PreMature E-Draftulation League

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:43 am

The First Round of the PreMature E-Draftylation League is in the books.
That's right, while most others are sweating out their finishes in the NFBC, 15 NFBC players are already vying and setting the marks for next years ADP.
This past year, PreMature Drafters nailed 14 of 15 of what would be the final ADP in the first round of NFBC drafts.
Damn good trend setting.
The league is comprised of Overall Main Event winners, Multi Main Event winners, media types, a general crossroads of excellent players from the NFBC participating.
Here are the first round results.......

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

A little analysis...

This is the first time since becoming a household name that Mike Trout has not been one of the first two players selected.
This is due to Trout no longer being the stolen base threat he once was, in becoming a mere four category player.

Jake deGrom slipped down to 11.
Although many think Wins are lucky or unlucky, it's a category. A category that deGrom has not fulfilled consistently.
Call it luck if you want, but many years to some, is called a trend.
His numbers are wonderful, but for the last few years, a mostly three category player.

The three pitchers drafted, Bieber, Cole, and deGrom will be picked in most drafts first round. There seems to be a drop after them.

DJ LeMahieu was the eye opener.
LeMahieu will qualify at three positions and has won another batting title.
But, where he plays next year is in doubt.
And HR and SB numbers are limited.
It'll be fun to see where he is taken in following drafts.
My guess would be third round or so.

While MVP Winner and bust of a first, second, or third overall pick, Christian Yelich, still made the first round, fellow MVP and bust of a first round pick Cody Bellinger did not.

Leave comments here, no e-mails necessary.
I'll be back with second round results later.
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Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:18 am

This draft keeps rolling along. Here are Round Two results....

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

A little analysis...

Holy Mounds, Batman!
A run of Starters reminiscent of Main Events from this past year.
Eight of the last 11 picks being pitchers.

Two players who were drafted NOT based on recency bias were Judge and Buehler.
For 2020, they were candy asses. And their teams treated them that way the whole season.

Of note, three Dodgers were selected this round.

Every player who was drafted in the first round of last years PreMature Draft, have been selected in the first two rounds of this draft.
Except one player.
Nolan Arenado.

21 of the 30 players selected, were also selected in the first two rounds last year.
The partial year just completed has a lot to do with that.

Unrelated to the draft, or maybe not.....
What happens with pitchers arms next year.
Without the playoffs, no pitcher will reach 100 innings this year.
Next year, they're expected to reach 180-200 innings again.
The 'Verducci effect' will be on the plate for every pitcher.
This may be the only year ever, where a pitcher throwing deep into the playoffs could be an advantage for drafting the following year.
Man, 2020 is weird.

Again, leave replies here. No Emails necessary.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Ultrarunner
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by Ultrarunner » Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:10 am

Just LMK when we're starting the Premature DC, Dan!

I'm ready to draft again :lol:

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:55 am

Will do, Dan!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:06 am

And round three....

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

A little analysis...

Robert and Tucker showed flashes of greatness.
They also showed more flashing of immaturity in their approach.
Will they bring back third round numbers. Who knows?

Maeda gets away from the Dodgers treating him like glass and has a wonderful season.
If only Buehler can get away.....

Who does Realmuto sign with?

Who'd of thought that Arenado would be keeping this company in a 2020 draft.....?

As always, leave comments here, no email necessary.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

mbendar16
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by mbendar16 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:36 pm

I could see judge and mondesi flipping rounds. Mondesi always seems to have a monster last month to tease a full season of dominance and the gap over 2nd in steals was significant and could be 20 over a full season.

And for judge, he started off making anyone that took him look like a genius and then showed why he went as late as he did with his injuries.

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:46 am

mbendar16 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:36 pm
I could see judge and mondesi flipping rounds. Mondesi always seems to have a monster last month to tease a full season of dominance and the gap over 2nd in steals was significant and could be 20 over a full season.

And for judge, he started off making anyone that took him look like a genius and then showed why he went as late as he did with his injuries.
I could see the same thing, Mark.
As drafting season progresses, Speed and Saves are more coveted.
Mondesi is a toughie. Long slumps and a propensity for getting hurt offset stolen base goodness.
He'll make his owners tear their hair out.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:00 am

And Round 4....

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

A little analysis...

Hosmer hasn't been this highly thought of for a long time.
Then again, 1B is not what it used to be.....

Albies injury drops him down the list. I suspect he'll move back up in subsequent drafts as drafters 'forgive' him for being hurt....

I didn't know what to think of Keston Hiura last year.
And after watching him this year.....I don't know what to think of Keston Hiura....

Three very young Blue Jay sluggers in this round.
They are going to be a fun team to watch next year....

Will Blake Snell return to being a Cy Young type guy?
Or is he the five inning thrower that he became this year?
Tough.....

Welcome Luke Voit...the new Pete Alonso......

As always, leave comments here...no need to email
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Ultrarunner
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by Ultrarunner » Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:11 am

I targeted Grisham, Yastrzemski, Hilliard, Teoscar and Santander a lot last year. Snagging 4 of those 5 would have made a great OF core in the late teen, early 20s rounds

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:01 am

Rounds 5 and 6....

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

ROUND 5

1.Jesus Luzardo
2. Max Fried
3. Dinelson Lamet
4. Michael Conforto
5. Zach Plesac
6. Stephen Strasburg
7. Austin Meadows
8. Sonny Gray
9. Brandon Lowe
10. Corbin Burnes
11. Mike Clevinger
12. Jeff McNeil
13. Hyun Jin Ryu
14. Sixto Sanchez
15. Josh Hader

Round 6

1. Lance Lynn
2. Liam Hendriks
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Javy Baez
6. Pete Alonso
7. Dominic Smith
8. Jose Berrios
9. Chris Paddack
10. Yoan Moncada
11. Sal Perez
12. Dylan Bundy
13. Mike Yastrzemsi
14. Charlie Blackmon
15. Matt Olson

A little analysis...

From the start of Round 5 to four picks into Round 6, an incredible 15 of 19 players drafted, were pitchers.
The secondary run guaranteed that just about everybody had their second or even third 'Ace'...such as it is.

For the first time since I can remember, four NY Mets offensive players were selected in the first six rounds.

Conforto
McNeil
Alonso
Dom Smith

And still, Jake deGrom cannot buy a Win.....

Javy Baez drops down to the fifth round.
Javy blames no video.
Drafters blame his suckiness.

I thought that Jesus Luzardo would lose a little luster.
He has proven that he rarely sees the sixth inning.
Still, the stuff is tantalyzing.
Walker Buehler-Lite

Sixto Sanchez makes the top 6 rounds ....
If his first name were Jose or Juan, would he have?

Mike Clevinger also makes the list.
Last year, he went in the second round, while fellow Covid buster, Zach Plesac, went in the 20's.
This year, together in the fifth round. How sweet.
Clevinger should have dropped from second round status.
His largest skill this year? Missing Starts.

Speaking of Clevinger, he started the year with the Indians.
We are now in Round 10 of the PreMature Draft.
Not only Clevinger was taken, but so was the whole Cleveland staff.
Bieber, Carrasco, Plesac, McKenzie, Civale.
While other teams like the Braves and Dodgers talk about the staffs they will have, the Indians keep showing that, five deep, they are the best every year.

A couple of players noticeably missing from the top six rounds....

Giancarlo Stanton....Drafters are just tired of your act

JD Martinez...Like Baez, JD blames no video. And again, drafters blame suckiness.

Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen...There was a general distrust of all Closers.
Only two (Hader and Hendriks) were taken in the first six rounds.
Chapman and Jansen are on their way down the totem pole...

Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant....They should be Stars. They're not.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

rkulaski
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by rkulaski » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:49 pm

Dan,

A certain someone wouldn’t have drafted Stanton in the 7th if this were a ME league (his sons dig the long ball and therefore dig Stanton so they had some pull). I’ll also once again state that what are the odds he gets hurt playing DH (don’t answer that). And the rotogut in me is telling me that he will be motivated than ever this year to stay healthy to prove it to his critics, the fans, and mostly to himself.

Some more thoughts:

Due to the absurd uncertainty at closer, few have been picked to this point (9 only) so that will move hitter and starter up the board.

It’s painful every year doing this draft and knowing that some breakout player you nabbed after round 20 this past season will require a pick inside the first 6 rounds this year to roster. I’m talking about Teoscar, Yaz, Pesac, and KL to name a few.

Several players that I’ve tried to grab at a discount haven’t quite made it back to me... a common lament when you’re picking at one end of the draft. I’ll hopefully have better luck in the DCs.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:22 pm

We can will ourselves to not smoke. Or to not eat. Or not drink as much.
We have that within our power.
Stanton cannot will himself not to get hurt. He can be as determined as all get out as he has the past couple of seasons. But, it's just hope, not will.
Simply, he does not have a baseball players body.
His muscles are as tight as piano strings. He will always have muscle problems playing a sport that really doesn't need muscles coming out of their ears.
I do respect that he does not go the steroid route as Nellie Cruz has done (Cruz has been caught, but mostly NOT been caught)
He can be healthy for a year. He has shown that.
But, it is more likely that he will not. He has shown that.
Simply, Stanton, if wanting to stay healthy for baseball, should do the opposite of us normal folks.
Go smoke, go eat, and go drink.
The Babe did all three and seldom hit the DL.(For those that take that comment too seriously,... yes I know the Babe played in a different time when most players did not look like professional wrestlers) :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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KJ Duke
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by KJ Duke » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:28 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:22 pm
We can will ourselves to not smoke. Or to not eat. Or not drink as much.
We have that within our power.
Stanton cannot will himself not to get hurt. He can be as determined as all get out as he has the past couple of seasons. But, it's just hope, not will.
Simply, he does not have a baseball players body.
His muscles are as tight as piano strings. He will always have muscle problems playing a sport that really doesn't need muscles coming out of their ears.
I do respect that he does not go the steroid route as Nellie Cruz has done (Cruz has been caught, but mostly NOT been caught)
He can be healthy for a year. He has shown that.
But, it is more likely that he will not. He has shown that.
Simply, Stanton, if wanting to stay healthy for baseball, should do the opposite of us normal folks.
Go smoke, go eat, and go drink.
The Babe did all three and seldom hit the DL.(For those that take that comment too seriously,... yes I know the Babe played in a different time when most players did not look like professional wrestlers) :D
Brandon Lowe probably hits the ball just about as hard despite looking like he could be a math teacher. Maybe Stanton could try his routine. Probably not.

rkulaski
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by rkulaski » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:52 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:22 pm
We can will ourselves to not smoke. Or to not eat. Or not drink as much.
We have that within our power.
Stanton cannot will himself not to get hurt. He can be as determined as all get out as he has the past couple of seasons. But, it's just hope, not will.
Simply, he does not have a baseball players body.
His muscles are as tight as piano strings. He will always have muscle problems playing a sport that really doesn't need muscles coming out of their ears.
I do respect that he does not go the steroid route as Nellie Cruz has done (Cruz has been caught, but mostly NOT been caught)
He can be healthy for a year. He has shown that.
But, it is more likely that he will not. He has shown that.
Simply, Stanton, if wanting to stay healthy for baseball, should do the opposite of us normal folks.
Go smoke, go eat, and go drink.
The Babe did all three and seldom hit the DL.(For those that take that comment too seriously,... yes I know the Babe played in a different time when most players did not look like professional wrestlers) :D
I’ll respond to this one....

None of us can will ourselves not to get hurt, Dan. All any of us can do is hope. Stanton isn’t in a boat all alone here. But there are adjustments he can make and he has an off season to make them. Why can’t he focus more on flexibility this off season and improve the likelihood that he stays healthy? I’ve heard multiple people now suggest that he doesn’t have a baseball player’s body. What exactly constitutes a baseball player’s body? Did John Kruk, Bartolo Colon, Kirby Puckett, Randy Johnson, Greg Luzinski have a baseball player’s body? Is it Ken Griffey Jr ? Was he a paragon of health?

His muscles are too tight and he will always have muscle problems. I’ve recently heard this one a lot. Would you have said this after nearly 1400 PAs in 2017 and 2018? Where would you have drafted Stanton in 2019 coming off a 38 HR season knowing he would be playing another 81g in Yankee stadium. In drafts leading up to opening day 2019, were you avoiding Stanton at all costs in the first few rounds because of his general physique or concern of his lack of a baseball body? I ask sincerely as I remember there were already some mild concerns regarding Stanton’s ability to stay healthy. But I also recall that these concerns were mitigated because of the types of injuries that he had sustained up to that point. Most if not all weren’t going to let him fall far in drafts.

Now 2 years has changed everything and it most certainly should. And we, in the world of fantasy sports, are very reactive. It’s easy to give up on a player like Stanton, avoid the risk all together, and rationalize that power is no longer a scarce resource to find in the draft and we can get “power” from any round in the draft. So many of us drafters will have no interest in Stanton this year. You’ll hear the phrase “well I might have a share of two just in case.” Considering the last two years, I completely understand the lack of interest. I am usually one of the most conservative drafters when it comes to drafting players with a checkered injury history. But I pick my spots and usually pick them well. Matt Olson was an afterthought in 2019. He could be drafted after round 20. He had a hamate injury and we all knew that hamate injuries reduce power. Or did we? Is that what all of the research said or is it what we hypothesized? I didn’t buy into any of that and I pounced on Olson after round 20.

I know I’ll be in the minority but I don’t believe that Stanton’s lack of a baseball body (whatever that is) is ultimately going to be this 30 year olds downfall. From what I’ve read, this guy is as disappointed and upset more than anyone over his performance from these last 2 years. Call me gullible, but my gut says adjustments will be made and we will still see a few more monster seasons from Stanton. Would it shock me if his best days are behind him and I eat crow for this post? Not all all. I eaten plenty of it before. But I don’t straddle both sides of the fence and I think we are way too quick to write off players in this hobby of ours.

(Side note: i think his adp will settle closer to round 10 than round 7 (like this draft) and rightfully so)
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by rkulaski » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:56 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:22 pm
We can will ourselves to not smoke. Or to not eat. Or not drink as much.
We have that within our power.
Stanton cannot will himself not to get hurt. He can be as determined as all get out as he has the past couple of seasons. But, it's just hope, not will.
Simply, he does not have a baseball players body.
His muscles are as tight as piano strings. He will always have muscle problems playing a sport that really doesn't need muscles coming out of their ears.
I do respect that he does not go the steroid route as Nellie Cruz has done (Cruz has been caught, but mostly NOT been caught)
He can be healthy for a year. He has shown that.
But, it is more likely that he will not. He has shown that.
Simply, Stanton, if wanting to stay healthy for baseball, should do the opposite of us normal folks.
Go smoke, go eat, and go drink.
The Babe did all three and seldom hit the DL.(For those that take that comment too seriously,... yes I know the Babe played in a different time when most players did not look like professional wrestlers) :D
I’ll respond to this one....

None of us can will ourselves not to get hurt, Dan. All any of us can do is hope. Stanton isn’t in a boat all alone here. But there are adjustments he can make and he has an off season to make them. Why can’t he focus more on flexibility this off season and improve the likelihood that he stays healthy? I’ve heard multiple people now suggest that he doesn’t have a baseball player’s body. What exactly constitutes a baseball player’s body? Did John Kruk, Bartolo Colon, Kirby Puckett, Randy Johnson, Greg Luzinski have a baseball player’s body? Is it Ken Griffey Jr ? Was he a paragon of health?

His muscles are too tight and he will always have muscle problems. I’ve recently heard this one a lot. Would you have said this after nearly 1400 PAs in 2017 and 2018? Where would you have drafted Stanton in 2019 coming off a 38 HR season knowing he would be playing another 81g in Yankee stadium. In drafts leading up to opening day 2019, were you avoiding Stanton at all costs in the first few rounds because of his general physique or concern of his lack of a baseball body? I ask sincerely as I remember there were already some mild concerns regarding Stanton’s ability to stay healthy. But I also recall that these concerns were mitigated because of the types of injuries that he had sustained up to that point. Most if not all weren’t going to let him fall far in drafts.

Now 2 years has changed everything and it most certainly should. And we, in the world of fantasy sports, are very reactive. It’s easy to give up on a player like Stanton, avoid the risk all together, and rationalize that power is no longer a scarce resource to find in the draft and we can get “power” from any round in the draft. So many of us drafters will have no interest in Stanton this year. You’ll hear the phrase “well I might have a share of two just in case.” Considering the last two years, I completely understand the lack of interest. I am usually one of the most conservative drafters when it comes to drafting players with a checkered injury history. But I pick my spots and usually pick them well. Matt Olson was an afterthought in 2019. He could be drafted after round 20. He had a hamate injury and we all knew that hamate injuries reduce power. Or did we? Is that what all of the research said or is it what we hypothesized? I didn’t buy into any of that and I pounced on Olson after round 20.

I know I’ll be in the minority but I don’t believe that Stanton’s lack of a baseball body (whatever that is) is ultimately going to be this 30 year olds downfall. From what I’ve read, this guy is as disappointed and upset more than anyone over his performance from these last 2 years. Call me gullible, but my gut says adjustments will be made and we will still see a few more monster seasons from Stanton. Would it shock me if his best days are behind him and I eat crow for this post? Not all all. I’ve eaten plenty of it before. But I don’t straddle both sides of the fence and I think we are way too quick to write off players in this hobby of ours.

(Side note: i think his adp will settle closer to round 10 than round 7 (like this draft) and rightfully so)
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:24 pm

You sure protect 'your' players, Rich! Good for you.

If you'll notice, all the players mentioned with different bodies..fat, thin, or just right like Griffey, were not slaves to the DL.
Truth be told, Stanton said he went through flexibility exercises to reduce injury last year.....and a couple of years earlier.
Google it or go back on RotoNews.
We all know how that turned out for Stanton. He is what he is.
He also had problems making the field off and on leading up to those two golden years you spoke of.
So yes, folks were still leary of injury even after those two years.

Guys like Stanton, Tulo, and Buxton drive us crazy.
We see the skills. We see the talent.
Unfortunately, their overriding skill is that of getting hurt.
Stanton's body is tighter than steel cable supporting a bridge.
Tulo twisted his body like a pretzel in 'having' to play shortstop.
Buxton never looks where he is going. Not good for a CF.
There are reasons for most of the injuries from most players.
(Bad luck also seems to follow injury ridden players. I believe each of these players missed time after getting HBP.
Either 'Murphys Law' or the 'When it Rains, it pours' proverbs. )
We take the liklihood of yet another injury and weigh it against the odds of staying healthy each year. Then decide whether they're draftable.

It's clear you're sold on Stanton staying healthy for the upcoming year, Rich
I can only wish you luck with that.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

rkulaski
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by rkulaski » Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:23 pm

I guess you could call it protecting my own :D but I’m also playing some devil’s advocate.

One note regarding Griffey and the perfect body.. maybe he wasn’t a “slave” to the DL but his body obviously failed him later on. Bartolo Colon’s body never really did. So my point was do we ever really know if a player’s body is going to fail them or not? Griffey had a “baseball body” and Colon didn’t. One’s body succumbed to injury. One’s did not.

I do have to concede that maybe the Stantons, Judges, and Yandi Diaz’ of the world won’t ever be able to stay healthy. Is it because their muscles are wound too tight or something to that effect? Maybe (how’s that for a profound answer?). And at some point, players cross that threshold where they just never can return to that level of greatness, even if age would appear to be in their favor. We see it happen in football all of the time. Tulo is a great example too. And yes, Stanton has tried flexibility and a mobility regiment before including this past off season. It didn’t work. Has he tried everything yet ? Are there any adjustments that can still be made by his trainers and supporting cast? Maybe he’s completely out of options to fix his soft tissue injuries. My brain tells me that at his age, with his supporting cast, I just don’t think this is end yet and his physique isn’t going to be his downfall yet.

You said it well though in your previous post. We must weigh the odds of another injury each year and then decide whether a player is draftable. In this particular draft with its price point, I took on the injury-prone Stanton. And next season, when mighty Giancarlo comes to bat, my sons and I will stop what we are doing and stare at the tv screen. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll get to see a towering 500’ HR that clears the bases. And we’ll cheer like crazy because so few can hit a ball as far as him. Yes, we dig the long ball. And I’ll say, “he’s on my fantasy team!” On the flip side, if he’s hurt, and not playing on a given day, one of my sons will ask, “when’s Stanton coming to bat?” And I’ll respond, “he’s not in the lineup today. He hurt his leg.” And they will say, “What! Again?”

Thank you for the good luck sentiment, Dan. I wish you the same with Strasburg.

(yeah your team looks pretty good but it isn’t perfect. Your tombstone epitaph remains safe for now).
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:11 pm

rkulaski wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:23 pm

(yeah your team looks pretty good but it isn’t perfect. Your tombstone epitaph remains safe for now).
Thanks for the sentiment...I'll keep trying ! :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:28 pm

By the way, Rich, I do not agree with something previously stated.
I believe you took Stanton right about where he'll be drafted in subsequent drafts.
Where you drafted him is right about where the risk meets the reward.
If trusting Stanton's health, it's a very good pick.
I believe others will feel the same as you do.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

rkulaski
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by rkulaski » Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:39 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:11 pm
rkulaski wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:23 pm

(yeah your team looks pretty good but it isn’t perfect. Your tombstone epitaph remains safe for now).
Thanks for the sentiment...I'll keep trying ! :D
Hah! I thought you might get a kick out of that.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:12 am

What the Heck. Let's do one more round of the PreMature League....

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

ROUND 5

1.Jesus Luzardo
2. Max Fried
3. Dinelson Lamet
4. Michael Conforto
5. Zach Plesac
6. Stephen Strasburg
7. Austin Meadows
8. Sonny Gray
9. Brandon Lowe
10. Corbin Burnes
11. Mike Clevinger
12. Jeff McNeil
13. Hyun Jin Ryu
14. Sixto Sanchez
15. Josh Hader

Round 6

1. Lance Lynn
2. Liam Hendriks
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Javy Baez
6. Pete Alonso
7. Dominic Smith
8. Jose Berrios
9. Chris Paddack
10. Yoan Moncada
11. Sal Perez
12. Dylan Bundy
13. Mike Yastrzemsi
14. Charlie Blackmon
15. Matt Olson

Round 7

1. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Eugenio Suarez
3. Clint Frazier
4. Kyle Hendricks
5. Framber Valdez
6. Ketel Marte
7. Nelson Cruz
8. JD Martinez
9. Max Muncy
10. Madison Bumgarner
11. Aroldis Chapman
12. Nick Castellanos
13. Pablo Lopez
14. Dansby Swanson
15. Kyle Lewis

A little analysis.....

Rich and I have talked your ear off about Giancarlo.
Either you have faith he will not get hurt, or you don't....

'Experts' like to say that year after year, Nelly Cruz is underdrafted.
Sounds wonderful. Makes them seem smart.
Of course, there is the whole U only thing.
But more importantly, if caught with steroids, his owners are left holding a high round bag.
Cruz is one of those 20-20 vision picks AFTER the year.
Every time I'm in a draft with an expert, I don't see them selecting Cruz.
But AFTER the year, they rale about him being under drafted.
This why....EXPERTS ARE NEVER WRONG!

Marte, JD, and Muncy, take a dive....

Hendricks, Swanson, Pablo Lopez, and Kyle Lewis....Welcome to higher rounderage

MadBum...What are you doing here?

Framber? Are you THAT good?

One of these days, hopefully soon, the PreMature League, as it is, will only be a memory.
Fantasy Baseball, especially at higher levels, is screaming for six months of drafting followed by six months of a season.
Heck, somebody has started an 'Anonymous League' to be played out as a DC on the NFBC site.
The interest for early drafting is certainly there.
When the NFBC started, I don't believe the draft rooms for Satelite drafts opened till after the New Year.
Can you imagine?
Years from now, we'll be just as surprised that the draft room for next year, was not opened after the previous year concluded.
We're headed that way and should get there soon.......I hope.



EDIT-
One more thing of note....

JD Martinez is listed on the NFBC site as playing six games in the OF, making him 'U' only.
Martinez went from left field to right field in one game, so some other sites have him with seven games in the outfield.
This is an NFBC League so we went on the assumption that 'U' only is correct.
More clarification will probably be needed later.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Greg Ambrosius
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:17 am

So Randy Arozarena went 183th -- Round 13, Pick 3 -- in the PreMature E-Draftulation League, which started before the playoffs began. After hitting 7 Home Runs so far and leading the Rays to the World Series, where does he go now? And remember, he still has Rookie status in 2021.

Just an amazing performance from this guy, so where would you take him in upcoming NFBC Draft Champions Leagues?
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:11 pm

In the DC style PreMature League Draft with the playoffs in the background.....

Arozarena climbed to the second pick in the sixth round.....
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Yah Mule
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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by Yah Mule » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:26 pm

I think it's cool and very on brand that the American League Champs didn't have a player selected until pick 49.

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Re: PreMature E-Draftulation League

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:39 pm

Yah Mule wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:26 pm
I think it's cool and very on brand that the American League Champs didn't have a player selected until pick 49.
It is very cool on that level.
Tampa, like the Dodgers, plays an interchangeable parts game.
Chris Taylor equals Mike Brousseau who equals Kike Hernandez who equals, well, you get the picture.

'Only' 14 Rays were drafted. Mostly pitchers.
I say 'only' because 15 is the average from each team and we would expect more players from a World Series team.
Tampa and the Dodgers have embraced the play by committee approach.
But for fantasy, it sure is less appetizing.
For us fantasy players, we like the Braves approach of throwing out mostly the same lineup every day and letting their Starters work more deeply into games.

It ought to be interesting to see if teams try to emulate the Dodgers and Rays in the interchangeable parts approach in the coming season.
For Tampa, superior scouting within their system and excellent trades have made it possible.
For the Dodgers, mostly the same with cash backing any bad plays.
In my opinion, it'll be tough to copy these two teams.
Most teams have problems not having holes in their lineups, let alone an entire roster.
Which may be good for us in fantasy baseball. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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