Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

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Greg Ambrosius
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Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:58 am

This is NOT something we are considering for our national contests as we don't see the need to inject Third Round Reversal into baseball at this point. As I look at our national contests, I see another steady mix of leaders from every possible draft spot. That includes as many top finishers from the back-end of the draft order as the front-end of the draft order.

But I am interested in trying out Third Round Reversal in baseball to see if there are any effects to switching up the Third Round. Basically, I'd consider trying it in some of our Satellite Leagues, possibly making a separate contest for those interested in 3RR. Maybe we could try some 15-team $125 NFBC Satellite Leagues with 3RR and even some 12-Team $150 Satellite Leagues with 3RR if the demand is there. Maybe one-day we could look at trying this in the single-entry contest we run, to mix it up from the Main Event. It's easy to set up, so we would love to see if there's any demand for this format.

Basically, Third Round Reversal changes one round and then it's just serpentine after that. The draft would start out as:

1-15 in Round 1
15-1 in Round 2
15-1 in Round 3
1-15 in Round 4
Then 15-1, 1-15 in every round after that.

For 12 team leagues, it would be:

1-12 in Round 1
12-1 in Round 2
12-1 in Round 3
1-12 in Round 4
Then 12-1, 1-12 in every round after that.

Again, it gives some extra thought into setting your KDS and likely gives the "perception" of receiving a slightly better draft spot. We are only considering this for Satellite Leagues in 2020 (although it does have some merit in the introduction of the single-entry contest), so let us know your thoughts on this. Again, it's an easy switch to set up, so we'll likely give it a try anyway, but we are interested in your feedback going forward. Thanks for any input.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

Philippe27
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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Philippe27 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:11 am

I think some people may have interest in it but with 3RR in a 15-team I'd always target the back half of the first round. In a 12 though it would make sense because I do think having one of those first few picks is a pretty big advantage.

The dilemma in the Main is always whether those top 2-3 hitters are worth being stuck with a 2nd tier pitcher or not? This year if you wanted Trout or Betts in the 1st, you ended up with Snell, Carrasco, Buehler or Syndergaard as your ace. If on top of that you have to pick at the end of the 3rd round, it's definitely not worth it.

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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by JohnP » Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:00 pm

No for me in all formats. I would put the ideas of dual hitting / pitching player flexibility, single catcher spot (maybe), and removal of random game 163 (not maybe) well ahead of 3rr concept. Baseball is way more random than football I think. Most of the time we can't even get half of the first round right. No need for 3RR. What does the data say? Is there overwhelming evidence that picks 1 and 2 are winning the leagues? I am glad you continue to be open to innovation though! Now let's get Ohtani and Lorenzen programmable as a hitter and pitcher!

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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:31 pm

Philippe27 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:11 am
I think some people may have interest in it but with 3RR in a 15-team I'd always target the back half of the first round.
There you go. While you'd target the back-end each time, not everyone would and thus some owners would get more preferred picks. Not a big deal, but I think people see 3RR differently in the "perception" of the picks they get. For evidence, I think there's a thread that says "STATS' random optimizer SUCKS" or maybe it's "SportsHub's random optimizer SUCKS", something like that. :lol:
Greg Ambrosius
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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:17 pm

JohnP wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:00 pm
No for me in all formats. I would put the ideas of dual hitting / pitching player flexibility, single catcher spot (maybe), and removal of random game 163 (not maybe) well ahead of 3rr concept. Baseball is way more random than football I think. Most of the time we can't even get half of the first round right. No need for 3RR. What does the data say? Is there overwhelming evidence that picks 1 and 2 are winning the leagues? I am glad you continue to be open to innovation though! Now let's get Ohtani and Lorenzen programmable as a hitter and pitcher!
Agreed on all counts.

3RR is not needed in baseball (Greg still in football mode? :lol: )
Super-agree on Ohtani. His team uses him as both a DH and P. We should too.
Diminishing a player's achievements in our hobby is not right.
But, at the least his drafters will have a choice to do one or the other next year.
Half way there!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Bronx Yankees » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:46 pm

No objections if you want to experiment with it in some satellite leagues, but personally I'd have no interest in adopting 3RR more broadly.

I do not see any need for 3RR in baseball, and it sounds like your data supports that year after year.

If I was forced to play in a league with 3RR (because no alternatives were available), I'd be inclined to favor the later Round 1 picks every time.

Just my two cents.

Mike
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Edwards Kings
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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Edwards Kings » Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:15 pm

No interest.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Texas Connection » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:58 pm

Yes. Sign me up. Yes anyone can win from any position. I have argued with people in Vegas about 3RR for years to no avail. My perspective is that 99% of the people take the 1st spot over the 15th spot in KDS every year because there is much more value (sorry Dan) at that spot. The first spot is about a $50 player and the 15th spot is about a $30 player. In the 2nd round, the 16th spot is about a $30 player and the 30th spot is about a $24 player. After 2 rounds, the #1 guy is at $74 in value and the #15 guy is at $60. Why wouldn't we want to try to even this out and do the reversal in the 3rd round. As it sits now, we reward the guy that is already ahead and he gets to increase his advantage. If we were to use 3RR, we will see much more divergence in spots that people want. It makes the game more fair.

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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:39 am

Texas Connection wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:58 pm
Yes. Sign me up. Yes anyone can win from any position. I have argued with people in Vegas about 3RR for years to no avail. My perspective is that 99% of the people take the 1st spot over the 15th spot in KDS every year because there is much more value (sorry Dan) at that spot. The first spot is about a $50 player and the 15th spot is about a $30 player. In the 2nd round, the 16th spot is about a $30 player and the 30th spot is about a $24 player. After 2 rounds, the #1 guy is at $74 in value and the #15 guy is at $60. Why wouldn't we want to try to even this out and do the reversal in the 3rd round. As it sits now, we reward the guy that is already ahead and he gets to increase his advantage. If we were to use 3RR, we will see much more divergence in spots that people want. It makes the game more fair.

Jon Stadtmueller
If you look at the Top 20 right now in the NFBC Main Event, you'll see that 11 of the Top 20 teams drafted 10th through 15th. Only three teams drafted from picks 1 through 6, even though most owners had 1-3 as their top preferences. This data certainly shows that you can win from any spot. In fact, the Top 7 teams all drafted from different spots, so you certainly can win from any spot.

I think 3RR isn't really needed in baseball to make draft spots more equal, although that is the ultimate goal. History has proven that our league champs come from many different spots without 3RR. That wasn't the case in football or basketball, where the top spots constantly dominated before we made the switch.

What 3RR would do in baseball -- which is why we'd like to try it in private satellite leagues -- is to see if owners feel the format is more fair. Not everyone will set their KDS the same, as they do now in straight serpentine. Some folks will want the back of the draft, whereas last year nobody wanted picks 13-15, which is why so many owners got their final preferred spot. In 3RR, I'd say that very few owners would get their last or nearly last preferences. And who knows, maybe we'd learn that 3RR is still even more fair than straight serpentine.

But again, it's just an experiment in private satellite leagues. Glad to see one owner would be up for the experiment. As I said earlier, we'll probably set this up because it is an easy change for us now and if we fill a couple of these leagues it will give us proven data to compare to our other data. Nothing more, nothing less. Thanks Jon for the feedback.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

Philippe27
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Re: Would There Be Interest In NFBC Leagues With 3RR?

Post by Philippe27 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:41 am

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:39 am
Texas Connection wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:58 pm
Yes. Sign me up. Yes anyone can win from any position. I have argued with people in Vegas about 3RR for years to no avail. My perspective is that 99% of the people take the 1st spot over the 15th spot in KDS every year because there is much more value (sorry Dan) at that spot. The first spot is about a $50 player and the 15th spot is about a $30 player. In the 2nd round, the 16th spot is about a $30 player and the 30th spot is about a $24 player. After 2 rounds, the #1 guy is at $74 in value and the #15 guy is at $60. Why wouldn't we want to try to even this out and do the reversal in the 3rd round. As it sits now, we reward the guy that is already ahead and he gets to increase his advantage. If we were to use 3RR, we will see much more divergence in spots that people want. It makes the game more fair.

Jon Stadtmueller
If you look at the Top 20 right now in the NFBC Main Event, you'll see that 11 of the Top 20 teams drafted 10th through 15th. Only three teams drafted from picks 1 through 6, even though most owners had 1-3 as their top preferences. This data certainly shows that you can win from any spot. In fact, the Top 7 teams all drafted from different spots, so you certainly can win from any spot.

I think 3RR isn't really needed in baseball to make draft spots more equal, although that is the ultimate goal. History has proven that our league champs come from many different spots without 3RR. That wasn't the case in football or basketball, where the top spots constantly dominated before we made the switch.

What 3RR would do in baseball -- which is why we'd like to try it in private satellite leagues -- is to see if owners feel the format is more fair. Not everyone will set their KDS the same, as they do now in straight serpentine. Some folks will want the back of the draft, whereas last year nobody wanted picks 13-15, which is why so many owners got their final preferred spot. In 3RR, I'd say that very few owners would get their last or nearly last preferences. And who knows, maybe we'd learn that 3RR is still even more fair than straight serpentine.

But again, it's just an experiment in private satellite leagues. Glad to see one owner would be up for the experiment. As I said earlier, we'll probably set this up because it is an easy change for us now and if we fill a couple of these leagues it will give us proven data to compare to our other data. Nothing more, nothing less. Thanks Jon for the feedback.
One quick note though is you can't really look at preferences to determine what people actually want.

If I draft 3 leagues, I like to have 1 early, 1 middle and 1 late. For the first league I'll leave it 1-15 because I know it's harder to get those early picks. If I get the 12th pick then for the 2nd league I'll leave it as 1-15.

It doesn't mean that I don't want a late pick but I know it's the easiest to get and if I want a late pick for my last league, I can get it.

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