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722 in my league! WOW!

bid 268 in my league....went for 289. Thought 268 would get him easy.....it didn't.....me pissed. Oh well, Ryan could be back in a couple weeks.

Down goes Frasor! Marcum will be the closer, not Frasor.

I sure hope so I drafted BJ RYAN in the 4th round and had high hopes for him but an elbow injury does not sound promising sure hope I am wrong!



He sure was lights out last year, but this year he has walked the ballpark when his WHIP is usually very low and K's very high, does sound more severe than being led to believe.

IM worried about RYAN, HE THROWS SO HARD .It might be really bad.I grabbed FRASOR the 1st week in the Vegas AUCTION, WHAT A BREAK , i made sure to get Marcum today. Frasor went over 400 in the ULTIMATE.I did get the kid in KC for 111 , Soria should close a good couple weeks , plus i have DOTEL, worked out good.

Jason Frasor went for 383 in NY 7 and it was not the team with BJ Ryan who footed the bill. Yikes! If Ryan is back shortly, that's an enormous price to pay for a handful of saves. Seems that if you're hoping to pick up a closer in free agency, you've got to get out your crystal ball and foresee a week in advance which closer is next to hit the DL or go the Brad Lidge route.



Kevin

I NY 1 he went for $15 two weeks ago...based on what he went for this week I am sure that guy knew Dr.Andrews personally and got the look.



Re: the guy who pd $722 for him...can he compete in this thing the whole way? I am a newbie to the league so I am asking...but it seems like he has to pray for perfect health the rest of the way??

BJ has an appointment with Dr James Andrews. Nuff said.

Originally posted by randallo:

I NY 1 he went for $15 two weeks ago...based on what he went for this week I am sure that guy knew Dr.Andrews personally and got the look.



Re: the guy who pd $722 for him...can he compete in this thing the whole way? I am a newbie to the league so I am asking...but it seems like he has to pray for perfect health the rest of the way?? I am assuming he is a newbie too- the answer is no. At some point you have to have some correlation between how much you will bid and how many points you can gain in acquiring that player.



If Frasor is your first closer for 700 bucks terrible bid, because you may gain a point or two at most, if he is your 2nd or third you should gain between 3-5 points in most leagues- definitely worth a couple of hundred bucks, if he is your 4th closer you just broke even because fielding four will seldomly provide any overall point gains within a league.



All of that was under the assumption that Ryan is gone for a good long while and that Frasor will be able to hold the job.



Bigger story here is what this does to Ryan owners- very well could be facing losing your 4th or 5th round pick for a long while and at best losing a little ground in ERA and WHIP and being 300-400 lighter in FAAB to break even with Frasor.



A piece of FAAB advice I would give the new guys-check out the waiver history of the ultimate leagues every week, of the winners only league- some of the best guys in the contest play in those. You have to be careful with comparing leagues in FAAB- but you can get a benchmark and maybe more importantly a tad bit of a head start on a guy.



[ April 15, 2007, 10:29 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

QUOTE]



A piece of FAAB advice I would give the new guys-check out the waiver history of the ultimate leagues every week, of the winners only league- some of the best guys in the contest play in those. You have to be careful with comparing leagues in FAAB- but you can get a benchmark and maybe more importantly a tad bit of a head start on a guy. Yes, I analyzed my need for a 2nd closer all day...



I started at $125, but our highest faab bid 2 weeks earlier was $250. $102 the following week, with most bids in the 50 - 75 dollar range. So in my opinion, a conservative league?



Then I started thinking what if? What if someone bid $250 again? I really need a closer... So i raised my bid to $250.



Wait



Someone may think to bid $251, a dollar over... Or then they may think a 252 dollar bid would top that guy, so I thought, with 7 minutes to go, I'll bid $254... Why, because I had $994 dollars in Faab, thus the 4...



Well, a Faab-ulous bid from my enemy from last year, Joshua Sack, got Frasor for $256.



Chit, and I thought I might be over thinking it!!!

PS:





I did get Marcum for $14 in my supplemental bid so maybe things will work out...???

Being overshadowed is once again the reason to NOT draft a closer early on. Its not worth the risk for a guy that will only pitch 60-70 innings.

I was outbid for Frasor in NY#7 Had a Ryan bid 301 for him and was out bid Again in retrospect happy I was out bid SAVES is 1 category I was able to get Soria to go with my other 2 closers and who knows maybe Ryan will be back in a month. Only reason I bid as high as I did was that he was a 5th RD pick but can not complain too much Got Weathers real late and he is my best closer lol. 66 saves was the median in saves last year, so with or without Ryan if I hit that number or a little bit over it I will be happy with the points generated again IN THAT 1 Category. That 700 bid especially not knowing his true status was ridiculous Its only week #3 LOL



Marty

Chicago League 3 he went for $250, not a bad price to pay and taking a chance that Ryan would miss the rest of the year.



I've just seen on the wires that Ryan is expected to miss 4-6weeks (assuming no setbacks). Does that make Frasor worth the price?

Tough call. I guess a lot of it depends on how the rest of your team looks. All I know is that it is such a long season but it's hard not to spend a couple hundred of that 1,000 FAAB.

Within the NFBC (Main Event and Ultimate), the average winning bid for Frasor was about $360, but there were at least 13 bids above that. Low winning bid was $226 and the high was $722 and in all a there were nine winning bids above $400.



No value judgement on others strategies but WOW!

The curious thing about the Frasor frenzy is that he is no sure thing to succeed in the closer role even if BJ Ryan misses a huge amount of time. Frasor is a decent pitcher, but if he was really that great, why did Toronto shell out the huge bucks to sign Ryan in the first place? Granted, Frasor is worth taking a shot with, but perhaps not at the prices that were paid.



Kevin

In the 2006 NFBC, 70 Saves would have netted 184.5 pts. toward the aggregate score. Out of a possible 330 pts. available in the category, the 184.5 represents approximately 55% of the points available. However, 94 Saves would have netted 301.5 out of a possible 330 points for the category. This represents approximately 91% of the available points for Saves.



This indicates to me that if you have a baseline of 2 Closers capable of generating 70 Saves, it is reasonable to make a solid effort to acquire a 3rd Closer to take advantage of the points available between a 70 Save baseline and whatever Save total you may ultimately acquire. This doesn't take into consideration the Insurance aspect of getting the 3rd closer. In my particular instance, having Saito and Isringhausen, both aspects of this argument comes into play. So, I took a shot and acquired Frasor for $327 FAAB in T2.

Makes sense, but in obtaining the extra S points, what is the opportunity cost of the lost K's and W's?

Frasor first chance in a 2 to 1 game gets the save. Keep it up Jason , i dont want to hear

DOWN GOES FRASOR!!!!!!!

E = mc2

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

E = mc2 Ok, I am not so fast...it took me a few to catch this one, Lance...funny!