NFBC Rank & ADP Influence

[mdecav]

Greg,

I know I've asked this question to you over beers at Mustang Harry's in NYC, but how again is pre-ADP "Rank" determined?

I'm noticing that however players are ranked before ADP is established - whoever makes those decisions - very highly influences how owners are picking players. For example, for whatever odd (my opinion) reason, Hader and Hendriks are 30 and 32, which for closers in a 5x5 format is a very high premium and in the DCs I've done so far, everyone has followed suit with getting these guys in the late 2nd, early 3rd rounds, and all other closers have followed similarly. Closers haven't gone this high in the past.

There are a few ways of doing the math on these types of valuations - some mathematically incorrect IMO - where this high closer ADP is justified, but my main question/concern is how Rank is done.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,

I know I've asked this question to you over beers at Mustang Harry's in NYC, but how again is pre-ADP "Rank" determined?

I'm noticing that however players are ranked before ADP is established - whoever makes those decisions - very highly influences how owners are picking players. For example, for whatever odd (my opinion) reason, Hader and Hendriks are 30 and 32, which for closers in a 5x5 format is a very high premium and in the DCs I've done so far, everyone has followed suit with getting these guys in the late 2nd, early 3rd rounds, and all other closers have followed similarly. Closers haven't gone this high in the past.

There are a few ways of doing the math on these types of valuations - some mathematically incorrect IMO - where this high closer ADP is justified, but my main question/concern is how Rank is done.

I think you give the pre-rankers too much credit. If we put Hader at 100, do you think he'd last that long? I don't.

I put the pre-rankings together thanks to results we had from the Premature Edraftulation league, one industry league and one other early draft I saw. The idea is just to get players in an area where they will be likely be drafted because after the first five drafts are done the rankings change to yearly ADPs. So if Hader is high right now in the draft room, it's because that's what his ADP is showing.

So yes, Hader and Hendricks were picked at 30 and 32 because I saw instances that they were going that high. Actually, Hendricks was going higher than Hader, but I let my bias get in the way of how I ranked them!! But the answer is that I had multiple draft results to go off of and then I used data and my own judgements to rank players through 800+. I wanted to make sure we didn't have any retired players, out-for-the-year players or Class A players in the Top 750 because that would affect DC drafts.

The beauty of our draft room is that the pre-draft rankings are updated by ADPs throughout the drafting season. I've been on other sites where those pre-draft rankings never change and when you draft in March you're flabbergasted by the player default list. That doesn't happen here. Enjoy and don't wait to get Hader this year!!! I'm not the only one saying that.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just a little add....
The high cost of Closers, beyond Hader and Hendrik, comes mostly from the updating of DC's themselves.
In the PreMature E-draftulation League, the third Closer to come off the Board was Raisel Iglesias in the sixth round.

[mdecav]

The Hader/Hendriks ranks have had a cascading effect on other closers. Here are the top 8 closer picks in the two 400 DCs:

Draft 1: 26, 29, 44, 45, 47, 53, 63, 76
Draft 2: 32, 33, 36, 38, 53, 59, 60, 61

[mdecav]

I think you give the pre-rankers too much credit. If we put Hader at 100, do you think he'd last that long? I don't.

I put the pre-rankings together thanks to results we had from the Premature Edraftulation league, one industry league and one other early draft I saw. The idea is just to get players in an area where they will be likely be drafted because after the first five drafts are done the rankings change to yearly ADPs. So if Hader is high right now in the draft room, it's because that's what his ADP is showing.

If Hader was ranked 100, he would not be going 30th or somewhere around there.

On mobile ADP is not showing, and this is a league we started yesterday. You only see the Rank, and the Rank showing is the same numbers as they were before five drafts finished, so you have a tech issue here.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I will have IT look at the player default list in the draft room. They should be updating with yearly ADPs now that we have more than 5 finished drafts.

[Brian Jenner]

The Hader/Hendriks ranks have had a cascading effect on other closers.

If Hader was ranked 100, he would not be going 30th or somewhere around there.

You might be projecting your beliefs onto the drafting population as a whole. Scherzer, who is the #1 ranked SP at #9 (excluding Ohtani), is going in the 2nd round in actual DC drafts after Burnes, Cole, and Buehler who are all ranked lower than him.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I will have IT look at the player default list in the draft room. They should be updating with yearly ADPs now that we have more than 5 finished drafts.

The player default list should now be updating with current yearly ADPs of finished drafts.

[mdecav]

The Hader/Hendriks ranks have had a cascading effect on other closers.

If Hader was ranked 100, he would not be going 30th or somewhere around there.

You might be projecting your beliefs onto the drafting population as a whole. Scherzer, who is the #1 ranked SP at #9 (excluding Ohtani), is going in the 2nd round in actual DC drafts after Burnes, Cole, and Buehler who are all ranked lower than him.

Put my beliefs aside for a moment. As an example if you look at the top two closer March ADPs the last three seasons, they were approx:

2021: Hendriks & Hader, 57 and 59
2020: Hader & Yates, 61 and 81
2019: Diaz & Jansen, 47 and 74

There are SIX closers going 73 or earlier this offseason. There's the argument(?) that since saves are being more dispersed that established closers are more valuable, but the counterpoint is that set up guys with great ratios are also more valuable because you could wait on saves. There has been a general trend of more-dispersed saves but that trend didn't just begin in 2021.

[Brian Jenner]

The Hader/Hendriks ranks have had a cascading effect on other closers.

If Hader was ranked 100, he would not be going 30th or somewhere around there.

You might be projecting your beliefs onto the drafting population as a whole. Scherzer, who is the #1 ranked SP at #9 (excluding Ohtani), is going in the 2nd round in actual DC drafts after Burnes, Cole, and Buehler who are all ranked lower than him.

Put my beliefs aside for a moment. As an example if you look at the top two closer March ADPs the last three seasons, they were approx:

2021: Hendriks & Hader, 57 and 59
2020: Hader & Yates, 61 and 81
2019: Diaz & Jansen, 47 and 74

There are SIX closers going 73 or earlier this offseason. There's the argument(?) that since saves are being more dispersed that established closers are more valuable, but the counterpoint is that set up guys with great ratios are also more valuable because you could wait on saves. There has been a general trend of more-dispersed saves but that trend didn't just begin in 2021.

I think by March, the closer ADPs will look a lot different than they do now as more roles are settled. I don't have Nov/Dec ADP data from previous seasons but I'd assume closers usually go higher this early in the offseason, especially in DCs.

[mdecav]

Here is what I have in my first DCs each year:

2021, Hader & Hendriks: 56 & 61
2020, Hader & Osuna: 71 & 94
2019, Diaz & Treinen: 48 & 65

[DOUGHBOYS]

Here is what I have in my first DCs each year:

2021, Hader & Hendriks: 56 & 61
2020, Hader & Osuna: 71 & 94
2019, Diaz & Treinen: 48 & 65

Wow.
I have hardly ever seen Hader and Hendriks taken that low in drafts.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Wait...according to ADP, the lowest Hendiks has been drafted is 52.

[mdecav]

Here is what I have in my first DCs each year:

2021, Hader & Hendriks: 56 & 61
2020, Hader & Osuna: 71 & 94
2019, Diaz & Treinen: 48 & 65

Wow.
I have hardly ever seen Hader and Hendriks taken that low in drafts.

Those were the approx ADPs at the time I drafted in November of those offseasons, not the picks themselves. And they were the top two closer picks.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Doesn't that imply that default is doing its job?....
Moving Hader and Hendriks to where they have been going in a majority of drafts...

[DOUGHBOYS]

If Greg ranked them that low at the beginning, I don't know the source used.
In the PreMature League, Hendriks went 33, Hader 34.

[mdecav]

Doesn't that imply that default is doing its job?....
Moving Hader and Hendriks to where they have been going in a majority of drafts...

Well, no.

Owners are taking the closers so early BECAUSE the first two were ranked 30 & 32 - with the other closers following shortly thereafter - and then add the IT issue that ADPs were not displayed after the fifth completed draft in Draft Rooms amplified it.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Doesn't that imply that default is doing its job?....
Moving Hader and Hendriks to where they have been going in a majority of drafts...

Well, no.

Owners are taking the closers so early BECAUSE the first two were ranked 30 & 32 - with the other closers following shortly thereafter - and then add the IT issue that ADPs were not displayed after the fifth completed draft in Draft Rooms amplified it.

Ahh...I see where you're going...
I have heard from folks that podcasters are imploring drafters to secure their Closers early too.
Time of the season being a part of the puzzle as well.
I believe there are a lot of factors at work here.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Doesn't that imply that default is doing its job?....
Moving Hader and Hendriks to where they have been going in a majority of drafts...

Well, no.

Owners are taking the closers so early BECAUSE the first two were ranked 30 & 32 - with the other closers following shortly thereafter - and then add the IT issue that ADPs were not displayed after the fifth completed draft in Draft Rooms amplified it.

Oh boy. You really think NFBC early drafters are going off OUR PLAYER DEFAULT LIST!!! So all of the early drafters took Hader and Hendricks in the third round because of our player default list? As Dan said, they went 33rd and 34th in the first Premature league and were already going in the third round. But I was the one to influence this trend? That's crazy.

NFBC drafters will take their closers where they want and in DCs it's obvious that the top two closers will go early this year. But whatever, the player default list reflects current ADPs so hopefully I don't get blamed anymore. Sheesh.

[DOUGHBOYS]

When first starting on computers, some defaults were alphabetical. Ugh.

[mdecav]

Doesn't that imply that default is doing its job?....
Moving Hader and Hendriks to where they have been going in a majority of drafts...

Well, no.

Owners are taking the closers so early BECAUSE the first two were ranked 30 & 32 - with the other closers following shortly thereafter - and then add the IT issue that ADPs were not displayed after the fifth completed draft in Draft Rooms amplified it.

Oh boy. You really think NFBC early drafters are going off OUR PLAYER DEFAULT LIST!!! So all of the early drafters took Hader and Hendricks in the third round because of our player default list? As Dan said, they went 33rd and 34th in the first Premature league and were already going in the third round. But I was the one to influence this trend? That's crazy.

Here is what I know as fact:

1) In past years two, maybe three, closers have gone in the first five rounds
2) This year's pre-ADP rank has five closers in the first five+ rounds, given Pressly is 76
3) We have six closers going in the first five rounds this year

How #3 happened wasn't the decision of numerous drafters to start taking closers two rounds earlier. SOMETHING had to influence them to do something that was never done in recent years. The only info many owners have is the pre-ADP rank; I surely don't have any readily-available information to go on.

My observation is that one or two owners decided to take a closer extremely early in the earliest league this year, which has the cascading effect of A) other owners in that league taking closers early, which B) impacts pre-ADP Rank, which C) impacts ADP.

[Greg Ambrosius]

If this is true "The only info many owners have is the pre-ADP rank" then everyone should jump into the earliest NFBC DCs. C'mon.

MTM likely had two of the earliest DCs that finished and those leagues had 15 sharp owners. I think all of the early DCs have sharp owners who DON'T rely on just draft room player default lists for their knowledge. If I'm wrong, then you should do very well in early drafts.

Again, maybe top closers will go earlier than you expect this year in DCs. Maybe I was wrong to use the Premature EDraftulation results to help me set up the draft room rankings, but ADPs will let us all know where they should be going. Maybe if early drafters took Hader too early, then other top players dropped who were bargains at that time. We'll find out, but I think you're giving the rankings too much credit for the influence it has on high-stakes drafters.

[Doctor Who]

Two things...

1) The landscape is always changing in fantasy so what closers went for in previous years has nothing to do with anything if you ask me. Values change all the time.

2) Take closers going that early as in advantage or find out how to take advantage if you believe they are mispriced.

Even if you are correct that the default rankings have so much influence, which I don't think is the case, and if it is, I have been giving too much credit to my fellow players I play against, use it against your competition. You now know what they are drafting from if that is the case. Which is HUGE information that you could use against said player. There are so many things you can take advantage of if you truly believe this to be the case, but it involves putting in the work to decipher on how to take advantage so it turns in your favor.

[mdecav]

If this is true "The only info many owners have is the pre-ADP rank" then everyone should jump into the earliest NFBC DCs. C'mon.

MTM likely had two of the earliest DCs that finished and those leagues had 15 sharp owners. I think all of the early DCs have sharp owners who DON'T rely on just draft room player default lists for their knowledge. If I'm wrong, then you should do very well in early drafts.

Again, maybe top closers will go earlier than you expect this year in DCs. Maybe I was wrong to use the Premature EDraftulation results to help me set up the draft room rankings, but ADPs will let us all know where they should be going. Maybe if early drafters took Hader too early, then other top players dropped who were bargains at that time. We'll find out, but I think you're giving the rankings too much credit for the influence it has on high-stakes drafters.

I was one of those who was in Mike's early drafts, and eight closers (Hendriks, Hader, Pressly, Iglesias, Clase, Diaz, Gallegos, and Smith) went in the first five rounds and Chapman went first in the sixth round.

I don't think its "wrong" to use those results; you need to have some criteria to get your rankings. It's just something to be aware of in the future. This offseason will be an interesting experiment to see how this plays out. I'm curious to see where ADP takes this but I think these rankings will be pretty sticky as we head into March.

[Thurman15]

I think it is clear that there are only about 10 closers that have a high chance to keep the job, so it makes sense that owners are grabbing them earlier.
And I think it is silly to insinuate that Greg & co. have made a mistake. There is no perfect way to do it. And if it is a "poor" ranking system then jump in numerous early drafts as Greg said. Because apparently you will have a big advantage grabbing good players that have fallen.