Live Chat With Lord Zola RIGHT NOW!!

[Greg Ambrosius]

We always want to have more baseball talk on the Message Boards, so starting this week we'll grab an industry writer each week and give our NFBC folks a week to ask him questions. We call this a Live Chat, but you can ask a question anytime and hopefully you'll get an answer shortly after.

Let's kick off the weekly Live Chats with NFBC Charter Member Todd Zola of Mastersball.com. Todd has been part of the NFBC since its inception in 2004 and he's a three-time winner of the NFBC's $1250 NL Auction League (2008, 2009, 2013). I think he's still in search of that elusive Main Event League title and overall title, but there's still time for that!! Todd is the CEO of Mastersball.com, which is the first industry site with NFBC projections and a Primer. Check out his site for complete baseball coverage and projections.

Todd always has his rankings and projections ready for the launch of the NFBC Draft Champions leagues and this year he had all of that ready for the Cutline Championship as well. He's a big supporter of our Best Ball national contest and he's a die-hard player of our contests as well. He's also on the Executive Board of Tout Wars and many of you will likely see him in New York City this year as Tout Wars and the NFBC will have live drafts and auctions simultaneously at the Stewart Hotel. Should be fun.

Okay, post your questions here and we'll get the Chat rolling. Don't be afraid, Todd won't bite. Any question is a good one. I'll lead off shortly. Thanks Todd for doing this.

Oh, and if you are wondering where he got the nickname Lord Zola, I can fill you in. It was actually at one of our earliest XFL Drafts during the Arizona Fall League, probably around 2007 or 2008, when ESPN's Matthew Berry was announcing the picks. He was having fun with the draft and assigning nicknames to the players being selected and at times even the drafters. Todd, being the numbers guy that he is, was an easy one as Matthew called him Lord Zola early and the nickname stuck. I think he's been Lord Zola ever since. So there you go.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, let's start off with some softballs:

** We both saw Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the Arizona Fall League and we also saw his double in the Rising Stars Game that had an exit velocity of 117 mph. So let's talk in terms of fantasy value: Are you buying on Vlad this year and if so is it before or after his current ADP of 41? What projections do you have for Vlad this year? When can we expect him in the majors? And how long does he stay at third base before moving to the outfield or first base?

** In our AFL Speakers DC League, we are seeing those top Starting Pitchers flying off the board. Those Top 15 SPs went in the first 45 picks and 20 have gone in the first 61 picks. For the Main Event this year, are you diving in early to make sure you get 1-2 200+ K pitchers or are you looking to build your starting staff a different way?

** We're also seeing speed flying off the board early. Jonathan Villar went 77th in this draft and his ADP has risen to 87 in the NFBC. With a target of 139 SBs this year, how are you handling speed in your drafts?

** It's been a slow, slow off-season thus far, but the one move that has moved draft boards is the one that sent Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati. His ADP in the last month is 91 and he went 66th in our AFL League. What our your projections for Puig and where do you think he lands when we get to the live events.

** Predictions: Where to Manny and Bryce land and when does it finally happen?

** Give us some auction numbers. With the need for strikeouts, is the old fashioned $180-$80 split for hitting and pitching still doable in 15-team auctions? Or does it make more sense to spend $90 or more on pitching these days? What's the going rate these days for Trout and Scherzer?

That's a start. Feel free to take them one at a time. Thanks.

[ToddZ]

** We both saw Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the Arizona Fall League and we also saw his double in the Rising Stars Game that had an exit velocity of 117 mph. So let's talk in terms of fantasy value: Are you buying on Vlad this year and if so is it before or after his current ADP of 41? What projections do you have for Vlad this year? When can we expect him in the majors? And how long does he stay at third base before moving to the outfield or first base?

I think 41 is fair, assuming Vlad Jr. only gets the Kris Bryant treatment and "works on his defense" for three weeks or so. I suspect he'll sneak into the 30s if it's apparent this will truly happen.

I have him at .324, which is silly aggressive, but between his bat to ball skills and exit velo, well, the bat is special. Homers should develop, low to mid 20s is doable.

I don't have any shared, and don't expect to as there's serious risk and as will be explained later, I can't afford a mistake with my first three picks.

As for defensive spot, I leave this sort of thing to others. We both love his arm but he didn't have enough action to really get a feel for the rest of his game at the hot corner. He's not as tall as guys like Pujols and Miggy that were moved off the position, but I can see it happening.

[ToddZ]

** In our AFL Speakers DC League, we are seeing those top Starting Pitchers flying off the board. Those Top 15 SPs went in the first 45 picks and 20 have gone in the first 61 picks. For the Main Event this year, are you diving in early to make sure you get 1-2 200+ K pitchers or are you looking to build your starting staff a different way?

I've written about this for the past couple of weeks on Rotowire. While I'm not saying to wait on pitching, it CAN work. It's so bizarre, but the script has flipped where taking three bats early is contrarian.

Here's the key...

Yes, on paper, to get ample strikeouts, one, if not two aces are needed. The party line is there's power available later, and there is. The caveat is those homers come equipped with far fewer runs and RBI than the homers drafted early, let alone fewer steals and a lower average. A guy expected to hit 25 homers drafted in the middle rounds will have at least 30 fewer runs+RBI than a 25 HR guy taken early.

The hitting pool is more top-heavy than recent seasons, and you can't have everything. Taking an ace or two puts you behind in runs and RBI. Everyone assumes they can be made up with sluggers later, but they can't.

This brings us to the old-school, "Bully hitting, manage pitching." It's hard. It takes a buttload of work, not to mention some luck, but pitching can be managed with two-starts, favorable one-start matchups and clever deployment of high-K middle relievers. You may not make up all the lost punch outs, but you can manage to finish high enough to compete since loading up on hitting should put you in the top three (with 4th as the target to win).

Again, I'm not saying to categorically wait on pitching. I'll consider Scherzer at 1.03. I took Luis Severino in the second of out FPAZ draft. What I am saying is I'm not forcing a guy I'm not comfortable with as my first arm in Round 3 or 4. There are plausible pathways to compete taking the first starter in round 5, or even 6.

Yes, the composition of the pitching inventory is different... but so is the hitting pool.

[ToddZ]

** We're also seeing speed flying off the board early. Jonathan Villar went 77th in this draft and his ADP has risen to 87 in the NFBC. With a target of 139 SBs this year, how are you handling speed in your drafts?

As just explained, I've been focusing on hitting in the first four, maybe five rounds. Another advantage to doing so is there are some nice speed sources available, often at a discount, in that range. Whit Merrifield, Starling Marte, Adalberto Mondesi, Tommy Pham and Jean Segura are a few examples out of the first round.

[DOUGHBOYS]

** In our AFL Speakers DC League, we are seeing those top Starting Pitchers flying off the board. Those Top 15 SPs went in the first 45 picks and 20 have gone in the first 61 picks. For the Main Event this year, are you diving in early to make sure you get 1-2 200+ K pitchers or are you looking to build your starting staff a different way?

I've written about this for the past couple of weeks on Rotowire. While I'm not saying to wait on pitching, it CAN work. It's so bizarre, but the script has flipped where taking three bats early is contrarian.

Here's the key...

Yes, on paper, to get ample strikeouts, one, if not two aces are needed. The party line is there's power available later, and there is. The caveat is those homers come equipped with far fewer runs and RBI than the homers drafted early, let alone fewer steals and a lower average. A guy expected to hit 25 homers drafted in the middle rounds will have at least 30 fewer runs+RBI than a 25 HR guy taken early.

The hitting pool is more top-heavy than recent seasons, and you can't have everything. Taking an ace or two puts you behind in runs and RBI. Everyone assumes they can be made up with sluggers later, but they can't.

This brings us to the old-school, "Bully hitting, manage pitching." It's hard. It takes a buttload of work, not to mention some luck, but pitching can be managed with two-starts, favorable one-start matchups and clever deployment of high-K middle relievers. You may not make up all the lost punch outs, but you can manage to finish high enough to compete since loading up on hitting should put you in the top three (with 4th as the target to win).

Again, I'm not saying to categorically wait on pitching. I'll consider Scherzer at 1.03. I took Luis Severino in the second of out FPAZ draft. What I am saying is I'm not forcing a guy I'm not comfortable with as my first arm in Round 3 or 4. There are plausible pathways to compete taking the first starter in round 5, or even 6.

Yes, the composition of the pitching inventory is different... but so is the hitting pool.

I don't want to step on Todd's big toes (No, I've never seen them, just an assumption), but I'd like to add one thing here.
Pitchers are not 'Flying off the Boards'.
It is normal to have a 2-1 hitters/pitchers ratio after rounds three, four, and five,
The misconception that pitchers are getting over drafted comes in the middle of the second round to end of the third round.
A lot of pitchers come off the Board then because the talent matches the hitters left in the pool after the premier hitters have left.
15 pitchers taken with the first 45 picks.
20 pitchers in the first 60 picks.
25 pitchers in the first 75 picks.
They are all the new norms and we're making adjustments to that.

Carry on...

[ToddZ]

** Give us some auction numbers. With the need for strikeouts, is the old fashioned $180-$80 split for hitting and pitching still doable in 15-team auctions? Or does it make more sense to spend $90 or more on pitching these days? What's the going rate these days for Trout and Scherzer?

The NFBC hasn't followed 180/80 for years. It's about 63/37 ($160-$165 for hitting, $95-$100 for pitching). In fact, I know of a little web site that offers 15 team auction numbers using a 63:37 split. Or, they will once more auctions start filling here. Though, I guess after promoting this here, I should probably roll that out this weekend.

I can see both Trout and Mad Max eclipsing the magical $50 level.

[JohnP]

Hey Todd - good chat! Couple questions:

What are some of the new things on your website that you are thinking are pretty cool / helpful?

As more statistical data becomes available - what data are you thinking is super helpful in player evaluation? On the flip side - give us one or two that don't really move the needle for you.

One more - I think you are a Boston guy - New England covers?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Todd...

You are known for being a fellow from Numerville...
When drafting, whether snake or auction, are there still times where you bid an extra dollar or draft a player with your gut, not from your research or Numerish?

I jump on 'projections' and projectionist as being 'safe' or stuck in the middle with their numbers.
Are their times when you love or hate a player so much that you want to go 'out of bounds' ?
For instance, a couple of friends tell you that Nolan Arenado is especially focused on the new year.
Contract year....signing of Murphy...You crunch numbers and find that even though brilliant thus far in his career, Arenado is still trending up in saberspace and your research.
Do you ever want to go out on a true limb and give Arenado a 50/150 year, even though never coming close to achieving those lofty numbers before?

Thanks Todd, always a pleasure....

[Gekko]

Hi Todd,

1. Corbin in the 4th...BUYING OR SELLING?

2. % chance mondesi is demoted to minors prior to June 1st?

3. What do you need to improve on to win the 150K main event grand prize this year?

Thanks!

[ToddZ]

Hey Todd - good chat! Couple questions:

What are some of the new things on your website that you are thinking are pretty cool / helpful?

With respect to draft prep, the main addition is an increased focus on points leagues, including a rankings list customized to Cutline scoring. Everything else is status quo, though I hope to do more profiles than last season.

During the season, there will be an Excel-based spreadsheet where the user can compare players quickly, setting the time frame. I envision using this for FAAB and setting lineups. The impetus was the player comparison tool on the old Rototimes web site.

i began dabbling in recording tutorial videos, showing how these tools work when a few things came up. I hope to re-explore that in a week or so.

As more statistical data becomes available - what data are you thinking is super helpful in player evaluation? On the flip side - give us one or two that don't really move the needle for you.

What we have now is pretty cool. What I'm waiting for is when people much smarter than me have enough data to distinguish between descriptive and predictive. Presently, it's pretty easy to go to Fangraphs, Baseball Savant (Statcast), Brooks Baseball etc., and deconstruct a player's season. We can look at the underlying metrics and explain the outcomes. What we don't know - yet - is which of these indicators can help forecast the future. A guy's high BABIP was supported by an increase in average exit velocity. What we don't know is how likely the guy is to maintain the increase. Data hasn't been collected long enough, but we're getting close.

I'm not sure there are stats that don't move the needle as much as it irks me when stats are misused/misunderstood. Perhaps the best example is batter's platoon splits. Research shows it takes 1000 PA for a LHB facing a LHP to own his splits. That's five seasons of every day play. Platoon players don't get 200 PA a year versus LHP so it takes them much longer. It takes a RHB 2000 PA against a LHP to own his splits -- that's TEN season of full time play. Not only in DFS, but season-long as well, there's too much reliance on platoon splits that aren't predictable.

I guess the pitching application that bugs me most is considering ground ball rate a skill. It's not a skill, it's a trait. Calling it a skill suggests the higher it is, the "better" it is. Inducing grounders are one aspect of a pitcher's indicators. More ground balls go for hits than fly balls, so a groundball guy will carry a higher WHIP. If his infield defense is poor, it could even be higher. The advantage is more double plays and fewer homers.

A fly ball pitcher, in a big park with solid outfield defense is a great setup. You want batters to put the ball in the air. yeah, some will go over the fence, but far more are caught than seeing-eye grounders get through. The advantage is a lower WHIP, but the downside is more homers, hurting ERA.

In both cases, fewer walks and more strikeouts are beneficial (thanks, Lord Obvious). However, give me a high-K, low-BB fly ball guy in a big park any day.

One more - I think you are a Boston guy - New England covers?

Honestly don't know the spread, but so long as they're not giving more than three, yes.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Who hit/allows more homers...JA or Ian Happ?

Who is higher on the draft board in 2020, Aroldis or Matt Chapman?

Who is higher on the draft board in 2020, Aaron or Jordan Hicks?

Better legs, Trea or Tina Turner...never mind, trick question....

Last one, who is being drafted in the first round that, in your mind, has no business being drafted in the first round?

[ToddZ]

Todd...

You are known for being a fellow from Numerville...
When drafting, whether snake or auction, are there still times where you bid an extra dollar or draft a player with your gut, not from your research or Numerish?

If my gut feels the player will play more than the market does, yes, all the Eflin' time. Take the per PA or per IP production from all the different projections and they're pretty dang close. The main difference is playing time. "Zola guys" are almost always players I feel with get more PA or IP than the market.

My limbs are playing time limbs.

I jump on 'projections' and projectionist as being 'safe' or stuck in the middle with their numbers.
Are their times when you love or hate a player so much that you want to go 'out of bounds' ?
For instance, a couple of friends tell you that Nolan Arenado is especially focused on the new year.
Contract year....signing of Murphy...You crunch numbers and find that even though brilliant thus far in his career, Arenado is still trending up in saberspace and your research.
Do you ever want to go out on a true limb and give Arenado a 50/150 year, even though never coming close to achieving those lofty numbers before?

Projection theory dictates middling. It's the correct scientific approach. Maybe it's semantics, but predictions are guesses not as rooted in science. yes, I favor projections over predictions.

That said, even the most scientifically rooted projection algorithms aren't accurate. Conventional valuation is hugely flawed. Granted, some systems are less flawed than others, but the bottom line is when a static stat line, inherent with error is put into a black box fraught with inaccuracy, the output can't be trusted to the seventh decimal place.

Team construction and reading the room trumps quant analysis. i recently did some research on how much multiple-eligibility players can help a team, estimating how that changes the bid price or draft slot. This isn't captured by conventional valuation. Nor is how much more to pay for an injury prone player, since you're not buying/drafting the player, you're drafting the roster spot.

What I won't do is pay more for narrative (like the contract year example). Though, I don't like paying full price on players changing teams, especially when the park factors are extremely different (see Puig question earlier).

[ToddZ]

Hi Todd,

1. Corbin in the 4th...BUYING OR SELLING?

Selling. More late 5th, early 6th, which ain't happening.

2. % chance mondesi is demoted to minors prior to June 1st?

I won't say zero, but I think at this point the answer is slim. if the question is %chance he's dropped in the order to 8th or 9th, I'd say 50/50. For me, that's the bigger concern. Mondesi Jr. is being drafted without that factored in.

3. What do you need to improve on to win the 150K main event grand prize this year?

Thanks!

Considering I'm looking for my first ME league title, and haven't sniffed a cashing spot in a couple years, what don't I need to improve on? Picking out my greatest weaknesses, as alluded to in another question, I'll differ from the market on a few players, likely with respect to playing time. What I can't continue to do is reverse engineer my draft around getting those guys. The best example I can share is last spring, I was all over Manny Margot and Bradley Zimmer. I wasn't alone in that regard, but I was likely the only one passing on early speed and/or early outfielders knowing I would be getting Margot and Zimmer later. On the pitching side, it's fine to have arms for which you're different than the market. It's not OK to draft every eflin' one of them on every eflin' team. Luis Castillo, Zach Godley, Robbie Ray, Sonny Gray -- OK, maybe one or two, but I can't torpedo every team with the same group of arms.

I'll also cop to needing to improve in-season management and have purposely rearranged my Sunday workload to make this happen.

[ToddZ]

Who hit/allows more homers...JA or Ian Happ?

J.A., not really close.

Who is higher on the draft board in 2020, Aroldis or Matt Chapman?

Aroldis, but I love Matt. This time last season, one of my going out on a limb predictions was in a battle of the Oakland Matts, Chapman > Olson.

Who is higher on the draft board in 2020, Aaron or Jordan Hicks?

Jordan

Last one, who is being drafted in the first round that, in your mind, has no business being drafted in the first round?

No business is a bit hyperbolic, but I'll name Alex Bregman and... <<looks around for Vogel>> Ronald Acuna Jr.

If I'm going to knock two out, it's only fair I add two -- Giancarlo Stanton and Charlie Blackmon.

[Greg Ambrosius]

So what are the Red Sox going to do in the late innings? Any chance Kimbrel goes back to Boston?

[ToddZ]

So what are the Red Sox going to do in the late innings? Any chance Kimbrel goes back to Boston?

You don't think Jenrry Mejia is the answer?

At the right price, maybe Kimbrel comes back but I think they acquire their second half closer in July.

Maybe they're waiting until after the Super Bowl to talk to Brady.

[Gekko]

Reynaldo Lopez really came on at the end of the season. Since he is basically free, is he on your acquire list?

True or false...Vlad Jr will be a first round pick next year (likely top half of first round).

Most saves this year in philly? How about White Sox?

Thanks again!

[Greg Ambrosius]

So we had our 5th Rotowire Online Championship draft last night and you can now sort those 12-team ADPs separately at playnfbc.com/adp. So looking at those five drafts, Yasiel Puig's ADP is 71 in that format.

Sorry, it's not a question, but this thread seemed like a good spot to share that info!! Okay, let's try a question then: Is this change of ballpark and scenery really worth Puig going from 127th in our ADPs to 71?

[ToddZ]

Reynaldo Lopez really came on at the end of the season. Since he is basically free, is he on your acquire list?

In the DC format, yes. The strikeouts will still be a little low, so I'd want to be able to pick and choose when to use him. They'll be ample opportunity facing KC and Detroit, especially since Guaranteed Rate Field is actually a pitcher's park, though lopez has a fly ball lean and it's plus for homers. With a 7-man reserve, I want someone I'm likely to play more than I would.

True or false...Vlad Jr will be a first round pick next year (likely top half of first round).

I believe in being honest and I just don't know. That said, I'll say no. He may have the slash line, but lack of steals and run production will be an issue. The talent in the first round is off the charts in today's landscape and it's young enough I don't see it changing.

Most saves this year in philly? How about White Sox?

Another crystal ball question where everyone on this board's opinion is as valid as mine. While it wouldn't shock me if Philly was Kimbrel, I'll say David Robertson. the Phillies wouldn't be the first team to report they won't have a traditional closer, then when push comes to shove, they do.

I think the White Sox would like to build up Herrera, then deal him so I'll say Herrera first half, Colome second -- but again, who knows?

[Ultrarunner]

Assuming no Bryce in WAS in 2019, Soto in round 3, are you taking the plunge?

Which Reds OF provides the most value vs their ADP, Winker, Puig, Kemp, or Schebler?

Which rookie bat not named Vlad has the most impact?

[ToddZ]

So we had our 5th Rotowire Online Championship draft last night and you can now sort those 12-team ADPs separately at playnfbc.com/adp. So looking at those five drafts, Yasiel Puig's ADP is 71 in that format.

Sorry, it's not a question, but this thread seemed like a good spot to share that info!! Okay, let's try a question then: Is this change of ballpark and scenery really worth Puig going from 127th in our ADPs to 71?

On paper, yes, absolutely. the narrative will be when Puig hits one, it'll leave any park so he may not realize the full extent of the park upgrade but still, it should help.

Earlier i mentioned health. The other X factor is how much the Reds allow Puig to run. Players who steal 15 are usually capable of 25, but they're not good enough to run at will, so dumb luck could limit opportunities so he swipes 7 or 8. That's a huge range of plausible outcomes, 7 to 25.

[ToddZ]

Assuming no Bryce in WAS in 2019, Soto in round 3, are you taking the plunge?

in the right circumstance, yes. I think I already have at least once.

Which Reds OF provides the most value vs their ADP, Winker, Puig, Kemp, or Schebler?

As Greg is pointing out, Puig is getting the helium treatment. I'll say Winker. There's latent power upside. That said, Schebler can play CF and to this point, looks better vs. LHP so I wouldn't argue with Schebler.

Which rookie bat not named Vlad has the most impact?

Again, not really my forte so take it with a very small grain of kosher salt...

Jesus Luzardo with a nod to Keston Hiura.

[ToddZ]

Which rookie bat not named Vlad has the most impact?

Can I change my answer to Nick Senzel?

[Gb2715]

Grabbed Corbin as my 1st pitcher in an OC. Great start to hitting but not sold on my pitching. What are your thoughts on Corbin? Can he anchor a staff?