How good are the MDC Projections?

bluenose · Post by **bluenose** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:39 pm

I draft what I consider to be reasonable teams in the mock drafts; I continually project out to the bottom half. I had a team I considered "stacked" yesterday and I was middle of the pack.

Is this something I should be worried about, or are their projections a bit wonky?

They don't seem to like younger players.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:54 pm

Originally posted by bluenose:

I draft what I consider to be reasonable teams in the mock drafts; I continually project out to the bottom half. I had a team I considered "stacked" yesterday and I was middle of the pack.

Is this something I should be worried about, or are their projections a bit wonky?

They don't seem to like younger players. I would honestly not even look at their projections. It looks like it doesn't take a lot of things into consideration.

Go by your own projections, create a well balanced team, and you should be fine. If you start looking at how they project your team, it'll screw you up.

Case in point, let's say you draft a player they project to have 350 at-bats worth of production based on injury history. Well, that doesn't exactly take into consideration the fact that you have a bench player to fill in.

I would throw their projections out the door.

Maybe I'm alone on this I don't know, but I would never use somebody else's projections to determine how good of a draft I had. I let the season determine that.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:36 am

Originally posted by bluenose:

I draft what I consider to be reasonable teams in the mock drafts; I continually project out to the bottom half. I had a team I considered "stacked" yesterday and I was middle of the pack.

Is this something I should be worried about, or are their projections a bit wonky?

They don't seem to like younger players. I would not be worried. I also think you should consider them, but only as one part of your overall network of information. Take your projections, the projections of other publications you respect and read, MDC, ADP, etc., etc. Like a puzzle, it is a mistake to overly rely on any one piece.

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:48 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I would throw their projections out the door.

Maybe I'm alone on this I don't know, but I would never use somebody else's projections to determine how good of a draft I had. I let the season determine that. Crazy is always ridiculed for his drafts, but always ends up in the top three.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:54 am

Originally posted by Dub:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I would throw their projections out the door.

Maybe I'm alone on this I don't know, but I would never use somebody else's projections to determine how good of a draft I had. I let the season determine that. Crazy is always ridiculed for his drafts, but always ends up in the top three. [/QUOTE]if i was someone like that, i'd find a path to make it into the main event. if i couldn't find a path, i'd make a path.

placing second or third in a small dollar satellite is like winning a yahoo or espn league, i.e. means nothing.

[ February 09, 2008, 07:58 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:19 am

Each projection differs from the last. Bill James overprojects for youngsters who had a good September, while MDC thinks of youngsters as inexperienced and have no claim to a job. Shandler also, as a rule, does not dole out huge projections for youngsters.

Mark, taking from your last post would this be a fair assessment as to level of play?

Home Leagues - A-AA

Yahoo, ESPN - AA

Satelite Leagues - AA-AAA

NFBC Main - The Bigs

How would you classify magazine mocks and "expert" drafts such as Tout Wars, etc?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:52 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

.

Mark, taking from your last post would this be a fair assessment as to level of play?

Home Leagues - A-AA

Yahoo, ESPN - AA

Satelite Leagues - AA-AAA

NFBC Main - The Bigs

How would you classify magazine mocks and "expert" drafts such as Tout Wars, etc? Home leagues - A

Yahoo/ESPN - A

Low entry fee NFBC satellites - AA

Magazine - AA/AAA

High entry fee NFBC satellites - AAA

NFBC Main - The Bigs

Tout Wars I don't know much about.what's the entry fee, prizes, barriers to entry, etc...If I had to make an uneducated guess, I'd probably say AA or PCL AAA for hitters

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:52 am

Originally posted by Dub:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I would throw their projections out the door.

Maybe I'm alone on this I don't know, but I would never use somebody else's projections to determine how good of a draft I had. I let the season determine that. Crazy is always ridiculed for his drafts, but always ends up in the top three. [/QUOTE]Crazy has only participated in one NFBC-style draft, though it was so hyped that you could think it's been a recurring event.

[ February 09, 2008, 09:53 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:05 am

Our projections come directly from the fine folks at Baseball HQ, Big Dawg Baseball and sometime soon, FantasyBaseball.com -- three of the most respected sites in the industry.

When you look at the projections, you can get an average of all the sites combined, or take a look at how a certain site thinks your team will perform. I'd suggest not using it as the be-all/end-all of how you should draft, but rather as a tool to identify trends, and strengths and weaknesses in your draft strategy.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:20 am

While I agree that the NFBC has the best overall competition I don't think people should be so fast to discount home leagues...I am in a few good home leagues with owners that would stand toe to toe with any of the people in this event..they choose not to compete due to lack of time or $$$ so I don't think we should be so quick to write these people off...just my 2 cents

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:25 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

While I agree that the NFBC has the best overall competition I don't think people should be so fast to discount home leagues...I am in a few good home leagues with owners that would stand toe to toe with any of the people in this event..they choose not to compete due to lack of time or $$$ so I don't think we should be so quick to write these people off...just my 2 cents I'm speaking general terms. Obviously, there could be some great owners that don't play due to lack of money or time. With that said, owners like that are in the minority, and when $1,300 of your own money is on the line, those good "home league" owners would likely feel a lot more pressure and make different decisions.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:38 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

While I agree that the NFBC has the best overall competition I don't think people should be so fast to discount home leagues...I am in a few good home leagues with owners that would stand toe to toe with any of the people in this event..they choose not to compete due to lack of time or $$$ so I don't think we should be so quick to write these people off...just my 2 cents Lack of time and money is the differince though. Its human nature that the more time and money that you put in to a project, the more that you will feel vested and pay attention to that project. Thus, competition is kicked up a notch.

Of course some home leagues are hotly contested, but on average most fizzle when one, two, or three frontrunners show themselves, the others, naturally, lose interest. Same with Yahoo and ESPN and satelites. Thats the magic of the NFBC Main, even when a team in a league takes off most teams will play to the end for weekly and overall prizes. Failing that, they'll play for pride and a better spot in the lifetime standings.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:56 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

While I agree that the NFBC has the best overall competition I don't think people should be so fast to discount home leagues...I am in a few good home leagues with owners that would stand toe to toe with any of the people in this event..they choose not to compete due to lack of time or $$$ so I don't think we should be so quick to write these people off...just my 2 cents I would agree that home league have good players, but there a lot of home league players who are good because they prey on the weak links in the leagues.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:02 am

Ive been in my home league since 1993, its a American league 11 team league.This league is always tough to win, and has a couple NFBC guys.

Scott Williams [Bringing Down the House finished 15 overall last year.David Detterra who has won the ultimate in NY.sOME OF THE OTHER GUYS SHOULD PLAY IN THE NFBC but just wont put up the money.

The entry fee in our league is 550 dollars so its pretty good.

JohnP · Post by **JohnP** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:26 am

Some interesting MDC historical ADP from 2007....

Rollins 23

H Ram 27

Fielder 67

Phillips 91

Byrnes 146

Hart 292

Tulo 320

A Hill 432

Lincecum 435

What a difference a year makes...

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:42 am

IMHO, i played in an NL auction league from 1992 to 2002, then a very competitive 14 team "home" league for the last five years. i italicize home because we did on the net and i personally knew only three owners. there were owners from del, conn, mich, ky, ala, ind, and cal. the league had different rules than NFBC.ie...trades, daily lineup changes, etc. this is my first year in the NFBC, with plans of going to "the show" next year, probably chicago or florida. i'm doing a couple sat leagues this year mainly to adjust to the different rules the NFBC has in place. i'm not concerned about the draft as much as adjusting to the weekly lineups and the FAAB. i agree with some of the other statements about good players in home leagues that don't have the time or money to go to "the show". not to mention a lot of players don't even know about the NFBC. i'm sure the biggest reason players can't participate in "the show" is $$$. MOMMY probably has some sayso on how DADDY spends the vacation money.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 6:17 am

I agree that some "home" leagues can be very good, I played in one that went on for 10+ years and it was very competitive. I think the biggest difference for me in the NFBC was the lack of trading, you can fix a lot of problems with a trade now and then but then again, there are always the "Trader Jacks" that clean up on some poor schmuck that is not on top of the latest scoop.

That brings up the other big thing I noticed in the NFBC, you snooze, you loose on free agents. In home or Yahoo leagues you can watch a guy for awhile before deciding if you want to pick him up or not, that is not the case in the NFBC, if you think you want someone, you had better put some FAAB dollars out there quick and go after him because you can count on the fact that the other members of your league are after him too. Everything happens so much quicker in the NFBC.

Having said that, players in the NFBC for the most part are very patient and are not usually going to drop a guy after a bad week or two, they hang on to him because they know what he has done, what he can do in the future.

That is the beauty of NFBC, the quality and quantity of competition and the fact that you can sleep soundly knowing that the league is run professionally and fairly and that if you are good enough to win, that you will be paid honestly and quickly when the season ends.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 11:14 am

Listen..I completely agree that this league is far tougher and thats why I love it..I'm just sayin not to discount other leagues just cause they arent the NFBC...just remember we all came from some other league before we came here...

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Mon Feb 11, 2008 3:02 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

.

Mark, taking from your last post would this be a fair assessment as to level of play?

Home Leagues - A-AA

Yahoo, ESPN - AA

Satelite Leagues - AA-AAA

NFBC Main - The Bigs

How would you classify magazine mocks and "expert" drafts such as Tout Wars, etc? Home leagues - A

Yahoo/ESPN - A

Low entry fee NFBC satellites - AA

Magazine - AA/AAA

High entry fee NFBC satellites - AAA

NFBC Main - The Bigs

Tout Wars I don't know much about.what's the entry fee, prizes, barriers to entry, etc...If I had to make an uneducated guess, I'd probably say AA or PCL AAA for hitters [/QUOTE]Personally I have found:

Yahoo - High School

Espn - Used to be A when they charged, now they are free, High School

Home League - Everything from High School to AA or even AAA.

$125 Entry NFBC - AA

$250 Entry NFBC - AAA (draft wise, during year, play reverts to AA as only 6-7 are truley active)

I haven't been in 500-1000 but, I would guess AAA to MLB Kansas City

Main Events and Live Auctions: Major League

I am guessing Ultimate: American League East

Regards

Spy

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:12 pm

Good stuff, Spy!

"AL East!"

~Lance