Edwards Kings 2023 Blog...Dinks, Drips, and Drabs
Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:05 am
VEGAS! I have participated in the events in Tampa, Orlando, Chicago, New York, but mostly Vegas. Loved each and every one, but Vegas always carries a certain panache. Trashy panache, yes…glittery, got to see it at night panache, why in the hell is there a “White Castle” on the main drag panache, but certainly panache. Love going, love leaving but the allure is always there. Whenever there, cannot help but rationalize that I am somehow…I don’t know…part of a pack…
Yeah…that is me. Part of the Rat Pack…if they had an old fat one with a southern accent. Illusion and rationalization, where would we be without them, especially in fantasy baseball.
Wow…what a weekend and I only did two contests. Have to get the kudo’s out of the way…stellar all around thanks to Greg, Tom, Darik, and Minnesota Mike (the brains of the outfit). It was wonderful and without what you guys do I would not be able to justify traveling to do this.
Words cannot describe the undescribable Mike Massotto…and I am not talking just the jacket and boots (glad the gift shop at the leather and lace club had your size) from Friday night. The events and the man himself are one of the high points of the weekend for me. The Godfather in rare form….
Always look forward to seeing you, brother. You set a high bar and do not disappoint….
And thanks again to Bob Cramutola, the reigning Main Event king, for your generosity with the Friday night party. I never got the chance to thank you personally, but certainly wanted to do so here.
We really had the opportunity to talk this weekend…about lives, families, plans, but mostly baseball. I fear leaving out all the folks I was able to have a few minutes with but here goes…Dave “My Flight is When?” Clum, Dan “No Pants Dance” Semsel, Dan “Colorado Slim” Kenyon, Glenn “This is football, right?” Lowy, Dusty “Watch Wayne Piss Away $500” Wagner, Mike “Wayne needs TWO hearing aids” Mager (seriously, thanks for your help), Don “The Ageless Wonder” Warner, Ante “I stole Seth Brown and LIKED it” Meich, Jacob “Auction by Committee” Halusker, Bob “The Champ” Mazur, Marc “Rusty Staub’s Lovechild” Winokur, Scott “Time to Kick Wayne’s Ass Again” Jenstad, Steve “Accountants ARE the Cool Kids” Jupinka, Glenn “Watch Wayne’s Face when I Steal this One!” Schroter, Kelly “Which way did Jon go?” Withrow, and Jon “If Wayne were a baseball card, he would be a PSA 1 Common” Stadtmueller. So many more and I am sure I left folks out and I apologize. In short, it was a great weekend with the rest of the inmates of the asylum.
Now…baseball….
No excuses this year. I had all the time in the world and loved using every spare minute. Amazing how my October mind, moved to November mind, to December….you get it. Watching the waves of change over the offseason take hold, the FA movements, the saga of Correa’s medical reports...and the rule changes.
Most of the rule changes will have impact I think, but most only in lessor degrees. The time clock will not do too much…only a few pitchers were human rain delays. Batters will not be able to step out…after every bloody pitch…to adjust their batting gloves (boy, that made such good TV, right?). I do not even think the limited throws to first base nor the larger bags will have much impact. It is not like every guy who had five steals last year will suddenly go all Maury Wills on us. Stealing bases has been so under-utilized for so long, there is just no way players will be coached up quickly. Looking for who MIGHT deserve a bump, I looked at guys who had low success rates and wondered if that extra few inches will help. I just do not see it.
If steals go up, it will be with those guys already successful and I think most boats will rise two or three. Those that do have SB spikes, I am sure the talking heads will discuss how the rule changes might have spurred the increase, but more than likely, the cause will be health, not oversized bags. We will see.
What will make a change, at least in BA and ERA, is the end of the shift. Managers will try to create shift-lites, but I think a players BA will go up (too late for Brian McCann) which means more baserunners, which means more runs score. The BA boon, such that it will be, will rest with those players with higher groundball rates and strong barrel rates, especially when playing those teams with average or worse infield defense. The flip side will be even more late-inning glove first replacements for the range-challenged infielders…your big-stick, iron-glove players may see fewer late-inning AB’s. I tried to take advantage of this to a certain extent. At least in planning. During the draft? Well….
There are always so many paths to completing a roster in a snake draft. This year, I thought there was a fairly deep pool of #1 starter types…those that only injury would cause to underperform. But with ERA’s likely to inflate (in my opinion), I felt I really should lock in a couple of key anchors…unlike last year where I went all offense early and tried to piece the pitching together later. I was not good enough to make that happen (though Bob Mazur had put together a great team last year from my league and not only won, but had a 10th place finish in the overall), and I did not want a repeat.
That said, I felt that this might be the year for a throw-back strategy. Years ago, the rage was “75-75”…seventy-five HR and seventy-five SB in your first three batters. The decided lack of SB has made that strategy a bit anachronistic. Until now. With the rise of players like Acuna, Rodriguez, Turner, Ramirez, Tucker, Witt, Tatis and others, I think the 75-75 strategy could work. While there are exceptions, most of these proven power/speed guys (especially with 0.250+ batting averages) do not survive much past the fourth round. No big surprise there as even I can see the attraction. And last year something like only two-dozen guys stole 20+ bases, so if I can snag at least three of these top guys….
The cost is potentially missing out on the big power bats (Vladdy, Alvarez, Alonso, Riley, and others). These guys may toss in a few bags, but are going to leave you looking at Judy’s later. And the other cost is delaying pitching…not only starters, but closers as well.
Closers have never been more of a mess. With injuries (Diaz), teams with serious lack of late-inning arms, and strategy changes (using the best arm in the 7th or 8th to handle the meat of the opponents’ line-ups, the 30/40 save closer is as rare as seeing me in a Vegan restaurant. And half of the anointed closers are, in effect, introduced to La Belle Guillotine during the season to be replace by a new monarch.
One thing about saves and speed that they have in common is the low number required to move up in the points in those categories. In the overall, ten SB over the course of the year (from 130 to 140) was 80 points in the overall last year. Ten SV’s (from 60 to 70) were 143 points. Ten HR was about half the SB increase in 2022, with K’s, R, and RBI’s even less elastic.
So having identified a strategy (75-75), needs (anchor SP’s) and market shortages (SB and “reliable” closers), I am ready for the draft. What could go wrong? Wayne…outsmarting himself perhaps? I also had in my mind (a dark and scary place) a strategy that maybe could put a little stress and disruption to the table. Risky, but fun maybe….or just….
More later.
Yeah…that is me. Part of the Rat Pack…if they had an old fat one with a southern accent. Illusion and rationalization, where would we be without them, especially in fantasy baseball.
Wow…what a weekend and I only did two contests. Have to get the kudo’s out of the way…stellar all around thanks to Greg, Tom, Darik, and Minnesota Mike (the brains of the outfit). It was wonderful and without what you guys do I would not be able to justify traveling to do this.
Words cannot describe the undescribable Mike Massotto…and I am not talking just the jacket and boots (glad the gift shop at the leather and lace club had your size) from Friday night. The events and the man himself are one of the high points of the weekend for me. The Godfather in rare form….
Always look forward to seeing you, brother. You set a high bar and do not disappoint….
And thanks again to Bob Cramutola, the reigning Main Event king, for your generosity with the Friday night party. I never got the chance to thank you personally, but certainly wanted to do so here.
We really had the opportunity to talk this weekend…about lives, families, plans, but mostly baseball. I fear leaving out all the folks I was able to have a few minutes with but here goes…Dave “My Flight is When?” Clum, Dan “No Pants Dance” Semsel, Dan “Colorado Slim” Kenyon, Glenn “This is football, right?” Lowy, Dusty “Watch Wayne Piss Away $500” Wagner, Mike “Wayne needs TWO hearing aids” Mager (seriously, thanks for your help), Don “The Ageless Wonder” Warner, Ante “I stole Seth Brown and LIKED it” Meich, Jacob “Auction by Committee” Halusker, Bob “The Champ” Mazur, Marc “Rusty Staub’s Lovechild” Winokur, Scott “Time to Kick Wayne’s Ass Again” Jenstad, Steve “Accountants ARE the Cool Kids” Jupinka, Glenn “Watch Wayne’s Face when I Steal this One!” Schroter, Kelly “Which way did Jon go?” Withrow, and Jon “If Wayne were a baseball card, he would be a PSA 1 Common” Stadtmueller. So many more and I am sure I left folks out and I apologize. In short, it was a great weekend with the rest of the inmates of the asylum.
Now…baseball….
No excuses this year. I had all the time in the world and loved using every spare minute. Amazing how my October mind, moved to November mind, to December….you get it. Watching the waves of change over the offseason take hold, the FA movements, the saga of Correa’s medical reports...and the rule changes.
Most of the rule changes will have impact I think, but most only in lessor degrees. The time clock will not do too much…only a few pitchers were human rain delays. Batters will not be able to step out…after every bloody pitch…to adjust their batting gloves (boy, that made such good TV, right?). I do not even think the limited throws to first base nor the larger bags will have much impact. It is not like every guy who had five steals last year will suddenly go all Maury Wills on us. Stealing bases has been so under-utilized for so long, there is just no way players will be coached up quickly. Looking for who MIGHT deserve a bump, I looked at guys who had low success rates and wondered if that extra few inches will help. I just do not see it.
If steals go up, it will be with those guys already successful and I think most boats will rise two or three. Those that do have SB spikes, I am sure the talking heads will discuss how the rule changes might have spurred the increase, but more than likely, the cause will be health, not oversized bags. We will see.
What will make a change, at least in BA and ERA, is the end of the shift. Managers will try to create shift-lites, but I think a players BA will go up (too late for Brian McCann) which means more baserunners, which means more runs score. The BA boon, such that it will be, will rest with those players with higher groundball rates and strong barrel rates, especially when playing those teams with average or worse infield defense. The flip side will be even more late-inning glove first replacements for the range-challenged infielders…your big-stick, iron-glove players may see fewer late-inning AB’s. I tried to take advantage of this to a certain extent. At least in planning. During the draft? Well….
There are always so many paths to completing a roster in a snake draft. This year, I thought there was a fairly deep pool of #1 starter types…those that only injury would cause to underperform. But with ERA’s likely to inflate (in my opinion), I felt I really should lock in a couple of key anchors…unlike last year where I went all offense early and tried to piece the pitching together later. I was not good enough to make that happen (though Bob Mazur had put together a great team last year from my league and not only won, but had a 10th place finish in the overall), and I did not want a repeat.
That said, I felt that this might be the year for a throw-back strategy. Years ago, the rage was “75-75”…seventy-five HR and seventy-five SB in your first three batters. The decided lack of SB has made that strategy a bit anachronistic. Until now. With the rise of players like Acuna, Rodriguez, Turner, Ramirez, Tucker, Witt, Tatis and others, I think the 75-75 strategy could work. While there are exceptions, most of these proven power/speed guys (especially with 0.250+ batting averages) do not survive much past the fourth round. No big surprise there as even I can see the attraction. And last year something like only two-dozen guys stole 20+ bases, so if I can snag at least three of these top guys….
The cost is potentially missing out on the big power bats (Vladdy, Alvarez, Alonso, Riley, and others). These guys may toss in a few bags, but are going to leave you looking at Judy’s later. And the other cost is delaying pitching…not only starters, but closers as well.
Closers have never been more of a mess. With injuries (Diaz), teams with serious lack of late-inning arms, and strategy changes (using the best arm in the 7th or 8th to handle the meat of the opponents’ line-ups, the 30/40 save closer is as rare as seeing me in a Vegan restaurant. And half of the anointed closers are, in effect, introduced to La Belle Guillotine during the season to be replace by a new monarch.
One thing about saves and speed that they have in common is the low number required to move up in the points in those categories. In the overall, ten SB over the course of the year (from 130 to 140) was 80 points in the overall last year. Ten SV’s (from 60 to 70) were 143 points. Ten HR was about half the SB increase in 2022, with K’s, R, and RBI’s even less elastic.
So having identified a strategy (75-75), needs (anchor SP’s) and market shortages (SB and “reliable” closers), I am ready for the draft. What could go wrong? Wayne…outsmarting himself perhaps? I also had in my mind (a dark and scary place) a strategy that maybe could put a little stress and disruption to the table. Risky, but fun maybe….or just….
More later.