My NFBC Blog - 2025

[Edwards Kings]

A couple of folks asked about or remember my blog fondly, so I have been thinking of trying my hand again. I haven’t written much since I retired and though I have time, it seems it hasn’t been on the top of my list to do. It may take several hours to dribble 500 or 1,000 words. Thinking back, I was doing more writing WHILE I was working. Or rather, other than working. I think therein lies a clue.

In any regard, I cannot start again without a bit of a recap of the weekend in Vegas. I cannot master the words to express how much fun I had catching up with people, even for a few minutes. The folks I mention here are but a few and the people not directly mention are no less important. I just want to catch a few highlights.

As always, catching up with Dave Clum, even though we text/talk fairly frequently, is always an opportunity not to be missed. This time, I was able to meet Dave’s daughter Ashley again, this time as an adult. I had first met Ashely way back when we drafted in Orlando. Now Ashley has grown into a beautiful young woman (thank God she has her mothers looks) who is obviously intelligent, articulate and kind. Dave and Myrna have much to be proud of here.

And of course there is Mike Massotto. While we spoke only briefly, I wanted again to thank Mike for the effort he puts into maintaining the social aspect of our favorite event. Without Mike’s guiding efforts, 60 or so of us would not have had a chance to meet in a wonderful suite with marvelous views to talk baseball. Certainly a high point that should not be missed. Thanks again!



While there, I met Huxley the Wonder Dog. Bright and beautiful, Huxley makes you want to just get down on the floor and get some quality time. Oh yeah…Huxley brought Dan Semsel too. Despite the replacement of several significant joints, Dan is still participating in marathons all over the world. Dan, besides being a past champion, is a great man and a miracle of modern medicine.

I haven’t spoken to Steve Jupinka in years. A true gentleman, another champion, catching up on a portion of Steve’s world is always a pleasure. Steve has seen the light so many others, Steve is contemplating retirement and moving to God’s country…the South. Steve asked my opinion on how to get along with the locals being a carpetbagger, so I told him the secret is to not loudly exclaim exactly how you used to do things up Nawth. It was good to see Steve already sporting a regionally appropriate haircut to get ready for the big move.



I also caught up with Jon Stadtmueller, but admit Jon and I mostly talked about baseball cards, something Jon truly knows about and I just love to collect.

Many, many thanks to Vlad Sedler, one of the most knowledgeable voices in the industry, for setting up a hour between events for us to gather. I enjoyed our conversation and the beer! Great speaking with another of the most intelligent and interesting fantasy guru’s, Jeff Erickson. I will continue to follow Jeff on YouTube.

The Auction allowed me to renew my association with true gentleman like Don Warner, Rob Giese, Jacob Halusker, Mike Mager, James Maples and others. This means of course that will be kicking my ass again but that will be par for the course.

In the Main, I am fortunate (or maybe it should be less than fortunate) to have Champ Glenn Schroter, the King of Queens himself, to compete against. We had a chance for a few words only as there is never enough time. Also in that league is the wild Irishman Mike Duggan and a couple of new friends who drafted (too damn well) on either side of me, first timers I believe, Jesse Anderson, Geoffrey Rice and Nicholas Halverson.

Twenty-two years ago, in the inaugural Main Event, I had Rey Diaz and Gene Mccaffrey in that league. Now, in 2025, we are competing against each other again. This I think is quite remarkable and a testament to the strength of the NFBC and to Greg Ambrosius especially and Tom Kessenich. They have poored their hearts and souls into this event and it shows. Great meeting Geoffrey Stein and seeing the looks of the Ambrosius family, Mike, again.

As long as this is, it is too shallow and I have left out too many, but know how much I truly enjoyed catching up, even for a few seconds, with each and every one of you.

[Edwards Kings]

And baseball….I will focus here, as I used too, on the Main. This year especially as I may have truly screwed myself, again, in the Auction. Note to self:

NEVERNEVERNEVERNEVERNEVER

leave money on the table.



ADP

Another testament to the NFBC is how grown is how much we see the NFBC mentioned as the gold standard for fantasy ADP’s. I follow the ADP’s, some would say a little too closely, but I have always used them more from an opportunity cost basis rather than a surrogate for doing my own draft prep. Early on, opinions varied wildly on when to pick certain players. Some of those early drafts were amazing as various strategies, such as when to pick starters, closers, or catchers played out as well as other issues like position scarcity. With the advent of readily accessible NFBC ADP’s, even if most were 50-round Draft Champion Leagues, made the drafting process at least a little more predictable. A few years ago ADP’s may have been recipes a little more slavishly adhered to by many drafters, myself included.

Now the use of ADP’s is a smaller tool in my kit. Once the first Main ADP’s became available, you could see after five or six rounds the timing of the picks really spread out dramatically. To a certain extent this has always been the case and the Baseball Forecaster has the statistical formula to determine the probability of when certain players will be available. A useful tool I have used myself, but this kind of math is a trap and can drive you more than a little insane when others don’t follow the probability script.

This year, I used ADP’s to determine what I thought my ideal draft pick would be and to map out what I thought was the ideal strategy for my first eight picks (fully expecting, as it usually does, for the strategy to change very quickly because the rest of the drafters would not behave).

KDS

I am normally the blandest KDS planner in the world. One to fifteen. Straight butter. Stay within the lines. Hold your hand up before speaking. Three-wood down the fairway. Get out of the shower before taking a piss. The cardigan sweater-khaki pants wearing KDSer.

Not this year. It wasn’t necessarily the available talent that made me change. I was the insane luck I had last year. Using straight butter, I had a couple of very high draft picks last year and while I actually appreciate how random the selection process is, my grandmother assured me that the sun don’t shine on the same dogs butt all the time. So I changed.

I wanted a shot at Witt and Ohtani, so I started at one, two. After that, however, my preference was to the last third of the draft. With people like Julio Rodriguez, Mookie Betts, Jackson Chourio, Francisco Lindor, and Fernando Tatis being available at the end and at the turn, I just saw a real advantage to getting two of these five-category players to anchor my team. Other greats could be there as well, like Vladdy and Alvarez…better averages and more power certainly, but no steals. Pitchers too…one of Skubal or Skenes could fall and on the turn, anchors Crochet and Wheeler would be right there. Lot’s of options and lot’s of good strategic ways to anchor your team.

My third choice was pick #13 and that is what I got. Turns out I also guessed right about being further down the list than the prior year….my team was picked 12th in the KDS selection process so at best my pick would have been #12. It is good to right once in a while….

[Edwards Kings]

The Draft

I do not have as many teams as others. One, too many teams and it becomes like work. Second, I have a hard time feeling really vested if there are so many teams to track. I am not saying others are less vested the more teams they have…it is just me. I end up feeling more engaged in “my” team(s). And the few drafts I do end up being very exciting to me….something I will have looked forward to for months.



The strategy I chose this year is an old one. I wanted the 75 HR/75 SB strategy which for me meant going offense first and foremost. My biggest fear, as I expressed to several people, was to have Skubal or Skenes drop to me. I felt I could resist Crochet, Wheeler, and Gilbert and totally understand why people draft those pitchers so early. I just felt like that next tier of starting pitchers available later in the first third of the draft was pretty wide with good K’s, good ERA’s and on good teams or in good stadiums. This pitching depth seemed tailor made for this kind of strategy. Can’t be wedded to it, but if the draft flows right, it works…at least that is the way I see it. Results vary and time will tell. In the end, it will be like a pregnancy tests…either she is or she isn’t. Insert other commonly used here….



As it turned out, this draft played pretty close to expectations. I draft old-school…no computer, which is generally less distracting for me. I sort my cheat sheets by latest ADP so I can see if someone is going off the board with an interesting new strategy. As it turns out, I had nearly marked out the current sheet completely before picks were being made that were represented on the subsequent sheet until pretty late in the draft. To my memory, this is really the first time that had occurred. That does not mean there were not some minor surprises.



After the NJ drafts, my ADP had eleven Main’s, which I thought was good enough to finish my draft notes, subject of course to whatever injuries or demotions occurred. In the first round, I got my first minor surprise. My plan was to go Julio and then either Lindor or Betts on the turn. If I couldn’t get two of those three, then Jazz or Duran should be available, again ignoring pitching that wasn’t Skenes or Skubal. As it turns out, both were gone by pick #9, so no big surprise there. Then Tatis went a little earlier than I expected (can’t be anything but “a little” as we are discussing the earliest stages of the draft), so that means somebody dropped. To the minor chagrin of my Cubs fan to my right…Kyle Tucker was available and I jumped….



In the 37 Main Event drafts as of this blog post, that is the latest he has been available. Let’s hope for one of those contract year super seasons (that do not really exist). Not earth shattering, but a little pleasant surprise. Henderson also slipped, I guess because of the news he would not be ready for the Opener, but I passed on him as I too was a little put off by the injury (he went 17th). Of my original three choices, Betts ended up still being there as the 18th pick, so I grabbed him. I am concerned about the weight loss, but there has been few more consistent fantasy performers in recent years than Betts. On a great team and he will score a lot of runs.

Now you wait as most of the remaining A-list players go. I am still planning, if the right players are available, to stay with that five category offense first strategy. As the third round progressed, it became clear that closers would be HIGHLY valued in this league. Five went in the third round. If I wanted a top closer, I would have to change my strategy because I felt the fourth and fifth round would probably bleed out the remaining first-tier closers. But after the last several years, there have been less than a handful of constants (Hader, Williams, Clase, Iglesias). Others have been drafted as first-tier, only to fall by the wayside. Last year, I wanted one to limit how much FAAB I would end up having to spend, but I just cannot trust closers. I will wait. No strategy change.



My second pleasant minor surprise came to me in the third. Oneill Cruz has been going normally late second, early third round. Not the latest he was available, but nearly, he was there for me at the 43rd pick. I was very happy to get him and now I nearly have a corner on dual SS/OF eligible players. Around the corner went a great starter, a great closer, and two Braves (sniff). Coming in kind of late in my vision is Lawrence Butler. It is not that I did not know his name, but playing in Oakland…well we just don’t think about Oakland that much in Jawja. He has a BA that at best won’t hurt you, but he hits the ball HARD, will be playing in a PCL ball park and has speed enough to steal at least 20. He fits my profile and my team. I can easily see 100 HR and 80+ SB out of these first four guys with a solid BA floor. And all but Betts are in their mid- to late-twenties prime. It has cost me a chance at some prime starters and the best closers, but it was the strategy I wanted and through four rounds this is what I hoped for.

Now pitchers. In my opinion, not all anchor starters were gone. but I watched painfully as fifteen pitchers went off the board. As expected, many (seven) were closers. There were several pitchers I wanted, but only one was left to me that I thought of as “anchor”. Pablo Lopez is only 28 and really does not get the love he deserves. I was glad he was there and I am glad he is on my team. Going around the corner, only one other pitcher was taken (a closer), so the rest of my list was available. I may have been a bit of a homey, but I love this kid Schwellenbach. The difference for me compared to other pitchers of his age/experience is he has the tough part down already…control. He is about a K per IP, but I can live with that as his ERA and WHIP should be strong on a contending team. Nice #1 and #2 for my rotation.

[Edwards Kings]

Now the waiting again as eleven more pitchers went in the next twenty-four picks, all of them good. I had hoped for a chance a resurgent Robbie Ray, but was denied by James Maples. Available to me was Luis Castillo, who is more than just a “solid” pick, at 31 still has a really good chance at 200 K’s playing on a mediocre team in a great pitchers’ park. I have him as another solid #2 starter. I had four pitchers left in my target tier for my fourth starter. Three went around the corner. I was “left” with Sonny Gray. Not unhappy with getting him, other than the fact that I have him in my Auction league and I did not want to double up too much. At 34, the oldest of my pitchers, but still a work-horse that if he can get the innings in, will approach 200 K’s, which he did last year. Four bats…four arms. Strangely, rarely, pretty much as I planned it.

Now what the hell do I do?



Usually by this time my strategy has blown apart, but having what I wanted (win, lose, or draw), I now sit back a play the “best” player angle. Most of the teams are starting to see what is missing from their rosters and addressing the situation. I am not yet worrying about that, so I just want to see who is available. Coming back to me is a guy I wanted, even though I have him my Auction league. Josh Lowe has power, speed, may not platoon this year, and will be hitting fourth in a band box. Waiting….waiting….only two more picks and he is mine…



Not to be. Two picks before me, a guy who I thought before this was a great person, Michael O’Brien snagged him. Good pick. Well…no other players jumped out as hitting up in the line-up and have the power/speed combo, so I grabbed my first corner in Vinnie Pasquantino. I like him as a player and he is entering his prime years hitting in the middle of the KC line-up. About 30 minutes later he pulls a hammy….dammit.

With pitching (I feel) being a strength and not being very confident so many of the remaining starters, I got greedy and grabbed another. Most people could have had Jack Flaherty last year for a cold chicken sandwich, but he really turned it around. I do not expect 185 IP our of him, but I will take what I can get because the results are typically good to great and he is only 29 years old. Pitcher prime. Great K%, K-BB%, and SwK rates last year means the goods are still there.

Now an opportunity kind of presents itself. I had resigned myself to loading up on the next man on the list relievers, but after the early feeding frenzy, closers had cooled. Yes, the remainders would be considered third-tier (at best) but now they do not cost so much. So I waited and watched. Four of that tier went before my next pick. I grabbed Pete Fairbanks (note to self….grab Uceta later!) then Kyle Finnegan, mainly because honestly the Nats have no real alternative. At best, these guys can keep me mid-pack in saves and I am now committed to chasing the shiny new pennies in FAAB.

In all this pitching, I may have let my offense suffer too much. We are now in the thirteenth round and pickins are starting to slim. He almost fits my earlier profile…or at least a lite-version. Young, hitting in the bottom third of the BoSox line-up, he will hit 15/15 to 20/20 with a BA that won’t gag you. Cedanne Rafaela. Balance. Young enough to learn more, do more…or could end up a footnote. Coming back around…yes you guessed it…a pitcher. I do not know when Nick Lodolo will turn it on for good and I expect some blow-ups (lord what a second half), but if he stays healthy (who the hell has a “strained middle finger”…I have been using my middle finger extensively all my life and never had an injury!).



Coming back around I am in risk territory. Carlos Correa (like I need another SS eligible player) was there and I grabbed him. I would have taken Buxton (balance), but Mr. Bronski saw that wasn’t going to happen. Then…yup…a pitcher. I have a man-crush on Brandon Woodruff this year. He has been far enough removed from the injury and I know that 130 IP or so is all I can expect, but if he can get close to his former self at 31, gold. Looked pretty good in spring training.

It is too late to call this blog long, so I will speed it up….Next Joey Ortiz (really like this kid) and Christopher Morel (bad BA, but hitting for the Rays); Sean Murphy (people are just discounting him too much) and Luke Raley (power on the good side of a platoon); Austin Hays (no respect, but could be nice if he stays hitting fourth in Cincy) and Jeimer Candelario (Cincy keeps playing him); Edwin Uceta (tear up the note) and Drake Baldwin (until Murphy is healthy); Mitch Garver (need another catcher…will trolling for upgrades) and Jeremiah Estrada (may be the best arm in the SD bullpen); Pavin Smith (good side of the platoon at DH in Arizona) and Jorge Polanco (may not have the job long but he was once a pretty hot pick and he is only 32); Jordan Hicks (only because he recently had a good spring start), and Seranthony Dominguez (if Bautisa can’t go).

Well those are my thoughts and my Main Event draft…this is nearly 4,500 words and took me 3.5 hours pretty steady writing plus more time to post/add gifs…now I know why I was fired so much.
.

[Bronx Yankees]

Wayne, great seeing you in Vegas! Love the blog! Good luck this season!

[Ultrarunner]

Always a pleasure to catch up with you. Good luck this year!

[Edwards Kings]

Time to get excited....



I can't tell you exactly how it will play out...



But somehow, it feels a little electric today!



It's (the real) OPENING DAY!

[Quahogs]

Ahh spring is around the corner in the NE when you see the crocus and forsythia bloom and Wayne's Blog hit the newsstand.
All to soon whither and blow away like Wayne's Blog in May! Hope you keep it running all season, Wayne!

What are the signs of spring in the south, alligators and snakes coming out of the mud?

Anyway, it was great as always chatting with you! Hope there are more like you down south!

[Edwards Kings]

Ahh spring is around the corner in the NE when you see the crocus and forsythia bloom and Wayne's Blog hit the newsstand.
All to soon whither and blow away like Wayne's Blog in May! Hope you keep it running all season, Wayne!

What are the signs of spring in the south, alligators and snakes coming out of the mud?

Anyway, it was great as always chatting with you! Hope there are more like you down south!

Signs of Spring in the South: Pine pollen (yellow dust of death), tube tops (though Granny wears hers lower and lower each year), and the smell of burnt lighter fluid (as we lite up the Old DIz charcoal for the grill)!

And yes...it my prayer that a blog on my team is still relevant in May!

[Packman]

Coming back to me is a guy I wanted, even though I have him my Auction league. Josh Lowe has power, speed, may not platoon this year, and will be hitting fourth in a band box. Waiting….waiting….only two more picks and he is mine…

Not to be. Two picks before me, a guy who I thought before this was a great person, Michael O’Brien snagged him. Good pick. Well…no other players jumped out as hitting up in the line-up and have the power/speed combo, so I grabbed my first corner in Vinnie Pasquantino. I like him as a player and he is entering his prime years hitting in the middle of the KC line-up. About 30 minutes later he pulls a hammy….dammit.

Just because I didn't let you get Josh Lowe doesn't mean you had to put a hex on him. Couldn't even get through one game...And Pasquantino didn't end up missing any time, and even homered on opening day.

[Edwards Kings]

Bwuhahahahahahah! Oh crap...forgot I have him on my Auction team...dammmit! Yeah...nice to see Pasquatch playing but really hated to see Lowe get hurt.

Damn obliques....

[Edwards Kings]

Where has the season gone! Seems like only last week we were in Vegas…



We all wait with baited breath to see who will emerge as the Major League Baseball Home Run Champion….a tight race with only one dinger separating Judge, Eugenio Suarez, Jazz Chisholm, Tyler Soderstrom, Jordan Westburg and perennial power monster Tommy Edman. Tuffy Rhodes….where art thou!



Oh well…blizzard of pine pollen or not, two things I know will happen this week…the Braves will win a game and I will be in attendance if/when Spencer Strider makes his next rehab appearance. Since the Strip(p)ers will be playing the Nashville Sounds, maybe Brandon Woodruff will also make a rehab appearance…a boy can hope!



WEEK 1 Results

With six homeruns and six stolen bases (thanks to four by Oneil Cruz) I was glad not to have a deep hole in the short week as so often happens as some players seem to enter a fugue state coming out of spring training, though Carlos Correa’s lone sleep-walk BB was his only contribution to the Twins offensive output (0-11) certainly counts as a disappointment. Obviously need him and others on the roster to step up because whatever good stats I had last week from the batters came from my first three picks (Tucker, Betts, and Oneil).

Pitching was a nice story, even with what became a mistake by me. I sat Jack Flaherty against the LA Moneybags. Flaherty of course did not win, but threw a good game, which should portend well I hope over the season. In the end, the move cost me about four strikeouts, but at the end of the season, four K’s could be useful (again, I hope). Used five starters who generated two wins in the five starts (40% is at least by bare minimum of starts to wins ratio if I am going to compete in the category) and a 2.667 ERA/0.963 WHIP. Nice start though the 18 K’s in 27 IP is surprising. Lodolo only had one strike-out in his otherwise excellent 6.0 IP start, but only Sonny Gray had more K’s than IP. I will chalk that up to early season caution.

The relievers I used picked up some of the slack. Collectively they had 12 K’s in nine IP, with a save each by Fairbanks (who also had a win) and Finnegan. They allowed no runs but had seven walks, which caused the WHIP to be 1.333. But I will take it.

Week 1 FAAB

I knew the world would beat a path to Alvarado and Luke Jackson, and both drew some strong winning bids (Jackson 166 with a runner-up of 135, and Alvarado 135/72). Jackson had the role in Atlanta for a while and he is capable, but both situations were too fluid for me given the players/history (Alvarado has never seem to take that next step). I placed token bids on both and was runner up in neither. My goal will try to look ahead two weeks to see who might be the next shiny penny. On my bench I have Uceta (in case Fairbanks falters), Estrada (the best arm in the San Diego bullpen) and Seranthony Dominguez (another guy who never took it to the next level) in case Bautista has problems. I have my eye on about two dozen other lottery tickets. We will see.

None of the other activity was really expensive nor surprising as people where tweaking their rosters with hot hands, replacing spring-training roster losers, and a few cheap gambles.

I did pick up Endy Rodriguez to be my catcher since Garver, other than pinch hitting, will probably only see two lefthanders next week. Rodriguez is player every day (for now) so I hope he will be an upgrade.



Week 2 Plans

Pretty much the same as last week while I wait for Sean Murphy (getting AB in the minors and hope to see him in Gwinnett as well) and Austin Hays (probably out another week). This means I will have to use both strong-side platooners Pavin Smith and Luke Raley. Raley at least is hitting fifth and Smith was a non-entity last week as the D-Backs faced three left-handers. This week, both should face at least four right-handers in the six games. I hate to leave AB on the bench, so looking for both OF and CM upgrades to go with my better catcher quest. Mainly for now just playing it cool.



The plan this week is to go with seven starters on pitching and therein lies my first gamble as I wait for the second coming of Brandon Woodruff. Most of my starters face strong to decent match-ups. The one outlier is Jordan Hicks with two starts, one on the road in Houston and one at home against Seattle. There was once at least a measure of excitement about Hicks transforming himself from reliever to starter, much akin to King and Holmes. Didn’t happen last year. This year?



Anyway, good luck!

[Edwards Kings]

What a great weekend! Attended the Strider start in Gwinnett and he looked…good. They pulled Strider exactly at 75 pitches, which was mid-batter. That told me then there was at least one more start in the minors (confirmed by later reports). Working fastball/slider most of the night, Strider had sufficient stuff to no-hit the Nashville Sounds (though honestly, that is no great feat) over the 5 1/3 completed innings. Struck out eight…good and more of the “looking” kind. Only two hard hit balls, one a grounder to second and another stroke that got to the warning track (and the CFer) fast. What got me though was he, after the first inning, went deep into the count on quite a few sub-standard hitters. Didn’t appear to be working on a new pitch and he was not off by much (only one call challenged, which showed the Ump right by about an inch). Definitely some frustration on the part of Strider. Almost there…

Sean Murphy also played and again was…good. The Nashville pitcher was a guy who throws about six different pitches, though none are above average and some are at best usable on occasion. Murphy did not make great contact and even had a base stolen off him. With my “who needs catchers?” strategy, I need Murphy, whom I have in both leagues, back…and more importantly back to ’23. The Braves have activated him.



And Sunday…friends of ours won the Masters Lottery and were able to get four tickets for Sunday’s Drive, Chip, Putt competition for kids and teens. I have spent my life here in the Greatest State in the Nation and never gone on the grounds of Augusta National. This was a real treat. It is a bit shocking to think that a nine-year old can kick you ass in golf, but these kids, all ages, were wonderful. The grounds of Augusta National are almost awe-inspiring. May sound silly, but this was a bucket list item for me. And classy…the only event/venue/place for sports in the world that allows you access and does NOT rob you..everything was reasonably priced to down-right cheap from the tickets, to concessions to gift shop. Total class….



And more baseball….

Week Two Results

Last week showed my team in all its glory…great starting pitching and offense that is lagging. Ended up with eight games started with five wins, a beautiful percentage. The gem Schwellenbach threw (ok…against Miami) was the star, but other than the 6th inning meltdown by Sonny Gray, all the starts were good to great. Even Hicks, who threw a six inning, one hit/two walk shutout over the Astros in Houston, pitched well. Actually all starts, except Gray, could have been wins. My only concern here is where is Nick Lodolo’s strike-outs? I pretty much hit my target K’s for the week, but given the capital I invested in my starters, just hitting target is not good enough.

Closer Finnegan got two saves (good) but Fairbanks only got in one game with no save (not good). Another area I waited on so I am going to have to throw some FA bucks this way and see if something sticks.

My batters, as a whole, were incredibly average/mid-packish. Tucker and Cruz combined for five HR and five SB with Butler and Mookie contributing nicely. Good…that is why I drafted them so high. Have some real pros elsewhere who I feel will definitely contribute nicely, but need help at second, third and catcher. Need help…need help…



FAAB

As expected, the unsettled closer situation on several teams unraveled so options have presented themselves. The options are “gray” as most do not know the managers minds and the pudits are all like “…he could do it…” or “…could be a committee of…” In these cases, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Miami seem to draw some interest. I focused more on Pittsburgh and Detroit over Miami (i.e. current closer-du-jour is next teams middle reliever). I really had a hard time getting a feel this early on who in my league would go for what. At the end of the day, most of the options are mediocre at best, but I put bids of $103 on both Dennis Santana and Tommy Kahnle. Based on “stuff”, I think Kahnle has the best chance to grab the job for an extended period (though managers don’t always go with stuff), but Santana seems to have the job, especially with Holderman out of the picture. As it was, Santana go picked-off the great one Gene McCaffrey, who must REALLY believe in him. I was not even second. I ended up with Kahnle (who immediately goes in my line-up in place of Hicks who has one start this week in Yankee Stadium) over a second place bid of $78. As it turns out, I ended up with Santana in my Auction League as Kahnle was the reliever big money winner. Go figure.

The other player most were interested in was Zac Veen. He could be the next (insert favorite great player here), though his defense/arm is above his offensive ability, I think. I placed a strong bid on him as I need some help, but $151 winning bid in my league was far above mine. I placed a few small bids on some really fringe players who turned out less fringe than I imagined. With Drake Baldwin on my bench, I have an open spot to fill.



Well…not yet, but it is not May yet so I am still hopeful….

[Edwards Kings]

Still early, but the different teams’ rosters are firming up and certain experiments are falling by the wayside. In the “real” world of fantasy baseball, the experiments are being dropped and the injuries are (as always) creating roster crunches to be alleviated (we hope) with some insightful (we hope) FAAB picks. Certainly this week some new pennies generated interest (including Athletic and Rockies pitchers, heaven help us) as well as just about anyone who has strung together at least three starts out of the last four games.

I, of course, am immune to such trends.



MY FAAB

With the hammy pull by Pablo Lopez that put him on the DL (and cost me a start I could ill afford), I now have two of my reserve spots (with Woodruff) for at least a couple more weeks tied up with injured pitchers, though Lopez may be ready sooner. I am ok with going with three closers (Finnegan, Fairbanks, and Kahnle), but outside of those arms I only have six healthy starters. One of those is Hicks, whom I (surprisingly) sat last week since he had a tough start in NY against the Yanks. I would much prefer using Hicks at home and/or against the Rockies/White Sox/Athletics/Marlins class of teams and this week Hicks is in Philly…another team/location I would like to avoid. I have Estrada, SD, on my bench whom I like, but I think the team would be better off with another starter. Though considered and down on my list of alternatives, I did not go for Chase Dollander, who seemed to generate a great deal of interest NFBC-wide and in my league was the most expensive player purchased at $87 (a bargain compared to what some others paid). Tough to get a serious bid from me for a Rockies pitcher, no matter how good, because his team has little ability to support him. Same with J.T. Ginn, who was picked up in nearly every league. Ginn, like Dollander, has one start away from his home field so I see the attraction, but he did not make my top three.

Despite the bad team, I took a moderately priced flyer on Edward Cabrera, who even with the walks, should give you K’s until he is hurt again and his next two starts should be in Miami, a good thing. I was not even second. Next on my list was Easton Lucas. Another moderate bid, I really do not know much about Lucas but with two home starts against struggling offensives (ATL and SEA) was certainly worth a flyer given his first two starts. Again, I did not get him. Next, with the same bid as the other two, was tried and less than true Tijuan Walker. Certainly on the best team of the three, Walker is likely just keeping Painter’s seat warm and it has been about two years since he had any fantasy relevance. His first two starts have been good (though against Colorado in Philly) and mehhh (couldn’t finish the fifth against Atlanta). He does have two starts at home (Giants and Fish) so he is worth a flyer. I got him for $31 with a $12 runner up bid. He also generated some NFBC wide interest where available with the highest winning bid of $77. It is good not to be alone.



Seeing some offensive pieces fall back into the FA pool due to lack of AB or injury. My move here was to drop Drake Baldwin since Murphy is back (with a bang). In my opinion there was not much available. I grabbed infielder Gabriel Arias who at least is getting regular AB and with Hays about to come off the DL, I thought infield depth was key. Chase Meidroth was also a consideration, and he also generated NFBC-wide interest. I just did not value him highly enough I guess. In any regard, I will continue to scroll for useful offensive pieces.

Week 3 Results

Speaking of batting, this past week was an “almost” and as predicted I am at risk of falling behind due to my draft emphasis on starting pitching. I almost got my target of 300 AB (274) which is probably why I missed my HR/RBI/Runs targets, but again not by much, with a 0.241 BA (not killer, but not good). “Not by much” means I am behind. I did have strong SB results (8) even with only getting eight AB from Oneil Cruz. And Cruz, with Tucker, Betts, and Butler are going to be the key to carrying my team for offensive categories. The other pieces are good and will have their moments, and certain ones could step up, but this is a batting Tetris game. If all pieces don’t fit, I lose.



In pitching, I had something happen that I do not believe has happened to me in 22 years. I had three saves in one night…never happened before. With a total of five saves for the week, the early results are good, despite relying on third-tier closers. This was a good week (eight K’s and only two walks in 7 2/3 IP with two ER) that I will ride as long as I can with a wandering eye on upgrades as they present themselves. Especially losing the Lopez start and that is the main reason I did not hit my K’s target. Otherwise got two wins out of a measly six starts. The good news is that there were only two earned runs in those six starts. As it is now through Week 3, my ERA and WHIP are ungodly good. There are bumps and bums in the road coming (see, Tijuan Walker).



I have many more starts this week though some are pretty tough. I am hoping to use the starts to bump up my pitching counting stats and hope to escape from a radical ERA/WHIP correction. The correction is coming, but I hope to get more than a few more IP before it occurs.

Week 4 Plans

My only real decision on batting this week is Raley versus Hays at UT. Hays should be activated before Tuesday, but the Reds, while they don’t have many strict platoons, seem to be mixing and matching. For some reason, Lux is batting 4th against RHers, so I could see Hays slipping in there. This first week back, however, I could see them sitting him a couple of times. Raley is out of that hitting hell-hole that is Seattle this week. Absent Mariner injuries, Raley would be sitting against LHers and he faces two this week. But he started against a LHer last week….probably a Tuesday decision.



I want more, but never could catch up to the high heat, so I am going to have to rely on the players themselves.

[Edwards Kings]

Three and a half weeks in and we have all been second guessing ourselves for a while now. Normally, I feel it is May before the “personality” of the compiled draft teams really show. At that time, we can try to remember “what the hell was I thinking” and the resultant conclusions of “why did I pick THAT guy?” are espoused. Still just too early for that….just as May is only nine days away. Recriminations begin….



As for me, I got Austin Hays back. I was a little surprised by the fact Hays received as little love as he did during the draft, on average having an ADP of 326 (range from 266 to 431). I took him “early” at 313 even though at that time I felt my OF was probably my strongest offensive area. The lack of love was probably due to the 30 year old’s rather average results from 2021 through 2023 plus the series of 2024 injuries (calf, hamstring, kidney). He also was not ready to start the season. It was generally thought however that Cincinnati would hit him in the middle of the order, but the Reds have a way of moving pieces in and out of the line-up. Fortunately for me this week, they put him in the middle of the line-up this week and he paid off in spades. Three HR, seven runs, eight RBI’s and a 0.4286 BA in six games. And I think he can keep this pace up all year.



But there is always opportunity cost to these decisions we make week in and week out for 26 full weeks, most of the time with multiple teams. Though hot, one of my other “projects”, Pavin Smith had games in Miami…tough place to hit. So I sat him. MISTAKE. Well, I rectified that with putting Smith back in and sitting Jeimer Candelario who had three in Baltimore. DAMMMIT…between the two of them, I left a 0.400 BA with three HR, three runs scored, four RBI’s and even a stolen base on the bench. Hays was better, but those are some strong stats. I have a lot of flexibility, so I had other options, primary of which was Christopher Morel. But he was looking at seven games in the Stienbrenner band-box and Morel was hitting in the middle of the order against LHers, and still playing against RHers. This was of course before Tampa starting calling up players and all of a sudden, Morel is a short-side platooner and persona non grata. Lowe back soon too, so he is taking a seat I think….over there…with those other guys….




For the week anyway I hit most of my batter targets except BA. Didn’t hit, again, my at-bats target, mainly because I lost a catcher on Monday. My team is really predicated on Tucker, Betts, Butler, and Cruz. As they go, so will my team. My hope is to bolt on decent supporting piece. Besides BA, as of this three-and-a-half week mark I am close…about a half of a week of stats, on my HR/R/RBI targets. Surprisingly (at least according to Fantasy Pros) I am actually a little ahead on stolen bases.

Pitching is another story. I knew a shoe was going to drop and boy did it last Tuesday. Four starts, none completed five innings, and all got tagged. My ERA and WHIP are now less sick good as these kinds of blow ups still impact your average stats this early. I am using three closers (or two and a half I guess) so only six starters is costing me wins and K’s right now. My big FA pick-up Tijuan Walker crapped the bed in one start and came out early the next even though he was pitching well. Worst of worst. Castillo, Schwellenbach, Flaherty, and Lodolo all sucked. Sonny Gray’s two starts kept me close on certain targets but other than Saves, pitiful week.



WEEK 5

Kinda halfway almost getting healthy. I need a catcher, though hoping that a finger laceration will not keep Endy Rodriguez out all week (yes, my 2nd catcher slot is that weak), so I place a bid on Mitch Garver ($13) as Seattle will be facing LHers twice in the coming three games. No real use in going over the other choices and some love going to Edgar Quero. I like him and at 5’8” coming in at 210 lbs, he makes me feel thin. However, not sure how the White Sox will use him when Lee is back. He may be the starter, but Lee is back soon and knew he would go for more than I was willing to spend on a C2.

I may have pulled the trigger on Morel too soon, but I dropped him.




Hmmm…maybe not a move so radical, but he is off my team. Shame…love the position eligibility. After all 98% of teams still roster him. I have some other pieces to cover those positions and I picked up Emmanuel Valdez for $13 (I gotta change up my bid structure…to consistent). He has been hitting well though he will lose time when Rodriguez comes back unless the Pirates realize he is a better option at second than Adam Frazier. Meh…will troll for better.

Plans




Well…besides that…

Despite some short schedules early, ain’t no way I am sitting Tucker and Betts. I have been using Seattle players Raley and Polanco quite a bit. However, they will face two LHers in the first half of the week, so they are on the bench rather than face the potential of one game played in three. Will use Joey Ortiz (really like him…hope he starts hitting like he did 1H of 2024) and Gabriel Arias (kind of a nice surprise for Cleveland and becoming a swiss arm knife kind of player). Will rebalance the offense for the weekend.

On pitching, I am still riding three closers which I pretty much must do. Relying on third tier closers like I did (Finnegan and Fairbanks) and picking up the Detroit closer du jour Kahnle (already given me three saves…seems to be getting the job done with four hits in 8 2/3, one walk and seven K’s for the year) with my biggest FA purchase to date, I need to ride these horses as long as I can because I know the saves race has a lot that could go wrong.



The next big choice is who will be my sixth starter. Noise is being made that Pablo Lopez will come back for a home start this week, probably against the White Sox on Thursday (or the Angels over the weekend). This makes, in in a 75-pitch outing quite appealing. But like I said, I am falling behind on K’s and Jordan Hicks has two starts in San Francisco (MLW and TEX). I think Hicks is still a good at-home or weaker opponent play, so I am still thinking on this one.



Good luck!

[Edwards Kings]

Amazing what a difference a day makes. Every once in a great while (at least for me) you have “that” night. And my team did and what was a good, grind out those counting stats week into a great week. Saturday night my team generated eight home runs…given we are looking for 11-13 HR a week, that was sweet. This was on top of what was already shaping up to be a pretty good week. There will be bad weather ahead, but it is nice to have this one to put in the memory box for what was once good. For bats, this put me, with the exception of batting average, right at my targets here 4 ½ weeks into the season, which is surprising. The target for weekly AB for the team is 300, and I have not hit that yet. I think this deficit (about 128 AB) is due primarily to too many players from teams that use their benches liberally and too many platoon players.

For the week, I ended up with 51 Runs, 18 HR, and 48 RBIs. Stolen bases were strong as well with five players getting at least one theft and Kyle Tucker getting four. BA was the laggard with 0.2453…not crushing, but definitely not moving the needle enough on the YTD 0.2373. The players I am relying on to bring that number up include Betts (YTD 0.232), Pasquantino (0.181), and Carlos Correa (0.211). Moving on from Jeimer Candelario (0.113) will also help. All this knowing that Hays (0.388 in his 49 YTD AB), Polanco (0.377 in 69 AB in his strong-side platoon role) and Pavin Smith (0.333 also in 69 AB and also one of my strong-side platoon players) will not keep it up. For all the warts, this week for sticks was good enough to place 31st amongst all ME teams and far better than most of my league mates.



The pitching for the week was good with me hitting nearly all the targets and doing better is some. A 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at and both of the non-counting stat categories continues to anchor my teams’ pitching performance. Also got four saves which is strong lead by Fairbanks three (the previous week, it was Finnegan that carried the weight). Of course, I have still been using three closers, but not sure how long this will last because 1) I cannot figure out what Detroit is doing so not sure how Kahnle will be used and 2) the use of three closers is costing me at least one start a week and this is costing me a chance at some wins as well as a few K’s a week. It adds up. Had near target 55 k’s and three wins, though one was from Fairbanks. That means only two wins out of nine games started….far below the 40% wins to games started I need.

On Kahnle, a week ago he got saves in three consecutive outings, has not allowed an earned run since April 11th (his only earned run of the year and he still got the save) and has walked two whole batters in 10 appearances. Vest has been good as well, so week-in and week-out, I am just not sure who is going to get the ball. For fantasy baseball, that is just not good. So A.J. Hinch….



Week 6 FAAB

In our league, we had four players that generated the most interest. First and with the highest winning bid, was the aforementioned Will Vest. Like 35 other leagues, his recent rise to the top of the Tiger bullpen pecking order had him a hot property. NFBC wide, he went for as high as $313 all the way down to $38. In my league, the $257 winning bid was second highest of all 36 winning bids. I had the second place bid of $113, which would have been the outright winner in half of the leagues bidding. I have mixed feelings about losing here…one, though the winner is a true knowledgeable veteran, I would not have bid 25% of my FA budget on someone who I think is a part timer at best. I may be crying in my milk later, but for now I feel OK with this miss.



Another big drain on FA budgets ended up being Agustin Ramirez (52 leagues, winning bids ranging from $493 to $153). I certainly want to upgrade my second catcher, but I again had trouble going all in. The winning bid in my league was $222 and I was not even close to the second place bid. The Marlins will probably be using him mostly at DH, which is good, because the guy can’t catch (and he has allowed like 90% of stolen base attempts to be successful in the minors). My big risk is if the Marlins want him to be the catcher of the future, he has a lot of work to do in the minors. I ended up with part-timer Higashioka and will continue to troll.

The guy I wish I hadn’t dropped last week, Christopher Morel, actually had full time AB last week (all those who still have Morel, please send gratuities). I bid to get him back but again was not close (winning bid $177, runner up $88). My concern with him remains however. When Josh Lowe comes back (should be on rehab assignment as soon as this week), the Rays have Diaz/Aranda at first, Brandon Lowe at 2nd, Caminero at 3rd, and Simpson in CF. That just does not leave much for Morel, unless further injuries occur. Could end up with some starts against LHer, but you never know. So anyway, I just did not want to go big on Morel. To iffy…. I ended up with Luis Urias on a minor bid. Urias will soon be 2B/3B eligible and could give bench coverage until Gelof comes back. I have plenty of FA budget left and I need to spend it on pieces that will have impact for more than a few weeks. Spend, spend, spend, spend.



Plans

I believe Brandon Woodruff will have at least one more minor league start and with the Sounds in Gwinnett this week, I hope to go see him pitch. I have been banking/hoping that he will become, if not an ace, but at least a reliable starter to go with Lopez, Schwellenbach, Castillo, Gray, Flaherty, and Lodolo. Hicks is quite the conundrum. I like pitching him at home, but two of his last three home starts he has given up seven earned runs in the first inning, and zero earned runs in the ten other innings in those starts. He has Colorado, in San Francisco, for his next start which means he may be too (potentially) juicy to sit. On the other hand, if I used Kahnle as a third closer, the pendulum in Detroit could easily swing back as the Tigers have seven games this week. In any regard, Kahnle will be used late, probably in high leverage, and could at least vulture a win if not saves. You can argue it either way.



For bats, two things are complicating this week. One, Seattle has a short, two game schedule for the first half of the week and one of those two pitchers will probably be left-handed. Which brings the second thing in….my Mariner platoon pieces, Polanco and Raley.



That means some bench pieces will be inserted for the first half of the week. I may sit Pavin Smith as well as he could face a left-hander in one of his three games. I need those full-time AB. I held Jeimer Candelario, but he goes to the pine as the Reds are tired of the 0-for the world. To improve my team, I need a corner bat and one MI bat would help as well as we all know Polanco is a sneeze away from the DL.



Good luck!

[Edwards Kings]

Anatomy of a starting pitching slump. After the first two and a half weeks, pitching wise all was good and ERA/WHIP was pristine. Over the last three weeks?



In those three weeks, my team has had twenty –six games started, which is a low number to begin with, so I needed some quality production (i.e. wins and K’s) in counting stats with good average category support. Since luck has smiled on my with saves, I have finally started using seven starters, especially after Pablo Lopez came back from his hammy injury. However, was not to be. Only four wins in 26 starts with only an 8.27 K per nine IP. A 15% win rate and a 92% K-rate is not going to cut it. At least WHIP and ERA haven’t been impacted, right? Nope….over the three weeks a collective a 5.130 ERA and a 1.390 WHIP has dropped me well out of the league lead in those categories.

Only one thing to do…PEP TALK!



On sticks, remember me writing (crowing) about my eight HR night last week? Well, that was the total HR I had all of last week. Given some of my platoon-esque players had some short half-week schedules and faced some lefties as well, getting 277 AB was actually quite good (better if I had hit 300+ AB in prior weeks). The team continued to generate some decent counting stats for RBI, Runs and SB. As of today, I have better than 12.0 points in all batting counting stats except SB, though even in that category the team is slightly above the fold. What is lagging is batting average, which is both concerning and confusing. Pasquantino, Correa, Rafaela, and to a certain extent Mookie are the drag sails on that category. But it is early May and I am still in the hunt, so for me, that is at least something. But it is like….



But will probably be…



Week Six FAAB

A funny thing happened. I had the feeling Coby Mayo was going to be big, big bucks in the FA arena. And he was picked up in 50 leagues. I placed a very middling bid ($34) and strangely enough won. I guess that folks feel Mayo will be sent down as soon as Westburg is back and goodness knows I cannot figure out the Baltimore master plan, but Mayo has little left to prove in AAA Worcester (which I am told is pronounced Wooo-stuh). No wonder Katherine Hepburn spoke funny…



I am not sure I buy the Mayo/Austin Riley comparisons, but the bat is for real and I simply cannot imagine that the Orioles think Ryan O’Hearn is a better option. Since both my players Luke Raley and Jeimer Candelario are hurt, ineffective or both, I wanted to pick up another mix and match piece. In the NFBC, 47 leagues went after Romy Gonzalez. BTW, sorry Casas owners…that just sucked. Anyway, I am not sure I am buying Gonzalez as anything but a bandage at first, even though the pundits seem sure Boston is giving him first crack. Worth a flyer to me, my $33 winning bid was nearer the top than the bottom of all those interested in him as well.

Still looking for that second catcher. My option last week got hurt on Tuesday, so was worthless to me. This weeks crap-sandwich is Freddy Fermin ($31 overkill). KC is keeping Sal Perez in the line-up by hook, crook, and Bengay, but less and less at catcher. Four starts this week would be a plus comparatively, so I am still looking.

And finally, my Jordan Hicks experiment is over. He had Colorado in San Francisco and if he could not dominate there, well, he just ain’t somebody to trust. Two times through the line-up he was gold, then he got blown up in the sixth inning. That was just the most soft-toss start he was every going to have, so I cut bait. My fifth choice to replace Hicks was Hunter Dobbins ($1) who generated more interest than I imagined. Picked up in something like 35 leagues, Dobbins had winning bids from $47 down to my de minimus bid. An unheralded type on a pretty good team, Dobbins has a start in KC that looks pretty good, which is why he was on my radar. I kind of read him like a Bryce Elder type.

Speaking of Elder, I was at the game yesterday against the (damn) Dodgers. While Elder could not get through the third time through the LA line-up, he honestly looked good. The difference maker there (striking out four of the first five batters faced and six total on the day) was he was placing real well his 92-94 MPH sinker. This really set up his slider which ended up with the most swing-and-miss. This week-end in Pittsburgh will probably tell who will be sent down when Strider gets back.

Plans

On bats, barring injury, I have a core that will start every day. Pasquantino and Mayo for now will anchor my corners. Polanco and Correa in the middle. Tucker, Betts, Cruz, Butler, and Hays (when he comes off the DL) in the OF with Pavin Smith as my UT (or OF until Hays comes back). I will use Rafaela (who still can’t get on base enough, but when he does he is generating some decent stats) will by my MI though the pundits seem to feel Roman Anthony will bounce him out of his starting role soon. As CM, I am going with Urias with the Athletics as they are at home all week and balls jump in PCL parks. With Ortiz firmly on my bench until he hits (and I think he will), my UT will be either Gonzalez (BOS), Valdez (PIT), or Arias (CLE). These are all pretty mediocre options that are totally plug and play.

On pitching, since I am still pacing the league in Saves, I hope to use seven starters this week. There is a core here too of Lopez, Schwellenbach, Castillo, Gray, Flaherty and Lodolo. The seventh will be the recently purchased Dobbins. The wait for Woodruff may soon be over as he is scheduled for one more Nashville start (the Sounds were in Gwinnett last week, but he was never scheduled to pitch, so I never saw him dammit). Not sure what we will get out of Woodruff after so long, but I hope, hope, hope he comes back close to his old form.



Have a good week (just not as good as me)!

[Edwards Kings]

Well, this just sucks…to represent what my bats have been doing for two weeks….







You get the picture. Instead of “Hear no evil, See no evil, and Speak no evil”, I have “Can’t hit, Can’t catch, and Throw like a girl”. Sometimes I feel the baseball gods are really messing with my mind, or what is left of it….



In short, for bats last week, I missed every target. Except for Betts and Correa, nobody did nuttin’. Even if they did get a hit, no one got driven in and they spent most of their time at first base sharing recipes.



The pitching was at least better than prior week, but certainly nothing to write home to Mother about. I got two wins out of eight starts (still way below what I need). In three of those starts, there were six IP each, at least a K per IP, only two walks (two of the starts, no walks) and less than a hit per IP. No wins…Did get one win and one save out of the relievers. Not bad, but not good.

But after these two weeks, I have gone straight to the middle of the pack. WHINEWHINEBITCHBITCHGRUMBLEGRUMBLEWIMPERWIMPER.





FAAB

Those interchangeable pieces I have been collecting have flopped miserably and two are now hurt making the decision to replace them easily. The Coby May Experience was short lived and encompassed one whole hit before he got sent down. Many would say as expected. I am in hold mode for a while to see what, if anything happens over the next few weeks. Nobody went all out on anyone this week as there really wasn’t anyone to go all out for. Hyeseong Kim and Jesus Sanchez generated a little above average love and I played in the Kim sweepstakes a bit, but was not even second place. I ended up with Massey on a small bid. He is better than someone on the DL…maybe.

I also picked up Rowdy Tellez…again small bid and we all know what will happen. He gets some AB, hits a few moon shots, we pick him up, he shits the bed and kills our average, we cut him.



There was a little more love for pitching this week. Cade Horton was picked up in every ME league I believe. Winning bids range from $337 down to $45. In my league he was the bid dollar grabber at $94, not by me. Another 45 or so leagues picked up Stephen Kolek, whom I passed on, though his love peaked at $76 and went in my league for $48. Other than Horton, I wanted Landon Knack. I know he is a short timer or 6th starter at best, but he should get one (at home versus the Athletics) and maybe two (again at home versus the Angels). Not much ventured (Knack was picked up in 37 leagues ($75 high bid, my winning bid $31) and the biggest challenge will be Knack going the five IP necessary for the win. We will see. Overall, I am spending my FA money, but have room to spend more as I sit mid-pack in money left…I would feel better if that damn Rey Diaz would spend a little!



Plans

Not much to do but sweat whether or not Oneill Cruz will play and what will happen to Pavan Smith when Lawlar comes up. I am going to start Tellez at UT in hopes of a few dingers. After all, my 0.2357 cumulative team BA can’t get too much worse, can it?

The other big watch is whether or not Brandon Woodruff will get a start this week in Milwaukee against the Twinkies. And whether or not I take a risk and start him. He has had several pretty average rehab starts, so not sure how ready Woodruff is.



Good luck!