Live Chat For Wednesday Starts Now

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:42 am

Okay, this is the first of what will be a daily (workdays) live chat session where all NFBC members and even non-members can come to vent or boast about their fantasy baseball teams. I realize traffic will be small early on, but in time hopefully we'll have a daily audience and have some fun with this.

We'll do this each day at 3 p.m. EST, so join us. Now let's talk baseball.

I'll start out by venting about my USA Today LABR team, which has resided in ninth place (out of 13) since Day One. Here's the thing with that team: I haven't had an injury yet!! That means one of three things: 1) My players have gotten off to slow starts and better days lie ahead; 2) I had a REALLY bad draft and when the injuries kick in I'm headed for the cellar; or 3) I better start making trades soon.

My main gripe goes out to Tike Redman, who I paid $18 for. He's hitting .210 with one stolen base. He's attempted only one stolen base. What's up there? Andruw Jones hasn't done a thing, Mike Piazza had one good game and Phil Nevin has been quiet.

I like Kerry Wood, Roger Clemens and Matt Clement, but Mike Hampton has been disappointing. Jason Isringhausen also hasn't gotten many save opportunities, so my pitching is marginal.

Can I chalk this team up to a lost season? Maybe, especially if there aren't any inter-league trades soon.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:48 am

I'll even throw some questions out to the group. Who has been your biggest disappointment from Draft Day if you exclude injuries? And who has been your most pleasant surprise from Draft Day?

Again, I'll pick Tike Redman for many of my teams as the biggest disappointment. As far as injured players, I have Jose Reyes in several leagues and need steals desperately. When is he scheduled to rejoin the Mets? Please, someone from New York fill me in on his status as I haven't seen anything written since last Thursday when he tweaked the hamstring in a rehab game.

Also, what's up with Joel Pineiro? Man, has he gotten rocked lately. I'm not pleased. I need more pleasant surprises and fewer disappointments.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:49 am

I'd like for someone to put out a Missing Person's report on Brett Myers and find out who that imposter is who's been stinking up the joint so far. I had him as a $6 keeper in my main league and he's killing me. My team's off to a good start, but Myers has been brutal.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:53 am

Sounds like you are lucky the LABR league isn’t like the English Premiereship League where they kick out the bottom 3-4 teams after each season.

I have always tried to avoid taking players on truly horrid teams, so Tike Redman’s production this year comes as no surprise.

I guess Hampton thinks he’s still in Coors, I too have suffered through him in a few leagues.

How is your MLB.com team doing?

How many of the teams that were lucky to win the A-rod lottery in the NFBC are in the top-20? My guess is none. Although it looks like the Yankees are finally in a groove and A-rod is coming around. On the flipside how many of the Beltran teams are in the top-20? What he’s doing is VERY impressive, especially when you consider how pitiful the Royals have played.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:55 am

I'm obviously not in the NFBC but my team with Beltran is leading our KP Experts League. Gotta say I'm pretty happy with how my first-round pick is playing so far.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:56 am

As far as disappointments, the Seattle Superscrubs have several prime candidates. Randy Winn is a loss so far. Olerud has done next to nothing. I have already dumped Joel Pineiro in a 4x4 ESPN league as his percentages were fast death.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:58 am

Disappointments: Brad Wilkerson is playing like a true stiff. A-rod goes without saying.

Most pleasant surprises: Dave Roberts in the 17th round for me has produced 5th round numbers so far. CC Sabathia looks awesome if he can stay healthy.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 7:58 am

It does seem that things have really smoothed out after the first few weeks. Even this board is getting less and less posts - aside from the normal comments on a certain lizard who posts a lot.

I wouldn't say things are on cruise control but I am sure you are pleased with how things have gone these past few weeks.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:03 am

Must be nice not only to NOT have to sneak posts on to the message board, but actually get PAID to do so. Greg and Tom you guys are living the life. Most of us have to be the master of the “quick click” to the spreadsheet or word document that is in the background of our computer when the boss comes strolling by.

I wonder what this league is costing corporate America in terms of productivity?

SoonerC · Post by **SoonerC** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:08 am

Great idea Greg, this will be fun. I have a tie for my biggest dissapointments with Mike Hampton and Tim Redding each getting half a point, which is a lot less than they are currently costing my team standings wise. Dmitri Young getting hurt didn't help either. As far as positives, I would have to say I got pretty lucky in landing Lew Ford for $3 on the very first Sunday in which he started. I am also very pleased with my catchers Barrett & Martinez, and I hope nobody tells Choi that he isn't that good of a hitter. All in all, I would have to say I am pretty please so far but I hope Dubose walking 7 in 4 innings last night isn't a sign of things to come!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:10 am

The catcher position has been very interesting so far this year. Estrada's become a run-producing machine; Hernandez is really struggling with the Pads; the Giants hate Pierzynski and Mauer got hurt early in the year. I have Mauer in the KP League alongwith Estrada and picked up Hammock for Mauer and now Hammock is tearing it up. I wouldn't mind Mauer staying on the DL for awhile longer the way Hammock is playing.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:15 am

I tell ya one thing I got a kick out of the other day was Maddux and Marquis stealing bases off one another. Gotta love pitchers going for one-upmanship on the basepaths.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:16 am

This was something talked about before the draft but I have finally reached a thought on it. We were asked the best and worst drafting positions. At least for baseball and probably for basketball too, I have come to a pretty solid conclusion. The worst spot in drafting on the far end (11-15 in NFBC). Drafting in the beginning and in the middle is fairly equal but I think the middle may be better. Here is why.

In every draft, there are players who slip. Just about every time you pick there is at least one player you feel should not be there. Drafting in the middle slots means that these slipped players will be available each and every round. You will always get additional value for your picks (based on your own ratings of course). Drafting on the end typically means that only one of your two picks will be a player of additional value. The other player will be of expected value. This makes the ends equal. Drafting on the front end is better than the backside because in baseball 9and basketball) there are certain players who are substantially better "a priori". This means that a team drafting in the 1-5 holes gets a player who is substantially above 1st round quality. The teams drafting up front start off with an edge and will always maintain that edge over those drafting in the back end. The teams drafting in the middle will cut into that edge once in every two rounds, as all their picks are extra value picks. At the end of the draft, I am not sure which of these two situations will prevail.

This whole analysis does not take into account what actually transpires on the field but teams with more extra value players have an increased chance to do well. At the season conclusion, it will be interesting to see just what positions league and overall winners drafted.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:22 am

The WCOFB has not fared well in the number of teams but the NFBC has - certainly in comparison they did. I would suspect that the WCOFB group is considering not holding this type of event next year. They have done very well in football. I don't do football so this isn't my type of event but is there some consideration given about two groups killing the goose that lays the golden eggs or are there enough high-stake football players to properly supports two such leagues?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:25 am

viper, we're going to find out very quickly about the potency of high-stakes events for fantasy football. Including the NFFC and WCOFF, there are about a dozen high-stakes events scheduled for this year. We'll see if all of them pan out and how everything unfolds, but the high-stakes events are clearly becoming a very popular segment of the fantasy industry at this point in time. And without question, WCOFF deserves the credit for blazing that trail and showing how successful such an event can be.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:27 am

Speaking of football I just found out that one of the special guest stars in a fantasy football experts league draft I'm in tomorrow is none other than the Crime Dog himself -- Fred McGriff.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:28 am

Viper,

I agree with a lot of your analysis. Drafting from the #1 I experienced what you were referring to 1st hand: I got A-rod (who had all of 7 RBI’s coming into the week) then Sosa fell to 30 (great value.) Had to take Sexson (who I thought has a 40-50 pick but the power source I needed at the time.) The same type of things happened the rest of the draft (took a Matt Morris / Alex Sanchez combo at 6/7) (Edmonds and Chacon at 10/11.) One guy too early, and one guy with great value the whole day. I would have loved to be sitting on the 5th or 6th pick with Beltran out there ( sure hindsight is 20-20, but across the board he may be the best fantasy player out there this year.)

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:28 am

League questions:

1. Will those silly fractions in the league.v. league standings continue? As a member of NY4, I am happy to see these rankings.

2. Will we eventually be able to see the standings in all 13 leagues?

3, Do you know who the Lizard is and will you spill the beans on his identity? I personally think it beneath anyone to make any type of derogatory posts on any other leagues or teams and still be able to hide behind the cloak of anonymity

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:36 am

The major difference I see between Football and Baseball is the overlap football has to the gambling world. A guy will fly into Vegas and drop $10K on a game without giving it a second thought (or make a phone call to Vinny or off shore.) High stakes football simply doesn’t seem that “high stakes” since a lot of guys drop $1000-1500 a weekend on “action.” Gamblers play fantasy football. A lot of Baseball people do not gamble, they are baseball fans.

The NFL has a great product for the gambling community, they may deny it but they at least are subtlety “embracing” it (look at the pick contests and the posting of lines on the major network shows.) High stakes fantasy football is simply an extension of this.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:36 am

viper, I forwarded your first two questions to STATS. I'll let you know what they say in reply.

[ May 05, 2004, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:38 am

One thing to keep in mind about gambling and the NFL, the NFL is the only professional sports league that prints a detailed list of each team's injury report for its upcoming games. I'm sure that's just for fan interest only.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:38 am

NNOY,

Good point I forgot to mention. Drafting on the end, you often time have to negate the advantage you receive when you get the player who slipped because you then have to reach a little to fulfill a need. This is especially true with scarce category players such as closers and speed merchants. To fail and get a closer a few picks earlier than you would wish means that 20 or so selections will be made before you can then draft a closer. This can be the difference between a solid closer and an iffy one. Drafting in the middle means never having to have that worry.

The middle wins!

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:42 am

Originally posted by viper:

League questions:

3, Do you know who the Lizard is and will you spill the beans on his identity? I personally think it beneath anyone to make any type of derogatory posts on any other leagues or teams and still be able to hide behind the cloak of anonymity The silence of Gekko speaks for itself. I could care less which team is his.

I also think he has the right to his privacy. You know freedom of speech and all that. If he wants to wear a skirt and flame others without having the juice to back it up then so be it. We allow that moron Jim Rome to pollute our airways each day (I’ll never forget the thumping that guy almost took from Jim Everett). So we should allow the Gekko his forum here on the board.

I care about the teams around me in each category and the 14 other teams in my league. I think most of us agree that knowing who the Gekko is isn’t worth the energy it would take to read the post.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:48 am

Nathan, sorry, just got back. My MLB.com team, which is a no transactions league with $5,000 going to the champion, is in fifth place as I have accumulated zero stats from Mark Prior and Jose Reyes. I gambled on both of those guys coming back by early May and can still move up if they both come back strong. But zero stats so far has been a killer.

I'm in second place in the CBS SportsLine.com team and I like that team a lot. I have loads of offense, but need some more pitching. But so far so good as I've hovered between the top two spots most of the first five weeks.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 05, 2004 8:49 am

The thing is that he is one of about a dozen people who are steady posters on this board. Does it really matter? - no, not really, but I do get a bit irritated when he critizes other leagues or owners and doesn't have the "whatevers" to identify himself. I actually don't mind reading him and, as I said, he is one of a few a habitual posters.