Bang Bang, My Baby Shot My ADP Down

[Yah Mule]

Well, the early results are in and we don't like cheaters. Or we don't like the odds of cheaters replicating their numbers in a square game. I'm not going to get into a discussion about how much the Astros hitters were aided by their sign stealing. There's no way to say and we still have no idea of how extensive their methods were.

After just watching Alex Bregman fall to 21 in my current DC, I decided to look at the ADP's of all the Astro hitters likely to go in the top 23 rounds of drafts and see what kind of ADP attrition they're experiencing.

I checked the ADP's at three intervals. 75 drafts from November through the end of December, keeping in mind that Mike Fiers got the ball rolling in mid November, so the idea was firmly in the minds of most drafters at that point.

The second interval is comprised of 91 drafts from January 20th until the present. MLB confirmed the Astros were cheating on January 13th and Jomboy and other internet sleuths had most of us convinced long before then.

The last interval are just the 30 drafts that have been completed in February, after we've all had a little time to consider all the implications.

Bregman: 8.51 to 13.32 to 13.70. As I mentioned, Bregman fell to 21 today and I think his ADP isn't done falling.

Altuve: 31.96 to 36.07 to 37.20. As we'll see with a few of these guys, other concerns (such as his knee and an abundance of young MI) were already dropping Jose. This additional concern was even more of a buzzkill.

Alvarez: 39.12 to 38.20 to 40.07. Yordan actually bounced up in ADP briefly before taking a slight dip. Nobody seems to think this prodigy needs any help and his ADP variations are unremarkable.

Springer: 41.36 to 42.05 to 43.97. Gradual decline in ADP, but wouldn't be noteworthy under normal circumstances.

Correa: 91.44 to 100.33 to 100.60. Already a risky player from a health standpoint, the initial news chased the fence sitters away.

Brantley: 127.37 to 129.56 to 128.13. Perceptions of Brantley seem largely unchanged.

Gurriel: 115.39 to 130.07 to 132.53. A lot of people were predicting serious regression for Yuli anyway after he bumped his career high in homers from 18 to 31. The .151 home/road OPS differential probably raised a lot of eyebrows and solidified a lot of skepticism.

Tucker: 126.88 to 145.64 to 140.70. Tucker had 72 plate appearances last year and none in 2017. I think people are just worried that Josh Reddick, his $13 million contract and his sub-replacement level offense are going to bleed away too much time from Tucker and I share those concerns.

Edit: Corrected November 20th to January 20th in second time frame examined.

[DOUGHBOYS]

First, great job, Jim. Excellent Stuff.

Second, I believe it takes a person our age to get the Cher-referenced title.

Third, I know it wasn't intended but the Buzzkill inference for Altuve could be literal or figurative!

And last, the top subject line has gone from front page news and stories to the Classified Ads over the last couple of years.
Subject lines like this are swept away by the filling of leagues. That is too bad.