NFBC Message Boards

I have always had a difficult time assessing value when it comes to players with stolen bases.

One of my major faults has always been a lack of stolen bases (had 3 points in stolen bases last year in a winner-take-all satellite but still managed to lose by only 2 points)



IMHO, I have Garrett Atkins and David Wright at about dead even in 4 out of 5 categories in 2008. So, how much value does David Wright have if he's Garrett Atkins with 25-30 stolen bases? I'm not sure if Wright is worth a 1st round pick if you think those stolen bases will regress a bit. Those 30 stolen bases look incredible when you consider the whole package, but how incredible does he look with say, 18-20 stolen bases? Still very, very good, but not top 5 good?



With that being said, I personally wouldn't take him in the first 12 picks but I know there are quite a few people who think he should be top 8, or even top 5.

One component is that he's still very young and looks like he's still maturing.



I think it's easy to get overly excited about his stolen base potential, but many young stars curb their stealing appetite after they establish their power game.



So I guess when evaluating him, the key ingredient is whether you think he'll continue to steal bases at his rate last year.

I am not sure I agree with your basic argument that Atkins and Wright are the same for the four categories other than SB. I personally have Wright as very much a power hitter (30-35) and Atkins as ML average or slightly higher (15-20) in HR. I have Wright with slightly more RBI's (10%), but have him as much better a run scorer. I know Atkins has hit for better average, but I have him as a .300 hitter (no slouch), whereas Wright I think is a .320 hitter.



Wright is remarkably consistent for his age as well.

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I am not sure I agree with your basic argument that Atkins and Wright are the same for the four categories other than SB. I personally have Wright as very much a power hitter (30-35) and Atkins as ML average or slightly higher (15-20) in HR. I have Wright with slightly more RBI's (10%), but have him as much better a run scorer. I know Atkins has hit for better average, but I have him as a .300 hitter (no slouch), whereas Wright I think is a .320 hitter.



Wright is remarkably consistent for his age as well. Part of my reasoning is that I think Atkins will have a much better year this year and I expect Wright to regress slightly.



What's interesting is that Atkins 2006 compares favorably (minus SB's) to Wright's 2007, and Wright's 2006 compares favorably to Atkins' 2007. So, they flip-flopped a little bit making it difficult to predict who will fare better in 2008.



As far as difference in power, it looks like Wright averages 27 1/2 homers a year the last 3 years and Atkins averages 27 homers the last 2 years. I think there power is closer than you think. But I would agree with you that Wright has more power potential especially when comparing minor league numbers.



I'm actually kind of surprised Atkins didn't show up in the Mitchell report. That guy is supposed to be a .320 hitter with 15 homer power coming out of the minors.



One thing to note with regards to drafting Atkins is the potential that he get traded later in the year which would obviously hinder his numbers quite a bit. Ian Stewart is knocking on the door but it looks like Ian might be moving to 2nd base which could reap some decent production out of the 1st year player.



[ December 19, 2007, 01:20 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]

I think Wright belongs where he is (top 5) based on 5 cats and excellent at all 5. I'm not counting on 30 sb's, but think 20 something is fine. You'll find in the main event sb's go earlier. You can't punt a catagory in the main event and expect to win it all. Not saves, sb's or anything else. Punting a catagory in sats is common and sometimes pays off. The only guys who have done well in the main event, that I know of, punting a cat is the Thelen's I believe who punt Saves and have won their league twice and done fairly well overall, but obviously have not won the whole enchillada yet. Wright is WAY ahead of Atkins at this point.

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I am not sure I agree with your basic argument that Atkins and Wright are the same for the four categories other than SB. I personally have Wright as very much a power hitter (30-35) and Atkins as ML average or slightly higher (15-20) in HR. I have Wright with slightly more RBI's (10%), but have him as much better a run scorer. I know Atkins has hit for better average, but I have him as a .300 hitter (no slouch), whereas Wright I think is a .320 hitter.



Wright is remarkably consistent for his age as well. Part of my reasoning is that I think Atkins will have a much better year this year and ***I expect Wright to regress slightly***.



What's interesting is that Atkins 2006 compares favorably (minus SB's) to Wright's 2007, and Wright's 2006 compares favorably to Atkins' 2007. So, they flip-flopped a little bit making it difficult to predict who will fare better in 2008. [/QUOTE]*** WHY would you expect Wright to regress from last year? Just because he improved from his first three years? There may be further growth ahead (look at his second half numbers) if he gets off to a better start in 2008.



While I like Atkins, even if they were equal in the other categories and I agree with Wayne that they are NOT, the 20-30 additional stolen bases are HUGE.

as usual i agree with vander. plus wrights speed will lead to 20 more runs scored if ave and power are close. he also plays in a better lineup. the thing about top 5 picks- 80% of the time they regress- but most are still good picks. wright probably will regress but seems like a good safe bet to help in all 5 categories.

Originally posted by Vander:

I think Wright belongs where he is (top 5) based on 5 cats and excellent at all 5. I'm not counting on 30 sb's, but think 20 something is fine. You'll find in the main event sb's go earlier. You can't punt a catagory in the main event and expect to win it all. Not saves, sb's or anything else. Punting a catagory in sats is common and sometimes pays off. The only guys who have done well in the main event, that I know of, punting a cat is the Thelen's I believe who punt Saves and have won their league twice and done fairly well overall, but obviously have not won the whole enchillada yet. Wright is WAY ahead of Atkins at this point. Well, remember this, if Wright gets 20 stolen bases and Atkins gets 5 (career high I know) then there's only a 15 stolen base discrepancy to go along with my expectation they will have VERY similar numbers in the other 4 cats.



I could very well be wrong about Wright (that sounds strange when saying out loud) but I think when drafting you have to find value based on chances of potential performance, and my money is on him not giving top 5 value.

hook- i am with crazy here- expecting a guy to "regress" after 3 straight improving seasons is reasonable. he could also move forward. i would say a players arc just doesn't go up every single year. 34 steals- which give him the big 5 value- is where i would probably say he regresses. but i am with you and vander- still a top 5 pick in my book.

your right again crazy- but you keep taking 5 steal guys- and i keep taking 20 steal guys and then you find out why you got 3 steal points. guys that CAN do 30-30 are real real hard to find. corners that go 20 100 100 aren't

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I am not sure I agree with your basic argument that Atkins and Wright are the same for the four categories other than SB. I personally have Wright as very much a power hitter (30-35) and Atkins as ML average or slightly higher (15-20) in HR. I have Wright with slightly more RBI's (10%), but have him as much better a run scorer. I know Atkins has hit for better average, but I have him as a .300 hitter (no slouch), whereas Wright I think is a .320 hitter.



Wright is remarkably consistent for his age as well. Part of my reasoning is that I think Atkins will have a much better year this year and ***I expect Wright to regress slightly***.



What's interesting is that Atkins 2006 compares favorably (minus SB's) to Wright's 2007, and Wright's 2006 compares favorably to Atkins' 2007. So, they flip-flopped a little bit making it difficult to predict who will fare better in 2008. [/QUOTE]*** WHY would you expect Wright to regress from last year? Just because he improved from his first three years? There may be further growth ahead (look at his second half numbers) if he gets off to a better start in 2008.



While I like Atkins, even if they were equal in the other categories and I agree with Wayne that they are NOT, the 20-30 additional stolen bases are HUGE. [/QUOTE]There could be further growth ahead for Atkins as well who also had a very strong 2nd half.



And like I said before, their power is very close and Atkins is very capable of scoring a ton of runs.



But those stolen bases are "HUGE". I just think top 5 pick, you're not getting value there. Chances are his stolen bases will regress. So, with that being said, why would you buy high?



I've heard, even if his stolen bases regress he's still top 5? Do you guys really believe that? The only way that would happen is if he hits 40 homers with 20 stolen bases and that's unlikely.

Originally posted by headhunters:

your right again crazy- but you keep taking 5 steal guys- and i keep taking 20 steal guys and then you find out why you got 3 steal points. guys that CAN do 30-30 are real real hard to find. corners that go 20 100 100 aren't good point.

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I have always had a difficult time assessing value when it comes to players with stolen bases.

One of my major faults has always been a lack of stolen bases (had 3 points in stolen bases last year in a winner-take-all satellite but still managed to lose by only 2 points)



IMHO, I have Garrett Atkins and David Wright at about dead even in 4 out of 5 categories in 2008. So, how much value does David Wright have if he's Garrett Atkins with 25-30 stolen bases? I'm not sure if Wright is worth a 1st round pick if you think those stolen bases will regress a bit. Those 30 stolen bases look incredible when you consider the whole package, but how incredible does he look with say, 18-20 stolen bases? Still very, very good, but not top 5 good?



With that being said, I personally wouldn't take him in the first 12 picks but I know there are quite a few people who think he should be top 8, or even top 5.

One component is that he's still very young and looks like he's still maturing.



I think it's easy to get overly excited about his stolen base potential, but many young stars curb their stealing appetite after they establish their power game.



So I guess when evaluating him, the key ingredient is whether you think he'll continue to steal bases at his rate last year. In addition to more SBs, Wright also hits in a better slot (more ABs) and for a potent offense (more R/RBI), walks more and has more power all at a younger age. Wright was worth more than double Atkins $value last season, and likely will be again.

Yes, I really believe it. He may not be top 5 after the seasons over. As HH points out many many dissapoint taken that high, but that's true of whoever you take there. It's hard to maintain that level or improve. Who would you rather take there? I'd gamble on Wright as much or more than anybody else (with less than 5 exceptions). BTW as discussed in another thread, what is value in the first round? Especially top 5. I can see drafting 14 or 15 and a guy drops that s/b top 5. That would be value. Haney did find value with AROD at #7 last year, but there's not much value in the first round. Take a very good safe guy that can help in as many cats as possible. Wright seems to fit the bill. At least for me.

IMHO, any 30-30 player that hits for average is EXTREMELY worthy, and i can't think of any reason why wright should regress at his age and with the MLB experience now.

I agree with crazy where i think their power is pretty close.i HAD A BET WITH SHAWN LAST YEAR THAT Wright wouldnt hit over 30 homers[we tied],a lot of his homers just made it, one even hit on top of the fence falling over.[damn should have been 29]In the 2nd half of 2006 he hit like 6 or 7 homers.Im not sold on him being a 35 homerun guy or more.I think he's more a 24 to 27 guy with lots of rbi's and runs.The stolen bases im just not sure but would expect 20.

just my opinion and i wouldnt take him in the top 5.

Eddie, If Wright were 29 or 30, I might agree with you more as it could be a sign that he had peaked. But at his age (25 for the 2008 season), I think there is a greater chance that some of those "just enough" HR's will turn into "just wave at them as they go by" HR's and they will bring some of there cousins with him.





I have Wright as more of a power hitter because he has the results. With the 30 HR's last year, he also hit 42 Doubles (I think something like 30 or 32 MLB hit 40+ doubles last year). He has good speed (I personally think he is a smart baserunner as opposed to having blinding speed), so his GB rate does not hurt him. He hits nearly as many LD (23%) as Howard (24%), but does not have a high FB rate, which is probably a good thing in his home park (66% of his FB were outs).





Atkins is 28, has yet to hit 30 despite playing half his games in Coors which is still a better ball park for hitters even with "soggy" balls compared to the Mets stadium. Atkins hit MORE LD (24%) and FB than Wright, but did not get the same results (less 2B and less HR), which I admit is may seem strange. Wright has Beltran to hit after him, and Atkins has Hawpe (who is no slouch but is no Beltran). But, given the number of balls Atkins puts in the air (44% FB of which a whopping 78% are outs), it may be Atkins that has warning track power.



Just thoughts.

I think from listening to most of you, it's not necessarily Wright who is overrated, but maybe that Atkins is underrated.



Eddie, you mention Atkins having an advantage in Coors Field. Well, definitely an advantage no doubt, but he did hit 5 more homers on the road last year than at home and for his career has only 2 more homers at home vs. road.



As far as doubles, you say Wright had 40 doubles which he does every year and for a young player could translate to more power down the road, but don't forget Atkins had 48 doubles in 2006 to go along with 29 homers, 18 of which came in his last 73 games. Last year, he had 23 homers in his last 105 games, showing he has just as much potential to hit for more power.



So, in essence, I think it's very possible I'm underrating Wright's stolen base value, but it's also possible you're underrating Atkins overall value.

I hear you. But we are talking about a matter of degrees. We are talking Wright as a 5th vs a 10th-pick. And I believe most of us have Akins in the top 30 or top 40 hitters so realistically, how much further up could he move!

One more question as pointed out here Atkins, as well as Holiday and the other Rocks had a big second half as we all know. The hitters hit in Sept of 06 as well. Dan has said this had to do with the normal himidity levels returning to Den. in Sept. of 06. My question is how bout 07. Did the same thing happen? If so, taking Col. hitters may depend on the weather as to what kind of #'s they put up. This could cause their #'s to go up or down depending on normal weather or not. Could this be the first baseball related climate change casulty? #'s at Coors have been down the last few years coinciding with the humidity change. The humidor had no effect for the first few years in use. Only after the natural himidity changed did we see a change in stats. Would welcome any responces from any Col. natives. Especially Dan.

Our weather patterns have changed over the last few years. In the past humidity was a rarity. Combine that with high altitude and zoom, you've got balls careening in the grandstands. The humidor, in my opinion, has affected play at Coors very little. O'Dowd decided to play small ball coinciding with the humidor and the press ran with how effective the humidor was and those stories have never stopped. Since then, we actually do get humidity here and that has leveled the playing field .

Don't get me wrong, still a great place to hit, its just not Wrigley with the wind blowing 40 mph straight out to center field. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I think I read that Coors doesen't even rank as the #1 hitters park anymore and that is with a great lineup and a mediocre staff.

As for the Wright-Atkins debate, leaving sb's out of the picture it is a valid one. Wright has shown that he will get his numbers hitting anywhere in the lineup. Atkins is in a perfect storm, he is hitting behind two on base machines in Holliday and Helton with Hawpe in back for protection.

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Our weather patterns have changed over the last few years. In the past humidity was a rarity. Combine that with high altitude and zoom, you've got balls careening in the grandstands. The humidor, in my opinion, has affected play at Coors very little. O'Dowd decided to play small ball coinciding with the humidor and the press ran with how effective the humidor was and those stories have never stopped. Since then, we actually do get humidity here and that has leveled the playing field .

Don't get me wrong, still a great place to hit, its just not Wrigley with the wind blowing 40 mph straight out to center field. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I think I read that Coors doesen't even rank as the #1 hitters park anymore and that is with a great lineup and a mediocre staff.

As for the Wright-Atkins debate, leaving sb's out of the picture it is a valid one. Wright has shown that he will get his numbers hitting anywhere in the lineup. Atkins is in a perfect storm, he is hitting behind two on base machines in Holliday and Helton with Hawpe in back for protection. Great post.



Without looking at the numbers I would say Philly is probably the biggest homerun park. I think Coors is honestly more geared to help batting average than homers.



I've always thought that Coors Field could have a negative effect on Rockies hitters on the road because balls don't fly nearly as far and could hurt their confidence quite a bit. Although you can look at it the other way, their confidence coming out of Coors Field could be soaring so it's two-fold.

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I hear you. But we are talking about a matter of degrees. We are talking Wright as a 5th vs a 10th-pick. And I believe most of us have Akins in the top 30 or top 40 hitters so realistically, how much further up could he move! True.

fenway, wrigley= most runs. philly, cinci, = most homers

Originally posted by headhunters:

fenway, wrigley= most runs. philly, cinci, = most homers Really? Wrigley surprises me, it seemed the wind was blowing in all year and they had a good staff, I would have bet that Cinci and Philly would have had more runs. Interesting.

The wind does blow in far more often in recent years than it used too. When the wind blows in it's alomst impossible to hit it out. Where as if it's blowing out, I've seen shortstops going out to catch a popup, then oops, it's over the fence. Maybe on Waveland.