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Sorry I have been AWOL. Lots going on that I will bore you with later. But something is bothering me. I keep hearing from the talking head “experts” on TV about how the NL East has been adding so much talent that this division will be the toughest in baseball. Well….ok…maybe. I see it differently so far.

Washington Nationals – a lot has been said about how the World Series Champions are spending to improve. Like Howie Kendrick. Like Stephen Strasburg. But wait…weren’t they with the Nats in 2019? Now they are back and cost more money. Kendrick $4.0m in 2019, $6.25m guaranteed for 2020. Strasburg was going to be $100m over the next four years, now seven years, $245m.

So the Nats are not adding. They are standing still, but standing still is costing more money. And they need a third baseman (and Rendon will not be replaceable…no matter who they get it will be a net loss, even Donaldson), a first baseman (Kendrick maybe there), and a second baseman (internal advancement of Kieboom maybe). And they have not addressed the bullpen. Losing Harper and Rendon in successive years has to have a negative impact I am guessing.

So the Nats have not improved and their cost structure is further toploaded. Rather the opposite unless there is addition by subtraction.

New York Mets – Another team that has really not added. Losing Wheeler and adding Wacha is probably a net loss. The bullpen will be ostensibly the same (lots of rebound candidates though). Dropping Lagares and adding Marisnick is just swapping platoon players and is at best a marginal change. McNeil and Davis between the OF and 3B, so no real change there.

Be nice for the Mets if Cespedes can come back, but again, more subtraction than addition.

Atlanta Braves – Made their moves last year, especially with the bullpen, which they have basically brought back but more expensively. Down Dallas and up Hamels. I rate that a wash at best and Cole is more expensive (though only a one year commitment). I get why they did it as the vaunted Braves minor league arms have capped their progress and most now look like mid-rotation types. The Braves have some defense/speed types coming up in the OF from the minors, but they already have that in Inciarte (stay healthy please). Brought back cheap but dependable Markakis to be part of the LF platoon, so no change their. I think D’Arnaud will be a better than McCann, but not by much.

So that leaves third base. With Rendon gone to the Angels, Donaldson will reap years/amounts probably out of the Braves comfort level. So barring a trade (Dear Santa, please send me Kris Bryant. Signed, Alex Anthopoulos), you are looking at slider-challenged Riley or “Spunky” Camargo at third.

So, while the Braves certainly have some payroll flexibility, right now I feel they are standing pat everywhere except down a clean-up hitter.

Miami Marlins – The Fish have been getting some love with some of their moves. Aguilara is an upgrade but, while the power will play anywhere, is at best a platoon player on most teams. Villar is an upgrade over Castro on those years where he eats his Wheaties. Not much change anywhere else so any improvement will be measured in the maturation of their young rotation. Offense may be better. Me going from 265 pounds to 260 pounds in better, but not by much.

So it really comes down to….

Philadelphia Phillies – Began spending like drunken sailors last year and kept going this year. Much of their 2020 improvement will be measured by how much Harper is hype or superstar and how much McCutchen can play. This, plus improvement of home-grown Hoskins, Kingery, and Haseley, will go very nicely with 2019 addition Segura and 2020 acquisition Gregorious (really nice add in my opinion) should have the Phillies an offensive juggernaut. Gregorious is a definitely an add.

On pitching, the Phillies rolled the dice on Wheeler. For a guy who is entering his prime age, you get it. The salary he got seems to disregard his injury history in my opinion. Whatever your belief, he does seem to add punch to the top of the Phillies rotation with Nola. They have Arrieta for one more year and it would certainly help if 34 year old Jake tried to re-establish his value by having even a reasonable year. They have a plethora of remaining rotation options in Velasquez, Elfin, Pivetta, Eickhoff, and Irvin, but it still would not surprise me if the Phillies grabbed another veteran arm. Their bullpen appears standing pat with maybe Robertson back healthy.

Anyway, with all the talk about the NL East, but all are either pat or in the red this offseason….except for Philadelphia. Who wins the Division? The Braves of course but it will be tight!

Porcello to the Mets. Maybe Wacha or Porcello will be more than just innings eaters. Good add for the Mets.

So the Nats and the Braves lost out on Donaldson as the Twinkies try to keep pace with the White Sox (who would have thunk it).

The Nats bring in some bargain basement parts. Castro, Cabrera, and Thames (as well as possible Zimmerman). Between 3rd, 2nd, and 1st, these guys plus Kendrick and maybe Kieboom will duke it out for 1/3 of the available PA's in 2020. These are not a bad chinese menu of options but have to be viewed as a net subtraction to what Rendon provided to the mix.

So the NL East should come down to who stays healthy and who has a little luck. Guess that won't be the Mutts who are already retaining their title as the unluckiest franchise in baseball.

The Mets-
I don't believe the Mets are unlucky. The Mets are just the Mets. They make their own luck. Which mostly, turns out bad.
Everybody cringed when Brodie made that deal for Cano. Everybody. Well, everybody except.... the Mets.
A lot of folks cringed when Carlos Beltran was picked to be Manager. How did that turn out?
Each year, they 'study' trading Syndergaard. Each year, he produces less than what is expected.
Syndergaard is the prototypical Met.
The Mets are the Mets.


The Marlins-

I still have no clue what this organization is doing. They have a few young pitchers, but it seems like they just keep treading and retreading water.
They say they are building. But, what are they building?
81-81 doesn't look achievable in the near future.
Derek Jeter will be announced into the Hall of Fame this week.
The moxie shown as a player, not evident as an exec.

The Nationals-

Last year, addition by subtraction worked. Bryce Harper going to a rival team within the division had the press up in arms. Turns out, it was the perfect recipe to win the whole she-bang.
Now, they've lost Rendon.
I don't think Kieboom is an answer for them.
I wish he was. Great name. Wish his parents would have named him Bang or Boom-Boom.
Somehow, I have faith that the Nationals will not miss Rendon as much as everybody expects. Their real power lies in their starting rotation. Scherzer's health, more paramount than a missing bat.

The Phillies-

The Phillies largest addition was by subtraction,,,and then addition.
They fired Gabe Kapler (a joke, right?) (San Francisco, what are you thinking?)and hired Joe Girardi. Sure, they got Wheeler and Gregorius which will help, but Girardi is the figure that could help the Phillies the most. This team has a LOT of talent and Kapler never knew how to capitalize on that talent with his 'analytics'.
Girardi will.
Has there been any player that has had a 'hype or superstar' question asked each year of his career?
Bryce Harper is on his way.
To me, Harper is a darned good player who is a bit of a minus above the neck and in the clubhouse. A little like Reggie Jackson.
And like Jackson, I think if big moments arise, so will Harper's bat.
The Phillies are dangerous.

The Braves-

Like the Dodgers, the Braves Management loves to horde their prospects. To their detriment. They could have traded a lot of young arms while all still looked glossy. Now, the shine is off and the return would not be substantial.
Austin Riley was their third baseman of the future for a month. Now, that thought is less appetizing.
They have a few offensive prospects in the minors, but they don't look like difference makers.
They may have the top first baseman, second baseman, and outfielder in baseball. Freeman, Albies, and Acuna are all that talented.
After those three, it is all question marks offensively.
The Braves need one, possibly two more big bats if they are going to contend.
Last year, lessers like Riley, Duvall, Swanson and others stepped up and helped the team for periods of time. It helped carry them to the division title.
As is, the Braves will have to RELY on that this year.
Reliance on lesser players is shaky at best.

The Division-

I think the NL East will again be hotly contested. All the teams, but the Marlins look poised to contend again. I discount the Mets in that they will find one of their own shoelaces to trip on yet again.
The Braves will have their Big 3 Hitters.
The Nationals will have their Big 3 Starters.
The Phillies will have new Management and a whole lot of talent.
Is it the best division in baseball?
I don't know.
But, it does have a lot of dynamics that will capture baseball fans this year.
Man, I can't wait for this season to start!

Braves signed OF Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $18 million contract. Turns out they didn't need to pay $90+M on a four-year deal to a 34 year old.

Sweet....

Love these one year deals. No risk. Could be lots of reward.
A good get for the Bravos!

Me too, Dan. Swapping Donaldson ($23M) for Ozuna ($18M)...one day it will not work out for the Braves, but for now patching together proven talent who wants to rebuild their value...I will do that all day.

The Mets, Phillies, and Nats just crapped their pants however...