See You At The Arizona Fall League This Week

[Greg Ambrosius]

I'm happy to be part of the 25th annual Arizona Fall League Symposium, that was first started by Ron Shandler and Rick Wilton in 1994. The AFL Symposium starts Thursday night in Scottsdale and will be held through Sunday. We are hosting 2-3 Arizona Fall League Draft Champions leagues on Friday and I'm also speaking on Sunday morning at 8:30 about Draft Trends and early season draft results. Derek Van Riper of Rotowire.com is hosting that panel.

Everyone at USA Today does a great job with this baseball kickoff convention and in fact the conference sold out weeks ago. Space is limited and thus the event sold out sooner than ever before. Kudos to fellow NFBC Charter Member Ray Murphy and Brent Hershey for a great job running this conference and to Ron Shandler for keeping this alive and vibrant for 20+ years. It's a fantastic conference every year and really a highlight of my year.

The weather looks perfect again for this time of year with highs between 78-83 each day and sunshine the whole time. A group of us also get together on Sunday after the conference at Duke's to watch football. The Rising Stars All-Star Game is Saturday night with a fantastic group of prospects that includes Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette, Keston Hiura, Brandan Rodgers, Forrest Whitley and Sixto Sanchez. Here's the preview:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-arizona-f ... -292592546

Last year we saw Ronald Acuna Jr. become the league MVP, the Rising Stars Game MVP and the Championship Game MVP as he led Peoria to the league title. Last year's class included Victor Robles, Kyle Tucker, Justus Sheffield, Max Fried and Mitch Keller.

There are always 12-20 NFBC owners at this conference and this year there could be even more. I look forward to seeing everyone shortly and kicking off the baseball season in grand fashion. We are using our electronic draft boards for the AFL drafts, so things should move quickly on Friday. Safe travels everyone and I'll see many of you tomorrow night.

[DOUGHBOYS]

That looks like Greg and his brother in the background of each camera shot for right handed batters of the AFL All Star game.
Should have had an NFBC shirt on instead of the Brewers!

If at the game, you were saved from listening to the MLB Channel broadcast.
Each commentator, bound and determined to talk about each prospect as if they were their own son.
A hard listen.

[Greg Ambrosius]

That looks like Greg and his brother in the background of each camera shot for right handed batters of the AFL All Star game.
Should have had an NFBC shirt on instead of the Brewers!

If at the game, you were saved from listening to the MLB Channel broadcast.
Each commentator, bound and determined to talk about each prospect as if they were their own son.
A hard listen.

During the Rising Stars game a friend texted me a picture and said “Get off my TV!” I swear I didn’t sit there to get on TV. I never saw the first base camera. Besides, I have a face for radio!!! But my brother Mike was on camera too so it was funny.

Let me just say that this Rising Stars Games was one of the best played and most entertaining baseball games I’ve ever attended. It started with a 104 mph fastball, a 103 fastball hit out of the park to straightaway centerfield, great defense, clutch hitting, a go-ahead 3-run homer and a walkoff single. Just a great, great game.

And the AFL Symposium was the best ever. About 20 or so NFBC players were here and NFBC content was involved in every panel. We also had two live DC drafts here and we used those boards on the big screen for a panel I was on on Sunday. Great exposure for our games.

All good. Unfortunately winter awaits me back home. Oh well.

[fwicker]

Greg, I’ve attended the BHQ fall event for years and I want to tell you that your participation in both the panels and the games is a significant bonus! The current insight on ADPs that you offered was something no one else contributed but was seminal information for the attendees. Thanks!

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg, I’ve attended the BHQ fall event for years and I want to tell you that your participation in both the panels and the games is a significant bonus! The current insight on ADPs that you offered was something no one else contributed but was seminal information for the attendees. Thanks!

Thanks Greg. Yeah, it’s interesting that nobody else talks about category targets that you should have before the season. There’s always good information here, but without category target numbers it’s like driving cross country without directions. I think we helped in that last panel with The NFBC targets. And the two drafts we host there each year has also been a great addition to the weekend. Mike, Dean and I enjoy running those.

Great seeing you and the growing list of NFBC members at this conference this year. Now let’s get ready to draft.

[Tom Kessenich]

Vlad Guerrero Jr. at the AFL. Exit velocity of 117 mph for one of his hits.

[Tom Kessenich]

Great to have the NFBC so well represented in Phoenix, including a couple of Main Event champions - John Pausma and Dave Potts.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I love the Arizona Fall League. I love the Arizona Fall League. I love the Arizona Fall League.

I can't say that enough. The weather is perfect. The baseball is crisp and quick and clean. And the AFL Symposium put on by BaseballHQ.com and USA Today brings some of the best in the industry together for four great days. It's a fantastic conference centered around great baseball.

Every year I say that we just saw the next stars of Major League Baseball. Heck, a few years back we sat right next to the on-deck circle when Mike Trout and Bryce Harper played on the same team. How cool was that? They definitely turned into the next stars, but every year it's the same thing with a new crop of talented prospects.

Last year's class included NL Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna Jr. Victor Robles and Francisco Mejia were also part of the 2017 AFL Class.

I think this year's AFL class will produce even more MLB impact players than last year's class. It is stronger at the top and deeper than in 2017. In fact, 12 of MLB.com's Top 100 prospects competed in Arizona this year. Here's my quick thoughts on the top prospects that we saw in the 2018 AFL:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays: He was easily the biggest star of this year's AFL and the reason more than 6,800 fans came to the Fall Stars Game in Surprise on Saturday, Nov. 3rd. He's the No. 1 ranked prospect on MLB.com and Baseball America's 2018 Player of the Year after hitting .381 with 20 homers and 78 RBIs in 95 games across four levels. He finished last year with 37 walks and 38 strikeouts. In the AFL, he hit .351 with no Home Runs, 17 RBIs, two stolen bases and eight Runs in 19 games. In the Fall Stars Game, he hit a ball that had an exit velocity of 117 mph for a double and hustled out an extra base when the left fielder (who was still in shock by that missile) misplayed the relay throw to the shortstop. He torched that ball. He has a great arm at third base but you can see he sometimes likes to show off his arm rather than charge a ball and make an easier play. There's no doubt that he's ready to play in the majors despite being only 19, but look for the Blue Jays to treat Vlad the same way the Braves treated Acuna, which means a late April or May promotion to Toronto is likely. He's going to be a good one and a scout at the AFL Symposium said the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero has the ability to be a Hall of Famer himself. He's that special.

Keston Hiura, 2B, Brewers: Hiura was the AFL's MVP as he led the league with 33 RBIs in 23 games while hitting .323 with five Home Runs, seven Stolen Bases and 19 Runs. He also drove in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th inning in the Championship Game as his Peoria Javelinas won the AFL title 4-2 over Salt River. He is MLB.com's 30th ranked prospect who hit .293-13-43 with 15 Stolen Bases between Class A and Double A last year. He won an NCAA batting title at California Irvine in 2017 when he hit .442 and he's close to the big leagues. The Brewers likely won't rush him right away, but they have a hole at second base and he will likely reach the majors at some point in 2019. Whether it's early enough to be a fantasy factor or not isn't certain yet, but there's a need in Milwaukee for Hiura's bat and they won't be afraid to fast-track him. The bat is legit.

Forrest Whitley, SP, Astros: MLB.com's No. 8 prospect was the starting pitcher for the East All-Stars in the Fall Stars Game and was impressive during two innings. He missed half the season last year and went 0-2 with a 3.76 ERA in eight starts with Double-A Corpus Christi, striking out 34 in 26.1 IP. In the AFL, he went 1-2 with a 2.42 ERA in six starts and struck out 36 in 26 innings with only 7 walks. He finished with a WHIP of 0.98. He has great stuff and a fastball in the high 90s, but the 6'7" right-hander tends to nibble around the corners and can throw a lot of pitches in few innings. One scout said he's a 5-inning pitcher and he showed that in the Fall Stars Game as he worked a clean first inning and then struggled to get out of the second. He likely needs more work in the majors, but the Astros won't be afraid to call him up at some point this season. He could be a real good one.

Peter Alonso, 1B, Mets: There wasn't anyone in the AFL with a better power bat than Alonso, who took a 103 mph fastball from Toronto's Nate Pearson in the Fall Stars Game to straightaway center field for a solo home run. He finished the AFL season with six homers, 27 RBIs, 16 Runs and a .255 average in 27 games. The No. 58 prospect on MLB.com, Alonso hit .285 with 36 home runs and 119 RBI in 136 games between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Las Vegas. The Mets chose not to call him up in September and might keep him in the minors to start this season, but he can hold his own at first base and the power will play anywhere. He seems ready for a promotion, but this is the Mets, so you never know what they will do with Alonso. But I'd be surprised if he doesn't get the call and hits 20+ homers this year.

Nate Pearson, SP, Blue Jays: He made only one appearance in the minors last year after suffering an oblique injury and a broken ulna, but he sure made his presence felt in the first inning of the Fall Stars Game. He struck out the side with a fastball that hit 101 mph, 102, 103 and eventually 104. The 6'6", 245-pound right-hander was a first round pick of Toronto in 2017 after being the JUCO Pitcher of the Year at the College of Central Florida. He started six games in the AFL, going 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA, 23 strikeouts and 13 walks sin 20.1 IP. The Blue Jays will use him as a starter in the minors, but don't be surprised if he converts to a reliever soon and becomes a closer at some point. When you can throw 104 mph, you'll find a role in the late innings.

Taylor Trammell, OF, Reds: MLB.com's 17th ranked prospect is a few years from the majors, but the 21-year-old is an imposing figure at 6'2", 195. He was the 2018 Futures Game MVP and he was the Georgia Class A football offensive player of the year in 2015. He spent the full season with High-A Daytona and hit .277-8-41 in 110 games. Look for him to start 2019 at Double-A before making an impact sometime in 2019. He's one to remember for the future.

Carter Kieboom, SS, Nationals: Just 21, this 6'2", 190-pounder is going to be a good one. He reached Double-A last year, so he could be two years away yet, but he's MLB's 37th ranked prospect who hit .295-1-5-4 in 21 AFL games. He participated in the 2018 Futures Game at Nationals Park and should be there for good in a couple of years.

Lucius Fox, SS, Rays: This kid was impressive every time I saw him. He made three great defensive plays in one inning of the Fall Stars Game and two days later I saw him turn a tough play in shallow left field into a routine over the shoulder catch. He rose to Double-A last year and stole 29 bags in 38 attempts, while scoring 68 runs. he hit .326 in the AFL with one home run, 11 RBIs, seven stolen bases and 18 Runs in 21 games. Keep an eye on this guy.

Others to watch include:

Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers: Could be the top catcher in the minors who is ranked No. 39 by MLB.com. He spent all of 2018 at Double-A Tulsa and hit .268-12-47 with only 33 strikeouts. The glove is ready and now the bat has to develop, but he is going to be a really good one.

Luis Robert, OF, White Sox: He's not ready yet, not after spending all of 2018 at Rookie league and Class A, but you can see the physical talent of this 6'3", 185-pounder. He's the No. 44 prospect at MLB.com who stole 15 bases last year in 19 attempts. He was a bit overmatched in the Fall Stars Game, but he's going to develop into a solid outfielder in time. He is 44th on MLB.com's prospects list.

Christian Pache, OF, Braves: Might have been the best defensive outfielder in the AFL, but the bat has to develop. He hit .279 in the AFL with no homers and 9 RBIs, but he will play a role in Atlanta down the road.

Jon Duplantier, LHP, Diamondbacks: At 6'4", 225 he has a presence on the mound and he brings a good fastball to the plate. He was MLB.com's Pitcher of the Year in 2017, but he missed parts of last season due to a right biceps tendinitis. he was 5-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 67 innings at Double-A and could be a late season addition for Arizona. He is currently 80th on the MLB.com prospects list.

There are other good ones, but these are the ones to keep an eye on for 2019. Enjoy and come to Arizona with us next year!!