NFBC Message Boards

We're happy to welcome our good friend Ron Shandler from BaseballHQ.com to our NFBC message boards for an hour-long chat today at 2 p.m. ET. Ron is one of the most respected figures in the fantasy baseball industry and his insight and analysis is always top notch. So post your questions for Ron in this thread and we'll have some fun this afternoon.

Hi Ron



Wondering about your "home area team" (not your Mets). Do you think Milledge starts the year in CF?



Any local info on the new ballpark? I have seen the measurements and they don't look much different than RFK although I understand the fench will be shorter. How do you think the new stadium will play for power vs the old one?

Ron-

Since we are talking Nationals, how about good ol' Wily Mo? If he's a regular, how does the new park affect his power and avg (or lack thereof)?

To the honorable Ron Shandler. (full bow)! I’m a big fan of your Baseball Forecaster and Baseball HQ. I think the LIMA strategy was awesome for it’s time. Your insights lead the industry. However like all, I do have questions. The Protfolio3 plan is based on

your reliability scores. This has been a bone of contention even on your web site chat.

I saw that you addressed this in an article. You stated that the reliability scores were backward looking only. So without any projection in reliability wouldn’t that make them useless? You brought up A-Rod who would not qualify for a Tier 1 group based on his unreliability (Score 52). But you have Aramis Ramirez as a Tier 1 reliability (Score 89).

I think most of us know that A. Ramires finished with around 500 at bats due to injury 2 of the last three years. Based on that alone I’d think the Portfolio 3 plan is flawed. As always looking forward to your comments.

Ron,

A lot of people, at the time, thought that your book may be too comprehensive and have jargon that common fantasy baseballers wouldn't understand. Now that it has become the standard, what do we have to look forward to in the future?

My feeling is that simple gb/fb stats will be replaced by MPH off of the bat, trajectory, and distance. As it would be a lot more informational to see how far and how hard a fly ball or ground ball is hit rather than just lump them all in the same category.

Do you forsee your book putting out this kind of information in the future? And if not, do you know of anyone compiling this type of information?



[ February 21, 2008, 11:06 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Ron,

If you had the 2nd overall pick in a 5x5 roto draft and AROD went 1st, who do you take? I think part of the problem with this is the extreme dropoff at SS after the big 3 (Rollins, Reyes, Hanley).. makes it tough to pick a David Wright or Matt Holliday. Do you think Hanley stays healthy all year? And if so, will he put up similar or greater numbers to last year?

Thank you.

oh, also, what do you think about Johan Santana this year? Would you draft him top 5? Or is SP that much more easily replaceable than hitting on the waiver wire?

Ron,

Out of the group below, which two would you like to own this year?

Justin Duchscherer

Jair Jurrjens

Micah Owings

Randy Wolf

Franklin Morales

David Bush

Ron, Is Albert Pujols still in your top 15?

Ron, Do you believe that a lot of doubles one year portends to more home runs the next? If so, what players would fall under this category for you?

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Ron,

Out of the group below, which two would you like to own this year?

Justin Duchscherer

Jair Jurrjens

Micah Owings

Randy Wolf

Franklin Morales

David Bush Ron, did anyone at the York, Pennsylvania First Pitch Symposium act out of turn or make too long of an NFBC sales pitch or ask any dumb questions that you can remember? Just asking because I'm hopeful that my customers are at their best behavior when they attend these First Pitch forums.



And feel free to let the folks know what the First Pitch schedule looks like for this year as I know you'll be coming up to balmy Chicago when I'm heading to Phoenix for the LABR drafts. I have a feeling some of our folks would like to attend these if they are in their area. Feel free to provide cost, times, etc.

Ron , love the baseball forecaster, great stuff.

Who do you think will take the Angels short stop job Aybar,Isturis, or wood. explain who,why.

PUT these pitchers in who you would take first in a 55 fantasy league.

Bonderman

Billingsley

McGowen

Liriano

thanks.

Ron,

Your thoughts on Jeremy Bonderman? Can he pull a Josh Beckett of a year ago, i.e. drafted in the double digit rounds and reward you with 4th/5th round production?

We have often read that excess innings on a young arm can lead to injury problems down the road. However, Brett Myers , after logging close to 180 innings per year at a young age has done the reverse. Because of his role in the pen last year he dropped to under 70 innings in 2007. What, if any, effect will this change have on him for the 2008 season? Will the lower total CATCH up with him later in the season?



Thanks, Ken Magner

Ron, 2 more questions:

1. What strategy do you think fits best in a 5x5 roto 15-team league regarding Catchers and Closers? Do you draft one or both early, or wait until later, or just take what you think is the best value at the time? For instance, there are very few impact catchers, and those who are at the top (Victor/Martin) certainly don't dominate, and their stats are usually considerably worse than the other players being drafted around them. But needing 2 catchers, does it make it worth it to take a shot at a top catcher in say the 2nd round?



For closers, a few like Nathan, Putz, and K-Rod are head and shoulders above the rest I think in that they put up good numbers, get saves, have very secure jobs, and are not old or injury-prone. Is it worth it to grab one of the elites around round 4, or merely wait until later and grab lesser closers and waiver wire some in-season?



2. Who do you think will be some MLB leaders in average? I know some of this is luck, but obviously you have some guys who year-in and year-out post high BA. We all know about Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Vlad, Ichiro, Pujols, Mauer, Magglio, Alou, Helton, David Wright, Chipper, Helton, Jeter, Utley, and Manny... any less well-known guys you expect to jump up? Maybe Howie Kendrick and Matt Diaz (but will he platoon?).. others?

Ron,

I buy your book but don't subscribe to the site. Can the changes through winter and spring training vastly alter your view (and projections)on players or does the last body of data ('07 regular season)carry say 95% of how you expect a player to perform in '08?



Am I missing some seismic shift (Shandler projection standards, non-injury related)in a player by not hitting the website ?

Ron, two interesting developments this week to talk about:



1. Since Albert Pujols talked about his sore elbow, his stock has fallen. This week in three separate NFBC pay satellite leagues, he went 10th, 12th and 16th? I know people have asked this already, but are we all over-reacting to this news? Does Pujols have enough protection in that sorry lineup to be first round worthy? Do you trust him to play 155+ games again this year.



2. Secondly, in the NFBC people can set their draft preferences and we slot them as they are randomly chosen. Recently, I've seen that the No. 2 spot is one of the last preferences for owners. It's obvious they don't want to make the choice on Hanley because of his shoulder, along with other things. Do you feel Hanley will be healthy for the start of the season and would you make him a Top 3 overall pick. If you could pick the ideal draft spot or location this year, what would it be?

Hey Ron!



Are there any platoon tandems (same team) that you could draft, and create a solid ONE out of two flawed hitters (weak vs. lefties, etc) depending on the following weeks pitching matchups (lefty to righty ratio)?



~Lance

Mr. Shandler, I have a spot in the 1300 AL Auction Draft league. If I signed you on as a co owner would you be willing to draft this team and run it? I'd be willing to sit back and watch. The winnings could go to you or a good cause. No tax problems for you and you could show your stuff.

How about it?

Ron - Your dollar values for 5x5 seem to weight batting average and stolen bases somewhat higher than I would expect. For example, you have a higher dollar value on Matt Kemp at $28 than you do for Prince Fielder at $27. Same for Chone Figgins $30 to David Ortiz at $28. In drafts, these lower dollar guys are being drafted in rounds 1 and 2 while the others are several rounds later. Are we NFBC'ers just not getting the value of these guys right or are your dollar values somewhat out of line?



Thanks,



Pete



[ February 21, 2008, 12:20 PM: Message edited by: Top Dawg ]

ron

utley, phillips, and upton are getting a lot of love this year (justifiably so), how do feel about rickie weeks having a breakout year (assuming he stays healthy) and putting up the numbers of his counterparts.

Ron,



Have you (or do you have plans to) contacted any of the "cream of the crop" high stakes fantasy baseball players who have proven successful on a consistent basis (vs. a public (not exclusive) competition) to add a "guest article" or more to be incorporated into your Forecaster publication? (Maybe dealing in 5X5 strategy or new developments/trends in baseball or category or position strengths/weaknesses that they may see that others do not.)



With the growth of high stakes fantasy sports (as opposed to local "Momma" leagues (is that right, GG?))...that may be a welcome addition for readers.



~Lance

Ron,



With rumors of a Brian Roberts trade...assuming they downgrade their leadoff man in BAL...how much of a negative impact does that have on Markakis, who already lacks protection in that lineup?



~Lance

Removing statistics for a minute...



Are there specific "IT...THINGS" you look for when scouting live baseball...whether in person or on TV...that gives you confidence or worry in a hitter or pitcher? (unproven players)



What would those "intangibles" be that don't show up in boxscores? (Dipping of head, off balance, unkind strain on body due to unorthodox form...etc.)



~Lance

Hello all... I am getting started a little bit early because a) the queue is already long, and b) I am going to be running at about 50% this afternoon. Been flat out with the flu all week and want to take advantage of the few bursts of random energy I get. Pardon the pace, the occasional typos, etc. I'm typing on my laptop in bed...