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In my mind, it has to be Carlos Pena. I think he will always show 25+HR power, but 40+? Also, a guy who hits 0.242 from 2003-2005 (he only had 33 AB in 2006) does not suddenly become a .280+ hitter. Career year in 2007.

I could tell u who it is, but that would take away all the fun of watching owners select him in the first round

Give me an private IM just for giggles. I will not pass it on and MUCH is going to change between now and February.

Negative on the IM. I can't risk that the info gets leaked. And btw, there are two bona fide first rounders that will be landmines. I'm not sure how bad the regression will be at this point. I'll know more in a few weeks.

Right now I'm concentrating on in depth pitcher evals, since lack of pitching is why I didn't win the 100K



In depth hitter evals will begin in Nov

12 of the top 15 picks from last year regressed. ap probably the most

My pick would be R. Braun. I had him in a couple leagues last year and like him a lot. Don't like the sophmore effect though. With so much success so early Braun and others like him sometimes get a big head I think and stop working and doing the things that got them there. They think hey I made it I can relax now. Others may not adjust as pitchers adjust to them. Still others, like Braun may be poor, or in this case awful, defensively and sometimes this gets carried to the plate with them if maybe they made an error that cost the game last night. It can really mushroom. I think Braun will be a great hitter and maybe he won't suffer the "jinx". As a first round pick though he will do whatever on somebody elses team. Will revisit in 2009. Interseting observation. If I had won the $100,000 in football and finished 5th in baseball I might be hurting my arm patting myself on the back. GG is figuring out what went wrong in baseball. Lesson learned. That may be the most valuable thing I've seen him post in all these years.

Mr Vander: you bet I'm trying to improve. I've said it before, but I think it bears repeating...the only thing that will stop me this year is...me. I no longer stew about injuries or bad performances, I simply overcome them.



The best is yet to come.



ps - that is bad news for the rest of the league

After looking like a baseball powerhouse coming out the gate...



Justin Morneau tanked in 2nd half. I hope people look at his total numbers...but these numbers were UGLY down the stretch when teams needed him most...



AUG (110 ab) .227 and ONE HR.

SEP (93 ab) .215 and TWO HR.



~Lance

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

After looking like a baseball powerhouse coming out the gate...



Justin Morneau tanked in 2nd half. I hope people look at his total numbers...but these numbers were UGLY down the stretch when teams needed him most...



AUG (110 ab) .227 and ONE HR.

SEP (93 ab) .215 and TWO HR.



~Lance For whatever reason, just the opposite of 2006 when he started slow and had an mvp second half.

I don't know if this counts, but I would pick Carl Crawford. I don't know if he counts since every year he is picked, his new owner will post on the message boards that THIS is the year Crawford hits 30 home runs.

Crawford is what he is. He's going to hit over .300, steal over 50 bases, score 100 runs, hit between 10-20 home runs and tank the season in September.

I would call this regression on the basis that Crawford owners expect a progression.



[ October 30, 2007, 02:58 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Gordon Gekko

Originally posted by Sheep:

Gordon Gekko what is your reasoning with this selection?

I'm guessing Sheep is banking on "regression to the mean" but that's only speculation. I'll let Sheep defend his position. Hehe



[ October 30, 2007, 05:01 PM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

Okay, there was one player that was overwhelmingly picked by the panel of "experts" at the Arizona Fall League to regress in 2008. And the reasons they gave certainly convinced me. Using many of the unique numbers that Ron Shandler uses to evaluate and project players (contact rate, BA with balls in play, HR % vs. fly ball %, etc.) this player easily topped out as the player who was very fortunate in 2007 and thus produced eye-gawking numbers.



Now I won't say who it was right now and I hope that anyone who was at the AFL won't chime in right away, but give it some thought and see if you can come up with 1) The player, and 2) The reasons why they projected him to be so bad.



He will be a worthy pick in 2008, but some of these panelists said he may not even be on the MLB roster by season's end. Who is it?

So clue #1 is he has a prospect/another player pushing him for his job, and is either old or not good enough to find another team to hire him?



Hmmmmm.



~Lance

Without looking up anything...Shawn Green and Luis Gonzales pop into mind...but then again you said he was "draft worthy"



~Lance

Gekko - 1st round flop for 2008 has to be my favorite player - Vladimir Guerrero.



Back and arm injuries - even if they get ARod, Vladdy is too much of a 1st round risk IMHO.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

So clue #1 is he has a prospect/another player pushing him for his job, and is either old or not good enough to find another team to hire him?



Hmmmmm.



~Lance He's under 30 and has a guaranteed job on Opening Day. He has no one pushing him for playing time, at least that's not the reason for the pessimism.



You get three questions total!!!

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Without looking up anything...Shawn Green and Luis Gonzales pop into mind...but then again you said he was "draft worthy"



~Lance I said he was draft worthy!!

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Gekko - 1st round flop for 2008 has to be my favorite player - Vladimir Guerrero.



Back and arm injuries - even if they get ARod, Vladdy is too much of a 1st round risk IMHO. Vlad may be a second round pick this year from the looks of things.

BJ Upton?

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

So clue #1 is he has a prospect/another player pushing him for his job, and is either old or not good enough to find another team to hire him?



Hmmmmm.



~Lance He's under 30 and has a guaranteed job on Opening Day. He has no one pushing him for playing time, at least that's not the reason for the pessimism.



You get three questions total!!! [/QUOTE]Ok...I think I have it now.



Looking deeper into the 2007 stats and considering the fly ball and contact ratios...



My choice to regress to the point of being cut or benched in 2008 has to be...Matt Holiday OF COL.



~Lance

brad fullmer

Keep 'em coming!!! I'm going to pimp Ron's Baseball Forecaster on this one because this is the type of data you can only find there. It might eventually be wrong indicators, but they sure grabbed my eye. We'll have fun with this and I'll add some more info from the conference for the next few weeks to get us through the doldrums of November. They had "most likely to break out" players as well, which we can get to later.



C'mon, let's get this one right!!!