the F is that fair?

Gekko wrote:

Navel Lint wrote:There is one owner this season -

**Side Note- Don't look him up. I'm not writing this to 'call him out'. It's not his 'fault'. It has nothing to do with him. I just happen to be aware of the fact I'm about to post and it adds to this conversation. (PS, it's not me ) - End Side Note**

- that is in 7 live events, a mix of Mains and Auctions. His seat position at these events is...
1..1..1..5..15..13..1

I have no idea what his KDS for those events were.
I have no idea what the KDS of other owners in that league were.

It is most likely an unusual sequence of events that led to this outcome, but damn, getting seat 1 four of seven times is odd. Not exactly lottery winning odd (and people do win the lottery), but odd nevertheless.

if this is true, how the F is that fair?

The cosmos hates you...

You could call him lucky.
But imagine how lucky he is if he took Bumgarner at pick 31 in every league.

Luck is relative.

I hear it factors in likability...

Gekko wrote:

Navel Lint wrote:There is one owner this season -

**Side Note- Don't look him up. I'm not writing this to 'call him out'. It's not his 'fault'. It has nothing to do with him. I just happen to be aware of the fact I'm about to post and it adds to this conversation. (PS, it's not me ) - End Side Note**

- that is in 7 live events, a mix of Mains and Auctions. His seat position at these events is...
1..1..1..5..15..13..1

I have no idea what his KDS for those events were.
I have no idea what the KDS of other owners in that league were.

It is most likely an unusual sequence of events that led to this outcome, but damn, getting seat 1 four of seven times is odd. Not exactly lottery winning odd (and people do win the lottery), but odd nevertheless.

if this is true, how the F is that fair?

Hey Mark , We finally found something YOUR unlucky in. maybe make the random pick machine some Cookies ?????

One more reason to love auctions. The guy nominating first has zero advantage over the guy who goes last.

We are being as transparent as we possibly can be with the random draft spot generator so that folks can see EXACTLY how they got the draft spot they were given.

Go to any of your teams and click on League in the top navigational bar and pull down to League Home. Under your KDS selections you will see the actual draft list and the order of the random selections and the actual draft selections that they got. It allows you to see who was randomly chosen by the computer first and where that owner chose to draft from. This goes down for all 15 owners. We can't be more transparent than this.

As many people noted here, the draft spots are sent out immediately after the league is created, so there certainly isn't any pause or anything we do manually to these listings. The computer doesn't know Greg from Gekko and it couldn't care less. It's throwing 15 names into a random optimizer and spitting out 15 names, before immediately taking the top preference from each owner. Feel free to see who the lucky owners are who won the draw from the computer, and at the end of the day, blame the computer or thank the computer. Someone has to be drawn 1st and someone has to be drawn 15th. It sucks. But that's how it's done.

I wish everyone got their 1st preference. I really do. We all do. Some years you get a shitload of bad picks. Other years you got a shitload of good picks. Sometimes you get 14 in the Main Event and 1 in the Auction. The computer doesn't know what the event is or what your name is. It's stupid. It's a computer.

If you're not getting your first preference that means that somebody else is. It sucks....for you. But not for him. Just put your head down and win from any spot. If there's anything the NFBC Main Event has proven, it's that getting the top spot doesn't guarantee anything. You can win from any spot. You really can. Good owners make it happen from anywhere.

There's no crying in baseball. Just good managing.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:We are being as transparent as we possibly can be with the random draft spot generator so that folks can see EXACTLY how they got the draft spot they were given.

Go to any of your teams and click on League in the top navigational bar and pull down to League Home. Under your KDS selections you will see the actual draft list and the order of the random selections and the actual draft selections that they got. It allows you to see who was randomly chosen by the computer first and where that owner chose to draft from. This goes down for all 15 owners. We can't be more transparent than this.

As many people noted here, the draft spots are sent out immediately after the league is created, so there certainly isn't any pause or anything we do manually to these listings. The computer doesn't know Greg from Gekko and it couldn't care less. It's throwing 15 names into a random optimizer and spitting out 15 names, before immediately taking the top preference from each owner. Feel free to see who the lucky owners are who won the draw from the computer, and at the end of the day, blame the computer or thank the computer. Someone has to be drawn 1st and someone has to be drawn 15th. It sucks. But that's how it's done.

I wish everyone got their 1st preference. I really do. We all do. Some years you get a shitload of bad picks. Other years you got a shitload of good picks. Sometimes you get 14 in the Main Event and 1 in the Auction. The computer doesn't know what the event is or what your name is. It's stupid. It's a computer.

If you're not getting your first preference that means that somebody else is. It sucks....for you. But not for him. Just put your head down and win from any spot. If there's anything the NFBC Main Event has proven, it's that getting the top spot doesn't guarantee anything. You can win from any spot. You really can. Good owners make it happen from anywhere.

There's no crying in baseball. Just good managing.

Greg, the easy fix to this "problem" would be to make all live event KDS draws "Iron Balls" style like the MTM Ultimate and "Midnight Madness" drafts. Doing them this way would ensure that everyone experiences the transparency most would love to have with this process, while at the same time adding the suspense, anticipation, and excitement that doing the KDS this way adds to the live event experience. To date, I have never had even one complaint and everyone involved loves the process. We are all pretty much pros who do these high stakes live events, so there is no real need for everyone to have their draft spots a week in advance. Like you said, anyone should be able to draft and win from any spot. Knowing your league and it's participants in advance is one thing, but the need to know your draft spot is another. You should give some serious consideration to this idea and others starting now so that the 2019 NFBC live event experience will be better than ever.

There's no problem here. I like getting my draft slot a week prior. The MtM ironhead KDS is alright for a change of pace - What I DON'T like is having to dump my gear in a spot and then having to move it again...

Quahogs wrote:There's no problem here. I like getting my draft slot a week prior. The MtM ironhead KDS is alright for a change of pace - What I DON'T like is having to dump my gear in a spot and then having to move it again...

Agreed. I also like that each of the 34 Main Event leagues, whether online or live, is consistent with the 5 day (120 hour) advance notice. Keeps everyone on a level playing field.

You can't do Iron Balls for live Mains and random KDS for online Mains...or maybe the NFBC should start an Iron Balls youtube channel for those and get some interesting new traffic

We all trust the NFBC with our money yet some people don't trust them with a random draft spot generator that barely has any impact (if any at all) on the final results... Really?

King of Queens wrote:

Quahogs wrote:There's no problem here. I like getting my draft slot a week prior. The MtM ironhead KDS is alright for a change of pace - What I DON'T like is having to dump my gear in a spot and then having to move it again...

Agreed. I also like that each of the 34 Main Event leagues, whether online or live, is consistent with the 5 day (120 hour) advance notice. Keeps everyone on a level playing field.

triple agree I have played in the mtm in spite of iron balls not because of it. Don't get me wrong great league but I prefer the spot early. I lead a fairly boring life and having a couple of evenings to map out potential strategies is sadly fun for me.

To me, this ends the conversation:

"anyone should be able to draft and win from any spot"

"We all trust the NFBC with our money yet some people don't trust them with a random draft spot generator that barely has any impact (if any at all) on the final results... Really?"