Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 3:04 am

We're happy to welcome our good friend Jeff Erickson from RotoWire.com to our boards for a chat today at 2 p.m. ET. Jeff is one of the best fantasy baseball experts around so we're happy he's taking some time out of his schedule to join us today. He'll be here for an hour so bring your questions and let's have some fun today.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:36 am

By the way, I'll be on Jeff's XM Radio show today at 12:05 EST to talk about the NFBC and baseball in general. If you have the time, tune in. See ya in 30 minutes Jeff.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:39 am

I'll lead off with a question about the XM Radio show and a bit more Jeff:

1. Do you think the Fantasy Baseball show you do on XM Radio has helped spread the growth of fantasy baseball? Do you think more baseball fans are learning about fantasy baseball and possibly playing it for the first time through shows like the one you guys do on XM for baseball and football?

2. Do you think the fantasy tid-bits on ESPN News are as good today with Ravitz and Matthew Berry as they were when you were on all of the time?

What is your opinion of the way ESPN has really stepped up its fantasy coverage online, its fantasy hiring of writers online and their increased TV exposure to fantasy sports, especially fantasy football?

3. How much does A-Rod go for in LABR? How about Hanley, Reyes and David Wright in the NL?

See ya in Vegas on March 15th for the NFBC main event. Be ready as these guys and gals can eat you up.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:31 am

Jeff, thanks for dropping by.

Most of the fantasy baseball fanatics have been following who is hurt, who has had surgery, and who is recovering. Some big name players have popped up recently (Pujols for example). As you look into your crystal ball, which player(s) do you suspect may be injured, but the injury hasn't been made "common" knowledge yet?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:35 am

In an auction, is this the year to do "Stars and Scrubs", or is this the year to let other owners bleed a little money, then purchase your team with players with more "balanced" values?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:53 am

I'll toss out a question with a local flavor. Last season, we saw Bill Hall's production tail off significantly as he moved from 3B to CF. Do you think moving back to 3B will help him and do you have any concerns about Ryan Braun's production as he learns a new position in LF?

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:58 am

Jeff,

1. How high do you think Santana will go now that he is on the Mets?

2. What is the latest you would wait before picking your first starting pitcher in an NFBC main event draft?

3. How much of a factor is position scarcity when you are ranking your hitters?

Thanks for your time.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:16 am

How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?

Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.

What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?

I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:21 am

Jeff,

Thanks for the chat.

Couple more personal questions:

1. Why did you decide to join the NFBC this year?

2. What kept you from joining in previous years?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:22 am

Regarding Troy Tulowitzki.

Does Troy's expected batting order slot at #2 affect his value this year positively or negatively.

The obvious effect is more runs, less rbi's, but it's hard for me to distinguish what's better, Troy hitting #6 or Troy hitting #2.

I would think, getting more rbi's out of shortstop position would be more beneficial than more runs. Maybe I'm thinking too hard on this one.

All and all, would you say Troy should be drafted with the expectation of an even better year in 2008?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:34 am

By the way, thanks for helping us out Jeff.

It seems as though, after Johan and Peavy, the next best pitchers have some question marks.

Bedard: Even with all the potential he showed last year, isn't it still risky drafting him in the 3rd or 4th round considering a couple reasons: Will his output warrant his draft slot? Is it smart to expect a full season without injury from him at this point?

Sabathia: Career highs in every category, the one that jumps out is innings pitched. Sure to regress.

Hamels: Too much injury potential?

Felix Hernandez: Looks like he can breakout, but haven't we been saying that for a couple years now?

What's amazing with this year's draft, is there are so many question marks from pitchers in the early rounds, I actually feel round 8 and later in drafts there is much more chance for improvement on last year's numbers as opposed to round 3-6 pitchers.

Based on this philosophy, what kind of strategy would be best to employ using later round pitchers without sacrificing pitching too much?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:44 am

Jeff,

Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?

Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?

Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?

Thanks!

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:49 am

Which of these top rated rookies do you see makes the biggest fantasy impact this season?

Bruce, Longoria, Votto, Buchholz, Soto or Adam Jones?

JohnP · Post by **JohnP** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:00 am

You are sitting at pick 12. Braun, Fielder, and Howard are all available. Who do you like and why?

Lidge, Corpas, and Street have all been going around pick 120. Of these, who has the best chance of putting up the best stats in your opinion?

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:02 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I'll lead off with a question about the XM Radio show and a bit more Jeff:

1. Do you think the Fantasy Baseball show you do on XM Radio has helped spread the growth of fantasy baseball? Do you think more baseball fans are learning about fantasy baseball and possibly playing it for the first time through shows like the one you guys do on XM for baseball and football?

2. Do you think the fantasy tid-bits on ESPN News are as good today with Ravitz and Matthew Berry as they were when you were on all of the time?

What is your opinion of the way ESPN has really stepped up its fantasy coverage online, its fantasy hiring of writers online and their increased TV exposure to fantasy sports, especially fantasy football?

3. How much does A-Rod go for in LABR? How about Hanley, Reyes and David Wright in the NL?

See ya in Vegas on March 15th for the NFBC main event. Be ready as these guys and gals can eat you up.

1. Yeah, absolutely, more people play this great game the more I hear about it. We've definitely had a bunch of first-time fantasy players because they've listened to the show, or they've heard it talked about on tv, or read about it.

2. You're cruel. I miss doing tv, but of course Nate, Matt et al do a great job. It was a matter of time before one of the "big boys" got serious about their fantasy coverage, and the WWL is the biggest game in town. I don't think it's a threat to other companies, however, because they're bringing in so many new players to the hobby.

3. A-Rod: $45-50. Ramirez, Reyes will both go over $40, and Wright will probably be right at $40 or so.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:04 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Jeff, thanks for dropping by.

Most of the fantasy baseball fanatics have been following who is hurt, who has had surgery, and who is recovering. Some big name players have popped up recently (Pujols for example). As you look into your crystal ball, which player(s) do you suspect may be injured, but the injury hasn't been made "common" knowledge yet? Tough question, because my crystal ball can get a little cloudy with these sort of issues. The type of guys I try to avoid here, however, are pitchers with persistent elbow/shoulder injuries that yet have avoided surgery. Often it's a case of surgery-delayed, rather surgery-avoided. Bartolo Colon a couple of years ago comes to mind as an example. One guy this year, albeit just an endgame consideration, is Noah Lowry. He won't be on any of my teams.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:07 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

In an auction, is this the year to do "Stars and Scrubs", or is this the year to let other owners bleed a little money, then purchase your team with players with more "balanced" values? Without avoiding the question entirely, I think "it depends" is the best answer. Is this a 12-team mixed league? An AL or NL only league? How good is the competition? If it's a 15-team mixed approach, I think I might be a little aggressive and try a bit of a Stars-and-Scrubs approach, trying to save some money on starting pitching in particular. In my deeper leagues, against tougher competition, I'd be more inclined to have a balanced approach.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:08 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Jeff, thanks for dropping by.

Most of the fantasy baseball fanatics have been following who is hurt, who has had surgery, and who is recovering. Some big name players have popped up recently (Pujols for example). As you look into your crystal ball, which player(s) do you suspect may be injured, but the injury hasn't been made "common" knowledge yet? I just thought of another example - Curt Schilling and his shoulder. I'm listening to "The Baseball Beat" on XM right now, and they're talking about his shoulder right now.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:11 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I'll toss out a question with a local flavor. Last season, we saw Bill Hall's production tail off significantly as he moved from 3B to CF. Do you think moving back to 3B will help him and do you have any concerns about Ryan Braun's production as he learns a new position in LF? I do think it'll help Hall out some; if you recall, Hall was pretty awful out there in CF, especially early in the season (I seem to remember games against the Reds and the Marlins in particular where he looked lost out there).

I'm less concerned about Braun, at least in terms of the position switch. There's likely going to be a bit of a drop-off in terms of his batting average anyhow - as has been pointed out by a couple of my readers, his platoon split was pretty huge, in that he just murdered lefties. He's still a pretty solid first-rounder, but Miggy Cabrera (for example) is a safer batting average play.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:12 am

Jeff,

As an industry guy I would think joining the nfbc is a no win situation for you? If you win you were expected to do so right? If you get smoked and finish dead last like Matt Berry did- that cannot be real good for business I would think?

Tough situation to be in, but I am glad you joined and look forward to meeting you in Vegas.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:16 am

Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot?

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:17 am

Originally posted by freddiezee:

Jeff,

1. How high do you think Santana will go now that he is on the Mets?

2. What is the latest you would wait before picking your first starting pitcher in an NFBC main event draft?

3. How much of a factor is position scarcity when you are ranking your hitters?

Thanks for your time. 1. Santana probably goes in the first round in most leagues. Before the trade, I had him at #17 overall; he's probably about 14 or 15 now. That said, I don't want to be that guy taking him there. I really hate taking a starter that early - you can do it (and from what Greg said on-air today, Gordon Gekko here in this group did so and did well), but it really lessens your margin for error on offense, and forces you to follow up Santana with other earlier starting pitchers.

2. Probably the 7th or 8th round. I'm eager to test it out in the main event - I know I'll be up against a lot of skilled players, but I still think that if there are bargains to be had, it'll be with starting pitching.

3. Positional scarcity is a definite factor, but I think that it can be overdone. I won't be taking a catcher in the first two rounds, for example, but if one of the "M's" is waiting for me around #55, for instance, I'll probably take him.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:21 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?

Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.

What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?

I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:

.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:22 am

Jeff,

as a fantasy writer AND player name a couple writers/analysts/columnists/beat reporters in the industry who YOU view as usually spot on when evaluating/discussing a player.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:23 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Jeff,

Thanks for the chat.

Couple more personal questions:

1. Why did you decide to join the NFBC this year?

2. What kept you from joining in previous years? RotoWire really needed to have a presence in the NFBC, and I've personally wanted to participate for a few years now. I have two young girls, though (age 3 and age 1), so it's pretty hard for me to get away more than I already do in March. I'm locked into Tout Wars every year, and I've been locked into LABR in the past. This year, however, I was able to swap out LABR with another member of RotoWire in order to do NFBC. I can't wait!