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I know it's too early in the baseball off-season, but have you thought at all about where you'd like to draft from this year? Are you hoping for an early pick, a middle round selection or a back-end draft spot? If you had to do your KDS preferences today, do you have any idea what you'd list?



It's interesting to note that our four overall champions have all drafted from different spots. They drafted third in 2004, eighth in 2005, fifth in 2006 and seventh in 2007. Later this week, I'll look at the league champs and see if I can determine where they all drafted from.



Anyway, let's get some baseball talk going with the start of KDS preparation. Without revealing too much, where would you like to draft in 2008? And why?

Good question Greg!



A lot can change from now until draft day, and with that said, I'd probably like an early slot.



My reasoning:

1) it's early yet and I can change my preference any time i want

2) i could be biased from my fantasy football days where early draft slots have experienced more success than any other slots

3) it feels good knowing you are locking up a bona fide stud

It is early but I think this year is different, as they all are. last year I wanted a back end pick which was scred up by my not understanding the kds the way it was listed so I got an 8 pick instead of 15 which nobody wanted. This year however after looking at the mock we have on the boards currently I think you can draft anywhere without much differance. I would currently choose top of the draft on down, but would not be disapointed by getting dumped down to the end. The players they dropped or could drop down there could provide an excellent base to the 2008 team. The top players aren't bad either and you still get nice choices at the 30,31 picks as well as possible 4th and 5th picks also. After that it probably doesn't matter as things get mixed up depending what league your in and the personal preferances that those players have. BTW middle picks look good to me also. This year random picks wouldn't be bad because of the eveness of, or lack of advantage to drafting at any particular spot. At least that's the way I see it now.

Just an FYI Dave: This year if you go to your KDS Settings, you'll find just one column of choices. There should be no screwups this year as admittedly the setup we had last year with two columns was confusing. This year, just post your 15 preferences in order and we'll take it from there. Good luck man.

Okay, I'll try to provide some facts and figures from 2007 on this thread and have some fun with draft spot selections. Out of our Top 20 overall finishers in 2007, they drafted from 12 different spots. Here are the draft spots from our Top 20 overall:



No. 1 - 0

No. 2 - 1 team

No. 3 - 1

No. 4 - 3

No. 5 - 1

No. 6 - 3

No. 7 - 1

No. 8 - 3

No. 9 - 0

No. 10 - 1

No. 11 - 1

No. 12 - 3

No. 13 - 0

No. 14 - 1

No. 15 - 1



Pretty balanced, I'd say, with 10 teams in the top half, 7 teams in the bottom half and 3 teams at No. 8.

Here's where the Top 20 teams drafted from last year:



1. Fat Tub of Goo Terrence Haney (7th spot)

2. Inebriated and loving it Thomas Greenwald (6th spot)

3. CC's Desperados Shawn Childs (12th spot)

4. DOUGHBOYS Dan Kenyon (2nd spot)

5. Guess who? Mark Srebro (6th spot)

6. PACO THYME Paul Weber (6th spot)

7. Mission Impossible IV John Dean (15th spot)

8. TOWNIES John Rundle (3rd spot)

9. Berkshire Juggernauts matt mickle (10th spot)

10. Heads Laurence Edelman (14th spot)

11. The Syndicate Rich Verost (4th spot)

12. Incredible Hulking Us Michael Edelman (4th spot)

13. Puddle of Nud Ned Donohue (4th spot)

14. Captain Grumpy Chris Poulson (5th spot)

15. Bringing down the house Scott Williams (8th spot)

16. Pimpin' Trigger Jr. Jules McLean (11th spot)

17. Frozen Ropes Eddy Betancourt (8th spot)

18. Team Jaffe Douglas Jaffe (12th spot)

19. Pray For Mojo David Biester (8th spot)

20. The Usual Suspects Tom Lord (12th spot)

Okay, let's just take it out one more step and look at where the top 10% of all teams drafted from in 2007. Here's a look at the Top 38 teams out of 375 teams:



No. 1 - 1 team

No. 2 - 2

No. 3 - 2

No. 4 - 4

No. 5 - 3

No. 6 - 6

No. 7 - 1

No. 8 - 3

No. 9 - 0

No. 10 - 1

No. 11 - 1

No. 12 - 6

No. 13 - 2

No. 14 - 4

No. 15 - 2



This time we have 19 of 38 teams in the top half, 16 teams in the bottom half and three at No. 8. Again, pretty balanced. The only team not represented in the Top 10% was draft spot No. 9.

Last one for the day. Here's where the 25 main event league champs drafted from in 2007:



No. 1 - 1 team

No. 2 - 3 teams

No. 4 - 3 teams

No. 5 - 1 team

No. 6 - 6 teams

No. 7 - 1 team

No. 8 - 4 teams

No. 10 - 1 team

No. 11 - 1 team

No. 12 - 1 team

No. 13 - 1 team

No. 14 - 1 team

No. 15 - 1 team



[ October 24, 2007, 07:25 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

I think this makes it pretty clear: if you drafted pujols you didn't 'lock up the stud' as Gekko puts it. I was the only team to get pujols in the 3rd pick - 27 other teams took him 1st and it is clear: when you spend the #1 pick and get 49th overall (according to ESPN player rate) production, you are in for a tough season.



Personally, this year I like mid to late mid rounds, I look for the talent drop off and I think it is a bit deeper this year...

Greg, while we needed all 13 innings of the Monday playoff game to do it (Bless you, Troy Tulowitzki), our team in LV7 did manage to tie for first. So if ties are to be acknowledged there are 26 league winners and a representative from the 1 hole.

Originally posted by Spartacus:

Greg, while we needed all 13 innings of the Monday playoff game to do it (Bless you, Troy Tulowitzki), our team in LV7 did manage to tie for first. So if ties are to be acknowledged there are 26 league winners and a representative from the 1 hole. Yes, you are right. I forgot about that one. I'll add your draft spot to that total. Thanks for the reminder.

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

I think this makes it pretty clear: if you drafted pujols you didn't 'lock up the stud' as Gekko puts it. of course you have to pick the right player

Greg, I was thinking that, providing of course you have the time or inclination, that another interesting angle of the drafting rounds might be: average point total of each drafting position from the 25 main event leagues, as well as average position in the 1-15 standings. Just a (time consuming) thought..........

I like the KDS, but I think it is proof given how balanced the results are at the top that it is not where you draft that makes a difference in the long run. It has more to do with your style and comfort level (and luck and injuries, et al, of course). Usually I am more comfortable in the middle because the time between picks is not so great. Given how vastly successful I have been I may have to reconsider that.



A similar exercise with the 25 8th place teams might be interesting as well. If the middle of the pack teams show the same type of distribution, then it might lend further proof that draft pick does not necessarily have to matter (i.e. no real competitive advantage) other than in personal preference.



[ October 25, 2007, 06:13 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Last one for the day. Here's where the 25 main event league champs drafted from in 2007:



No. 1 - 1 team

No. 2 - 3 teams

No. 4 - 3 teams

No. 5 - 1 team

No. 6 - 6 teams

No. 7 - 1 team

No. 8 - 4 teams

No. 10 - 1 team

No. 11 - 1 team

No. 12 - 1 team

No. 13 - 1 team

No. 14 - 1 team

No. 15 - 1 team What I find interesting about this is that 76% of the winners came out of the top 8 draft spots. I may be mistaken but I thought that a lot of participants felt that the low end picks (12 through 15) were in vogue this past spring. Do these facts indicate that the higher your pick is the better and that the low end picks equate to "even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then"? Having said that, my only league winner came in the year I picked 15th.



Does anyone have this same information compiled for all the years the NFBC has been in place, what I am looking for is the winners by draft spot for all four years combined? Thanks!

I remember that Gordon Gekko and myself were big proponents of drafting as high as possible last year. I think the #s would have been even more skewed towards the top last year if Pujols had done this normal .330/46hr/120-130rbi type of season.



Again, while I think you can win from any place, I do think that where you pick can influence your chance for success within your league. I personally look for where I think the talent fall off is each year. If there are like 30-35 top players, I want to pick early, if there are 45, I want to pick near the end.



Of course, if someone like Ramirez starts hitting 40hr and stealing 60bases, or Reyes starts hitting 25 and stealing 90 consistently, I think you are going to see the drums beat ALLOT louder for bidding on draft positions....